| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels and Ryan Lizza | Presented by ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | BREAKING — “Powerful earthquake slams Japan, residents flee some coastal areas,” by Reuters’ Tim Kelly, Satoshi Sugiyama and Sakura Murakami: “The quake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.6 triggered waves of about 1 metre along Japan's west coast and neighbouring South Korea, with authorities saying larger waves could follow.” ALSO BREAKING — “Israel Plans to Withdraw Some Troops From Gaza,” by NYT’s Aaron Boxerman: “The military cited a growing toll on the Israeli economy following nearly three months of wartime mobilization with little end in sight to the fighting.”
|  As we look ahead to the 2024 calendar, all the ingredients are there for another volatile year — at least in the political arena. | Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images | WELCOME TO 2024 — It’s gonna be a hell of a year. Yes, it will be hard to top the craziness of 2020, with the onslaught of a deadly pandemic that killed hundreds of thousands of Americans, the racial reckoning ignited by the killing of GEORGE FLOYD, and a presidential campaign maelstrom that ended in DONALD TRUMP’s efforts to undo the election results, setting the stage for the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection. While 2024 might not prove to be quite that chaotic, the ingredients are there for another volatile year — at least in the political arena. A Trump-JOE BIDEN rematch appears likely, though not assured, with the former president now fighting not only for a return to the White House, but possibly for his own personal freedom. The current president, meanwhile, has economic indicators any incumbent would relish but can’t manage to quiet the public’s doubts about his age and abilities. Down Pennsylvania Avenue, there’s a historically unproductive Congress that ousted a House speaker for the first time in history last year and looks to be just as ungovernable this year, as the GOP civil war continues to trip up the basic duties of Congress. To get an idea of the pace we’re in for, look no further than this coming month. Voters in Iowa caucus two weeks from today. New Hampshire voters will head to the polls just eight days later — with voting potentially taking place amid a partial government shutdown. With a Jan. 19 deadline looming, congressional negotiators haven’t even settled on a topline spending number, let alone line items therein. Get a load of the other storylines we’ll be following this year:
- An 11th-hour campaign by NIKKI HALEY to try to consolidate the anti-Trump field before it’s too late to stop his march to the GOP nomination.
- Rookie Speaker MIKE JOHNSON managing the narrowest House majority in recent memory, one further stressed by the early retirements of several GOP lawmakers and budding conservative discontent with his leadership.
- A potential end for U.S. aid to Ukraine, a once-unthinkable possibility that nonetheless looks increasingly probable given congressional gridlock — and the geopolitical consequences that entails.
- A hugely unpredictable situation in the Middle East that has growing implications for domestic politics in the U.S. as the Israel-Hamas conflict grinds on and the security picture in the region only grows more complicated.
- As many as three possible trials for Trump on more than 100 combined criminal counts, with the action unfolding in the middle of election season — including possible televised proceedings in Georgia.
- A starring role for the Supreme Court, which has been asked to settle major questions surrounding Trump, including whether states can boot Trump from their ballots and whether he’s immune from prosecution for actions he took while president.
- A crash effort by Biden to remind swing voters why they turned Trump out of office four years ago and to once again unite Democrats against the prospect of a second Trump term.
- Potential revolts against the likely nominees in each party — versus Trump if he’s convicted of a crime and versus Biden if his dismal poll showings don;t show improvement.
- Third-party presidential bids by ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., CORNEL WEST and a possible player to be named later which could scramble both the strategy and tactics of the 2024 race.
- And, hanging over it all, profound questions about the resilience of American democracy, as the AP’s Nick Riccardi captures: “The 2024 election could cause all sorts of conflict, including scenarios that have notably not materialized despite widespread concern since 2020: violence at the polls, overly aggressive partisan poll watchers or breakdowns in the ballot count.”
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: Annuities deliver financial certainty like traditional pensions of old.
They are a legally enforceable promise made by an insurance company to provide guaranteed monthly income throughout retirement.
A Department of Labor proposal would shut down access to options for middle-income savers. It’s out of step with bipartisan support in Congress to expand access to guaranteed lifetime income. Stand with us. Protect retirement for all. | | | Good Monday morning, and Happy New Year! Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and let us know how you’re preparing for what’s ahead: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza. THE INTERNATIONAL VIEW — “The global elections Washington should be watching in 2024,” by Eric Bazail-Eimil: “Dubbed the biggest election year in history, more than 60 countries representing half the world population — some 4 billion people — will hold regional, legislative and presidential elections that look set to shake up political institutions and ramp up geopolitical tensions.”
