A new military era for the US and Kenya, kind of?

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May 23, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil

President Joe Biden shakes hands with Kenya's President William Ruto at the end of a news conference.

President Joe Biden shakes hands with Kenya's President William Ruto at the end of a news conference in the East Room of the White House on May 23, 2024, in Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP

With help from Phelim Kine, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman

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The Biden administration is betting big on its military partnership with Kenya, hoping Nairobi can help turn the tide on the White House’s struggling Africa policy and solve conflicts on the continent and beyond.

But Kenya’s promotion to a major non-NATO ally today isn’t as huge of a deal as it sounds, according to former U.S. officials who worked on Africa and NATO policy.

It “doesn’t mean much,” former U.S. Ambassador to NATO KURT VOLKER told NatSec Daily, an assessment agreed upon by three other people we spoke with.

The designation is notable because it shows that U.S. values Kenya, but it doesn’t give Nairobi the same privileges afforded to NATO allies and members of the Five Eyes alliance.

IVO DAALDER, another former U.S. ambassador to NATO, noted that the main thing it does is allow Kenya to more easily buy certain military technologies that Washington wouldn't necessarily give to other countries. (Kenya is also the first Sub-Saharan African country to be granted the title.)

“There's a way to have a discussion about these things that otherwise wouldn't happen,” Daalder said of potential sales and military collaboration.

A key part missing that would make the designation more important: security commitments. The announcement didn’t include new defense agreements or weapons sales.

Still, the move gives Washington a stronger foothold on the African continent during a dire time for Biden’s Africa policy, which took a major blow after Niger’s ruling junta ordered U.S. troops out of the country this month. Moscow and Beijing have been increasingly investing — financially, militarily, diplomatically — in the continent, and the U.S. will have to catch up if it wants to maintain influence there.

President JOE BIDEN and Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO said in a joint statement today that the designation “is a powerful symbol of the close relationship.”

“Kenya is carrying a lot of water in Africa for this administration,” CAMERON HUDSON, a former intelligence officer for Africa at the CIA, told NatSec Daily.

After last year’s Africa summit in Washington, Biden only made one call to a head of state on the continent — and it was Ruto: “His commitment to Africa fell off a cliff,” Hudson added. The White House would argue that it has engaged with Africa plenty during visits from top U.S. officials, though Biden hasn’t yet made the trek.

Kenya has proven itself a valuable partner for the U.S. — battling extremist group Al-Shabaab in Somalia; countering Russian influence in Chad, Central African Republic, Mali and Libya; and engaging diplomatically with Congo, Sudan and Ethiopia to try to end violent conflicts.

And it doesn’t stop there. U.S.-backed Kenyan forces will soon arrive in Haiti to help quell gang violence that has overrun the country’s capital. The multinational effort led by Nairobi has drawn harsh criticism from many Kenyans, left-leaning advocates and Republican lawmakers, who see the mission as a costly foreign intervention that isn’t guaranteed to stabilize the country. There’s no timeline for how long the mission could last — or estimate on how costly it’ll be for Washington.

But for Biden and Ruto, the Haiti mission is a win-win, said RENATA SEGURA, program director of Latin America and the Caribbean at the International Crisis Group think tank.

“Ruto is getting the higher profile he wants, and the U.S. is getting someone to do their bidding in Haiti,” she told NatSec Daily.

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The Inbox

US ADVISER FOR GAZA? The Biden administration is considering appointing a U.S. official to serve as the top civilian adviser to a mostly Palestinian force when the Israel-Hamas conflict ends, four U.S. officials told our own ALEX WARD.

The civilian adviser would be based in the region and work closely with the commanding officer of the force, who would be either Palestinian or from an Arab nation, the people said. The adviser would never enter Gaza itself — an indication of the desire to avoid any implication that the U.S. would be dictating the future of the territory.

The ongoing private discussions between the White House, Pentagon and State Department about the role show that the U.S. would be partly responsible for what follows Israel’s war in Gaza, including improving the lives of 2.2 million Palestinians who are suffering in the decimated territory.

NEW AID TO UKRAINE: The U.S. is expected to unveil a new $275 million military package for Ukraine on Friday as its troops struggle to keep Russian forces from advancing in the northeastern Kharkiv region, The Associated Press’ TARA COPP and MATTHEW LEE report.

The package will include high mobility artillery rocket systems; 155 mm and 105 mm artillery rounds that are in high demand; Javelin and AT-4 anti-tank systems; anti-tank mines, tactical vehicles, small arms and ammunition for those weapons.

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CONGRATS GRADS: The first batch of Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training at an Arizona military base, a crucial step toward putting modern, American-made fighter jets in Ukraine’s skies, Capt. ERIN HANNIGAN, a spokesperson with the Air National Guard, told our own LARA SELIGMAN.

The pilots had been training at the 162d National Guard Air Force Base in Tucson. Hannigan would not confirm how many have graduated or the exact date of graduation “out of abundance of caution for their safety.”

The pilots are now headed to Europe for additional training, according to a person with knowledge of their movements. Ukraine is slated to receive more than 60 F-16s from Norway, Denmark, the Netherlands and Belgium.

