| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly voiced his opposition to an independent Palestinian state. | Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Lara Seligman, Erin Banco and Maggie Miller Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric It doesn’t seem like the right time for a wider normalization deal between the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel that includes Palestinians, a senior Israeli official told NatSec Daily today. This week, details about a possible progress toward a normalization deal between Washington, Riyadh and Israel have been trickling out. The latest: The New York Times reported that Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s office is considering a post-war Gaza plan in which Israel would share oversight of the territory with an alliance of Arab countries and the U.S. Israel would reportedly do so in exchange for normalized relations between itself and Saudi Arabia. But Arab officials have thrown cold water on that potential agreement, as it wouldn’t create an explicit path toward Palestinian statehood. And Israel continues to maintain that it’s staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood. Any agreement that includes “some type of deal between Israel and the Palestinians … I'm not sure if things are ripe for a wider arrangement,” FLEUR HASSAN-NAHOUM, Israel’s special envoy for foreign ministry, told your host. She emphasized that she wasn’t speaking for the Israeli government. U.S. officials say they’re making progress on a package between the countries, even though they’re not explaining how they might get around the impasse over Palestinian statehood. Saudi Arabia also won’t move forward while there are major ground operations underway in Gaza, so winding down the war is a precondition of a deal. On Thursday, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER said Washington and Riyadh are “very close” to a deal on a bilateral U.S.-Saudi security agreement — but that is only one part of a three-part package. The other parts still need work, Miller said. One is normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and another is a path to a two-state solution. “All of them are linked together. None go forward without the others,” Miller said. Netanyahu has repeatedly voiced his opposition to an independent Palestinian state. Hassan-Nahoum bashed the idea as well, saying that Palestinians need to do much more to prove they can govern their own state before Israel would consider a two-state solution. Bottomline: The U.S. wants Saudi normalization with Israel, but Israel probably won’t want to pay too high of a price. “While Israel is keen to achieve open relations with the Saudis, there is no urgency about achieving a deal, as opposed to a year or two from now, after the war is won,” CAROLINE GLICK, a former assistant foreign policy adviser to Netanyahu, told NatSec Daily.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | ONE WEEK ’TIL RAFAH? The Israeli military told aid groups and U.S. officials of a plan to begin removing Gazans from Rafah ahead of an invasion, our own ERIN BANCO, Matt and LARA SELIGMAN report. The Israel Defense Forces said they had developed a plan to move people out of Rafah, the main humanitarian hub in the enclave, to al-Mawasi, a small strip of land on the southern Gaza coast. This week, the IDF sent aid workers a map of the area, a copy of which POLITICO obtained. The Biden administration has repeatedly urged Israel to avoid an invasion of Rafah unless it has a plan to protect civilians sheltering there. But Israel has told Hamas that the militant group has a week to agree to a hostage deal, or else it’ll begin a military operation into Rafah, Egyptian officials told The Wall Street Journal's SUMMER SAID and OMAR ABDEL-BAQUI. Hamas’ military leader YAHYA SINWAR still hasn’t responded to a revised cease-fire proposal that Egypt hashed out with Israel last week, the officials told WSJ. Hamas wants a long-term truce and guarantees from Washington that Israel will respect the cease-fire, they added. “Soldiers are on call waiting,” Hassan-Nahoum told NatSec Daily, adding that plans to invade have been approved. “If we're going to go in, maybe that's the only thing that will get Hamas to sign a temporary cease-fire and return some of our hostages.” BAD BASE BUDS: The Biden administration is losing sleep over rogue Russian soldiers in Niger who could take actions to antagonize American troops there and force the U.S. to respond, Erin and Lara report. They’re worried that the Russian fighters — who are stationed at the same air base as American troops in the capital of Niamey — will engage in disruptive behavior such as driving aggressively or harassing U.S. troops at checkpoints, two officials familiar with Western intelligence said. The intelligence, they stressed, shows that Russian soldiers pose no immediate threat to the U.S. troops. But even small hostile encounters would increase the risk of a confrontation that could result in an exchange of fire. PIER PLANNING: The U.S. military’s project to build a pier off the coast of Gaza to deliver additional aid has been delayed by bad weather, Lara writes in. Officials “temporarily paused” work assembling the floating pier off the coast of Gaza “due to sea state considerations,” including high winds and sea swells, CENTCOM said in a statement today. The partially built pier and military vessels involved in the project have moved to the Port of Ashdod, in Israel, where they will continue construction. Officials were hoping to complete work on the pier as soon as this weekend, our colleagues scooped this week, but this will likely delay the project — and additional aid flowing into Gaza — by at least a few days. UKRAINE TOUGH TALK: The Kremlin bashed the U.K. and France today for making “dangerous” statements that it said could escalate the war in Ukraine and draw in Europe, The Associated Press’ SUSIE BLANN reports. Speaking with Reuters’ MAX HUNDER, U.K. Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON said Ukraine is allowed to use British weapons to strike inside Russia. On the same day, French President EMMANUEL MACRON repeated his openness to possibly sending troops to Ukraine. “This is a direct escalation of tensions around the Ukrainian conflict, which potentially may threaten European security, the entire European security architecture,” Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV told reporters. BLINKEN SNEAK PEEK: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will headline the McCain Institute’s annual Sedona Forum tonight. It starts at 10:50 p.m. EST, and we’re giving you a glimpse of what he might say in case you decide to pull out the popcorn. Because the format is a discussion with Sen. MITT ROMNEY (R-Utah), Blinken doesn’t have prepared remarks. But coming off of trips to China, Israel and Jordan and other countries, Blinken plans to discuss U.S. support for Ukraine following Congress’ passage of the supplemental, and how no matter the issue, “the challenges facing the U.S. and our allies will only deepen” without the U.S. playing a main role, a person familiar with the planning, granted anonymity to preview the forum, told NatSec Daily. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of the national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. This week, we’re highlighting Gen. MICAEL BYDÉN, the supreme commander of Sweden’s armed forces who spoke with Eric earlier this week about the war in Ukraine. Bydén likes to unwind with a beer, adding that it’ll probably be a lager. Just don’t expect to see him imbibing at a bar in Stockholm tonight. “Friday, when I leave work, I go directly back to family,” Bydén said. “I'm not sitting there at a bar or a nightclub or so. I'm at home, having a beer, something to eat and probably fall asleep in front of the TV.” Sounds like a perfect Friday night in our books. Skål, General! IT’S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | THREE PERCENT FLOOR? Former President DONALD TRUMP is considering calling on NATO members to spend three percent of their national budgets on defense, raising the stakes for the transatlantic alliance as it braces for a second Trump presidency, the Telegraph’s TONY DIVER and ROZINA SABUR report. An ally of the former president told the Telegraph that Trump had been considering calling for an increase to the alliance’s defense spending requirement and was reportedly convinced of the need for it after meeting with Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA in April. He also wants to change NATO budgeting rules such that aid to Ukraine would be excluded from counting toward the defense targets. The comments from Trump, who has long accused European countries of not paying “their fair share” within the alliance and leaving Washington to foot the bill for the common security pact, come as more a dozen members of the alliance are still failing to reach even the existing two percent spending target. Only Poland, Greece and the U.S. would clear Trump’s three percent target.
| | YOUR MOVE, MOSCOW: The State Department today joined Germany in formally alleging that a prolific Russian state-sponsored hacking group was behind a cyberattack last year on the German Social Democratic Party, as our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in. German Foreign Minister ANNALENA BAERBOCK told reporters Friday that the German government assessed that hacking group APT28, or Fancy Bear, was responsible for hacking into SDP email accounts, the party of Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ. Baerbock vowed that the attack, which took place in 2022 but that the SDP disclosed last year, “will not remain without consequences.” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER put out a statement condemning the cyberattack by Fancy Bear, which is the same Russian hacking group behind the 2016 cyberattacks on the Democratic National Committee and the presidential campaign of former Secretary of State HILLARY CLINTON. Miller noted that the Department of Justice had worked with the German government last year to take down a network of routers used by Fancy Bear in its attacks, part of a larger campaign by the agency to disrupt Fancy Bear’s attacks globally. GO PHISH: Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) was targeted by a phishing attack impersonating Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, our own KATHERINE TULLY-McMANUS and ANTHONY ADRAGNA reported Thursday.
| | | |   | | | | | WEAPONS WAITING GAME: Weapons from the U.S. supplemental aid package to Ukraine could take weeks, if not months, to get to the country’s beleaguered eastern front, The New York Times reports. While the U.S. and Western allies have stepped up deliveries, it’ll take months for Ukraine to amass the firepower and equipment needed to bolster its defenses on the battlefield, the Times says. Meanwhile, Russia has incrementally advanced, hoping to break through Ukraine’s lines ahead of the May 9 anniversary of Russia’s victory over Nazi Germany during World War II. The U.S. can typically organize and dispatch new weapons shipments very quickly, but not all of the needed weapons are currently available. An American official told the Times it would take time to determine which items could be given to Ukraine without depriving combat-ready NATO units of needed equipment. That includes Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and Humvee personnel carriers. Other weaponry, like the 155-millimeter artillery rounds that Ukraine desperately needs, is in short supply worldwide.
