Biden's race to Trump-proof his legacy

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May 08, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza

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DRIVING THE DAY

OUR MAN IN JERUSALEM — CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS is meeting this hour with Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU after Gaza cease-fire talks were rekindled yesterday in Cairo and U.S. officials projected optimism that a deal is within sight. The Israel Defense Forces this morning said it had reopened a key border crossing in southern Gaza this morning, the AP reports, but it remains unclear when or if humanitarian aid would flow through it. More below

MEANWHILE IN FOGGY BOTTOM — D.C. police cleared a pro-Palestinian protest encampment on the George Washington University campus overnight, the GW Hatchet reports — just hours before Mayor MURIEL BOWSER is set to testify before the House Oversight Committee on her handling of the matter.

President Joe Biden speaks at the Wilmington Convention Center, Thursday, May 2, 2024, in Wilmington, N.C., as he announces his administration is providing states an additional $3 billion to replace lead pipes across the country. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

President Joe Biden needs to dole out hundreds of billions of dollars that Congress has already approved but which haven’t yet been spent before November. | AP

WHAT JEFF ZIENTS IS READING — This morning in Washington, there is one story that is an absolute must-read for anyone who works in policy, thinks about politics or is just plain interested in understanding how power works, and it comes from a team of our colleagues.

President JOE BIDEN is in a race against time to secure a New Deal-sized legacy before DONALD TRUMP potentially returns to power — and brings a wrecking ball to Biden’s achievements.

To do that, Biden needs to dole out hundreds of billions of dollars that Congress has already approved but which haven’t yet been spent. If Trump wins in November and the money hasn’t yet left the government’s coffers, he’ll aim to cancel almost all of it.

Four laws fuse together to form the spine of Biden’s agenda: (1) the American Rescue Plan, (2) the bipartisan infrastructure law, (3) the CHIPS and Science Act and (4) the Inflation Reduction Act.

Between them, they contain $1.6 trillion in “loans, grants and tax credits meant to green the economy, revive the country’s manufacturing base, repair its roads and bridges and challenge China for technological supremacy,” as our colleagues write this morning.

They dug into the numbers, and made some genuinely surprising discoveries:

  • Of the $1.1 trillion those four laws “provided for direct investments on climate, energy and infrastructure,” less than 17% has been spent as of April.
  • Of the $884 billion provided by the infrastructure law and the American Rescue Plan, only $125 billion has been spent, and roughly $300 billion won’t be available to spend until the next two fiscal years.
  • Of the $54 billion made available via the CHIPS and Science Act, less than $700 million has been awarded — “though the Commerce Department has announced $29 billion in tentative awards to semiconductor manufacturers in recent months.”

Meanwhile, Trump “has said he should have the power to refuse to spend congressionally appropriated money he considers wasteful, despite a 1974 law that says otherwise. … If Trump wins, ‘from day one’ he could — and probably would — halt all pending grant approvals and applications until the new administration can scrutinize them, predicted MANDY GUNASEKARA, who was chief of staff at the Environmental Protection Agency during his presidency. ‘Anything that has not yet left the door is going to be paused and then reviewed and then acted upon,’ she said in an interview.”

In short: If Biden wants to Trump-proof his legacy, he’s got a long way to go before November — and, to paraphrase the poem that provided the title of his 2008 memoir — miles to go before he sleeps. The full coverage

LEDE OF THE DAY — “Voters say they don’t know very much about President Joe Biden’s major domestic spending initiatives. They don’t think they’re working. And they don’t give him credit for their benefits, anyway,” Steve Shepard writes this morning. “Those are among the key takeaways from a new POLITICO-Morning Consult poll about four major laws passed in the first two years of Biden’s administration.”

Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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ABOUT LAST NIGHT — NIKKI HALEY’s zombie campaign lived to stalk another day again in the Indiana GOP primary, pulling a 22% protest vote against Trump despite long since having dropped out. She reached 35% in Indianapolis. It’s just the latest reminder that there are plenty of Republican voters still opposed to Trump, though (unlike in some other recent states) Indiana’s primary is somewhat open to non-Republicans. More Indiana results below …

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate is in, with a recess from 12:30 p.m. to 2:15 p.m. for weekly conference meetings. EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN will testify before the Environment and Public Works Committee at 10 a.m. Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m., and Interior Secretary DEB HAALAND will testify before another one at 10:30 a.m.

The House will meet at 10 a.m. Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO will testify before an Appropriations subcommittee at 10 a.m. DNI AVRIL HAINES will testify before the Intelligence Committee at 10 a.m. behind closed doors. Leaders of several school systems will testify about antisemitism before an Education and the Workforce subcommittee at 10:15 a.m., as Juan Perez Jr., Madina Touré and Blake Jones preview.