YELLEN AT ISRAEL: Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN warned Israel against cutting off ties between Israeli and Palestinian banks, arguing that it could worsen the already-dire economic situation in the West Bank.

Her remarks today came ahead of the G7 summit in Italy, at which leaders are expected to discuss the matter and the humanitarian impact of the war in Gaza: “I’m particularly concerned by Israel’s threats to take action that would lead to Palestinian banks being cut off from their Israeli correspondent banks,” Yellen said in a statement.

Those banking channels are needed for processing transactions that allow some $8 billion a year in imports from Israel — including electricity, water, fuel and food — as well as facilitating nearly $2 billion a year in exports that Palestinians depend on, she said.

PAIN IN THE ASSETS FOR US: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN is preparing in case Western countries follow through on threats to seize Russian assets — identifying U.S. property that could be used as compensation, Reuters’ ALEXANDER MARROW reports.

Putin signed a decree today that said a Russian entity can ask a Russian court to decide whether its property has been “unjustifiably” seized and ask for compensation, the outlet writes. That could take the form of U.S. assets or other securities, such as “stakes in Russian companies, real estate, movable property and property rights among the U.S.-owned assets potentially liable for seizure,” per Reuters.

U.S. and European officials have been working out for months how to best use some $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to bolster Ukraine’s war efforts. While the Kremlin can’t retaliate in the same way due to dwindling foreign investment, it could go after private investors’ money.

IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil.

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ELECTION 2024

TRUMP’S PLAN TO FREE EVAN: Former President DONALD TRUMP claimed today that his relationship with Putin will help free jailed Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH.

In a Truth Social post, the presumptive Republican nominee said Gershkovich would be released after the election, “definitely before I assume office.” Trump added: “Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, will do that for me, but not for anyone else, and WE WILL BE PAYING NOTHING!”

The Kremlin, however, is throwing cold water on those claims, according to Reuters’ GLEB STOLYAROV. "Here, Putin has naturally not had contacts with Donald Trump," Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters today. Peskov added that any contact about detainees would need to be discreet, saying “this is the only way they can be effective.”

Gershkovich has been detained by Russian authorities for more than a year on dubious espionage charges. Both the Journal and U.S. government reject the allegations. The State Department has designated the reporter “wrongfully detained.”

 

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Keystrokes

AFRICAN CYBER STRATEGY: Biden’s commitments to Kenya weren’t limited to the new ally status: Cyber and tech played a major role in today’s Washington lovefest. Here are a few new initiatives, according to a White House readout:

On semiconductors, the State Department is aiming to expand Kenya’s workforce and help bolster private investment and connections to the U.S. chips supply chain. State is also working with lawmakers to commit $1 million in foreign assistance to Kenya’s semiconductor industry, which would make Kenya the first country in Africa to get money through the CHIPS and Science Act.

Later this year, the U.S. and Kenya also plan to host a regional cybersecurity symposium. And Commerce and State will dispatch staff to advise Kenya on drafting cybersecurity laws and regulations in a bid to cultivate "secure and trusted" digital ecosystems.

The Complex

ISRAELI DEFENSE LOOKS TO AMERICA: Israel’s state-run aerospace and aviation company opened a “visitors center” Wednesday just blocks from the Capitol, as it signals its interest in selling weapons to Washington and expanding its collaborations with the country’s closest ally.

NatSec Daily went to the launch, which featured VR headsets showcasing the various offerings IAI provides customers and speeches from Israel’s ambassador to Washington MICHAEL HERZOG and Israel’s envoy to the United Nations GILAD ERDAN.

IAI, which produces the Arrow anti-ballistic missile and the radars used in the Iron Dome, mostly sells to other allies, including Azerbaijan and India. But executives told those gathered that the company’s new goal is to increase their sales to the U.S. and deepen collaboration with the Pentagon. The visitors center is a key part of that goal, they said, as it allows them to show off IAI offerings directly to U.S. stakeholders.

AMIR PERETZ, a former Israeli defense minister who now chairs IAI’s board, said that the visitors center and an “innovation facility” to be inaugurated later this year will serve as a “bridge between IAI, the public at large and decision-makers here in Washington.”

CANADIAN FLAKIN’ (ON DEFENSE): A bipartisan group of lawmakers is urging the Canadian government to step up its defense spending and meet NATO targets. In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, the group of senators led by JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) wrote that they were “concerned and profoundly disappointed that Canada’s most recent projection indicated that it will not reach its 2 percent commitment this decade.”

Canada devotes just 1.2 percent of GDP toward defense, and historically falls well below the bloc’s 2 percent target.

 

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On the Hill

GEORGIA ON THEIR MINDS: Senators introduced a bipartisan sanctions bill against Georgia today, the latest legislative push to respond to a controversial “foreign agent” bill in the Caucasus country.

As our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports, the Georgian People’s Act, introduced by Shaheen and Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), would impose travel bans and other sanctions on Georgian politicians accused of “obstructing Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic integration” and being behind “corruption, human rights abuses and efforts to advance foreign agents law or facilitate its passage.” It also suspends a major bilateral security dialogue between Washington and Tbilisi and directs money towards democracy-building projects in the country.

