| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → A big day for CHRYSTIA FREELAND. We tell you what's in the Fall Economic Statement. → New inflation data from Statistics Canada drops this morning. Read what economists are saying. → Senators resume debate on a potential carbon tax carve-out. The story behind the story. |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | |  Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland at a G7 finance meeting in Japan last May. | AP | Today delivers a triple-whammy: CHRYSTIA FREELAND's Fall Economic Statement, Statistics Canada's new inflation data and the Senate's fight over Bill C-234. FES WATCH — The strategically leaked contours of Freeland's fourth FES are clear: housing, affordability and spending restraint are supposed to define the annual exercise in fiscal and economic forecasting, described by a government official as "tight and focused" on key priorities. "This is not a mini-budget," said the official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the contents of the document. — What's in it for housing: The minister plans to discourage homeowners from renting out their places as short-term rentals (aka Airbnbs and Vrbos). Freeland has been hinting at this for weeks. CBC says there’s more for housing: C$15 billion for loans that cover rental construction, another billion bucks for affordable housing, and tweaked mortgage rules for homeowners at risk. The Canadian Press reported the FES will include a new Canadian mortgage charter that will outline what Canadians can expect from their financial institutions. A recent Nanos poll called homeowners "jittery" about renewals given the elevated state of interest rates. — Tax credits: In a midmonth speech teeing up the FES, Freeland namechecked billions in long-planned clean tech tax credits. No surprise that Reuters business reporter STEVE SCHERER scored the government's leaked commitment to setting out timelines for carbon capture and clean tech subsidies. Investors were getting antsy, so Freeland is attempting to offer certainty. — Drip, drip, drip: Details of the FES have been leaking for days. On Monday, the official confirmed to Playbook that housing measures and tax credits would be in the FES. — The fiscal pivot: "We can do this because our economic plan is fiscally responsible," Freeland said in the Nov. 15 speech, to the harrumphing of Conservatives begging for an end to deficits. — The rankings: It wasn't a Freeland speech until the favorable global comparisons that burnish the government's fiscal cred. (Listen for those today, too.) "Since the depths of the pandemic, Canada has had the fastest rate of fiscal consolidation in the G7," she said. "This means we have brought down our deficits faster than any of our G7 peers. We also maintain both the lowest deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio in the G7, which is central to our AAA credit rating." — The fiscal anchor, circa Budget 2023: "Reducing federal debt as a share of the economy over the medium-term." — Flip to the tables: Desjardins economist RANDALL BARTLETT acknowledged to clients Canada's strong position relative to its peers, but he recently observed the fiscal picture is worsening thanks to the government's penchant for increased spending. "This worsening deficit and debt profile is entirely the result of ever higher spending, with each new fiscal document outlining an expenditure track that is higher than the one before," Bartlett wrote in a piece that backhandedly compliments Canada as the "cleanest dirty shirt in the fiscal laundry basket."
|  Desjardins has tracked federal spending commitments since 2019 | Graph courtesy of Desjardins Economics |
— Pharma-what? As negotiations between Liberals and New Democrats carry on behind closed doors, there's little pre-FES chatter about where a billion-dollar universal pharmacare program could fit into the federal fiscal framework.
Maybe next spring, if the Liberal-NDP governing deal lasts that long. — In related reading: MURRAY BREWSTER of CBC News reports: Liberal defence policy hits a fiscal wall. — Playbook prognostication: Submit your best guesses at these consequential FES projections (and, in some cases, random trivia). Whoever is closest gets their name in Playbook. → The page count (excluding covers) → Number of people on the cover → First letter of the first name of the first "everyday Canadian" make-believe case study — what they call "typicals" in the marketing jargon → Debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024-25 → Public debt charges in 2024-25 → Annual deficit (or surplus) in 2027-28 | | | | A message from Amazon: Did you know more than 41,000 Canadian selling partners sell in the Amazon Canada store, including many small businesses? In 2021, Amazon’s Canadian selling partners sold more than 100 million products (more than 200 products every minute). Canadian entrepreneurs thriving in Amazon’s store include women, families, and artisans. Learn their stories, and discover how Amazon is inventing on their behalf with powerful and cost-effective tools and services to support their business growth. | | |
INFLATION WATCH — Inboxes will ping at 8:30 a.m. with this month's round of consumer price index data. Political spinners will scroll directly to year-over-year inflation, which is likely to flirt with the upper limit of the Bank of Canada's 1-3 percent target range.