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Everyone should be able to achieve retirement security. A Department of Labor proposal would limit access to guaranteed lifetime income. Protect retirement for all. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden and VP KAMALA HARRIS have nothing on their public schedules.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR
|  New Hampshire’s unsanctioned Democratic primary will provide the first real test of Biden’s strength within his party in 2024. | Getty Images | 1. PATHS TO VICTORY: With a newly shifted presidential nominating calendar, New Hampshire’s unsanctioned Democratic primary on Jan. 23 is the subject of a lot of speculation regarding what results Biden and his long-shot challenger Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) can expect — and which ones will matter at all. Our colleagues Elena Schneider and Holly Otterbein surveyed the landscape of Dem strategists and party officials to get a sense of how they’re anticipating the Granite State action: “There were, in general, four types of responses: those who believe Biden needs to win somewhere around 60 percent to avoid embarrassment; those who think Phillips only has to take 30 percent to 40 percent to claim momentum (he’s not the only non-Biden candidate running); those who argue any win is a win for Biden; and those who just plain don’t know.” 2. PROMISES MADE, PROMISES SLEPT: As we enter a new election year, WSJ’s Tarini Parti and Kara Dapena take a look in the rear-view mirror to the 2020 election to take stock of the campaign promises that Biden made that landed him in the White House. They find that despite “some bipartisan legislative victories, he has fallen short on some of his promises” — only delivering on 10 out of 23 — in the key policy avenues of the economy, immigration, foreign policy, climate and criminal justice and guns. 3. ALL EYES ON IOWA: With the Iowa caucuses quickly approaching on Jan. 15, Trump’s campaign operation isn’t resting on its laurels, urging voters that while Trump himself is confident he’ll secure victory, it’s up to them to do the work. “With just two weeks until Iowa’s first-in-the-nation nominating contest, Mr. Trump’s campaign is dedicated to meeting high expectations and avoiding a repeat of 2016, when Mr. Trump narrowly came in second in Iowa despite being ahead in polls,” NYT’s Michael Gold and Kellen Browning report from Iowa. “But while his Republican rivals are more focused on knocking on doors and swaying minds, Mr. Trump and his campaign have directed their efforts toward teaching supporters how to caucus and recruiting a grass-roots network to help guarantee they show up. ‘We already have the votes to win,’ one aide said. ‘All we have to do is turn them out.’” 4. MIDDLE EAST LATEST: Biden’s diplomatic trip to Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack and his winding support for the traditional U.S. ally is increasingly fraught as the war rages on. How Biden navigates the “most divisive foreign policy crisis of his presidency” will continue to test the ties between the U.S. and Israel as the new year turns, NYT’s Peter Baker, Edward Wong, Julian Barnes and Isabel Kershner write. “The Biden team recognizes that its challenge is not just Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, since Israelis across the board support the military operation that according to the Gaza Health Ministry has killed more than 20,000 people. But there is no serious discussion inside the administration of a meaningful change in policy, like cutting off the arms supply to Israel. Instead, Mr. Biden remains determined to navigate the crisis within the crisis by using the credibility he earned through steadfast support of Israel to shape its next chapter, although it is unclear how much leverage that gives him.” Related reads: “Half of Gazans Are at Risk of Starving, U.N. Warns,” by NYT’s Liam Stack, Gaya Gupta and Abu Bakr Bashir … “Israeli Families Band Together to Keep Government Focused on Hostages,” by WSJ’s Chao Deng in Tel Aviv … “Iran showcases its reach with militia attacks across Middle East,” by WaPo’s Liz Sly, Mustafa Salim and Suzan Haidamous … “US to bring back aircraft carrier from eastern Mediterranean,” by ABC’s Luis Martinez
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA:   Americans deserve financial guidance. Learn how a DOL proposal would shut down access. | | | 5. WAR IN UKRAINE: Russian forces “launched a record 90 Shahed-type drones over Ukraine during the early hours of the new year, the Ukrainian air force said Monday, while Russia also reported Ukrainian attacks,” per the AP. “A 15-year-old boy was killed and seven people wounded after falling debris from one of 87 downed drones hit a residential building in the city of Odesa, the head of the region’s military administration, OLEH KIPER, said.” 6. SCOTUS WATCH: Supreme Court Chief Justice JOHN ROBERTS, like everyone else you know, is thinking about artificial intelligence. Roberts, in his year-end report yesterday, weighed in on the promise and peril of AI, “skirting entirely the ethics controversies that bedeviled the Supreme Court over the past year and the momentous role the court is set to play in the 2024 presidential election,” our colleague Josh Gerstein writes. “Legal research may soon be unimaginable without it,” wrote Roberts. “AI obviously has great potential to dramatically increase access to key information for lawyers and non-lawyers alike. But just as obviously it risks invading privacy interests and dehumanizing the law.” Read Roberts’ report 7. THE ECONOMY: If you thought there was a lot of focus on the state of the economy in 2023, the new election year will only ramp up the rate of coverage. A pair of stories up this morning offer a good check-in on the various markets that every campaign will be closely attuned to in 2024. — “Where the Job Market Is Heading in 2024, in Six Charts,” by WSJ’s Jeffrey Sparshott and Gabriel Rubin: “Employers slowed hiring and handed out smaller raises in recent months, signs of fading momentum in the job market that have some forecasters expecting unemployment to rise in 2024. And that might be OK. The key for American workers and Federal Reserve policymakers is to have the labor market cool without collapsing.” — “Chill in the Housing Market Seeps Into Other Industries,” by NYT’s Martha White: “High home prices and elevated mortgage rates, which squeezed the housing market last year, have dragged down a number of other related sectors, like real estate services and mortgage lending. But housing is such a crucial cog in the American economy that its slowdown has also threatened industries like home improvement and storage.” 8. SO THIS IS THE NEW YEAR: With the calendar flipping to a new year, so come an entirely new set of laws that were scheduled to take effect at the outset of 2024. NYT’s Adeel Hassan has a roundup: “A spate of new state laws, including on guns, minimum wage and gender transition care, went into effect as the calendar flipped to 2024. Perhaps the most significant change bans programs that promote diversity, equity and inclusion at publicly funded colleges and universities in Texas.” 9. BLOWING SMOKE: “Why fears about Biden’s marijuana moves are overblown,” by Mona Zhang: “The Biden administration is poised to make the biggest shift in federal drug policy in decades by loosening marijuana restrictions, but the move is sparking blowback from an unlikely constituency: legalization advocates.”
