| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg | |  Palestinians celebrate in a street in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, after Hamas announced it had accepted a truce proposal on May 6, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group. But Israel later said the proposal it’s “far from” the deal it wants. | AFP via Getty Images | With help from Maggie Miller, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Hamas reportedly accepted a Gaza cease-fire proposal, but it’s “far from” the deal Israel wants, Israeli officials said. That’s our main takeaway from this whirlwind of an afternoon, which began when several reporters began tweeting that Hamas agreed to a deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar. For weeks, Israel has been waiting for Hamas to agree to its version of a deal that would see dozens of hostages released in exchange for a temporary cease-fire. But the possibility that an agreement would be made was soon shot down. The deal offered by Hamas was a “softened” or “one-sided” Egyptian version, according to Israeli media. From what it sounds like, there are at least two proposals on the table, neither of which Israel and Hamas agree on. The militant group has repeatedly said it wants a permanent cease-fire as part of a hostage deal — a concession Israel has been entirely unwilling to make as it pledges to root out Hamas militants in Gaza. “Even though the Hamas proposal is far from Israel's basic requirements, Israel will send a delegation of mediators to exhaust the possibility of reaching an agreement under conditions acceptable to Israel,” the Israeli prime minister’s office said in a statement. Speaking with reporters this afternoon, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said CIA Director BILL BURNS is in the region “literally working on this right now. I don’t want to put a timetable on it, but it’s something that is a top priority for everyone in this administration from the president on down,” Miller said. Speaking at the White House podium shortly after, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said “it's safe to conclude that that response came as a result or at the end of these continued discussions that Director Burns was part of.” Hamas issued its response after the conversation between President JOE BIDEN and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU this morning, Kirby said when asked if the pair had discussed the matter. The U.S. is currently reviewing the militant group’s response, Kirby said, adding that Israeli officials are also reviewing Hamas’ position. Asked about the details of the proposals on the table, Kirby said: “I don't know that it gets any more sensitive than right now, and the worst thing that we can do is start speculating about what's in it.” Looming in the background are growing concerns that Israel could invade the southern city of Rafah at any time. We kick off The Inbox with my colleagues’ scoop on that, so keep on reading.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | RAFAH INVASION NEAR? The White House is worried that Israel is fast-tracking an invasion of Rafah, made evident by the Israel Defense Forces ordering civilian evacuations, our own ALEX WARD, LARA SELIGMAN and ERIN BANCO report. Violence in the southern Gaza city spiked on Sunday after Hamas fired rockets from near the Rafah crossing, killing four Israeli soldiers. Israeli fighter jets struck targets in Rafah overnight, including a humanitarian aid location the Israel Defense Forces said was used as a staging ground for the rocket attack. Today, the IDF ordered civilians in a limited section of the city to evacuate to a “humanitarian area” in al-Mawasi, an area along the Mediterranean. The moves, combined with snags in cease-fire negotiations over the weekend, reflect that Israel may be accelerating its plans to invade Rafah, U.S. officials said — though they stressed that the operation is limited in scope for now and doesn’t necessarily represent the initial phase of an all-out invasion. “The rocket attack confirms their fear, you still have this pocket there that gone unchecked or left alone will continue to foment violence or pose a threat,” a U.S. official said. The attack combined “with the lack of progress in the hostage negotiations, they are inclined to begin pressing.” In a statement, the Israeli prime minister’s office said the Israeli War Cabinet unanimously decided that Israel will continue the operation in Rafah to “exert military pressure on Hamas to advance our war aims: the release of our hostages, destruction of Hamas's military and governing capabilities, and reality where Gaza does not pose a threat to Israel in the future.” Israeli forces are currently conducting targeted strikes against Hamas targets in eastern Rafah, the IDF said in a statement. When Biden spoke with Netanyahu on the phone today, he “reiterated his clear position on Rafah,” per a White House readout which gave no further details. Biden has repeatedly warned Israel against the invasion unless civilians are protected. Read: U.N. denounces ‘onslaught of violence against women’ by Israel, notes mass graves in Gaza by our own JOE STANLEY-SMITH RUSSIA DETAINS US SOLDIER: The Kremlin detained a U.S. soldier last week on charges of theft, a U.S. official told our own LARA SELIGMAN. The soldier, a staff sergeant who is stationed in South Korea, was arrested Thursday, the official said, adding that the soldier had traveled to Russia to meet a woman, possibly his girlfriend. The State Department is in touch with the Russian government about the case, the official said, adding that the soldier has been given a pretrial detention until July 1. RUSSIA’S NUCLEAR BUTTON: Russia has started preparing for nuclear weapons exercises, saying it is doing so in response to Western officials making “provocative statements and threats" by deepening their support for Ukraine, the Kremlin said today. Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV pinned the blame on French President EMMANUEL MACRON and others who have expressed openness to the idea of sending troops to Ukraine: "Deploying NATO soldiers … is an unprecedented move, and, of course, it requires special attention and special measures," Peskov said, according to Russian state-run media. Ukraine played down the comments: "Nuclear blackmail is a constant practice of Putin's regime," Ukraine's military spy agency spokesperson ANDRIY YUSOV told national television. XI’S TIME ABROAD: French President Macron urged to Chinese leader XI JINPING to offer “fair rules for all” at the start of his two-day state visit to France that is expected to focus on trade tensions and the war in Ukraine, our own CLEA CAULCUTT reports. "The future of our continent depends very clearly on our capacity to continue to develop a balanced relationship with China," Macron said at a three-way meeting with Xi and EU Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN today. This week marks Xi’s first trip to Europe in five years, with additional stops scheduled in Serbia and