3 things to watch …

  1. The FAA reauthorization appears to be on final approach to Senate passage after Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER filed cloture yesterday on a bipartisan compromise bill. A last-minute tweak fixed a flare-up over airline refunds, but it remains unclear if there will be amendment votes on controversial issues like Reagan National Airport flight slots or facial recognition technology to speed up passage ahead of a Friday deadline. What seems less likely is that big unrelated bills on digital regulation, tax policy and marijuana banking will get added to the mix.
  2. Republicans will get their star witness at one House hearing today: Mayor Bowser is confirmed to appear before the Oversight Committee at 1 p.m. alongside Metropolitan Police Chief PAMELA SMITH to discuss the city’s handling of protest encampments at George Washington University. Another panel, however, will be missing theirs: An Energy and Commerce subcommittee will review allegations of bias at NPR without network CEO KATHERINE MAHER, who will be attending a long-planned board meeting during the 10 a.m. hearing.
  3. Who knew JIM JORDAN is a race fan? The House Judiciary chair is inserting himself into a dispute inside the high-drama world of Formula 1 auto racing, NBC’s Sahil Kapur scooped, accusing its U.S. and global leaders of possible “anticompetitive conduct” for snubbing a new GM-affiliated team led by Indy 500 legend MARIO ANDRETTI. Turns out that Jordan, better known for his wrestling career, “is a big Formula 1 fan and watches Drive to Survive, like many Americans,” a knowledgeable person tells Kapur.

At the White House

Biden will travel to Racine County, Wisconsin, where he’ll speak about his domestic agenda at Gateway Technical College at 12:45 p.m. Eastern. Afterward, he’ll stop at two campaign events in Wisconsin and Chicago before returning to the White House. Biden is also sitting down for an interview with CNN’s Erin Burnett that will air at 7 p.m. tonight on her “OutFront” show.

VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Philadelphia for an afternoon campaign event before returning to Washington, where she’ll speak at the EMILY’s List national gala at 7 p.m.

 

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PLAYBOOK READS

TRUMP CARDS

Stormy Daniels arrives at an event in Berlin.

Donald Trump had to sit through salacious testimony about himself from Stormy Daniels at his hush money trial yesterday. | Markus Schreiber/AP Photo

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS — Trump got a major, if not unexpected, reprieve in one of his four pending criminal cases yesterday: Judge AILEEN CANNON made it official that his classified documents trial start date will be delayed indefinitely, per CBS, less than two weeks before it was due to commence. She said too many pre-trial questions remained outstanding. That makes it much likelier that the trial will be delayed until after the election — or perhaps forever, if Trump wins.

It was a different story in Manhattan, where Trump had to sit through salacious testimony about himself from STORMY DANIELS at his hush money trial. Daniels went far enough away from the case’s central evidence that Trump lawyer TODD BLANCHE requested a mistrial, Ben Feuerherd and Josh Gerstein report. Justice JUAN MERCHAN denied him, saying that although Daniels should have been more direct, he was surprised Trump’s defense didn’t lodge more objections. (Can’t imagine Trump will be too happy with his representation there.)

Will it work? Daniels’ testimony “could be a risk for prosecutors, depending on whether the jury received Ms. Daniels’s story of Mr. Trump’s actions as prurient or powerful,” write NYT’s Kate Christobek and Jesse McKinley. In cross-examination, Trump’s attorneys accused her of inconsistencies, questioned her motives and asked whether she was trying to “extort” him. (Daniels sharply rejected that.) The questioning will continue today.

2024 WATCH

THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — “Trump advisers explore vast new legal powers for global trade war,” by WaPo’s Jeff Stein: “Some Trump allies are concerned [ROBERT LIGHTHIZER’s legal theories] would not pass legal scrutiny … and have in recent weeks tried to find other bases for the plan … [T]here is little doubt his plans would prove extremely disruptive to the global economy.”

POLL POSITION — Trump leads Biden by 4 points in Pennsylvania in a new AARP survey, though Democratic Sen. BOB CASEY is ahead of DAVID McCORMICK by 4, too. A Muhlenberg poll has Trump up 3 in the state, and Casey up 4.

NEW THIS MORNING — “Biden campaign plans $14 million spending blitz in May,” by Elena Schneider and Brakkton Booker: “It will also be hiring more staff — bringing its total to 500 — and open its 200th office by the end of the month. … [The moves] signal that the Biden team is still banking on a traditional campaign strategy of trying to reach voters through a physical footprint and television ads.”

DEMOCRACY WATCH — Trump told WGAL-TV’s Barbara Barr yesterday that it’s important to challenge election results, as he has done repeatedly with his lies about the 2020 outcome, because “you actually have to follow your heart.” He also said that the matter of women’s pregnancies being monitored should be left to the states.

