| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | | |  The Congressional Budget Office delivered Speaker Mike Johnson a tough report on his proposed Israel aid bill. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | CBO GIVES GOP HARSH REPORT — Speaker MIKE JOHNSON’s proposed Israel aid bill got its Congressional Budget Office assessment last night, and the report card isn’t a good sign for House Republicans. “The nonpartisan budget scorekeeper said the bill, which Republicans aimed to offset with spending cuts, would increase the federal deficit by $12.5 billion over the next decade,” Katherine Tully-McManus writes. “Johnson's bill aims to pay for the assistance to Israel with $14.5 billion in cuts to the IRS, which has struggled with understaffing. The CBO’s calculations show that the cuts to the IRS would hamper the nation’s balance sheet and decrease revenue by $26.7 billion.” Needless to say: “The House bill, with the IRS cuts and no Ukraine aid, will hit a brick wall in the Senate.” BANKING ON IT — Speaking of the newly installed speaker, The Daily Beast’s Roger Sollenberger has a fascinating look into the financial fitness of the Louisiana Republican, finding that he essentially … doesn’t appear to have a bank account? “At least, that’s what Johnson reports on years of personal financial disclosures, which date back to 2016 and reveal a financial life that, in the context of his role as a congressman and now speaker, appears extraordinarily precarious,” Sollenberger reports. “Over the course of seven years, Johnson has never reported a checking or savings account in his name, nor in the name of his wife or any of his children, disclosures show. In fact, he doesn’t appear to have money stashed in any investments, with his latest filing — covering 2022 — showing no assets whatsoever. “Of course, it’s unlikely Johnson doesn’t actually have a bank account. What’s more likely is Johnson lives paycheck to paycheck — so much so that he doesn’t have enough money in his bank account to trigger the checking account disclosure rules for members of Congress.” FWIW: “House Ethics Committee filing guidelines state that members must disclose bank accounts they have at every financial institution, as long as the account holds at least $1,000 and the combined value of all accounts — including those belonging to their spouse and dependent children — exceeds $5,000.” And as Johnson continues to burnish his fundraising bonafides ahead of a critical election year for the House GOP, he is set to rub shoulders with donors to one of the conference’s wealthiest members, our colleague Olivia Beavers reports. “Rep. VERN BUCHANAN (R-Fla.) will host the event at his Longboat Key, Fla., mansion this month with the aim of benefiting Johnson's joint fundraising committee. Donors can pay up to $25,000 per person for a private dinner or the lowest price of $1,000 to attend the reception with some middle-tier options in between, according to a copy of the invite.” More Johnson reads:
- “Democrats quickly seek to make Speaker Johnson a boogeyman,” by WaPo’s Tyler Pager, Michael Scherer and Marianna Sotomayor: “Members of both parties said it could be a challenge for Democrats to turn Johnson into a figure who prompts enough impassioned dislike among voters to make him an effective boogeyman. He rose to the speakership with the lowest profile in recent memory, having been elected to Congress only in 2016.”
- “Before he became a politician, House Speaker Mike Johnson partnered with an anti-gay conversion therapy group,” by CNN’s Andrew Kaczynski: “Johnson, a lawyer, gave legal advice to an organization called Exodus International and partnered with the group to put on an annual anti-gay event aimed at teens, according to a CNN KFile review of more than a dozen of Johnson’s media appearances from that timespan. … The group shut down in 2013, with its founder posting a public apology for the ‘pain and hurt’ his organization caused. Conversion therapy has been widely condemned by most major medical institutions and has been shown to be harmful to struggling LGBTQ people.”
