30,000 DEAD: Israeli troops fired on a crowd of Palestinians awaiting aid in Gaza City today, killing more than 100 people — bringing the death toll in the territory to more than 30,000 since October, per local health officials, The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA and KAREEM CHEHAYEB report. Witnesses told the outlet that troops opened fire on civilians as they pulled flour and canned goods off trucks. Israeli officials acknowledged that soldiers shot at civilians, but said they did so after the crowd approached in a threatening way. The military initially said that “dozens were killed and injured from pushing, trampling and being run over by the trucks.” As the death toll continues to rise, aid groups have warned that it’s becoming increasingly challenging to deliver assistance to Palestinians due to the difficulty of working with Israel’s military, ongoing fighting and massive crowds overwhelming the convoys. A quarter of the 2.3 million Gazans face starvation, while 80 percent have been displaced from their homes, according to the United Nations. Aid group representatives told our own ERIN BANCO that they are prepared to evacuate from Gaza in advance of a potential ground invasion by the Israeli military on March 10. If those organizations pull out of Gaza, it could severely limit Gazans’ access to food and medical care. It’s unclear if Israel has a plan to take on aid distribution. This morning, Biden walked back his assessment that a hostage deal to pause fighting in Gaza could be reached by Monday: “I was on the telephone with the people in the region. I’m still — probably not by Monday, but I’m hopeful,” he told reporters on the South Lawn. U.S. officials, including several from the CIA, have worked with Israeli and Qatar officials in Doha in recent days to try and reach a ceasefire and hostage deal by Monday. But that effort is unlikely to come to a close this weekend, a person with knowledge of negotiations said. The U.S. and Israel are still waiting to hear back from Hamas on whether it will agree to a six-week pause in fighting and a new proposal for a prisoners-for-hostages exchange, that person said. The Biden administration, which has been facing mounting pressure from lawmakers to ensure aid is delivered, is now considering dropping assistance into the Gaza Strip via military planes, four U.S. officials told Axios’ BARAK RAVID. Asked about that possibility of airdropping aid, MICK MULROY, formerly a top Pentagon official for the Middle East, told NatSec Daily that other pathways are needed: “I think the U.S. will be much more effective at it than others to date, but it will not make much of a difference. There needs to be multiple ground and maritime points open to make a difference.” ISRAEL’S SLICE OF AID: Israel appears to be becoming increasingly involved in aid distribution in the Gaza Strip. The trucks that attempted to deliver aid to Gazans in the north today were supported through independent, commercial contractors and organized through COGAT — the Israeli military group that coordinates humanitarian access to the enclave, two people familiar with the situation told our own ERIN BANCO. Pictures on social media appear to show food boxes labeled "Ummah Welfare Trust" — a U.K.-based charity. Israel has in recent weeks largely blocked international aid groups’ movement into the northern part of Gaza, the people said, instead trying to independently coordinate convoys into the northern neighborhoods. The majority of the aid organizations, including UN-funded groups, are situated in the south along the Egyptian border. If Israel were to take on more of the responsibility for distributing the aid, it could potentially avoid or lessen the criticism it has received from Western officials and humanitarian organizations for blocking access to Gaza and bombarding crucial medical infrastructure, including hospitals. PUTIN’S NUCLEAR THREAT: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN warned that sending Western troops into Ukraine could spark nuclear war, our own DENIS LEVEN reports. Were NATO countries to send soldiers to help Kyiv — as French President EMMANUEL MACRON suggested could happen — the consequences would be “tragic,” Putin said in a speech to Russia's parliament today. "We too have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. This really threatens a conflict with nuclear weapons, and thus the destruction of civilization," he added. Putin has warned of using nuclear force before, but the latest threat underscores the Kremlin’s increased confidence following Russian troops’ advancements in western Ukraine, among other successes in the past month. Russia further warned Macron of taking action: “Before making such statements, Macron would do well to remember how it ended for Napoleon and his soldiers, more than 600,000 of whom were left lying in the damp earth,” said VYACHESLAV VOLODIN, a politician who’s a close Putin ally, referring to the disastrous French invasion of Russia in 1812. Macron stood by his remarks today: “Every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through and measured," he told reporters. Meanwhile, Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS told POLITICO's Power Play podcast that "everything" is on the table to help Ukraine beat Putin. Leaders must discuss all possibilities behind closed doors, she said, including what more can be done to assist Ukraine. Read: Putin’s vision for Russia’s next 6 years: Keep fighting, quit drinking, have babies by our own EVA HARTOG and DENIS LEVEN WORLDWIDE MANHUNT: Ukrainian special services are hunting Russians abroad, ANDRIY YUSOV, an official with the country’s military intelligence, told our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA. “Ukrainian intelligence has to be present wherever there is a need to destroy the enemy, which is waging a full-scale war against Ukraine. We are present wherever it is possible to weaken the interests of Russia,” Yusov said in Kyiv. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
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