A blizzard of money in California Senate race

Feb 29, 2024

Clockwise from top left: California senate candidates Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Steve Garvey and Barbara Lee.

Clockwise from top left: California Senate candidates Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Steve Garvey and Barbara Lee. | Francis Chung/POLITICO; Richard Vogel/AP (bottom right)

HUUUUUUUUUUUGE SPENDERS: California’s marquee Senate race has already become the most expensive in the state’s history.

That eye-popping tidbit is courtesy of AdImpact, the ad-tracking and spending service used by POLITICO and many campaigns.

The primary between Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter, and Republican former major leaguer Steve Garvey, has had nearly 250 percent more spending — a total of $65.3 million — than the last three California Senate races combined.

It makes sense, right? The seat once held by the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein is massively coveted. And Sen. Alex Padilla short-circuited the standard process by being appointed by Gov. Gavin Newsom, before being duly elected by the good people of California in 2022.

But still, you gotta admit the spending is staggering. And it’s made even more astonishing when you consider that California is a deeply blue state and that the outcome won’t have any bearing on Senate control.

California’s Senate race spending is so large that it makes up more than half of the state’s total spending in the March 5 primary, per AdImpact.

Polls show Schiff — the biggest, big-spender — consistently in the lead, with Porter and Garvey battling for second place. Lee is trailing far behind.

While Garvey’s own spending has been meager, Schiff has opened up his wallet and treated him to tens of millions in TV, digital ads and mailers.

Schiff has spent and benefited from $44.8 million in ads; while Porter has $18.6 million in ad support.

AdImpact also looked at the ads by broad category and found that both Schiff and Porter mentioned housing the most in their broadcast ads.

After housing, one of the state’s thorniest issues, Schiff’s ads mentioned jobs, Donald Trump, unions and the economy. Porter’s biggest-used categories were special interests, health care and the environment.

IT’S THURSDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to ccadelago@politico.com or send a shout on X. DMs are open.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

FILE - California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs the fast food bill surrounded by fast food workers at the SEIU Local 721 in Los Angeles, on Thursday, Sept. 28, 2023. Republican leaders in California are calling for an investigation into why a new state law requiring a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers includes an exemption for restaurants like Panera Bread. (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)

California Gov. Gavin Newsom signs a fast food bill surrounded by fast food workers at the SEIU Local 721 in Los Angeles, on Sept. 28, 2023. Damian Dovarganes, File | AP

BREAD & CIRCUSES: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration is pushing back on suggestions that he helped a donor get out of paying the state’s new minimum wage for fast-food restaurant workers.

The administration said today that an exemption for restaurants that produce their own bread on premises doesn’t apply to the Panera restaurant chain owned by donor and former high school classmate Greg Flynn. It’s an attempt to contain a backlash that has roiled the Capitol since the recent publication of a story by Bloomberg News.

“The Governor never met with Flynn about this bill and this story is absurd," spokesman Alex Stack said in a statement. "Our legal team has reviewed and it appears Panera is not exempt from the law.”

The Bloomberg story added further controversy to an already bitter debate over a law that will raise the minimum wage for fast-food workers from $16 to $20 starting in April. The story detailed how the 2023 bill was amended to carve out restaurants that bake bread for sale onsite. Newsom’s analysis, however, challenges a basic premise of the story, which prompted a Republican pile-on. Assembly Republican Leader James Gallagher called for an investigation into what his counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Brian Jones, called “Corrupt and UNACCEPTABLE.” — Jeremy B. White

ON THE BEATS

PULSE ON THE POLLS: With just a few days left to vote, a new survey from Emerson College puts Schiff at the front of the race for California Senate with 28 percent, followed by Garvey at 20 percent, Porter at 17 percent and Lee at 8 percent.

The survey, done in partnership with Inside California Politics and The Hill, isn’t a huge departure from other recent polling we’ve seen, but has been met with a big dose of skepticism from some voting data experts, who take serious issue with the way it’s weighted. Keep your eyes peeled for some final polling as we approach March 5.

Assemblyman Phil Ting, D-San Francisco, participates in a legislative hearing in April 2020, in Sacramento, California. Rich Pedroncelli, File | AP

ALMA MATTERS: Assemblymember Phil Ting is trying again to ban legacy admissions at California colleges, testing whether the Supreme Court’s recent prohibition of affirmative action could boost a proposal that failed in 2019.

This time around, Ting is armed with new data. A watered-down version of his 2019 bill required private universities to report how many of their students were legacies, and the results are in. At Stanford University, 13.8 percent of students admitted in 2022 had ties to donors or alumni, according to Ting’s office. At USC, the number was 14.4 percent.

Both universities said they haven’t yet taken a position on Ting’s new bill, which would deny state financial aid to institutions that give preferential treatment to legacy applicants. Ting announced the proposal on Wednesday but it hasn’t yet been set for a hearing. — Blake Jones

SETTLING UP: Attorney General Rob Bonta announced the latest in a string of renter protection settlements today, taking up the cause of tenant rights as he explores a possible race for governor.

Two Bakersfield landlords and their property company agreed to pay $213,000 to settle allegations that they wrongfully evicted more than two dozen tenants, Bonta said in a statement.

“Today's settlement sends a strong message: Tenant Protection Act is the law — and it must be followed by everyone, everywhere in California,” Bonta said.

The settlement is another installment in a push by Bonta to crack down on landlords and property managers accused of violating the rights of renters.

The three settlements so far total about $3 million. — Sarah Grace Taylor

WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

NOT-SO-FOREIGN AFFAIRS: The decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan is roiling the race to replace Rep. Adam Schiff in a district with the highest concentration of Armenian Americans in the country. (POLITICO)

HAZARDOUS DUTY: An audit by the city of San Diego found that many police officers are working so much overtime that they are endangering themselves and the public in addition to blowing out the budget. (Voice of San Diego)

FREE AGENT NO MORE: The typically private Shohei Ohtani revealed in a middle-of-the-night Instagram post that he’s now married to a Japanese woman, surprising even the Japanese media who cover the Dodger star’s every move. (Los Angeles Times)

Follow us on Twitter