A surge, not a tsunami, at the border

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May 12, 2023 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Bethany Irvine and Eli Okun

Presented by

PhRMA

X MARKS THE SPOT — The Congressional Budget Office dropped a new report this morning warning there is a “significant risk” that the government could run out of funds sometime in the first two weeks of June. If the cash holds out till June 15, however, quarterly tax receipts and new emergency measures would likely delay the cliff “through at least the end of July.” The agency recognized an “unusually high degree of uncertainty” in its estimate. More from Caitlin Emma and Jennifer Scholtes

MAKING MOVES — President JOE BIDEN nominated the World Bank’s ADRIANA KUGLER as a Federal Reserve governor and moved to elevate PHILIP JEFFERSON as vice chair, reported. Kugler, who is Colombian-American, would be the first Hispanic Fed governor if confirmed, Victoria Guida reports.

— Meanwhile, at the State Department, Secretary ANTONY BLINKEN announced the retirement of veteran diplomat WENDY SHERMAN, WSJ’s Vivian Salama reports. Now deputy secretary, Sherman handled North Korea policy under President BILL CLINTON, Iran under BARACK OBAMA and China under Biden.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Police monitor as migrants from a group of 50, who were chosen by the Mexican

Fears of an unprecedented influx of migrants did not immediately materialize in the hours after the expiration of Title 42, the pandemic-era protocol that allowed the U.S. to turn back most asylum-seekers at the southern border. | AP

TITLE 42 FALLOUT — Fears of an unprecedented influx of migrants did not immediately materialize in the hours after the expiration of Title 42, the pandemic-era protocol that allowed the U.S. to turn back most asylum-seekers at the southern border.

While there was a surge in illegal border crossings reported earlier in the week, NYT’s Eileen Sullivan reports from El Paso, Texas, that “[f]ewer than 10,000 migrants were caught crossing the border on Thursday, during Title 42’s final hours.” NYT’s Jack Healy, meanwhile, reports an even quieter scene at a border-wall gap in Yuma, Ariz.

On a White House call with reporters this morning, Homeland Security official BLAS NUÑEZ-NETO said border officials “continue to encounter high levels of non-citizens at the border, but we did not see a substantial increase overnight or an influx at midnight,” WSJ’s Sabrina Siddiqui reports.

Still, officials are seeking to reassure the public that the administration is prepared for whatever may yet come. “Our plan is going to take some time to show results,” Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS told CBS this morning. “People are going to see our plan take hold and it will take time and it will succeed.”

Meanwhile, at the White House … Migration talks are likely to dominate Biden’s scheduled meeting with Spanish PM PEDRO SÁNCHEZ today, as the U.S., Spain and Canada team up to create migration hubs in Latin America for asylum seekers as part of the administration’s newly tightened immigration policies, AP’s Colleen Long reports. The agreement between the three nations is “meant to incentivize migrants to apply for asylum online where they are.”

And on the Hill … Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY has given Rep. DAN CRENSHAW (R-Texas) the go-ahead to lead a task force focused on battling Mexican drug cartels, Olivia Beavers scoops. The move comes after Crenshaw tangled with McCarthy over anti-cartel language in the immigration bill the House ended up passing yesterday. “Until now, Congress has not taken this threat seriously nor have we shown the American people that we have a plan to deal with these transnational criminal organizations,” Crenshaw said in a statement to Olivia.

For your radar HHS announced an unaccompanied Honduran migrant teen under the care of the Office of Refugee Resettlement died Wednesday at a Safety Harbor, Fla., shelter, CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez, Rosa Flores, Florencia Trucco and Rebekah Riess report. An investigation is underway.

Related reads: “Amid confusion along U.S.-Mexico border, El Paso pastors provide migrants with shelter and counsel,” by AP’s Giovanna Dell’orto … “Border Security Expo draws Homeland Security top brass as El Paso faces migration crisis,” by the El Paso Times’ Lauren Villagran … “Scenes from the U.S.-Mexico border amid expiration of Title 42,” by AP’s Anita Snow

Happy Friday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop us a line at birvine@politico.com and eokun@politico.com.

