6 big questions about the Middle East strikes

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Feb 03, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade

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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine

DRIVING THE DAY

ANNIVERSARY READ — “A year after East Palestine derailment, rail industry blocks new safety rules,” by WaPo’s Tony Romm: “Publicly, Norfolk Southern and its peers have pledged to work with lawmakers on the bill. But the companies have still labored to severely weaken or eliminate some of its core provisions, according to 15 lawmakers, congressional aides, union officials and others, many of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private conversations.”

MARK YOUR CALENDARS — President JOE BIDEN will speak at the Gridiron Club’s March 16 spring dinner on March 16, attending for the first time during his presidency, Gridiron President DAN BALZ announced yesterday.

DOVER, DELAWARE - FEBRUARY 02: U.S. President Joe Biden places his hand over his heart during the dignified transfer for fallen service members U.S. Army Sgt. William Rivers, Sgt. Breonna Moffett and Sgt. Kennedy Sanders at Dover Air Force Base on February 02, 2024 in Dover, Delaware. U.S. Army Sgt. William Rivers, Sgt. Breonna Moffett and Sgt. Kennedy Sanders were killed   in addition to 40 others troops were injured during a drone strike in Jordan.

President Joe Biden observes the dignified transfer for fallen service members in a deadly drone strike in Jordan at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware on Friday, Feb. 2. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

STRIKE AFTERMATH — A few questions to ponder after yesterday’s action:

1. Where’s Biden? 

The U.S. hit 85 targets in seven locations in Syria and Iraq over the course of 30 minutes yesterday. The strikes began after Biden returned to his home in Delaware after meeting with the families of the three service members killed last weekend as their remains arrived at Dover Air Force Base.

There was no public appearance by the president to announce these potentially escalatory strikes. No Oval Office address. No on-camera statement. Instead the news was delivered via virtual briefings and a news release from Biden, in which he said the strikes “will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

“The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world,” he added. “But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”

For a public perhaps bewildered about (1) the mission of the Americans who were killed in Jordan or (2) the ramifications of what is starting to look more like a multi-front war, Biden has had remarkably little to say. This afternoon, he leaves for private campaign-related meetings in Los Angeles. Tomorrow, he raises money in Las Vegas.

2. Will it work?

With Biden at home and out of view, it was left to JOHN KIRBY and other administration officials to explain the U.S. strikes. In a call with reporters last night, Kirby made a few key points:

  • He tried to subtly separate Iran from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which funds and influences the militia groups that have been attacking U.S. forces: “We do not seek conflict with Iran. These targets were chosen, as we said, to degrade and disrupt the capabilities of the IRGC and the groups that they sponsor and support.”
  • Like Biden, he made it clear there will be additional actions taken, but he put a timeline on them: “There will be additional response actions taken in coming days.”
  • He insisted the timing of the strikes were unrelated to Biden’s personal schedule yesterday: “It had no connection, none whatsoever, with the timing of the dignified transfer today at Dover Air Force Base.” Instead, he said, it was the weather.
  • He explained the goal of the strikes: “The goal here is to get these attacks to stop. We are not looking for a war with Iran … The signal is: The attacks have to stop.”

With deterrence as the clear goal, any new strikes will mean Biden didn’t do enough.

3. Did Biden wait too long?

A number of critics today say the week-long telegraphing of the strikes means the IRGC and the militias it supports had plenty of opportunity to harden defenses and scatter to safety.

The WSJ quotes MICK MULROY, a former Marine officer and Trump administration Pentagon official: “Some will say [the U.S.] missed an opportunity to really inflict consequences on Iran. … We may however be able to reduce these Iranian proxies’ ability to attack our forces by striking these supply lines, storage facilities, and launch sites.”

 

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4. What will Trump say?

The reaction from congressional leaders was predictably partisan. POLITICO’s Christine Zhu has a good rundown: “Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Ark.) and Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) welcomed the strikes but said they were too little, too late. … Sen. PETE RICKETTS (R-Neb.), posted: ‘To restore effective deterrence, President Biden must hit Iran where it hurts. Weak, telegraphed responses will not cut it. We need leadership, not appeasement.’