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | IN MEMORIAM — “Former U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, Black Democratic trailblazer, dies at 88,” by The Texas Tribune’s Abby Livingston and Pooja Salhotra: “A towering Dallas political figure — once a nurse, state legislator and congresswoman — Johnson was the dean of the Texas Congressional delegation before retiring from office in 2022. She proved effective at her work due to her long tenure serving in the U.S. House — nearly 30 years at the time of her passing — and a pragmatist streak that made her open to working with Republicans.” FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Independent Women’s Forum is announcing its spring 2024 visiting fellows: Eleanor Bartow, Grace Bydalek, Maggie Cleary, Tahmineh Dehbozorgi, Claudine “Beanie” Geoghegan, Jill Jacobson, Samantha Janney, Paige Lambermont, Jennifer Oliver O'Connell and Anna St. John. SPOTTED: Cornel West and Ye, aka Kanye West, (separately) at the Sunset Tower Hotel in LA yesterday. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED on Saturday night at a dinner hosted by Helen and Joe Milby celebrating Tammy Haddad’s birthday: Rachel and David Greenberg, John McCarthy, Dan Koh, British Ambassador Karen Pierce and Charles Roxburgh, Irish Ambassador Geraldine Byrne Nason, Alex Nason, Felix Browne, Niamh King, Jane Oates and John O’Leary and James Hooley. ENGAGED — Tom Helsel, portfolio manager at the AFL-CIO Housing Investment Trust, and Ursula Perano, Congress reporter for POLITICO, got engaged on Friday at the National Zoo during zoo lights. The couple met on Hinge in February 2020. Pic … Another pic — Brandon Smith, chief of staff for the Tennessee AG, and Coco Pannell, who does news and political partnerships at YouTube, got engaged on Saturday in a sea of white tulips with Coco’s grandmother's ring at Ellington's, where they had post-dinner drinks the night they met. The couple met at a Nashville dinner with friends organized by Michael Hendrix, Gov. Bill Lee's policy director, and Chad Blackburn. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Doug Thornell, CEO of SKDK, and Katie Thornell, a program manager at the Association of American Medical Colleges, on Wednesday welcomed Olivia Maria Richie Thornell. Pic … Another pic NEW YEAR’S BIRTHDAYS: Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) (7-0)… Reps. Terri Sewell (D-Ala.), Derek Kilmer (D-Wash.) and Diana Harshbarger (R-Tenn.) … Vinay Reddy … European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde … BuzzFeed’s Jonah Peretti … Max Richtman … WaPo’s Brady Dennis … James Glassman … Kevin McGrann of Forbes Tate Partners … Stephanie Penn … Todd Webster of Cornerstone Government Affairs … Dan Koh of the White House … Brian Frederick of the ALS Association … Shannon Watts … Priscilla Ross … C-SPAN’s Nicole Ninh … Alison (Howard) Centofante … Justin Bartolomeo of Plus Communications … Margot Friedman … Dana Klinghoffer of NBC … Gary Johnson (… former New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine … Hannah Schwartz … former Reps. John Sullivan (R-Okla.) and Martin Frost (D-Texas) … POLITICO’s Alex DiNino, Giulia Chiatante and Sohrab Azad … Jake Wilkins … Dan Weiss … Rokk Solutions’ Kristen Hawn … Aidan Kohn-Murphy of Gen-Z for Change … Kellie Meiman Hock of McLarty Associates Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Saturday’s Playbook misidentified the senator who clarified whether Section 3 of the 14th Amendment applied to presidents and vice presidents. It was Lot Morrill of Maine.
| | | | A message from ACLI, Finseca, IRI, NAFA and NAIFA: Annuities close retirement security gaps for workers.
They help people navigate anxieties about savings lasting throughout retirement amid economic uncertainty and market volatility.
Congress recognized the real challenges people are facing and the importance of annuities in addressing them. Bipartisan legislation in 2019 and 2022 made guaranteed lifetime income more accessible to savers.
A Department of Labor proposal undermines this good work by limiting access to options for a protected retirement. Stand with us to protect options for retirement savers. Protect retirement for all. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