Hungary. Read: Macron meets Xi: Two emperors on the edge of two wars by our own STUART LAU and Clea IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BLINKEN’S RSA SPEECH: The outcome of future technological battles with adversaries will largely be determined by a sweeping Biden administration strategy unveiled today — and the U.S. isn’t sure it will lead to success yet. That’s our big takeaway from the speech Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is slated to give at the RSA Conference in San Francisco tonight, according to a readout provided exclusively to NatSec Daily. “The test before us is whether we can harness the power of this era of disruption and channel it into global stability and prosperity,” Blinken is expected to say. “The choices we make today, in this decisive decade, will reverberate for generations.” Blinken is set to formally announce the administration’s strategy for how to build global cybersecurity cooperation amid increasing threats from China, Russia and cybercriminals, a plan our own MAGGIE MILLER previewed this morning. It’s the first first articulated U.S. global cyber strategy in more than a decade. Key parts of the strategy: promote a secure digital ecosystem globally; uphold “rights-respecting” digital tech approaches with allied nations; build coalitions to counter cyberattacks; and enhance the cybersecurity resiliency of partner nations. If the plan succeeds, it could help the U.S counter cyber threats and create global consensus on artificial intelligence, while positioning Washington against Beijing in setting cybersecurity norms. With AI in particular, U.S. lawmakers have blasted Washington for falling behind in setting regulations and guardrails. And the Biden administration knows it can’t develop a global cybersecurity strategy on its own: Washington’s advantage “comes from our solidarity with the majority of the world that shares our vision for a vibrant, open, and secure technological future, and from our unmatched network of allies and partners,” Blinken will say. Whether the plan works in the long-term, however, will be dependent on continued engagement with partners… and sustained effort from future administrations, said GLENN GERSTELL, who served as general counsel of the National Security Agency from 2015 to 2020. The new U.S. strategy “is a critical step,” Gerstell told NatSec Daily. “But it’s a long road.”
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | REPLICATOR DEETS: The Pentagon finally revealed some details about its secretive program to field thousands of drones to counter China’s growing fleet, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. The DOD for the first time confirmed a report that AeroVironment’s Switchblade-600 loitering munition is one of the drones included in Replicator. And Pentagon officials say they will meet Deputy Defense Secretary KATHLEEN HICKS’ mandate to field “multiple thousands” of “attritable autonomous systems” by August 2025. These new disclosures come as lawmakers, Hill staffers and the industry have pressed DOD for more details since Hicks launched the largely classified effort in August. Hicks has said the Pentagon aims to spend about $1 billion total in fiscal 2024 and 2025 on the plan. Read: Ukraine wants to use EU money to grow its military-industrial complex by our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI
| | | |   | | | | | ‘YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED’: A dozen Republican senators told the International Criminal Court that, if it starts issuing arrest warrants for Israeli officials over the nation’s conduct during the war in Gaza, “we will target you,” your host reports. In a letter led by Sen. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.), the senators warn ICC chief prosecutor KARIM KHAN, citing reports that the court may be considering issuing international arrest warrants against Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU and other Israeli officials. Such actions are “illegitimate and lack legal basis,” the lawmakers wrote in the April 24 letter, warning they would result in severe sanctions against Khan and the ICC. “You have been warned.”
| | KEEPING TEHRAN IN CHECK: U.N. nuclear watchdog chief RAFAEL GROSSI flew to Iran today to advocate for tougher checks on Tehran’s nuclear program after monitoring setbacks, Reuters’ FRANCOIS MURPHY reports. "Given the depth and breadth of the program, we should be having additional monitoring capabilities," Grossi told the outlet ahead of meetings with Iranian officials today and Tuesday. In April, it was reported that Iran is closer to nuclear weapons capability than any time in its history. It could take as few as six months to make a crude nuclear device, officials who closely monitor Iran’s progress told The Washington Post, and a nuclear warhead deliverable by missile could take as long as two years. COLOMBIA SANCTIONS: The U.S. imposed visa restrictions on executives of several Colombian transportation companies accused of smuggling migrants through the Colombia-Panama border, Reuters’ TED HESSON reports. The sanctions target ferry operators who have smuggled migrants through a dangerous jungle known as the Darien Gap, a major transit route for migrants seeking to enter the United States. Panamanian stats show that more than half a million migrants passed through the gap last year. | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — JAMES McFARLIN is leaving the Pentagon in early June where he has been deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial base development and international engagement, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He is figuring out his next step but will be spending more time with his family in the meantime.
| | — RORY TRUEX, The New York Times: Let’s all take a deep breath about China — ROBYN DIXON, The Washington Post: Under Putin, a militarized new Russia rises to challenge U.S. and the West — GIDEON RACHMAN, Financial Times: Xi is probing for cracks in the EU and NATO
| | — House Homeland Security Transportation and Maritime Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Building the fleet: assessing the department of homeland security's role in the U.S. Coast Guard's acquisitions process The Wilson Center's Middle East Program and the Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: Plan for postwar Gaza The George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: The Taiwan Relations Act at 45 years and counting The Cato Institute, 12 p.m.: Sea-launched nuclear cruise missile: necessary or excessive? The Brookings Institution, 1 p.m.: Shifting geopolitics in the age of AI The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 2:30 p.m.: Converging threats posed by China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and global extremists with Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who wants to undo all the progress we’ve made on NatSec Daily. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who holds her at bay.
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