Inside the motion-to-vacate whip count

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May 02, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Daniella Diaz and Jordain Carney

Presented by 

American Beverage

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie are pursued by reporters as they depart a vote at the U.S. Capitol.

One complicating factor is that it is unlikely there will be a direct vote on the resolution removing Johnson; there is instead likely to be a motion to table it, which would kill the effort without debate. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

WHO DOESN’T LIKE MIKE

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has committed to triggering her motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson when the House comes back to session next week — even if it is all but guaranteed to fail.

So far, Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) have locked arms with Greene. Beyond that, there are at least a handful of hard-line conservatives who aren’t ruling out a vote against Johnson.

One complicating factor is that it is unlikely there will be a direct vote on the resolution removing Johnson; there is instead likely to be a motion to table it, which would kill the effort without debate. Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), for instance, said he will vote against tabling but would not say how he would vote on the underlying motion to remove Johnson.

To give Inside Congress readers a better sense of the universe of potential anti-Johnson votes, the team fanned out to survey some of the speaker’s toughest critics inside the House GOP.

Let’s break it down:

  • The “Gaetz Eight” — Of the eight Republicans who voted to remove Kevin McCarthy in October, only seven remain to vote on Johnson (Colorado Rep. Ken Buck resigned in March). Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who led the push against McCarthy, has indicated he’s unlikely to move against Johnson, saying it could risk electing a Democratic speaker. Reps. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) and Bob Good (R-Va.) have said they also don’t support the effort. Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) has backed Johnson and recently touted his support in her competitive primary. Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) has left the door open but outlined a litany of reasons this week on why he thinks it's a bad idea, while Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) have kept their powder dry.
  • The HFC Opposition — The House Freedom Caucus, usually a locus of anti-leadership sentiment, is largely not ready to boot Johnson. Not only is Good, the chairman, against the effort to boot Johnson, but so are a swath of its other members including Reps. Dan Bishop (R-N.C.), Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), Andrew Clyde (R-Ga.), Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), and Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.).
  • The Hard Maybes — Others on the hard right, however, are keeping their options open, including former HFC chair Scott Perry (R-Pa.), who declined to comment multiple times this week on his views on a motion to vacate. Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) also brushed off questions about her plans, and Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) said he is still weighing his options. Also being watched closely: Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who reiterated this week that he’s not a fan of ousting speakers but hasn’t said explicitly how he will vote. 

The bottom line: While Johnson is expected to survive thanks to Democrats, the vote will still represent an interesting litmus test for the speaker’s support among the GOP rank-and-file. For one, we’ll be watching if Greene can get more than eight Republicans to oppose tabling her resolution — the number Gaetz got last year to take the more consequential step of actually voting to oust McCarthy.

According to our count, it could be close. Massie said the tally could go even higher — and send a clear signal that Johnson won’t be in leadership next year: “If there are a dozen who vote against him, he's now a lame duck speaker because those 12 aren't going to miraculously decide on Jan. 3 to vote for him.”

— Daniella Diaz and Jordain Carney, with assist from Nicholas Wu and Katherine Tully McManus 

 

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Thursday, May 2, where we are wondering where to find some corn pudding.

PELTOLA’S UNEXPECTED BACKUP

Rep. Mary Peltola’s (D-Alaska) decision to vote present on a bill reversing several Biden administration actions restricting energy production in her red-leaning — though idiosyncratic — state is getting backup from an unlikely ally: GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski.

Peltola’s vote has raised eyebrows ahead of what’s expected to be a competitive reelection bid. She explained in a floor speech that she supported the “intent” of the legislation but that it “unintentionally pits two of Alaska's most important industries — energy and fisheries — against one another.” She’s listed as a co-sponsor of the legislation, the Alaska’s Right to Produce Act.

Murkowski told Inside Congress in an interview that Peltola’s vote “was something that Alaskans would understand.”

“It's more complicated for people back here [in Washington] who perhaps don't understand the significance that so many in Alaska place on the fisheries resource,” she said.

The NRCC seized on the vote, saying Biden’’s “liberal war on Alaska is Peltola’s biggest political liability and Alaskans won’t forget.”

Told of the House Republican campaign arm’s response to Peltola’s vote, Murkowski sighed: “As they probably would.”

— Anthony Adragna

CAPITOL EMPLOYEE SENDS SPICY PICS

An Architect of the Capitol employee was fired earlier this year for sending unsolicited photos of his genitals to a colleague and other people from his official work phone, according to an internal report. James Newton was removed from his role after multiple sexually explicit photos were found on the iPhone. The agency’s Office of Inspector General also reported that Newton had gambling apps on the work phone.

“The OIG’s investigation identified a victim who had been in receipt of a text message from Newton that contained the statement, ‘This is waiting for you,’ followed by two images of his exposed genitals,” according to the report.

— Katherine Tully-McManus 

 

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McCONNELL’S DERBYPALOOZA

Ahead of Saturday’s big race, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell hosted his annual Kentucky Derby themed lunch for his colleagues on Thursday, fully stocked with fried chicken, corn pudding, fried asparagus, biscuits and “Derby-Pie,” a trademarked product from Kern's Kitchen in Louisville.

And as for the horses? Were told McConnell’s pick is Catching Freedom, per a spokesperson. A Kentucky-bred horse owned by frequent GOP donor Dennis Albaugh, Catching Freedom is currently No. 4 on the Derby leaderboard at 9-1 odds.

Ursula Perano

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

Free bird in the Capitol no more

Wasting no time, Jared Moskowitz, Nancy Mace and Susan Wild launched the Congressional Dog Lovers Caucus, mere days after Kristi Noem detailed killing her puppy in a forthcoming memoir.

John Kennedy had some warm words of parenting advice for Pete Buttigieg.

The Michigan Teamsters endorsed Elissa Slotkin’s Senate campaign Thursday.

 

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QUICK LINKS 

Why the Senate GOP is downplaying the chances of a red wave, from Burgess Everett

Hakeem Jeffries isn’t speaker yet, but the Democrat may be the most powerful person in Congress by the AP’s Lisa Mascaro

 

THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. POLITICO Pro dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.

 
 

TRANSITIONS 

Sam Spector is joining the government relations team at Lenovo US as lead for cybersecurity policy. He was most recently director of government affairs and public policy for BlackBerry and is a DOD and House Energy and Commerce Committee alum.

Charlie Cadden is joining the Biden campaign as an email and SMS strategist. He currently is a legislative correspondent for Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.).

Georgina Burros will be comms director for Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.). She previously was chief comms officer for global issues at the British Embassy.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House and Senate are out.

FRIDAY AROUND THE HILL

Quiet.

TRIVIA

WEDNESDAY’S ANSWER: Florencio Briones was first to correctly guess that Rebecca Latimer Felton was the first woman appointed to the U.S. Senate.

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Florencio: Which president, along with several members of his Cabinet and a few congressmen, pitched in to put out a disastrous fire at the Library of Congress?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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