— Prediction watch: BMO, 3.3 percent; CIBC, 3 percent; RBC, 3.1 percent; The talking points are as predictable as the syndicated sitcom you quote by heart (everybody has one). If inflation slows to 3 percent, Freeland and the Liberals will emphasize the encouraging trend and package it with their suite of "affordability" measures. PIERRE POILIEVRE and the Conservatives will dig deeper into the report. — Mortgage pain: Even if price growth slows on everyday purchases like gas and groceries, most economists agree that mortgages are causing the most pain. "A 31 percent year-over-year spike in mortgage interest costs is now the leading driver of inflation in Canada," BMO's SAL GUATIERI and SHELLY KAUSHIK wrote in a preview of today's data drop. "Meantime, softer home prices haven’t curbed rents, as investors try to recoup rising credit costs and as torrid population growth fans demand." BMO's bottomline: "There’s little relief from shelter costs whether you rent or own a home." If those numbers hold, they're catnip for Poilievre's mantra on the punishing cost of living. CARVE-OUT WATCH — Senators will this afternoon debate Bill C-234, the Conservative private member's bill that stalled at third reading in the chamber earlier this month. C-234 would take the federal carbon levy off natural gas and propane used for drying grain and for heating and cooling barns and greenhouses. Winter is coming and costs are rising. Farmers and ranchers say they're desperate to see the legislation become law. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has pledged a halt to carbon tax carve-outs, raising speculation that he'd be forced to quit on principle if C-234 gets royal assent. Guilbeault has also downplayed the impact of the bill, arguing the levy has already been removed from fuels responsible for 97 percent of on-farm emissions. (The ag lobby says natural gas and propane account for 14.9 percent of total ag emissions, citing government data.) — Current status: C-234 could've come to a vote on Nov. 9, but didn't. Instead, Sen. LUCIE MONCION moved an amendment that would, if passed, alter the bill enough to send it back to the House. The amendment would reduce the eight-year sunset period on the tax exemption. Sen. BERNADETTE CLEMENT then moved a motion to adjourn debate to today's sitting. That motion passed. The bill's biggest proponents claimed Clement’s delay tactic was part of a broader effort to stall the bill's progress. She vehemently denied those accusations, posting on X that her intent was to make time for senators who weren't in the room to speak to the bill. "There is no story here, no secret agenda," she wrote, adding that she'd received threats to her safety. C-234 now faces two paths. → The easy way: Senators could reject Moncion's amendment, pass the bill at third reading and send it for the governor general's signature. Royal assent would follow soon after. → The hard way: Senators could vote for Moncion's amendment and then approve the full bill, which would give the House another shot at considering C-234. — The X-factor: Bums in seats. The Senate is not a hybrid chamber. DAVE CAREY, the vice president of government and industry relations at the Canadian Canola Growers Association, will be watching closely to see who shows up. When senators voted down a committee report on C-234, 73 senators were in the chamber — 42 weighed in against the report, 28 were in favor, and three abstained. The vote to delay debate until today passed 29-24, with 41 senators failing to cast a vote. — New math: The denominator on Senate votes will change today when four new senators are sworn-in, reducing the number of vacant seats to seven. The new faces are KRISTA ROSS, JOAN KINGSTON, JOHN MCNAIR and RÉJEAN AUCOIN. Ninety-eight votes are up for grabs whenever C-234 comes to a vote, but the turnout will likely be lower. | |
THE ROAD TO COP28 — The U.N. climate summit arrives in a year that shattered temperature records and saw a wave of climate disasters, all while economic leaders grappled with the challenges of energy security.
This year’s gathering, which starts Nov. 30 in Dubai, will conclude the first assessment of what countries have achieved since signing the Paris accord in 2015. POLITICO has created a special report on the forces shaping the climate conversation. Some required reading ahead of COP: — The state of the planet in 10 numbers. — Anti-green backlash hovers over COP climate talks. — Who’s who at COP28. — Who wants what out of the climate summit. — Eight years after Paris, the oil business is bigger than ever. | | | | A message from Amazon:   | | | | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa. He'll chair the Cabinet meeting and attend question period.
