Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) embraces Jesse Foster, a member of the House Sergeant at Arms staff, as the former Speaker of the House holds a photo line on his last day in Congress. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP
THE RETIREMENT PARTY — Kevin McCarthy’s exit became official today. The House clerk read the former Speaker’s resignation letter during a brief pro forma session, which indicated his final day as a member of Congress is Dec. 31.
He’s one of a slew of House members to announce their departures in the past two months, spotlighting the frustration and dysfunction gripping the chamber, but also calling attention to the narrow margin in the battle for control of the House next year.
One thing is all but certain: there are more retirements to come.
So far, nearly three dozen members have announced they are either retiring or running for other office next year — in November alone, there were 10 House retirements, the most in any month in almost a decade. An additional five have resigned or are leaving before their term is up (not including Rep. George Santos (D-N.Y.), who was expelled from Congress).
But those numbers will likely grow after the holidays, when members use their time back home with their families to reevaluate their priorities and their level of motivation for another grueling election cycle.
The first two months after the recess typically see a spike in retirements because that’s when the window for departing begins to close — there are looming filing deadlines and a need to allow the party to come up with a suitable replacement candidate. Particularly in competitive districts, the later the retirement announcement, the greater the risk of handicapping your party.
In 2022 and 2018, twelve members announced their retirement announcements in January and February. In 2020, there were four — over the past decade, the pattern has been less retirements in presidential election years than in midterm years.
Meanwhile, threats of violence against public officials are rising: a recent UMass Amherst poll of nearly 300 former members of Congress reported that 47 percent said they or their families received threats while in Congress. Another 84 percent said they were concerned about the possibility of violence related to the 2024 presidential election.
Then there’s the grind. Aside from campaigning, there’s the regular travel to Washington — which for many members requires cross-country flights and thousands of miles in the air.
This time, when the House returns in early January, members will have 10 days — including a long weekend in between — to pass spending levels for the year, a task normally completed before Christmas. As of now, there is no clear path forward on finding consensus within the Republican majority to pass them. All of this will come after spending almost a month in their districts — the longest period of time that members have been home since September.
As for the Senate, the list of retirements is likely set already: Six senators are calling it quits at the end of 2024. That’s not including Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), who was appointed this year but announced she won’t run for a full term next year.
Add up the known retirements in the two chambers from 2023, the House retirements to come in 2024, and it could be a recipe for large House and Senate freshman classes in 2025.
Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia. PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 2.
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What'd I Miss?
— Tuberville may drop remaining holds on military nominations, citing end of the year: Sen. Tommy Tuberville may drop the remainder of his holds on military nominations, which would mark an official end to his procedural protest of a Pentagon abortion policy. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has said he plans to bring up the four-star military nominations this week. Those promotions were the last ones Tuberville said he would hold up, after he dropped hundreds of his military holds earlier this month. In order to pass them before the end of the week, Schumer would need agreement from all 100 senators.
— ACLU sues Texas over controversial immigration law: The American Civil Liberties Union sued Texas today to block a controversial law that would allow police to detain migrants who illegally cross the U.S. border and authorize judges to order their deportation. The lawsuit, filed in a federal district court, alleges that the bill is unconstitutional and that it runs afoul of federal immigration law. The legislation is the latest in a series of efforts by Texas Republicans to test the limits of the state’s authority to tighten border security and stem illegal immigration.
— Prosecutors eyed obstruction charges months before Jack Smith took over Trump case: Months before special counsel Jack Smith took over the case, federal prosecutors in Washington, D.C. were considering obstruction charges in connection with Donald Trump’s bid to subvert the 2020 election. A newly unsealed court filing related to the Trump grand jury investigation shows that prosecutors were eyeing the charge — which had already been deployed against dozens of Jan. 6 riot defendants — at least by September 2022 and perhaps as early as the spring.
The court is the first in the nation to side with activists and voters who have filed numerous lawsuits claiming that Trump is barred from holding future office under the 14th Amendment’s “insurrection clause.” It reverses a lower-court ruling that found Trump had engaged in insurrection but that the Constitution’s ambiguity on the matter left Trump eligible to remain on the ballot.
The ruling will almost certainly speed efforts to force the issue up to the U.S. Supreme Court, and the court contemplated that outcome by staying its decision until Jan. 4, 2024, to give the justices time to consider the matter.
The State Board of Elections, composed of three Democrats and two Republicans, voted 4-1 to dismiss the candidate challenge made by Brian Martin, of Stokes County. The majority determined that it lacked the authority in state law to consider such a challenge. The rejection of the challenge could be appealed to state court.
TARGETED STRIKE — The super PAC supporting Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign has launched a television ad targeting Nikki Haley, a move her campaign called a signal that Trump’s allies are worried about her, reports the Associated Press.
A Congolese soldier stands guard at the incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi's campaign rally in Goma, the capital of the North Kivu province in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, on Dec. 10, 2023. | Alexis Huguet/AFP via Getty Images
Congolese forces and Rwanda-backed rebels have clashed in eastern Congo with increasing frequency since May, worrying U.S. officials that the violence would lead to a direct confrontation between the two countries. Over the last month, top officials from the National Security Council and the intelligence agencies helped broker a series of agreements that led to a pause in fighting.
As a result, the administration expects the armistice to stay in place until after the Congolese elections on Friday and through until at least Dec. 28, the date agreed upon by both countries, according to two U.S. officials. Both were granted anonymity to speak openly about sensitive ceasefire negotiations.
The fact that both Congo and Rwanda appear to be adhering to the U.S.-brokered ceasefire underscores Washington’s influence in a region where its main foes, including China, are also jockeying for power.
For years, Beijing has invested in the mining industry in Congo. It now controls more than 80 percent of the country’s cobalt market — the largest in the world — allowing it to prop up its expanding electric vehicle production. The Biden administration has signed multiple agreements with Congo to try and catch up.
As for trying to keep the peace in eastern Congo: “This is not something that the Chinese have raised their hand to be involved in,” the first U.S. official said.
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WE HAVE TO GO BACK — Have you heard that the dodo bird is coming back? Well, kind of. Plans of “de-extinction” for creatures like the dodo are increasingly popular but are also rife with complications. A “new dodo” wouldn’t be a “real dodo” in the strictest sense. It would be a genetic hybrid; a reinterpretation of the dodo, hopefully sharing some of the bird’s old traits. It also might not be able to exist in the wild. And yet, there’s all kinds of venture money behind various de-extinction projects — with some hope that these ambitious projects can produce results that essentially re-engineer long gone species. Sabrina Imbler reports for Defector.
Parting Image
On this date in 1994: A Chechen man examines the debris of a building with a water tank in the background in dense fog after Russian planes bombed the outskirts of the Chechen capital of Grozny in the midst of the First Chechen War. The war, fought for Chechen independence from Russia, ended with a peace treaty in 1997. | Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP
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