SPOILER ALERT — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s campaign announced that he’s gained ballot access in yet another state by landing the imprimatur of a third party, this time the Independent Party of Delaware.

UP FOR DEBATE — Kennedy issued a challenge for Trump to debate him head to head at the upcoming Libertarian Party convention this month.

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

SOUTHERN ISRAEL, ISRAEL - MAY 7: An Israeli vehicle moves near the border with the Southern Gaza Strip on May 7, 2024 in Southern Israel, Israel. Following a nighttime advance, the Israeli military announced on Tuesday that it had taken "operational control" over the Gaza side of the border crossing, which connects the blockaded territory to Egypt and is one of the main access points for   aid into Gaza. (Photo by Amir Levy/Getty Images)

An Israeli vehicle moves near the border with the Southern Gaza Strip on May 7 in Southern Israel. | Amir Levy/Getty Images

MIDDLE EAST LATEST —  As cease-fire talks continue, it’s unclear whether Israel’s latest offensive will usher Hamas closer to an agreement or repel it from one. But in the eyes of the U.S., this doesn’t amount to the major ground invasion of Rafah that Biden warned would be a red line for him, per Axios’ Barak Ravid. Nonetheless, the situation is muddying the clarity that the Biden administration had sought to lay out, Alex Ward writes. And WSJ’s Michael Gordon frames Netanyahu’s move as another widening of the rift between the two allies. In another pause, the U.S. is holding off on sending Israel more giant 2,000-lb and 500-lb bombs out of worries they’d be used in Rafah, Lara Seligman reports.

What is clear is that most immediately, Israel’s closing of border crossings has impeded crucial aid shipments, worsening the humanitarian crisis inside Gaza, the U.N. said, per NBC. At the same time, the Pentagon announced that it has finished building the floating pier to get aid into Gaza by sea, though it hasn’t yet been positioned, per CNN. And although a much-anticipated State Department review of whether Israel has broken the law originally had a deadline of today, it’s been “briefly delayed,” Matt Berg and Joe Gould report.

On the Hill, House Foreign Affairs Chair MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) and other Republicans are working on a bill that would slap sanctions on International Criminal Court officials if they issue arrest warrants for Israeli leaders over the war, Axios’ Andrew Solender reports. And as some pro-Palestinian campus protests continue — police cleared the University of Chicago encampment yesterday — Semafor’s Dave Weigel looks at how Republicans are “making the worst incidents famous — and linking them back to Democrats.”

More top reads:

 

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POLICY CORNER

THE MALLEY MYSTERY — “Finally, a possible explanation for why Biden’s Iran envoy was suspended,” by WaPo’s Josh Rogin: “[Sen. JIM] RISCH and McCaul are asking the State Department to confirm that [ROBERT] MALLEY’s security clearance was suspended by the State Department’s Diplomatic Security Service because he ‘allegedly transferred classified documents to his personal email account and downloaded these documents to his personal cell phone.’”

MORE POLITICS

Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks during a news conference, Wednesday, March 6, 2024, in Charleston, S.C. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's zombie campaign lived to stalk another day again in the Indiana GOP primary. | Chris Carlson/AP Photo

IMPORTANTVILLE — In addition to Trump’s and Biden’s commanding victories in Indiana, Rep. JIM BANKS claimed the GOP Senate nomination unopposed. Sen. MIKE BRAUN won an intense gubernatorial primary with 40 percent of the vote, almost double Lt. Gov. SUZANNE CROUCH’s share.

In notable Republican congressional primaries, Rep. VICTORIA SPARTZ narrowly staved off a challenge from state Rep. CHUCK GOODRICH, 39% to 33%. Former Rep. MARLIN STUTZMAN could be on his way back to Congress after edging out a crowded field with 24% of the GOP vote to fill Banks’ seat. But the comeback bid ended for former Rep. JOHN HOSTETTLER, who went down to MARK MESSMER in his bid to succeed LARRY BUCSHON. (That was a win for AIPAC in a rare GOP primary play.) Full results from the Indianapolis Star

More top reads:

  • Primary colors: MAGGIE GOODLANDER is preparing to jump into a Democratic congressional primary in New Hampshire shortly, the Union Leader’s Kevin Landrigan reports. The former Biden White House official and wife of national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN would be up against others including COLIN VAN OSTERN, who has the support of retiring Rep. ANNIE KUSTER. She could also face questions about her residency and past work for Republican JOHN McCAIN.

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — “Supreme Court poised to enter debate over transgender care for minors,” by the L.A. Times’ David Savage: “As soon as Thursday justices may vote behind closed doors on whether to grant an appeal that seeks to block a new Tennessee law prohibiting medical treatments that enable a ‘minor to identify with, or live as, a purported identity inconsistent with the minor’s sex.’ … For weeks, they have repeatedly delayed a vote on the case, likely reflecting a division — either between liberals and conservatives, or perhaps inside the conservative majority. At stake is the fate of a wave of … new state laws in the South and Midwest.”