“However, Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.), [the Senate Armed Services Committee] chair, said in a statement: ‘This was a strong, proportional response. In fact, the 85 targets struck tonight mark a greater number than the prior administration.’”

Trump has been notably coy on the conflict in the Middle East. There are few signs that it will fade away, but Trump seems caught between his instincts to sound tougher than Biden and his instincts to simply pull out of the region.

5. How will this affect relations with Iraq?

U.S. officials insisted they coordinated with Iraq, but the Iraqi government contradicted that. “We did inform the Iraqi government prior to the strikes occurring,” Kirby said.

Not true, say the Iraqis, per WaPo: “Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement that it would summon the chargé d’affaires at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad to officially protest the strikes on its territory. BASIM AL-AWADI, a spokesman for the Iraqi prime minister … described the strikes as ‘aggression against Iraq’s sovereignty,’ criticized the presence of coalition forces in Iraq and accused the United States of ‘deception and falsifying facts by falsely claiming pre-coordination for this aggression.’”

6. Will Iran escalate or de-escalate?

Kirby said there have been no back-channel talks with Iran since the attack on Tower 22. But most of the initial tea leaves suggest Iran sees the situation somewhat similarly to the U.S. and is keen to avoid further escalation.

“Last night’s attack on Syria and Iraq is an adventurous action and another strategic mistake by the US government, which will have no result other than intensifying tension and instability in the region,” said a spokesman for Iran’s foreign ministry.

This story from the AP has a similar vibe: “An Iranian-backed militia official downplays the U.S. strikes in Iraq, hints at deescalation,” by AP’s Abdulrahman Zeyad and Ali Jabar

But as Michael Hirsh lays out in a new POLITICO Magazine piece, with U.S.-Iranian relations “on a permanent hair trigger that is constantly threatening to explode at the slightest pressure,” a mutual desire to avoid a wider conflict isn’t necessarily enough to prevent just that from happening.

Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

The president and first lady JILL BIDEN will travel to Los Angeles in the afternoon. Biden is scheduled to meet with Black entertainment industry leaders, per Deadline’s Ted Johnson.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US

Pamphlets for South Carolina's First in the Nation Primary lay on a table.

South Carolina's primary today is just one example of how Joe Biden and Donald Trump have bent the nominating calendar to their wills. | Lauren Egan/POLITICO

1. PRIMARY COLORS: Biden and Trump both altered the 2024 primary processes to assert their dominance, as contests in South Carolina today and Nevada later this week will put on full display, our colleague Steve Shepard writes.

“Both states are distinct examples of Biden and Trump tilting the playing field. And in some cases the rules changes engineered by one have also benefited the other — like when Democrats’ decision to create a Nevada primary gave Republicans an opening to split the candidate field by also holding an insular, Trump-friendly caucus.

“That has stacked the deck against [NIKKI] HALEY, [DEAN] PHILLIPS and anyone else who has tried or considered running against them. As the race moves away from Iowa and New Hampshire and inches toward Super Tuesday, these arcane rules changes will serve to entrench Biden and Trump even further.”

2. SPEAKING OF SOUTH CAROLINA: As Democrats hold their first official primary in South Carolina today, it was meant to be a celebration of the newly selected first-in-the-nation contest for the party. But it’s not getting much traction with the voters Biden actually needs to reach — a reality that could prove to be a problem for Biden’s reelection effort, our colleague Brakkton Booker reports from Charleston.

“Officials with the party spent the closing days crisscrossing the state engaging Black voters. But turnout at some of these events was sparse, with many of them attended by party officials. Of the Black voters outside of party-backed events, few seem excited or even aware of the coming election. It’s not just because they’re unenthused about Biden, it’s that they don’t see the primary as much of a contest at all.”

