THE RETIREMENT PARTY — Kevin McCarthy’s exit became official today. The House clerk read the former Speaker’s resignation letter during a brief pro forma session, which indicated his final day as a member of Congress is Dec. 31. He’s one of a slew of House members to announce their departures in the past two months, spotlighting the frustration and dysfunction gripping the chamber, but also calling attention to the narrow margin in the battle for control of the House next year. One thing is all but certain: there are more retirements to come. So far, nearly three dozen members have announced they are either retiring or running for other office next year — in November alone, there were 10 House retirements, the most in any month in almost a decade. An additional five have resigned or are leaving before their term is up (not including Rep. George Santos (D-N.Y.), who was expelled from Congress). But those numbers will likely grow after the holidays, when members use their time back home with their families to reevaluate their priorities and their level of motivation for another grueling election cycle. The first two months after the recess typically see a spike in retirements because that’s when the window for departing begins to close — there are looming filing deadlines and a need to allow the party to come up with a suitable replacement candidate. Particularly in competitive districts, the later the retirement announcement, the greater the risk of handicapping your party. In 2022 and 2018, twelve members announced their retirement announcements in January and February. In 2020, there were four — over the past decade, the pattern has been less retirements in presidential election years than in midterm years. There’s plenty for wavering members to mull over before the House comes back to work on Jan. 9. It’s been a particularly chaotic session so far, marked by a three-week speakership battle that brought Congress to a standstill, deep polarization and a record low number of bills passed. Meanwhile, threats of violence against public officials are rising: a recent UMass Amherst poll of nearly 300 former members of Congress reported that 47 percent said they or their families received threats while in Congress. Another 84 percent said they were concerned about the possibility of violence related to the 2024 presidential election. Then there’s the grind. Aside from campaigning, there’s the regular travel to Washington — which for many members requires cross-country flights and thousands of miles in the air. This time, when the House returns in early January, members will have 10 days — including a long weekend in between — to pass spending levels for the year, a task normally completed before Christmas. As of now, there is no clear path forward on finding consensus within the Republican majority to pass them. All of this will come after spending almost a month in their districts — the longest period of time that members have been home since September. As for the Senate, the list of retirements is likely set already: Six senators are calling it quits at the end of 2024. That’s not including Sen. Laphonza Butler (D-Calif.), who was appointed this year but announced she won’t run for a full term next year. Add up the known retirements in the two chambers from 2023, the House retirements to come in 2024, and it could be a recipe for large House and Senate freshman classes in 2025. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia. PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off next week for the holidays but back to our normal schedule on Tuesday, Jan. 2.
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