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa, where she'll deliver the Fall Economic Statement around 4 p.m. 9 a.m. International Trade Minister MARY NG and Ukrainian Ambassador YULIYA KOVALIV will be in Toronto for a two-day event hosted by the Canada-Ukraine Chamber of Commerce. 11 a.m. Partisan fireworks watch: National Capital Commission CEO TOBI NUSSBAUM is at the House public accounts committee. On the agenda: that C$8 million Rideau Hall storage building the Tories love to hate. 12 p.m. Tory MP JOHN BARLOW, the party's critic for agriculture, will hold a media availability before the Senate takes up debate on Bill C-234 — which could take the carbon tax off certain farming activities. 12:15 p.m. NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak at the 2023 Federation of Canadian Municipalities meeting. 6 p.m. Trudeau, a noted Ottawa-Vanier resident, headlines a top-dollar, post-FES party fundraiser across town at the Brookstreet Hotel in suburban Kanata. Families Minister/Kanata-Carleton MP JENNA SUDDS and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will join the prime minister. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The talker of the day: Refinery29's most recent “Money diaries,” featuring an unnamed 23-year-old comms adviser on the Hill who earns $57,258 a year — that's C$78,538.79 — and pays union dues.
— Top of POLITICO this hour: Humanitarian groups tell White House ceasefire is only viable aid option. — The Globe’s ROBERT FIFE is on The Decibel this morning to discuss the latest twist in the story of MICHAEL SPAVOR and MICHAEL KOVRIG. — PRESTON MANNING mistakenly cc'd Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL on an email to Alberta Conservative MPs about the provincial Covid review panel he chaired. Manning pushed for a "closer practical relationship" between the CPC and Alberta's United Conservatives — a call for unity the Liberals will surely try to weaponize against the Tories. — From POLITICO’s ALEX KEENEY: Why are politicians acting like influencers? — The Star’s RAISA PATEL looks at bureaucratic red tape blocking the government’s online harms bill. — The NYT’s NATE COHN takes a deep dive into the “crisis” facing issue polling in the U.S. “Pollsters are trying to figure out what’s driving the behavior of voters, and that’s a different and more challenging question than simply measuring whom they’ll vote for or what they believe.” | | PROZONE | |
Our latest policy newsletter for POLITICO Pro subscribers: A case for less in the FES.
In other news for Pro subscribers: — Musk sues Media Matters as advertising exodus continues. — Washington watches as West Coast nerds fight for future of AI. — Unions notch AI protections for workers. — U.S. Supreme Court books hearing in Chevron doctrine showdown. — Airlines are gearing up what could be the busiest Thanksgiving travel period in U.S. history. | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to former MP DENISE SAVOIE (80!) and NICK SIBBESTON (80, too!), former senator and Northwest Territories premier. Belated HBD to Microsoft's KATE PURCHASE. Send us birthdays: ottawaplaybook@politico.com Spotted: MPs ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER, MELISSA LANTSMAN, MARCO MENDICINO, MARTY MORANTZ and MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER in Israel. U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN, hosting House Speaker GREG FERGUS at Lornado: “I look forward to working together on Parliamentary-Congressional diplomacy.” Dates and locations for the 2024 U.S. presidential debates. J.D.M. STEWART, sharing details of a new book deal: “The first history of Canada's prime ministers in 25 years!” MP RYAN TURNBULL, taking time in the House to wish his wife SUZE a happy birthday. “In just a few weeks, our family will welcome our second child, a little girl, into the world,” he told his colleagues in the Commons. Recognized: On Monday, the speaker celebrated House employees for their years of service — a few individuals also received thanks during QP: — Liberal MP SEAN CASEY celebrated CORINNE REID from his Charlottetown office. “I liken her to a swan: The public sees what is above the water, which is graceful, poised and serene, while below the water her feet are moving madly in multiple directions at any time.” — Conservative MP MARTIN SHIELDS recognized KAREN KALLEN, “for 30 years of service to three MPs and thousands of constituents.” — Indy MP KEVIN VUONG told the House about the “monumental” service of GLENN BRADBURY, who started on the Hill in 1987. “Five MPs, a former minister of foreign affairs and one current Cabinet minister have worked with him.” Movers and shakers: DIANA EBADI has joined Defense Minister BILL BLAIR’s office as press secretary and communications adviser … KENNETH MACKILLOP will take the helm as secretary to Governor General MARY SIMON next week. MacKillop is currently associate deputy minister at veterans affairs. Liberal MP HEATH MACDONALD, elected the new chair of the House public safety committee after Liberal MP RON MCKINNON resigned before the constituency break, citing a need to step away to get knee surgery … Tory MP GLEN MOTZ, cracking a joke before the quick vote on the rule that the chair has to be a member of the government and nominating NDP MP PETER JULIAN for the job in jest. Media mentions: DHRITI GUPTA is The Walrus’ new Chawkers Foundation fellow. Cocktail circuit: At 5 p.m., the Chamber for Marine Commerce is holding a reception at the Met … The Federation for Canadian Municipalities holding its own soiree at the National Arts Centre at 5:30 p.m. RSVP here … At the same time, VIA Rail's new president and CEO, MARIO PÉLOQUIN, is holding court at Room 310 in Wellington Building. (Enter off Sparks.) | | | | A message from Amazon: Did you know more than 41,000 Canadian selling partners sell in the Amazon Canada store, including many small businesses?