 

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THE DEBT LIMIT

THE OUTLINES OF A DEAL? — Rep. GARRET GRAVES (R-La.) has laid out to reporters four planks of a possible deal to raise the debt limit, perhaps inching toward a resolution, NBC’s Sahil Kapur, Scott Wong and Garrett Haake report.

  • Two of the four ideas seem like they’d be relatively easy for Democrats to swallow: (1) clawing back unspent Covid money and (2) pushing through energy permitting reform. (Of course, Democrats maintain officially that they’re not negotiating on anything for raising the debt ceiling.)
  • The other two would be a much heavier lift: (3) government spending caps and (4) stricter work requirements for social safety net programs.
  • Notably not among the four: unwinding the Inflation Reduction Act.

YELLEN WARNIN’ — “Yellen Says ‘We Have to Default’ on Something If Congress Fails,” by Bloomberg’s Christopher Condon and Annmarie Hordern

WHO’S AT DEFAULT — The defense industry would see massive pain this year if the U.S. slides into default on its debt, WSJ’s Doug Cameron and Matt Grossman report. Cuts to military spending would have a significant impact on the private-sector machinery of national security, while even a one-year continuing resolution “likely would inflate the costs of military programs, delay the launch of new ones and prevent production increases.”

CLICKER — “Think you can tame the national debt? Play our budget game,” by WaPo’s Szu Yu Chen, Chris Alcantara and Jeff Stein

2024 WATCH

HE’S RUNNING? — New Hampshire Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU tells WaPo’s Theo Meyer and Leigh Ann Caldwell that he’s “leaning towards” jumping into the presidential race, with a decision coming in about a month.

THIRD PARTY DREAMING — JOE LIEBERMAN tells Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser that No Labels will launch a nominating committee within the next couple of months to begin putting together possibilities for a centrist presidential ticket.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

THE BIGGEST ELECTION YOU'RE NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO —  After two decades in power, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN is facing what “is expected to be the closest race in the country’s recent electoral history,” Leyla Aksu reports. Expect results to start trickling in Sunday night.

 

DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

MORE POLITICS

FOLLOWING THE MONEY — After the LEONARD LEO-founded nonprofit Marble Freedom Trust got a staggering $1.6 billion gift from BARRE SEID, it has moved quickly to share the wealth, sloshing money around a variety of conservative causes. NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien reports that Marble has given away $183 million in just a year. It’s not clear where the money ultimately ended up, but $153.8 went to the Schwab Charitable Fund and $28.9 million went to the Concord Fund (née the Judicial Crisis Network). Leo says it’s an important effort to counter what has recently been larger Democratic dark-money spending; critics call it a slush fund.

BATTLE FOR THE SENATE — Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke has new details on Arizona Republican KARI LAKE’s Washington swing this week as she weighs a Senate run: Lake met with NRSC Chair STEVE DAINES (R-Mont.) for two hours. She also talked with Sens. JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), TOMMY TUBERVILLE (R-Ala.) and J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio).

POLICY CORNER

POWER PLAY — Utilities are warning that the EPA’s new greenhouse gas rule could lead to power outages if coal and gas plants have to shut down quickly without replacements, Catherine Morehouse reports. But former regulators say utilities are overstating the concern — and that climate change poses the greatest threat to the grid.

AFTER THE PANDEMIC — “Federal government’s $1 billion effort to recruit next generation of doctors at risk,” by AP’s Amanda Seitz in Salisbury, Md.: “Over the last three years, millions of taxpayer dollars were pumped into the National Health Service Corps to hire thousands more doctors and nurses willing to serve the country’s most desperate regions during the COVID-19 pandemic in exchange for forgiving medical school debts. Now, with the health emergency over, the program’s expansion is in jeopardy.”

DIPPING INTO CHIPS — “Commerce Department starts process to fund tech hubs across the U.S. with $500 million in grants,” by AP’s Josh Boak

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 

WAR IN UKRAINE

PREPARING FOR THE WORST — The U.S. is helping to install sensors in Ukraine “that can detect‌‌ bursts of radiation from a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb and can confirm the identity of the attacker,” NYT’s William Broad reports.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE — Despite U.S. entreaties, Egypt is refusing to close its airspace to Russian military planes, giving Moscow easier access to get weapons from Syria to Ukraine, WSJ’s Summer Said and Jared Malsin scoop. The flights over Egyptian airspace have stepped up in recent weeks.