BUSTING THE BLOCKADE — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is preparing a move that could get around Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s (R-Ala.) hold on a host of military nominations. Schumer this morning announced his support of a resolution crafted by Sens. JACK REED (D-R.I.) and KYRSTEN SINEMA (I-Ariz.) to confirm military promotions as a bloc, effectively bypassing Tuberville’s monthslong blockade. Though Schumer didn’t state any specifics on the timing, he said he would bring the resolution to the floor once it passes the Rules Committee. The floor vote will still require 60 votes, but the expectation is that a number of Republicans who have bemoaned Tuberville’s position will join the effort. More from Burgess Everett Good Wednesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line: gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Amway: Partnership. Integrity. Personal worth. Achievement. Small business ownership. Equipped with these values and a commitment to growth, Amway positively impacts communities where we live, work and play. Driven by our values, Through these values, Amway helps people start their own businesses, strengthens communities and helps people live better, healthier lives. Learn more. | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD WATCH THIS SPACE — There is early behind-the-scenes talk of “establishing a peacekeeping force in Gaza, though it was not likely to include American troops,” Sens. CHRIS VAN HOLLEN (D-Md.) and RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) told our colleagues Joe Gould, Alexander Ward and Nahal Toosi. Though the senators stressed that the discussions are preliminary, it marks “the clearest sign yet that the U.S. and its partners are seriously weighing deploying foreign troops to the enclave.” BACKSTORY — “U.S. All but Stopped Spying on Hamas in Years After 9/11,” by WSJ’s Warren Strobel: “Calculating that Hamas had never directly threatened the U.S. and burdened with other spying priorities, Washington ceded the responsibility to Israel, confident that its aggressive security services would detect any threat, the U.S. officials said. It should have been ‘a well-placed bet,’ said one senior counterterrorism official.” FOR YOUR RADAR — “Federal prosecutor raises alarm about Chinese election interference,” by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Chris Cadelago THE ECONOMY FED UP — “Why a Fed rate pause won’t give Biden a break,” by Victoria Guida: “The central bank is expected to hold rates steady at its meeting on Wednesday as inflation shows signs of leveling off. But markets are increasingly demanding a premium beyond rate increases by the Fed. Those higher borrowing costs could put a drag on the economy, just as the election year gets underway. That’s likely to put pressure on President Joe Biden and Democrats in Congress to reduce deficits, though they’re not even close to reaching a deal with Republicans. And market experts generally cite political dysfunction as a prime reason why they’ve become more pessimistic about the fiscal outlook.”
| | | | CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Cut through the jargon and get the latest developments in California as lawmakers and industry leaders adapt to the changing climate. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes. | | | | | 2024 WATCH FULL COURT PRESS — The state-level efforts to ban DONALD TRUMP from the ballot in 2024 faces two key tests this week, WSJ’s Mariah Timms writes. Courts in Colorado and Minnesota will weigh whether the bid to disqualify Trump under a provision in the 14th Amendment should go forward. Of course, the potential loss of two blue states isn’t a grave concern for the Trump campaign (though they are fighting the efforts). But the rulings “could provide fodder for similar challenges in more crucial states, and potentially force the U.S. Supreme Court to take up the issue.” ALL POLITICS CALL IT A COMEBACK — Former Michigan GOP Rep. PETER MEIJER is planning to run for the open Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat DEBBIE STABENOW, according to Sen. TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.). “Young informed colleagues at a Senate GOP lunch Tuesday that he heard Meijer would jump into the race within 48 hours,” Ally Mutnick and Ursula Perano report. “His decision to enter the race would add to an already crowded Michigan GOP primary field — which includes another former Republican congressman [MIKE ROGERS]. Meijer is also an Army veteran who served in Iraq and the only first-term member who voted to oust Trump in the former president's second impeachment.” GARDEN STATE OF MIND — As the scandal and legal proceedings against Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) plays out, threatening his chances of reelection, New Jersey first lady TAMMY MURPHY is preparing to shake up the race to succeed the senior senator, NYT’s Tracey Tully reports. “She is assembling a campaign team, alerting prominent political leaders about her interest in running and polling voters, according to interviews with more than two dozen state and national Democratic officials, strategists and people close to the Murphys. If elected, she would be New Jersey’s first female senator and the only governor’s spouse ever sent directly to the U.S. Senate by voters, according to the U.S. Senate Historical Office.” For the primary oppo file: “By many measures her campaign would be even less traditional than most. She would run as a Democrat in a blue state, but she regularly voted as a Republican until 2014, even as her husband was finance chairman of the Democratic National Committee and as the ambassador to Germany appointed by President BARACK OBAMA.” HOW THE WEST WAS SPUN — “How suburbanites, Latinos and the ghost of John McCain turned Arizona into a presidential battleground,” by L.A. Times’ Mark Barabak in Mesa, Ariz.: “Over the last several months, I’ve traveled through a half-dozen states — along the Pacific Coast, across the Southwest, into the Rockies — to explore the reasons for the change, which has drastically refashioned the national race for the White House. There are commonalities throughout the region. Among them the defection of Republicans … who consider the GOP too extreme, and the relocation of Democrats who imported their political affinities from places like California.” NAME TO KNOW — Montana Commissioner of Securities and Insurances TROY DOWNING is jumping into the race for the 2nd Congressional District, KULR-8’s Bradley Warren reports. The seat is currently held by Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) who is widely expected to run for Senate.