On the other side of the House, Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) introduced a much-anticipated bill today that would offer Georgia military and economic assistance if it does not adopt the controversial foreign agent law. Wilson's bill also contains sanctions provisions if Georgia ultimately enacts the foreign agent law.

NDAA MARKUP WRAP-UP: The House Armed Services Committee wrapped up its markup of this year’s NDAA and our colleagues at Morning Defense (for Pros!) have some key takeaways.

Some culture war amendments targeting diversity and inclusion measures within the services got in, as well as amendments targeting DoD’s emissions reduction efforts. But the main tweaks, and the main debates, were over space and nuclear weapons.

A handful of Republicans crossed party lines to pass Rep. SETH MOULTON (D-Mass.)’s amendment ordering an assessment of “intelligence sources compromised or lost due to the classified information leak regarding Russia’s development” of a space-based nuclear weapon. The committee also punted on the creation of a “Space National Guard” and gave governors more authority to resist transfers of Air National Guard units to the Space Force.

Ukraine will also get to keep transfers of cluster munitions and receive aid under presidential drawdowns, after the committee roundly defeated a pair of amendments from Rep. MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.)

Most importantly, the markup ended earlier than normal at a cool 10:17 p.m. Congrats to the winner of this year’s dubious bragging rights, LINDSAY RATLIFF.

Broadsides

CHINA DRILLS IN THE STRAITS: ​​Beijing ramped up its ongoing military harassment and intimidation of Taiwan on Thursday with joint military drills around the island in response to the inauguration of independence-leaning President LAI CHING-TE on Monday, our own PHELIM KINE writes in.

Those maneuvers, which involves units of China’s navy, air force, rocket force and army, are “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of ‘Taiwan independence’ forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces,” said People’s Liberation Army spokesperson LI XI in a statement today. Taipei urged Beijing to back off. China should “show self-restraint…and to refrain from actions that raise regional tensions,” Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Taipei was not the only object of China’s fury. China’s Foreign Ministry also slammed House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL McCAUL’S plan to lead a congressional delegation to Taiwan later this month.

“Any visit by congressional members to Taiwan will seriously violate the one-China principle… and send a seriously wrong signal to ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist forces,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson WANG WENBIN said today. An HFAC majority spokesperson, unauthorized to comment on-record about congressional travel, told NatSec Daily that McCaul will lead “a bipartisan CODEL to Asia in the very near future,” without elaborating.

Watch: China releases video of military drills surrounding Taiwan by our video team

Read: Finnish PM warns of hybrid threats from ‘aggressive’ Russia by our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI

 

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Transitions

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CARA ABERCROMBIE will be the new acting deputy undersecretary of Defense for policy, a DOD official told Lara. Abercrombie currently serves as the assistant secretary of Defense for acquisition. She replaces MELISSA DALTON, who was confirmed today as undersecretary of the Air Force.

— Trump administration national security adviser ROBERT O’BRIEN has joined the Misgav Institute’s international advisory council.

— Russian authorities arrested Lt. Gen. VADIM SHAMARIN, deputy to Gen. VALERY GERASIMOV, head of the army’s general staff, on bribery suspicions. It’s the fourth arrest of a high-ranking Russian official as Putin continues reshuffling the military.

CHRISTINA SEGAL-KNOWLES has been promoted to deputy assistant to the president and coordinator for International Economic Strategy. She previously was a special assistant to the president and senior director for international economics and competitiveness. She will be replaced by MARY SVENSTRUP, who is returning to the National Security Council from the Treasury Department.

LINDSEY FORD, who is currently the deputy assistant secretary of defense for South and Southeast Asia, will soon join NSC as special assistant to the president and senior director for South Asia.

NELSON CUNNINGHAM is joining the State Department as a special adviser to the undersecretary of State for economic growth, energy and the environment, our own DOUG PALMER reports (for Pros!). The Clinton administration alum was unsuccessfully nominated by the Biden administration to serve as deputy U.S. trade representative.

What to Read

ROBBIE GRAMER, Foreign Policy: The advocate

BENOIT FAUCON, The Wall Street Journal: Iran president’s crash highlights struggle to upgrade an aging fleet

VERA BERGENGRUEN, TIME:  JAVIER MILEI’s radical plan to transform Argentina

Tomorrow Today

Inter-American Dialogue, 8:15 a.m.: The security challenge for democracies in Latin America

U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 9:15 a.m.: U.S.-Kenya Business Forum

Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: The Atlantic partnership: African perspectives on the way forward

Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: Haiti on the brink: the prospects and challenges of the Kenyan-led MSS (multilateral security support) initiative

Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who gets a higher profile while we do her bidding.

We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is more than a major non-NATO ally to us.

CORRECTION: Wednesday’s newsletter misstated the country that was providing Russia key components to rebuild its industrial base.

A message from Lockheed Martin:

Turn the Entire Battlefield into your Field of Vision

Today's military landscape features systems and platforms engineered for standalone operations. Embracing our 21st Century Security® vision, Lockheed Martin is at the forefront of defense innovation, weaving connections between defense and digital domains. Learn more.

 
 

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