SANCTIONS STRUGGLE — “The U.S. is having trouble cutting Russia off from computer chips,” by Semafor’s Jay Solomon: There are “six sanctions evasion schemes Washington believes the Kremlin is using to acquire semiconductors and other electronics central to Russia’s production of the guidance systems for its missiles, drones, tanks, and other military hardware.”

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

WHAT CORY BOOKER IS WATCHING — “Could the Government Help End Intergenerational Poverty With $3,500 for Each Child?” by WSJ’s Brenda León: “So-called baby bonds have been discussed in at least eight states and lawmakers have approved programs in Washington, D.C., Connecticut and California. … Officials nationwide are paying close attention.”

VALLEY TALK 

IT’S OFFICIAL — ELON MUSK has picked LINDA YACCARINO from NBC Universal to lead Twitter as its new chief executive, with NBC having announced her departure today, WaPo’s Faiz Siddiqui and Sarah Ellison report.

PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.) and Terry McAuliffe dining at Xiquet last night.

OUT AND ABOUT — DC Safari Club International held its annual conservation dinner and auction last night on the rooftop of 101 Constitution Ave. after a four-year hiatus, featuring Rep. Aaron Bean (R-Fla.) as the auctioneer (which he’s done part time professionally). Items included hunting trips to Spain, Argentina, Ireland and South Africa and raised almost $100,000. SPOTTED: Reps. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.), David Rouser (R-N.C.), Bruce Westerman (R-Ark.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) and Ronny Jackson (R-Texas), Ben Cassidy, Ed Byers, Taylor Gross, Justin Peterson, Andrew Kovalcin, Hunter Moorhead, Kenny Hodge, Jason Ouimet, Dawson Hobbs, Kip Eideberg, Jared Michael, Michael Brairton, Graham Hill, Phil Hoon, Nick Swezey, Brian Calabrese, Bradley Hayes, Chase Kroll and Michael Formica.

— SPOTTED at a Thompson/Bush HHS reunion at the Capitol Hill Club yesterday: Tommy Thompson, Scott Gottlieb, Anthony Fauci, Andy von Eschenbach, Alex Azar, Mark Green, Andrew Bremberg, Josh Bolten, Reince Preibus, Reps. Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.), and Scott Fitzgerald (R-Wis.), Kevin Keane, Bob Wood, Dave Boyer, Tom Scully, Michael Reilly, Demetrios Kouzoukas, Pam Stevens, Craig Stevens, Jennifer Young, Richard Parker, Leslie Norwalk and Ben Domenech.

Comcast NBCUniversal, MSNBC and the Asian Pacific American Institute for Congressional Studies hosted a special screening of MSNBC’s “The Culture Is: AAPI Women” yesterday evening at the Motion Picture Association hosted by Katie Phang in celebration of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month. SPOTTED: Reps. Grace Meng (D-N.Y.) and Judy Chu (D-Calif.), Rashida Jones, Huma Abedin, Madalene Mielke, Amanda Nguyen, Richard Lui, Jonathan Capehart and Nick Schmit, Phil Tahtakran, Emma Carrasco, Lorie Acio, Diana Hwang, Joon Kim, Linda Shim, Dan Koh, Tejasi Thatte, Namrata Mujumdar, Catalina Tam, Kris Schneider, Opal Vadhan, Annie Yu, Naomi Zeigler and Nadia Belkin.

Actress and anti-sexual violence advocate Ashley Judd attended a Polaris event celebrating the launch of a new Resilience Fund at the Madison Hotel on Wednesday evening. SPOTTED: Muftiah McCartin, Bill Wichterman, Roy Austin, Frederick Reynolds, Ravi Satkalmi, Jay Brown and Skiffington Holderness.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Sophia Brill is now associate counsel at the White House. She most recently was senior counsel in the national security division at the Department of Justice.

TRANSITION — Caitlin Meloski is now senior adviser for the deputy Treasury secretary. She most recently was adviser to the director of the National Economic Council.

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