Forget about a Senate Mayorkas trial

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POLITICO Playbook

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DRIVING THE DAY

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — “US and UK launch new attacks on Houthis in Yemen,” POLITICO … “U.S. Says It Hit a Houthi Cruise Missile That Threatened Red Sea Ships,” NYT … “U.S. Strikes Steer Clear of Iran’s Red Lines,” WSJ … “Iran issues a warning about suspected spy ships,” AP

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas testifies before the House Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill July 26, 2023. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

Democrats are planning to scuttle the House GOP’s dreams of a long, drawn-out process that drags DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas through the mud. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

STOP US IF YOU’VE HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE — Today is supposedly the day! At any minute now, Senate negotiators who’ve been haggling out an agreement for four months are expected to drop the text of their much-anticipated — and, at least on the right, already much-maligned — border deal.

But first, a little bit of impeachment news for you …

DEMS PLOT TO SIDESTEP MAYORKAS TRIAL — As Republicans have taken steps toward impeaching Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, political prognosticators — admittedly, yours truly included — have warned about the possibility of a high-profile, border-related Senate impeachment trial falling smack in middle of an already contentious election year.

As fun as that sounds, you can forget it.

Multiple Democratic sources in the Senate as well as in the administration tell Playbook that the party is planning to scuttle the House GOP’s dreams of a long, drawn-out process that drags Mayorkas — and the Biden administration writ large — through the mud.

With the House slated to impeach Mayorkas next week, Democrats have quietly been in talks about the best way to kill this as fast as they can. And it turns out they have a bunch of options on that front.

They’ve got some hefty legal brains who agree with this play. Impeachment scholar JOSHUA MATZ, who worked on both DONALD TRUMP impeachments and has written extensively on the topic, tells Playbook that Democrats have a host of solid justifications to forgo a Senate trial altogether.

The first is the most obvious: The founders didn’t want impeachment to be used for everyday policy disagreements.

“Impeachment trials are meant to be deadly serious business for matters of state — not free publicity for the House majority to air policy attacks on the current administration,” Matz said. The existing impeachment articles are “so manifestly about policy disagreement rather than anything that could arguably qualify as high crimes and misdemeanors, that it would be unwarranted to waste the Senate’s time with the trial on the matter.”

OTHER JUSTIFICATIONS FOR DISMISSAL: Matz says that beyond arguing about the abuse of the impeachment power, Democrats could point out the following:

— Bloated articles. One of the most basic rules every prosecutor knows is that each claim needs to specify a single charge. But in their drafted Mayorkas articles, Republicans list a host of grievances under each claim, which is problematic because of due process issues.

“The articles are formally deficient in so many ways that any trial would be flagrantly unfair and create such grave due process issues that it would be outrageous to even proceed,” Matz says.

— Conviction confusion. Due process isn’t the only problem with bloated articles. What if a senator finds Mayorkas guilty on one allegation in an article but not another? How does he or she vote? And if Mayorkas is convicted — which won’t ever happen, but humor us for a second — would senators have reached that threshold because they agree with subparts of the article but not the entire premise?

“You would get to two-thirds only by virtue of the fact that they are lumping so many separate, specific, but unrelated and distinct charges under a single heading,” Matz says.

Not fair.

— Bad precedent. Matz argues that holding a Senate trial on this matter would only further encourage abuse of the impeachment power by rewarding the House majority with what they really want: not a somber process about high crimes and misdemeanors, but a PR spectacle focused on the administration’s border policies, which the GOP sees as a winning issue in an election year.

— Logistical impossibilities. It’s difficult to imagine how to oversee a process when the whole of the federal government’s immigration policies — not just Mayorkas himself — appears to be on trial.

“This would resemble something closer to an undergraduate parliamentary debate more than it would resemble a Senate ‘trial’ in any sense that a competent person would use that word,” Matz tells Playbook.

SO HOW DO DEMS SIDESTEP THIS? Senate Democrats — and more than a few Republicans not eager to engage in what they see as a frivolous waste of time — have several options at their disposal. Here are the benefits and challenges of each:

1. Offer a motion to dismiss the charges. Senate impeachment rules could allow senators to offer this motion at the outset of the trial or after initial opening arguments have been made. Or, the trial rules themselves could mandate such a motion receive a vote, as they did in the second Trump impeachment. All it takes is an up-or-down majority to dismiss.

Benefits: It’s the most straightforward. There’s clear precedent for this. And Democrats could bury this messy matter very quickly.

