Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! PENSION DRAMA — The country’s finance ministers meet virtually today as Alberta presses Ottawa with the very high-stakes prospect of leaving the Canada Pension Plan. Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH has touted splitting from the CPP as a “fairer” option for Albertans, after a study commissioned by the province suggested an initial savings of upwards of C$5 billion by moving money out of it — a disputed number, but not an issue for Smith. — Political pen-upmanship: Sparks flew this week in the lead-up to the meeting via a testy exchange of … letters. Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND wrote to Smith dismissing the notion that Albertans would pay less in pension contributions under a provincial plan, calling the math “flawed” and the project a “costly and irreversible mistake.” — Alberta vs. rest of Canada: All eyes on what Alberta Fin. Min. NATE HORNER has to say about the meeting, not to mention his provincial counterparts, as they lay their cards on the table. “I would not want to be Nate Horner walking into this meeting because Alberta is going to be on an island,” Mount Royal University poli sci prof. DUANE BRATT tells Playbook. “Typically, when you have these sorts of ministerial meetings, there are allies that provincial governments have. But the typical allies that Alberta has, like the DOUG FORD [Ontario] government, or the SCOTT MOE [Saskatchewan] government, they don't have on this file.” — Where the fight will be: Over the 53 percent number. That’s how much Alberta would get from the CPP’s base assets, according to the big-deal controversial report. — Sticking-point surprise: The carbon tax will also be a key issue at the meet, an issue those provinces can rally around, as Moe vowed Thursday his Finance Minister DONNA HARPAUER will raise it “whether it’s on Minister Freeland’s agenda or not.” The idea of an independent Alberta plan has been around for a long time but, Bratt notes in the Globe, tends to only seriously flare up when the Liberals run Ottawa. Smith raised the pension issue during her leadership bid but did not during the election campaign, and has her work cut out in convincing the public. “It remains mind boggling to me why Smith is pursuing this, why she is exerting so much political capital on an issue that is deeply unpopular, and has been deeply unpopular for 20 years,” Bratt said. — The up spin: Conservative pundit ERIKA BAROOTES, who used to work in the premier’s office, is launching an Alberta insiders podcast called The Discourse with former NDP Premier RACHEL NOTLEY staffer CHERYL OATES later today that will tackle the APP/CPP dispute. “This is coming at a time where there's a lot of angst and frustration with Ottawa,” Barootes tells Playbook. “Having a conversation around fairness, around one-size-does-not-fit-all for each jurisdiction, the missteps and the dumpster fire of the Liberal government right now, is a strategy she can leverage in her ongoing unity with other leaders on things like the clean electricity regs and the carbon tax.” She said it’s fair to call for a meeting like this to get feedback and there’s political opportunity for Smith if the issue is handled properly, although there's a long way to go for Albertans to “truly understand what an Alberta pension plan would mean for them.” — The timeline: Alberta gets feedback from the public through an online survey and town halls due by May 2024. If the issue remains on the table, the province could face a referendum as early as 2025 — and linger in the air during the next federal election. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has urged Alberta to remain in the CPP, but pins the blame on Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU for sparking this whole thing by “attacking the Alberta economy.” — The down spin: Shakti Strategies principal SABRINA GROVER said while the issue plays to the feeling among Smith’s base that the province needs to be “sticking it to Ottawa” for not being treated fairly as a major economic contributor, it’s “not a winner” and an easy gimme for the federal Liberals. They’ll want to engage on it to boost their support outside of Alberta “because it reinforces the stability of people's pensions” and shows them “standing up for seniors.” — Watch for: A potential revival of talking points surrounding the AIMco scandal, when the provincial public pension manager lost some C$2.1 billion in the market. | 