In 2021, Amazon’s Canadian selling partners sold more than 100 million products (more than 200 products every minute).
It takes a lot to run a small business. Canadian entrepreneurs thriving in Amazon’s store include women, families, and artisans. Learn their stories, and discover how Amazon is inventing on their behalf with powerful and cost-effective tools and services to support their business growth. | | | | | AROUND THE HILL | |
9 a.m. The Senate Indigenous peoples committee will meet to study the Canadian human rights framework.
9 a.m. FRANK POPE, the mayor of the town of Norman Wells in the Northwest Territories, will be at the Senate transport and communications committee as part of a study on the impacts of climate change on critical infrastructure. 9 a.m. The Senate national finance committee will study Bill C-241, Conservative MP CHRIS LEWIS’ private member’s legislation to amend the Income Tax Act to allow for the dedication of travel expenses for tradespersons. 10 a.m. The House foreign affairs committee’s subcommittee on international human rights will hear from Ukraine’s Prosecutor General ANDRIY KOSTIN in relation to its study on the unlawful transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia. The second panel will move on to a study on international disability-inclusive education. 10 a.m. The Senate rules, procedures and the rights of Parliament committee will meet to hear from Senate national finance committee chair, Sen. Percy Mockler, as part of its study on committee structure and mandates. 11 a.m. The House international committee will meet to continue its study of Bill C-57, the government’s legislation to implement the updated Canada-Ukraine free-trade agreement. 11 a.m. National Capital Commission CEO TOBI NUSSBAUM will be a witness at the House public accounts committee, taking questions about a multi-million dollar Rideau Hall storage building. 11 a.m. The House environment committee will meet to continue its study on freshwater. 12 p.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee will meet to begin its study on illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. 1 p.m. Conservative MP GARNETT GENUIS hosts a reception in the Valour Building with Assembly of the Cuban Resistance member ORLANDO GUTIÉRREZ-BORONAT. Topics include Russia, Communist “creep” and Canada’s role in supporting the Cuban people. “An assortment of Cuban sandwiches and arepas will be served,” the advisory notes. 3:30 p.m. The House industry committee will meet to discuss a request to discuss Stellantis-LG's new battery manufacturing facility in Windsor, Ontario. 4 p.m. Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will introduce the government’s Fall Economic Statement in the House. 6:30 p.m. The special joint committee on medical assistance in dying (MAiD) will meet to discuss follow-up on the 13th recommendation made in its second report on MAiD. 6:30 p.m. The Senate energy committee will meet to study Bill S-241. Behind the scenes: The House heritage committee will continue discussing its report on safe sport in Canada; the special joint committee on the declaration of emergency meets to talk about “committee business.” | | TRIVIA | |
Monday’s answer: WILFRID LAURIER is the MP with the all-time longest continuous service. Sir Wilfrid Laurier Day is observed each Nov. 20, his birth date.
Props to BRANDON RABIDEAU, MATT DELISLE, JOSEPH PLANTA, PATRICK ST-JACQUES, BOB GORDON, JIM CAMPBELL, CAMERON RYAN, KEVIN BOSCH, JOSEPH PLANTA, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, J.D.M. STEWART, NATHANIEL GORDON, BLAKE JOHNSTON and GORDON RANDALL. Have another just as hard? Send it our way. Today’s question: “The story of ______________________ is one of resilience, determination and strength in the face of adversity. Acknowledging the experiences of these brave men and promoting their legacy is an important step in reconciling past wrongs.” Who was Defense Minister BILL BLAIR talking about during a funding announcement last week? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Emma Anderson. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