Drawbacks: Some lawmakers may fear voter backlash if they’re not taking the charges seriously — particularly because the public ranks border matters among their greatest concerns for the country. (Though maybe don’t count on this, since even Mr. Middle-Of-The-Road, Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) himself, is calling to dismiss the charges.) Democrats may also want an opportunity to rebut the GOP’s charges.

2. Raise a point of order against the articles. Students of the Trump years will recall that Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) did something like this ahead of Trump’s second impeachment. Back then, Paul raised a jurisdictional objection: Since Trump was no longer president, wasn’t he outside the scope of what the Senate could rule on in a trial? The Senate took up the matter for a vote but quashed Paul’s effort.

Benefits: This is the most bare-knuckle way to kill the impeachment ASAP. In theory, it could be done as soon as the articles are carried over from the House and well before trial rules are even drafted or debated, thus snuffing out headlines on an issue the administration doesn’t want to discuss.

Drawbacks: Paul’s vote aside, there’s little precedent for this, so no one knows how it would go down. Would it go to the presiding officer, the parliamentarian or the full Senate for a vote on whether the point of order was even in order?

3. Refer it to committee. Senate rules allow the chamber to basically ship non-presidential impeachment articles off to a committee to deal with them. In modern judicial impeachments, senators have convened special committees with half-dozen or so senators from each party.

The benefits: The process would allow Dems to look like they take the charges seriously while avoiding a spectacle that would eat up precious floor time. The committee would hear evidence and testimony, then report back to the Senate their findings and/or recommendations, allowing the chamber to consider the matter quickly.

Downside: This requires work and time. The chamber has to create the committee, get it up and running and appoint senators to oversee the articles and report back. Republicans could also appoint fire-breathers to the committee and try to make a spectacle of this as well. And lastly, the Senate still has to deal with the impeachment charges when the panel finishes its work. They can’t just refer it to committee and bury it. That means, as the panel works, the media will be in a total frenzy of impeachment news — not exactly good for the administration. And the committee process could drag out for months.

Good Sunday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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QUESTION OF THE DAY — “[H]ow many Biden speeches must be shouted down until Democrats realize that a hot war in Gaza this fall may mean 30,000 fewer votes apiece in Madison, Dearborn and Ann Arbor and therefore the presidency?”

Our colleague Jonathan Martin has a must-read on the real third-party peril Biden faces this fall — not from a centrist No Labels candidate, but instead from the left.

The Biden camp is wising up to the threat, JMart writes, and is plotting “a multi-pronged offensive against [ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.], [JILL] STEIN and [CORNEL] WEST, some of which will come from the campaign and some from outside entities.”

QUOTE OF THE DAY — From WaPo’s Kara Voght and Ashley Parker: “‘Thanks goodness we have TAYLOR SWIFT,’ one Hill Swiftie joked about her obsession with the pop star, ‘otherwise I wonder if I’d be into QAnon.’”

SUNDAY BEST …

— Trump on whether he’d impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods in a second term, on Fox News’ “Sunday Morning Futures”: “No, I would say maybe it’s going to be more than that. Because we’re going to have — look, I want China to do great. I do. And I like President XI [JINPING] a lot. He was a very good friend of mine during my term. … It’s not sustainable for this country to lose $500 billion a year.”

— National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN on the retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed militias, on NBC’s “Meet the Press”: “It began with the strikes on Friday night, but that is not the end of it. We intend to take additional strikes and additional action to continue to send a clear message that the United States will respond when our forces are attacked, or people are killed. At this point, we are still assessing the question of how many casualties there were … We do believe that the strikes had good effect in degrading the capabilities of these militia groups to attack us.” More from Katherine Long on Sullivan’s ABC appearance

— NIKKI HALEY on whether she hopes there are verdicts in the Trump cases before the convention, on CNN’s “State of the Union”: “The American people deserve to know which of these cases are legitimate and which ones aren’t. …He’s going to be spending more time in a courtroom than he’s going to be spending on the campaign trail. We’ve got a country in disarray and a world on fire. We need a president that’s going to give us eight years of focus and discipline, not one that’s going to be sitting there ranting about how he’s a victim and how this isn't right and how this isn’t just.”

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) on whether Biden needs a congressional authorization for use of military force for his Middle East strikes, on “Fox News Sunday”: “Absolutely not. … President Biden has all the authority under Article II to protect troops in the field. … Iran is trying to drive us out of the Mideast. And the response we’re giving is inadequate to the task. They do not believe or fear that we will hit what matters most to them: their oil infrastructure or their leadership.”

TOP-EDS: A roundup of the week’s must-read opinion pieces.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

At the White House

Biden will leave LA and travel to Las Vegas, where he’ll participate in a campaign event in the afternoon and deliver remarks at a campaign event in the evening.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive briefings and conduct internal meetings with staff.

