| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum | | Presented by |  | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → Poland’s President ANDRZEJ DUDA is visiting Canada for a whirlwind trip. Following along like a shadow: The question of what the bar should be for defense-spending ahead of a big NATO summit this summer. → DOMINIC LEBLANC tried to clamp down on speculation he’s prepping a leadership bid. → Who’s up. Who’s down. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Poland's President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Warsaw, Poland, on Feb. 26. | Czarek Sokolowski/AP | HEY, MID SPENDER — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is set to meet with Poland’s President ANDRZEJ DUDA this weekend. The visit comes fresh off the heels of his meeting with DONALD TRUMP, and Duda has been consistently calling for a 3 percent floor on defense spending among NATO allies for some time. Duda used a joint White House visit last month to push for NATO allies to boost their defense spending and urge Congress to pass the aid package for Ukraine. Those two issues are almost certain to come up with Trudeau in private. More on that meeting later. The key question is whether the PM will be put on the spot, mostly likely by the media, given the Liberal government’s precarious position on not being about to meet Canada’s NATO defense spending target anytime soon — nevermind 3 percent. It’s hard to imagine it won’t come up. But it’s not just this visit that could snap the issue into focus. Canada will face some serious awkwardness alongside its NATO allies this summer at the leaders’ summit in Washington set for July. — Livin’ on a prayer: CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s latest budget, following a major defense policy update, puts Canada on track to ramp up defense spending, but only about halfway to closing the gap to the NATO 2-percent defense-spend commitment. — Mixed bag: Canada’s former ambassador to NATO, KERRY BUCK, told Playbook the C$8.1 billion is a significant enough increase that it will help Canada manage its way through the summit. “Will inoculate us from criticism? No, not at all. It will blunt some of the criticism,” she said. “But there's still an expectation that 2 percent is a floor, not a ceiling, and that each ally will have a concrete plan to reach that floor. We don't have that yet, so the issue will definitely still be raised.” — Spending plans panned: Past U.S. ambassadors to NATO slagged Canada’s half stepping when POLITICO reached out to them this past week: KURT VOLKER called it a “big mistake on Canada’s part.” IVO DAALDER said: “What Ottawa proposes will neither provide Canada with the military means it needs in a dangerous world nor satisfy any of its NATO allies.” — The voice that really matters: The Biden admin has been muted on criticism, even in the president’s visit last year. U.S. Ambassador to Canada DAVID COHEN praised the government’s latest roadmap. Former diplomat COLIN ROBERTSON tells Playbook Canada’s allies will still “look to us and say, ‘You're a rich country. You can afford this.’” But Canada is also checking the right boxes: Funding for NORAD modernization, the purchase of the F-35s and the money set aside for new sensors and more infrastructure in the North, and beefing up the brigade in Latvia. “That will keep the Americans satisfied, and that's really the most important part,” he said. Defense Minister BILL BLAIR has insisted that key procurement purchases will eventually push Canada over the 2-percent mark. PMJT even raised the prospect of nuclear submarines. — Shopping list: National Defence Deputy Minister BILL MATTHEWS told the Commons defense committee earlier this week the department has already met with conventional submarine makers and is working on an analysis of options comparing conventional vs. nuclear, plus the number of subs, for an eventual decision by the government. Robertson points out, though, nuclear subs each come with a multi-billion-dollar price tag. “It's not just the purchase of the subs, but we would probably have to get Americans to do the servicing,” he added. — The biggest question: What will happen should DONALD TRUMP win the fall election, following his threats to abandon NATO allies negligent in their spending? ALTHIA RAJ has tackled the Trump/NATO question in detail on her podcast. Set your count-down clock: 200 days left until the U.S. votes for its next president. | | | | A message from Google: At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit: g.co/families | | | | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | ITINERARY PREVIEW — Duda is skipping Ottawa. His Canadian visit is the result of two invitations from the Polish community and from Canadian Hydrogen Convention organizers to deliver a keynote at its Edmonton conference Tuesday. His official program begins today in Vancouver with separate meetings with the province’s Lt. Gov. JANET AUSTIN and B.C. Premier DAVID EBY. On Saturday, he heads to the island to visit Esquimalt, just outside of Victoria, to visit the military base there — and to meet Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU for a bilat. Duda’s next stop will be Edmonton where he has high-level meetings with Alberta Lt. Gov. SALMA LAKHANI and Premier DANIELLE SMITH. Poland’s Ambassador to Canada WITOLD DZIELSKI called Playbook from Vancouver to chat about what to expect from the first-ever visit of a Polish head of state to western Canada. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. It seems CFB Esquimalt was intentionally picked as a stop to focus the mind on defense discussions. What ask is the president expected to make to the prime minister in Esquimalt? Will it be to increase defense spending to 3 percent of GDP? The gentlemen are meeting regularly. The last meeting between Prime Minister Trudeau and President Duda was about a month ago in Poland, in Warsaw. We are in a very close conversation, as allies, on very many topics. It will be, in a way, a continuation of the conversation with the Washington NATO Summit in mind. … I don't think there will be any spectacular requests from both sides. Canadians are right now at the eastern flank. They work very closely with the Polish military. Together, we train the Ukrainians on a number of topics together. In terms of 3 percent, this is something that the Polish president has been promoting for some time. … We need to make sure that NATO remains the strongest military alliance in the world, it's for our sake. In order to do this, and this is well understood within the NATO framework, we need to provide more funding. The war in Ukraine has shown that things happen which require NATO's attention and require us being prepared. This is something very serious. Poland treats this in a very serious manner. I know Canadians treat it in a very serious manner as well. Are you anticipating protestors to show up during the tour to show their opposition against the president’s past comments about the LGBTQ community ? I don't get into politics. We live in democracies, pluralism is the natural element of any democracy. In Canada, in Poland, people have different views. Some people vote for Prime Minister Trudeau — others vote for Mr. Poilievre. The social positions of different politicians are simply different. There are people that like them, there are people that don't like them. It’s really not a relevant topic for me as a diplomat. It's worth noting that the Polish community in particular in Canada has been very supportive of President Duda. … He has quite significant support — which does not mean that there are those that have different views — that's democracy. That's how we operate. Pros can read about Poland’s energy interests in Canada in our Friday memo. | | | | A message from Google:   | | |
| | Where the leaders are | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU meets with students in Victoria, B.C. at 10 a.m. local time (1 p.m. ET) to promote his government’s shiny new budget. He holds a related announcement with Citizens’ Services Minister TERRY BEECH on research and education funding just after. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE hosts a 5:30 p.m. fundraiser at RattleSnake Point Golf Club in Milton, Ont., where the party's candidate is PARM GILL. 338Canada projection: Toss-up. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Richmond, B.C., to take part in a 2 p.m. (5 p.m. ET) rally for food-service workers who recently voted for strike action seeking better wages. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in her riding and will attend a Beacon Community Services ceremony and luncheon.
| | | DULY NOTED | | — Health Minister MARK HOLLAND is at University of Waterloo at 2 p.m. today to promote support for students, alongside MPs BRYAN MAY, VALERIE BRADFORD and BARDISH CHAGGER, complete with media scrum. — Trade Minister MARY NG will head to South Korea on Sunday where she will lead a trade mission through Thursday. | | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
UP: Big Yacht Energy in Parliament as Trudeau and Poilievre spar over who is coziest with Canada’s uber-wealthy.
DOWN: The Liberal government’s fiscal room to maneuver — risky in case of a surprise economic shock or other unforeseen Big Bad Thing, or even in preparing for a big pre-election budget next year. | | | For your radar | | |
HATS IN THE RING — Canada’s chattering class didn’t miss a headline this week outing a potential Trudeau successor in the making: “DOMINIC LEBLANC wants his close friend Justin Trudeau’s job,” penned by Globe and Mail columnist LAWRENCE MARTIN. Poilievre even tweeted: “Et tu, Dom?”
— Not much of a secret: Hill types have floated LeBlanc’s name in conversations for months amid rampant speculation about who could or should replace the unpopular PM when the time comes. The piece dished he’s been excited about the prospect in exploratory discussions over “whisky and cigars” with a “former Liberal cabinet minister.” — Curious timing: Landing in the wake of budget day, it kinda, sorta left the impression like the knives are about ready to come out. A reporter caught him before question period and asked simply, “Do you plan to run for Liberal leader?” — Nip it in the bud: LeBlanc replied, “No, I plan to be a candidate in the next election under Prime Minister Trudeau’s leadership.” “I’m very happy,” he continued. “I’m excited about that. I’m focused on the responsibilities he gave me. It’s a big job. I’m enjoying it and I’m optimistic that our team and the prime minister will make the case to Canadians as to why we should be re-elected.” — No further questions: He did not respond on whether he’s behind-the-scenes organizing or whether he would confirm discussions probing a potential leadership bid. | | | MEDIA ROOM | | |  CIA Director William Burns arrives for a briefing on Ukraine at the U.S. Capitol on Sept. 20, 2023. | Getty Images | — POLITICO’s MATT BERG and PHELIM KINE report that CIA Director WILLIAM BURNSbrought a warning for lawmakers to Capitol Hill: If you don’t approve aid to Ukraine now, Kyiv could lose the war by the end of the year. — BILL CURRY is on "The Decibel" this morning to talk about ArriveCAN and the government's outsourcing problem. — The Star’s TONDA MACCHARLES tallies up the groups pushing back over the Liberals’ latest budget and finds the government’s got an uphill battle to sell it to the public. — As MEGAN DELAIREwrites for CTV, pollster NIK NANOS says anger toward the government “hit a new record” since his firm started tracking it in 2018. — Scoop from CTV’s JUDY TRINH: “Lack of detention space could force CBSA to release detainees, internal memo warns.” — KRISTIN RAWORTHwrites in the National Post: “Harassment is apparently fine, as long as those with the wrong politics are the target.” — WALLIS SNOWDON reports for CBC that Alberta is bracing for another long, rough wildfire season with potentially “more volatile” conditions in store this summer due to drought.