Related read: “The South Carolina Democratic primary is all about who’s ready for 2028,” by Elena Schneider in Orangeburg: “A host of prominent Democratic politicians with national ambitions have descended on the state over the last week, all hyping the Biden agenda and rallying for the 2024 campaign as surrogates. … It’s the kind of grasstops glad-handing that seasoned politicians spin as surrogacy for the man atop the ticket but that equally attuned local officials recognize as — to use a colloquial term — laying the groundwork.”

3. THE TICKET TO UNITY: RNC Chair RONNA McDANIEL is making pleas for her party to come together in preparation for the general election, facing a cash shortage and critiques from the right. “McDaniel spoke at the RNC’s winter meeting in Las Vegas behind closed doors on Friday, addressing a gathering of state chairmen and other top party members in what’s expected to be a critical swing state in the November election,” AP’s Thomas Beaumont and Brian Slodysko report from Las Vegas. “‘We Republicans will stick together, as united as the union our party long ago fought to preserve,’ McDaniel said, according to people who were in the room and disclosed her remarks on condition of anonymity to discuss a private gathering. ‘We’ll have our battles ahead of us, but they’re good battles, and they’re worth fighting for.’”

4. IMPEACHMENT IMPETUS: House Republicans are pressing on with their effort to build a case for impeaching Biden, even though no action is expected until more hearings take place this month with HUNTER and JAMES BIDEN, the president’s son and brother. “But serious doubts are growing inside the GOP that they will be able to convince their razor-thin majority to back the politically perilous impeachment effort in an election-year, according to interviews with over a dozen Republican lawmakers and aides, including some who are close to the probe,” CNN’s Annie Grayer and Melanie Zanona report.

“While no formal whip count has been conducted, one GOP lawmaker estimated there are around 20 House Republicans who are not convinced there is evidence for impeachment, and Republicans can only lose two votes in the current House margins.”

5. SMITH SPEAKS OUT: In a filing yesterday for the classified documents case against Trump, special counsel JACK SMITH delivered a forceful public rebuttal against the former president’s claims that his criminal prosecution has been infected by politics and legal impropriety. “The 68-page document began with what Smith’s team described as an effort to correct false assertions the former president had made about the nature of the case against him,” our colleagues Josh Gerstein and Kyle Cheney write, noting that it then turned to “a lengthy recitation” of the history of the case.


“The approach taken in the legal brief is somewhat unusual for the Justice Department. Though the filing was submitted to U.S. District Judge AILEEN CANNON, at times it sounded like an opening argument to a jury Trump could face in the future or the first chapter of a report meant to detail investigative findings to the public.”


6. TRUMP TRIAL TIMELINE: A federal judge in D.C. yesterday postponed Trump’s 2020 election subversion trial, which was originally set for March 4, while an appeal from Trump’s team for immunity plays out. “U.S. District Judge TANYA CHUTKAN on Friday vacated the March 4 trial date in the case brought by Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith but did not immediately set a new date. The move opens the door for a separate prosecution in New York, charging Trump in connection with hush money payments to a porn actor, to proceed first,” AP’s Eric Tucker writes.

7. MORE LEGAL LIMBO: WaPo’s Drew Harwell digs into the “sprawling investigation” into Digital World Acquisition, the SPAC that intended to merge with Trump Media in an effort to build out Trump’s endeavors. Though neither Trump himself, nor Trump Media, are accused of wrongdoing, the new documents provide a vivid picture of an investigation that reached many branches of the federal bureaucracy and “raise questions about how Trump, who built his political reputation in part on having mastered ‘the art of the deal,’ ended up committed to a business arrangement that federal agents now allege was undermined from its inception by financial fraud.”