 
PLAYBOOK READS

President Joe Biden answers questions while departing the White House.

President Joe Biden landed a whopping victory in South Carolina that delivered just the show of strength he’d hoped for. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

9 THINGS FOR YOUR RADAR

1. BIDEN’S BIG WIN: The president trounced his competition with roughly 96% in the South Carolina Democratic primary yesterday — which, of course, he hand-picked to be the first delegate-producing contest after the Palmetto State saved him in 2020. It was a whopping victory that delivered just the show of strength he’d hoped for, as MARIANNE WILLIAMSON and Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) tumbled to just 2% of the vote each, The Post and Courier’s Caitlin Byrd reports. Notably, though turnout was expectedly low for a fairly uncompetitive race, it was higher in heavily Black areas, NBC’s Steve Kornacki notes.

“Biden was hoping that South Carolina’s vote would help assuage concerns about Democratic enthusiasm and, more specifically, his standing with Black voters,” Elena Schneider, Lauren Egan and Brakkton Booker report from Columbia. “And, to a large degree, he got what he wanted.” Still, it’s hard overall to draw conclusions about what the results might mean for November.

What was surprising came moments after Biden won in South Carolina: Rep. JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.) suggested that perhaps New Hampshire’s unsanctioned primary should actually translate to convention delegates after all, and DNC Chair JAIME HARRISON quickly indicated that he was open to it, Lisa Kashinsky recounts. “Doing so would be a remarkable — but not unprecedented — about-face for the DNC,” she writes, after the Granite State was penalized for refusing to move its primary after South Carolina. (It no doubt helps that Biden ended up winning big there!)

But, but, but: The latest NBC general-election poll finds Trump widening his lead over Biden nationally to 5 points, 47% to 42%, as Biden suffers massive deficits on the economy, immigration and competence, hitting an all-time low in his presidential approval rating. Trump and Biden are basically tied among both Hispanics and voters under 35.

2. IMMIGRATION/ISRAEL LATEST: The bill text is finally expected today for the Senate’s major package of immigration policy changes, border reinforcements, Ukraine aid, Israel aid, the Afghan Adjustment Act, a fentanyl supply chain crackdown and more. Burgess Everett reported last night that the final hurdle was ironing out spending. Major changes to the country’s immigration system would include a much higher bar for migrants to be granted asylum and an automatically triggered authority to shut down the border when there are 5,000 border encounters daily.

But Speaker MIKE JOHNSON took an even tougher line against the legislation in a new letter yesterday, saying the lack of House involvement in negotiations has “eliminated the ability for swift consideration of any legislation,” Jordain Carney reports.

Instead, Johnson’s charging forward with a new stand-alone bill to send aid to Israel — this time without accompanying IRS cuts that repelled Democrats last year — from Rep. KEN CALVERT (R-Calif.), with plans to bring it up for a vote this week. That could put the Senate in a difficult position and undermine the bigger bill. And it will also force a conundrum for House Democrats, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports: More of them are expected to vote for the bill this time around, but the omission of any humanitarian assistance to Palestinians will lose many votes too.

3. BIDEN PUNTS: “President Biden Declines Super Bowl Interview for Second Consecutive Year,” by Variety’s Brian Steinberg: “An interview with the U.S. President in the hours before the Super Bowl has become a tradition in recent decades. Now that custom seems to be in danger of dying out. … ‘We hope viewers enjoy watching what they tuned in for — the game,’ said BEN LaBOLT, a White House spokesman. But the decision may be seen as an intriguing one.”

 

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4. DOCU-DRAMA: Biden’s team is preparing for the outcome of special counsel ROBERT HUR’s classified documents probe — and worrying that the final report could be politically damaging, though they don’t anticipate criminal charges, Axios’ Alex Thompson reports. Aides to the president don’t know the timing, but they expect the report could come even as soon as this week, as Hur has already wrapped up investigating. And they fear “embarrassing details — possibly with photos — on how Biden stored documents,” which they’re concerned about Trump trying to weaponize to draw a false equivalency with his legal troubles.

5. HALEY’S OTHER HALF: As she keeps plugging away at the GOP presidential primary, Haley is doing so without her husband, Maj. MICHAEL HALEY, who’s deployed for a year in Djibouti. That’s an added difficulty for Nikki Haley, who has long leaned on him as her dependable “rock” while her political career skyrocketed, NYT’s Ken Bensinger and Matthew Rosenberg report in a new deep dive.