CONGRESS

FRONT-LINERS PRESS BIDEN — “15 House Democrats call on Biden to take border executive action,” by CBS’ Hunter Woodall and Camilo Montoya-Galvez

 

YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. 

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Geri Halliwell, aka Ginger Spice, was on the Hill to talk family literacy.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said see ya later boy to Tim Burchett.

Bob Menendez avoided an awkward elevator ride with John Fetterman.

Gloria Estefan and the … Miami sub machine?

IN MEMORIAM — Henry Oden, a former editor for The Wall Street Journal in Washington, died April 15 at the age of 85.” More from Talking Biz News

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — ABC Audio and 538 are launching a new podcast miniseries today, “Campaign Throwback,” hosted by Galen Druke. The three-part show will look at how various political tropes (starting with “It’s the economy, stupid” and guests James Carville and Lynn Vavreck) have molded American campaigns.

The progressive firm Movement Labs has added Joe Huston as COO and Zoë Stein as VP of political innovation, leading a new incubator initiative. Huston previously was managing director and CFO of GiveDirectly. Stein previously was chief programs officer at Relentless, innovating relational mobilization tactics.

OUT AND ABOUT — The Association of Equipment Manufacturers held an “Ag on the Mall” tour for members of the Congressional Western Caucus yesterday. SPOTTED: Chair Dan Newhouse (R-Wash.) and Reps. Adrian Smith (R-Neb.), Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.), Michelle Fischbach (R-Minn.), Celeste Maloy (R-Utah), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa), Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.), Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Ralph Norman (R-S.C.).

— SPOTTED at the American Land Title Association’s reception last night at the Kennedy Caucus Room in the Russell Senate Office Building: Reps. Young Kim (R-Calif.) and Joe Morelle (D-N.Y.) and Bob Gibbs.

WHITE HOUSE MOVES — The White House press shop is elevating Andrew Bates and Emilie Simons to senior deputy press secretary and permanently adding Jeremy Edwards, who was detailed from FEMA, as an assistant press secretary. More from Bloomberg

TRANSITIONS — Jake Hochberg is now chief of staff for Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), per Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman. He just resigned from his role as chief of staff for Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas). … Jeanne Lambrew will rejoin the Century Foundation as director of health care reform. She most recently has been commissioner of the Maine Department of Health and Human Services. … Angela Vasquez-Giroux is joining Planned Parenthood Federation of America and Planned Parenthood Action Fund as VP for comms. She previously was VP of comms and research at Reproductive Freedom for All, and is a Planned Parenthood of Michigan and Planned Parenthood Advocates of Michigan alum. …

… Elya Taichman is now a senior adviser in the State Department’s Bureau of Legislative Affairs. He previously was legislative director for Rep. Lori Trahan (D-Mass.), and is a Michelle Lujan Grisham alum. … Tyler Henningsen is joining the Michigan GOP as grassroots outreach director. He previously was executive assistant to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). … Madeline Twomey has joined Palette Media to lead their marketing division. She most recently headed her own consulting practice, Rufus and Mane, and is a Biden and Obama campaign alum.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.), John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Dale Strong (R-Ala.) … Bill de Blasio … AP’s Chris MegerianJohn MartinDave Catanese … CNN’s Ed Meagher John Stirrup … Herald Group’s Ashley Pratte Oates Melissa Moss of Moss Advisors … Stephen Peters … Anheuser-Busch’s Meghan DiMuzio … Qorvis’ Grace Fenstermaker … GMMB’s Anson Kaye Miranda Peterson … Penta’s André Bransford … Guidehouse’s Cooper Smith Tom McCuinAmy Little … former Sen. Dennis DeConcini (D-Ariz.) … Cathy DuvallAmi Fields-Meyer … Arena’s J. Peter Donald 

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

 

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NEW STUDY DEBUNKS MYTH CREDIT CARDS REWARDS ARE ONLY FOR THE RICH: Politicians in DC are teaming up with corporate mega-stores to push a false narrative only the rich benefit from credit card rewards. New research disproves this, showing rewards have a significantly larger financial benefit for low- and middle-income Americans. These rewards, especially cashback, help working class families pay for everyday essentials--equivalent to a 17 cent per gallon gas price reduction. Yet, politicians are trying to pass a new law that would end rewards programs that Americans rely on, favoring corporations over people. The card mandates included in the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card Bill would weaken security measures, disrupt rewards, and burden households already grappling with rising costs. With food and rent prices soaring, stripping cashback rewards from hardworking American families would be devastating. Learn more here.

 
 

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