| | | PROZONE | | Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: Labor’s salvo against Poilievre. In other news for Pro readers: — Biden could miss AUKUS deadline, McCaul says. — Nation’s top drug enforcer: We’re not doing enough to fight fentanyl. — Dombrovskis says EU assessing new threat to U.S. critical minerals pact. — DOE expects LNG permit pause to end by March, official says. — How Japan beat Europe to become America’s BFF on the moon.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to EMMA GODMERE of CBC’s The House, former MPs PAUL MANLY and JOHN WESTON and Crestview’s CAMERON DOHERTY.
On Saturday: Journalists CHRISTIAN PAAS-LANG, EVAN SOLOMON and DANIELLE CRITTENDEN. On Sunday: Former MP ANDY MITCHELL. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: CONNIE WALKER in Time Magazine’s list of most influential people … PQ Leader PAUL ST-PIERRE PLAMONDON with a cheeky tweet after being called “milk soup” (hot tempered). Supply management critics: clip and save. A long list of C-suiters, investors and founders opposed to Budget 2024 tax hikes on corporations. As of Thursday evening, the open letter to JUSTIN TRUDEAU and CHRYSTIA FREELAND included signatures from Toronto (373), Vancouver (92), Montreal (74), Calgary (73), Ottawa (46), Waterloo (38), Kitchener (32), Edmonton (19), Mississauga (16), and hundreds more from 900-plus companies in over 120 communities. OMAR ALGHABRA, hanging his portrait on the wall at Transport … LISA RAITT, pointing out she remains the lone woman in the long line of former transport ministers. Linebacker SOLOMON ELIMIMIAN posing with BEA BRUSKE, as the Canadian Football League Players' Association joins the CLC as an affiliate. At PIERRE POILIEVRE's late-March Westmount fundraiser: BENJAMIN AHDOOT, DAVID AMIEL, JONATHAN AMIEL, ALDO BENSADOUN, DAVID BENSADOUN, ERIC BOYKO, DAVID CAPE, MARY ANNE CARIGNAN, DAN CHETRIT, LEO HOUSAKOS, DON KITTICK, ANDREW LUTFY, PIERRE PAUL-HUS, NEIL ROSSY, JOSEPH G. SHAPIRO, AMOS SOCHACZEVSKI, YAFFA TEGEGNE, and JOSHUA WOLFE. — Israel's consul general in Montreal, PAUL HIRSCHSON, also joined the party — but not in a partisan capacity. Hirschson tells Playbook he has attended Liberal events, too, and his goal is to “learn more about the various conversations underway in Canada — something which contributes to my understanding of who and where Canada is currently positioned." Movers and shakers: DAVE CARROLL is seeking the Conservative nod in the revamped federal riding of Sackville-Bedford-Preston, N.S. … Texture Communications brought on RACHEL STRONG as senior director. LAURA MITCHELL, deputy chief of staff in JONATHAN WILKINSON’s office, has officially passed the director of operations title off to KIERAN STEEDE from the comms team. Media mentions: Former CP Ottawa boss JOANNA SMITH with a call out to journos: she’s hiring a perspectives editor and a content editor for Kathari News,a global energy transition digital news startup, where she’s EIC. The publisher: RICK ANDERSON. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .
| | ON THE HILL | |
→ Find House committees here.
→ Keep track of Senate committees here. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada will release new reports on 2022 wool disposition and farm value and February numbers for investment in building construction. 9 a.m. The Parliamentary Budget Officer will publish a new report titled, “Estimated revenues from the Underused Housing Tax.” 9:45 a.m. Governor General Mary Simon will be at the Canadian War Museum for a ceremony unveiling a heraldic badge granted to the Rainbow Veterans of Canada. 1 p.m. The special Canada-China committee will hear from Health Deputy Minister Stephen Lucas and Public Health Agency of Canada President Heather Jeffrey. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Thursday’s answer: You can find the Proclamation of the Constitution Act that was signed by the queen in the office of the Senate speaker.
Props to MICHAEL POWELL, KEVIN BOSCH, MARCEL MARCOTTE, ALEX STEINHOUSE, JOHN ECKER, WILLIAM PRISTANSKI, SARA MAY and ROBERT MCDOUGALL. Friday’s question: Name the last two MPs called to the bar of the House to be chastised by the speaker (both wound up there for grabbing the ceremonial mace). Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: Nick Taylor-Vaisey Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