Michael Haley, they find, prefers to stay in the background; he’s an alligator hunter, a jokester, a man who transcended a troubled childhood. “A former foster child who met his wife when he was 19, Major Haley has largely orbited her ambitions since. While her career marched upward, his meandered; he worked for her parents and ran a struggling bartering venture before he found the military. More recently, he was involved in a casino deal and currently has an ill-defined role with a small defense company.”

6. NEXT UP: “Trump’s team worries about a hollow victory in Nevada,” by Axios’ Sophia Cai: “Nevada’s confusing combination of a state-run primary and party-run caucuses has set up a scenario in which Trump could get get fewer votes in the caucuses than rival Nikki Haley does in the GOP primary. … Senior Trump advisers became unhappy with the campaign's state director, ALIDA BENSON — who advocated for Trump to participate in the caucus — after realizing the caucus planning was not coming along as well as they liked.”

7. SINEMATOGRAPHY: KARI LAKE is the frontrunner for the GOP Senate nomination in Arizona, but recent turmoil at the top ranks of the state party has some Republicans looking elsewhere — and particularly to incumbent independent KYRSTEN SINEMA, WSJ’s Julie Bykowicz and Eliza Collins report from Phoenix. Though many Republicans see Lake’s victory as inevitable, others “feel betrayed” by her and are talking about MARK LAMB (a long shot), DOUG DUCEY (who said no) or really shaking things up with Sinema, “who is captivating some of the state’s business-minded and politically generous Republicans.” She hasn’t said yet whether she’ll run.

8. BEYOND THE BELTWAY: “Moms for Liberty faces new challenges and growing pushback over its conservative education agenda,” by CNN’s Denise Royal, Carlos Suarez and Ray Sanchez in Viera, Florida

9. BIDEN’S TIME IN THE WILDERNESS: “When Joe Biden lost his purpose,” by WaPo’s Matt Viser: After his son BEAU BIDEN died and Joe Biden left the vice presidency, “[h]is path for once was not mapped out by a series of political campaigns. Seemingly out of politics, Biden pursued a range of private options for the first time, trying to figure out what he wanted to do and who he wanted to be, all while seeking to stabilize a family reeling from death and addiction, love affairs and divorce.”

 
PLAYBOOKERS

Tucker Carlson appears to be in Russia.

Antony Blinken is heading back to the Middle East.

Nikki Haley was on “SNL” last night, admitting she should have been clear that slavery caused the Civil War.

Donald Trump is wondering if he looks like Elvis.

Ann Coulter thinks it might be helpful if Trump died.

Itamar Ben-Gvir said he’d prefer Trump to Joe Biden on Israel.

IN MEMORIAM — “Mike Gill, former Trump official, dies days after being shot in DMV carjacking spree,” by Fox 5 DC’s Shomari Stone: “When he died, Gill was senior vice president for Capital Markets at the Housing Policy Council. He previously worked as chief of staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission during the Trump administration.”

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a birthday party for Adrienne Arsht last night at a taping of “Broadway’s Leading Men” featuring the American Pops Orchestra at Howard University’s Cramton Auditorium: Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson, Anthony Fauci and Christine Grady, Carol Melton, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, Fred Kempe, Alan Fleischmann and Dafna Tapiero, Sophia Sokolowski and Luka Ignac.

TRANSITION — Jill Burke is now chief of staff for the Monroe County Legislature in New York. She previously was deputy comms director/press secretary for Rep. Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.).

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Joseph Hoefer, principal at Monument Advocacy, and Ellie Cook, partner at Luse Gorman, welcomed Louise Elizabeth Hoefer on Tuesday. PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Fed Chair Jerome PowellHunter Biden … Reps. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.), Sanford Bishop (D-Ga.) and Michael Guest (R-Miss.) … Adrienne Arsht … former VP Dan Quayle … POLITICO’s Annie Rees and Mike Soraghan Nicolle Wallace … CNN’s Shimon ProkupeczEric GarcettiJohn Czwartacki … Vox’s Sean Illing Matt McDonald … White House’s Ilan GoldenbergNissa Koerner-Schostak … former VA Secretary Jim NicholsonSusanna Billings John LaBombardShantanu Tata Eli WoerpelThad Inge of Van Scoyoc Associates … Zachary Mitchiner of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s office … Seth Michaels of the Union of Concerned Scientists … Dan BergerMorgan Rako GangAnn ListonTaimoor Shah … retired Adm. Dennis Blair Amelia Chassé Alcivar Stan Settles of Sen. Bill Hagerty’s (R-Tenn.) office … Laetitia Garriott de Cayeux

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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