8. SPECIAL TREATMENT: In New York’s special election to fill the seat of ousted GOP Rep. GEORGE SANTOS, Republican candidate MAZI PILIP is campaigning hard to capture the votes of Jewish voters against the backdrop of the Israel-Gaza war — a strategy that appears to be working in her neck-and-neck battle with Democrat TOM SUOZZI. “Their Feb. 13 contest will turn on myriad national issues, particularly the crisis at the border. But Ms. Pilip’s approach has also transformed the race into a test of just how thoroughly the conflict and fears over rising anti-Israel sentiment have shaken political alliances for suburban American Jews, long a bedrock of the Democratic coalition,” NYT’s Nicholas Fandos reports.

9. SCOTUS WATCH: The Supreme Court yesterday “refused to immediately force the U.S. Military Academy at West Point to change its race-conscious admissions policies, less than a year after the court’s conservative majority rejected similar programs at other colleges and universities,” WaPo’s Ann Marimow writes. “In its brief unsigned order Friday, the justices denied the emergency request, saying the record before the court is ‘underdeveloped.’ There were no noted dissents, but the court said its order ‘should not be construed as expressing any view on the merits of the constitutional question.’”

 

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CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 17 funnies

Political cartoon

GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza:

“Why Tim Cook Is Going All In on the Apple Vision Pro,” by Vanity Fair’s Nick Bilton: “Inside Apple Park, the tech giant’s CEO talks about the genesis of a ‘mind-blowing’ new device that could change the way we live and work.”

“The Rise Of Techno-Authoritarianism,” by The Atlantic’s Adrienne LaFrance: “Silicon Valley has its own ascendant political ideology. It’s past time we call it what it is.”

“A Startup Allegedly ‘Hacked the World.’ Then Came the Censorship — and Now the Backlash,” by Wired’s Andy Greenberg: “A loose coalition of anti-censorship voices is working to highlight reports of one Indian company’s hacker-for-hire past — and the legal threats aimed at making them disappear.”

“No, Aliens Haven’t Visited the Earth,” by Nicholson Baker for N.Y. Mag: “Why are so many smart people insisting otherwise?”

“Recruited to Play Sports, and Win a Culture War,” by NYT’s Susan Dominus: “Many New College athletes had no idea they were part of Ron DeSantis’s attack on ‘woke ideology.’ Then the semester began.”

“Days of Darkness: How one woman escaped the conspiracy theory trap that has ensnared millions,” by AP’s David Klepper: “Don’s wild stories had seemed innocent and even silly before, but in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic they suddenly seemed plausible. At a scary time, when questions about the virus outnumbered answers, the conspiracy theories filled in some of the blanks.”

“Doom spiral,” by Yascha Mounk for the Deseret News: “The United States is dangerously divided. Is there a way back?”

“Russian Exceptionalism,” by Gary Saul Morson for the NY Review of Books: “After the fall of the USSR, liberalism, considered foreign, was overwhelmed by various types of nationalism, one of which, Eurasianism, seems to have achieved the status of a semiofficial ideology.”

“Bombs next door,” by the Detroit News’ Robert Snell: “Illegal explosives made where you least expect it.”

“The $1 Billion Art Collection That’s Tearing a Family Apart,” by WSJ’s Kelly Crow: “Hubert Neumann spent his life building a storied art collection to bequeath his three daughters. Then his wife’s will changed everything.”

“They’ve lived 100 years. Here’s their advice about everything,” by WaPo’s Annabelle Timsit, Teddy Amenabar, Niha Masih and Naomi Schanen

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Maureen Dowd gets inside Donald Trump’s head.

Ted Cruz wants lawmakers to get security escorts through airports.

Donald Trump is fundraising off of Joe Biden’s explicit name for him.

Bill de Blasio commemorated Groundhog Day in a way only he can.

Justin Trudeau showed off his lightsaber skills.

John Fetterman is an ally for striking and laid-off journalists.