| | CUELLAR FACING INDICTMENT: The Justice Department indicted Rep. HENRY CUELLAR (D-Texas) and his wife on charges they took hundreds of thousands of dollars in bribes from an oil and gas company controlled by the Azerbaijani government and a Mexican bank, our own DANIELLA DIAZ and NICHOLAS WU report. The indictment is the culmination of a two-year federal probe into Cuellar, formerly the co-chair of the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus. The South Texas Democrat’s home was raided in January 2022 as part of a wider investigation. Cuellar's lawyer, JOSHUA BERMAN, told the Associated Press in April 2022 that federal authorities informed him the Democrat was not the target of the investigation. Cuellar and his wife deny wrongdoing. In a statement released before the indictment, Cuellar said he obtained two different opinions from the House Ethics Committee and an outside law firm that found no wrongdoing in his actions towards Azerbaijan and the businessmen as a member of Congress. He added that prosecutors refused to meet with him or get his side of the story during the investigation. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES said today that Cuellar will step down from his position as ranking member of the House Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee while he is under indictment. KEEPING ISRAEL IN CHECK: Eighty-six House members urged the Biden administration today to stop sending military assistance to Israel due to possible international humanitarian law violations. Despite Israel’s improvement in allowing aid into Gaza, there is “sufficient evidence” that Israel’s restrictions on the delivery of U.S.-backed humanitarian aid violate the law, the lawmakers wrote in a letter, led by Reps. JASON CROW (D-Colo.) and CHRIS DELUZIO (D-Penn.). They say Israel’s blockage contributed to the humanitarian disaster in the enclave, including reports of famine. It’s the latest pressure put on the Biden administration to stop sending weapons to Israel ahead of the State Department’s report, due May 8, on whether Israel has violated international humanitarian law.
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | GEORGIA ON THE LINE: Georgia’s prime minister rejected U.S. rebukes of a controversial “foreign agent” law that detractors have claimed mirrors Russia’s effort to clamp down on civil society, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports. Prime Minister IRAKLI KOBAKHIDZE posted on X that he told DEREK CHOLLET “that false statements made by the officials of the U.S. State Department about the transparency bill and street rallies remind us of similar false statements made by the former U.S. Ambassador in 2020-2023.” He also accused the U.S. of supporting “revolutionary processes” in the past. The “foreign agent” law, which targets NGOs and groups that receive foreign funding, has been heavily criticized by the European Union, which accepted Georgia as a candidate for membership despite concerns about democratic backsliding. Eighty percent of Georgians want to be closer to Brussels, but the country’s ruling party wants to retain its grip on power and is wary of alienating neighboring Russia and ending up like Ukraine, our own GABRIEL GAVIN reports.
| | — Biden appointed TONYA WILKERSON, currently deputy director of the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency, to serve as undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security. — The president appointed career foreign service officer ABIGAIL DRESSEL to serve as U.S. ambassador to Angola and São Tomé and Príncipe and career foreign service officer JAMES HOLTSNIDER to serve as U.S. ambassador to Samoa. — Former Raytheon International President TOM VECCHIOLLA has joined QinetiQ US as a member of the board of directors of its Special Security Agreement with the U.S. Defense Counterintelligence & Security Agency.
| | — MEREDITH LEE HILL, POLITICO: JOSÉ ANDRÉS is a White House ally. He’s also one of its chief critics on Gaza. — REBECCA PINCUS, War on the Rocks: Small ocean, big hype: Arctic myths and realities — FAREED ZAKARIA, Washington Post: The dangerous new call for regime change in Beijing
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | — Wilson Center's Polar Institute, 10 a.m.: EU-US Arctic cooperation — Middle East Forum and American Jewish University, 2 p.m.: Iran's attack on Israel, as part of the Israel's seven front war series — Heritage Foundation, 2 p.m.: Launch of "Chinese Handcuffs" project, exploring the Chinese Communist Party's calculated strategy to control 'green energy' sources — Freedom House, 6:30 p.m.: The consolidation of digital authoritarianism and looming threat of artificial intelligence — Jews United for Democracy and Justice, 8 p.m.: "Israel in Crisis," as part of the America at a crossroads series Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who hasn’t devised a “Plan B” for this newsletter while Eric is away on vacation. We also thank our producer, Giselle Ewing, who will make sure everything runs smoothly. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