| | | | GET READY FOR POLITICO’S DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/14: Russia’s war on Ukraine … China’s threats to Taiwan … a war in Gaza. The U.S. is under increasing pressure to deter, defend and fight in more ways — but not everyone agrees how. Join POLITICO's 3rd Annual Defense Summit on November 14 for exclusive interviews and expert discussions on global security and the U.S.'s race to bolster alliances and stay ahead of adversaries. Explore critical topics, including international conflicts, advanced technology, spending priorities and political dynamics shaping global defense strategies. Don’t miss these timely and important discussions. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY DOWN-BALLOT DOWNLOAD — NYT’s David Chen focuses on the lesser-known but vitally important races for agriculture commissioner that are playing out across a variety of states as Republicans try to extend their lead in the posts — with the first major test coming in Kentucky next week. “A total of 12 states in the South and Midwest elect their agriculture commissioners, who wield enormous clout on everything from regulating pesticides to containing animal disease outbreaks. Twenty years ago, Democrats held most of those seats; now, Republicans occupy all 12, even in states where Democrats have prevailed in other statewide contests for governor, attorney general and the United States Senate, like North Carolina, West Virginia and Georgia. “The reversal of fortune is part of a general decline of the Democratic Party in the South in recent decades. But it also reflects a concerted focus by Republicans on down-ballot races, where they are applying the party’s core message about free markets and government overreach to contests that in the past may not have been partisan political battlegrounds.” THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “The race to regulate AI: How California could go beyond Biden,” by Lara Korte in Sacramento MEGATREND — “The Death Rate for Babies in America Rose for the First Time in 20 Years,” by WSJ’s Liz Essley Whyte: “The nation’s infant-mortality rate rose 3% from 2021 to 2022, reversing a decadeslong overall decline, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Wednesday. The rate increased from 5.44 infant deaths for every 1,000 births to 5.6 in 2022, a statistically significant uptick. The U.S. rate is double that of many developed countries.” POLICY CORNER WHAT YOUR FAVORITE COMMISSIONER IS READING — “It Isn’t Just Golf. The Justice Department Is Very, Very Interested in Sports,” by WSJ’s Louise Radnofsky, Andrew Beaton and Robert O’Connell: “The picture is clear: professional sports leagues, which had often been left alone by federal regulators, are increasingly getting attention from the top antitrust enforcers in the United States. The Justice Department hasn’t explicitly said this publicly. But the new focus has been sitting in plain sight in court filings and speeches made by key figures in the antitrust division over the past five years.” PLAYBOOKERS TRANSITIONS — Lauren Dillon is joining GQR as VP. She previously was deputy chief of staff for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) and is a DNC, Biden campaign and Klobuchar campaign alum. … Mary Thornton is now VP of global policy at the Semiconductor Industry Association. She previously was head of trade and export controls policy at Amazon Web Services. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Renae Black, staff director for the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, and Jordan Stone, director of government affairs at Leidos, welcomed Marina Stone on Saturday. Pic … Another pic Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producer Bethany Irvine.
| | | | A message from Amway:   Driven by our values, Amway helps people live better, healthier lives. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