Taylor Swift can make it from her concert in Tokyo to the Super Bowl, according to the Japanese Embassy.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party at Sally Quinn’s house for Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, where toasts were given by Phil Rucker, Josh Dawsey, Kate Sullivan and Quinn: Bob Woodward and Elsa Walsh, Will Lewis, Sally Buzbee, Don Graham and Amanda Bennett, British Ambassador Dame Karen Pierce and Sir Charles Roxburgh, Ashley Parker, Matea Gold, Jacqueline Alemany, John Hudson, Timothy Shriver and Linda Potter, James Adams, Bill Weld and Leslie Marshall, Cameron Barr, Rosalind Helderman, Amy Fiscus and Perry Stein.

— SPOTTED at the 10th anniversary of the Rancho Mirage Writers Festival in California, near Palm Springs: California Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, Valerie Biden Owens, Lesley Stahl, David Petraeus, Bret Stephens, Hugo Lowell, Kurt Bardella, Adam Nagourney, Donna Brazile, Karl Rove, Adam Kinzinger, Doris Kearns Goodwin, Jon Meacham, Cassidy Hutchinson, John Avlon, Margaret Hoover, Bob Shrum, David Gergen, Chasten Buttigieg, Reince Priebus, Sheila Johnson, Anne Applebaum, Ezra Klein, Bari Weiss, Ari Member and Jamie Kabler.

MEDIA MOVE — Aneeta Mathur-Ashton is joining CBS as a congressional reporter. She previously was a reporter at The Messenger.

TRANSITION — Amanda Kepplin is now business operations manager at Savior Brain. She most recently was policy adviser/operations director for Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.).

ENGAGED — Asaf Kanari, a VP in investment banking at Nomura, and Tal Heinrich, a spokesperson for the Israeli prime minister’s office to the international media, recently got engaged at their home in New York after Tal landed back from a month of working in Israel, with a celebration afterward at Nobu. The two met on Hinge before realizing they had mutual Israeli friends. Instapics

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Chris Megerian, a White House reporter at the AP, and Jessica Calefati, a reporter for the Baltimore Banner, on Wednesday welcomed Theo Anthony, who joins big sister Madeleine Sara. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) (5-0) and Rob Wittman (R-Va.) … Matt Rhoades … Wisconsin Dem Chair Ben Wikler Douglas Holtz-EakinJose Antonio Vargas … DOD’s Mieke Eoyang Amy Chapman Virginia Boney Eric Lander … former Rep. Tom Graves (R-Ga.) … Markus Batchelor Andrew McIndoeJosh LipskyJames HolmMaryAlice Parks Kyle Tharp Zaida Ricker of the National Association of State Head Injury Administrators … Claritza Jimenez Lisa BootheMike RyanJustine Turner of iHeartMedia … John HendrenSteve WeissArthur LevittFred Hochberg … POLITICO’s Benjamin Berg … DHS’ Steve Feder … State’s Claudia Borovina Lauren Bosler of the Templar Baker Group … AM LLC’s Dan Gabriel Kevin Figueroa of Sen. Michael Bennet’s (D-Colo.) office … DNC’s Gabby Paone

THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here):

ABC “This Week”: Jake Sullivan … House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries … Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). Panel: Donna Brazile, Reince Priebus, Marianna Sotomayor and Jonathan Martin.

NBC “Meet the Press”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Jake Sullivan … Steve Kornacki. Panel: Hallie Jackson, Sam Jacobs, Ramesh Ponnuru and Symone Sanders-Townsend.

CBS “Face the Nation”: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) … Jake Sullivan … Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio) … Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) … Gen. Frank McKenzie.

FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) … John Kirby. Panel: Jonathan Turley and Tom Dupree. Panel: Olivia Beavers, Marie Harf, Rich Lowry and Mario Parker.

Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Donald Trump … Texas Gov. Greg Abbott … South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

CNN “State of the Union”: Nikki Haley … Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) … Jake Sullivan. Panel: Scott Jennings, Ashley Allison, Doug Heye and Faiz Shakir.

MSNBC “The Sunday Show”: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) … Jaime Harrison.

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Corrections: Friday’s Playbook misspelled Meridith McGraw’s name and also combined the Sunday show listings for CNN’s “State of the Union” and “Inside Politics Sunday.”

 

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