THE SPEAKER SURVIVES … FOR NOW Barely 24 hours after muddying her timeline, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) did it anyway – and lost big. Speaker Mike Johnson survived Greene’s first proposal to oust him, which was tabled on a lightning-quick 359-43 vote, with seven Democrats voting present. Only 10 conservatives voted alongside Greene to keep her speaker-firing push alive. It was an unquestionable victory for Johnson, though he got a big boost from the vast majority of Democrats who voted to keep him in place. But the Louisiana Republican’s time as speaker may have a serious time limit. Johnson reiterated this week that he intends to run again for the House’s top spot if Republicans keep the majority – and winning that race will be much tougher than his surprise victory last October. Johnson’s clearest remarks to date on his future plans drew a notable degree of skepticism from conservatives — even those who supported him on Wednesday’s ouster vote. A broad pulse check of Johnson’s right flank turned up two main findings: Quite a few aren’t committed to supporting him come January; and, in a larger potential headache, some of them anticipate he’ll have a challenger. “You’re going to see … multiple folks throw their names in the hat,” said Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.). He declined to talk about whether he would personally back Johnson. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said that whether he votes for Johnson in January “depends on who is running” but that he “absolutely” expects a challenger. “This is beyond personalities,” he added. “This is, what are you going to do?” Frustration on Johnson’s right has been building for months, mainly over a series of government funding fights, a recent battle over government surveillance powers and his decision to pass billions of dollars in new Ukraine aid. Johnson met with members of the conservative Freedom Caucus on Monday night, when members lined up to air their frustrations with his strategy. Many said they don’t think Johnson has fought hard enough for conservative priorities, Republicans in the group recounted to us. “He hasn’t made a strong case,” Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas) said about whether he could back Johnson again in January, stressing that he is focused on November for now. Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) — who mounted a symbolic challenge to former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in late 2022 — told us he isn’t running again for the top spot, but that “there are people positioning themselves to run for speaker.” Obviously, Johnson’s main antagonists will continue to oppose him: Greene, alongside Reps. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.). And the speaker’s number of prospective January foes grew during Wednesday’s surprise ouster test vote, with eight hardliners joining that trio: Biggs, Roy and Reps. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), Alex Mooney (R-W.Va.), Barry Moore (R-Ala.) and Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.). Now, some of those conservatives — Mooney and Crane in particular — had already indicated they weren’t in favor of bouncing the speaker. They may portray their votes as nothing more than procedural moves in favor of further debate on Johnson. But either way, it’s not a great sign for the next leadership election. Greene and her allies met twice with Johnson this week and have outlined four areas they want to see action on — leaving the door open, however vaguely, to repeated ouster attempts before the election. Those talks haven’t seemed to shake their belief that Johnson can’t win come January. “I think that’s still the case. It’s pretty obvious,” Massie said. Let’s do some math: How big of a problem Johnson has come January depends on a few things, namely a favorite variable of House GOP leaders: The size of their majority. Unlike McCarthy, Johnson is keeping his public estimates low, predicting that they will grow the majority but it will still be relatively narrow — in the neighborhood of a 10-seat margin. That would give him more room to maneuver than his predecessor, who had to make steep concessions to hardliners in order to win the gavel. But it’s not enough space for him to feel comfortable. Of course, whether he can keep the gavel also depends on who could successfully challenge him, and House Republicans made it clear this past October that such a person isn’t easy to find. The process: House Republicans would first hold internal conference leadership votes sometime after the November election, where Johnson would only need a simple majority of the GOP to become the speaker nominee — and get a much better sense of the size of his opposition. Assuming, of course, that the GOP wins the House. What happens if Republicans don’t win the majority? We’ll be brief: Republicans expect Johnson, like most speakers when the chamber flips, would be swept out of leadership. Or as one GOP member, who backs the speaker, acknowledged to us: “If we’re in the minority, where is he going to go? Out.” — Jordain Carney GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, May 8, where Nick is manifesting more recess time for the House (and Jordain wants the opposite). BIDEN ADMIN IS MOVING ON IMMIGRATION – CAN CONGRESS DO ANYTHING? Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), his party’s chief negotiator on a bipartisan border bill that imploded in the Senate earlier this year, said Wednesday that regardless of the Biden administration’s plans for executive action, Congress should still act. “My belief is that the administration has very little it can do by executive action. I think they are – they can't conjure resources, they can't fundamentally change asylum law. I'm game to listen to what they think is allowable, but I think it's a very narrow aperture,” he said. Murphy’s a bit of an outlier on the topic, breaking from lawmakers in both parties who say the only way this administration can do anything on immigration is through executive actions. After POLITICO first reported that the administration will propose new asylum changes on Thursday – effectively allowing the U.S. to expedite the removal of migrants whom officials see as potentially ineligible to stay in the country – the question is whether the Nutmegger has enough allies to keep Congress relevant this year. Progressives and top Hispanic lawmakers have recently stepped up their case that it’s time for the Biden administration to go it alone on immigration, seeing congressional action on immigration and the border as likely stalled out until 2025 at the earliest. “President Biden should seize this critical moment by exercising his Executive Authority to rebuild our broken immigration system,” Congressional Hispanic Caucus Chair Rep. Nanette Barragán (D-Calif.) said. “We urge him to provide pathways to citizenship and protections for the millions of long-term undocumented residents who have contributed to the rich fabric of the United States.” But one leading Hispanic Democrat sees room for Murphy’s vision. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said in an interview conducted prior to news of Thursday’s planned executive action that he thinks “it's possible” parts of the failed border deal could come back to the chamber floor sometime this term. Even so, Padilla said passage remains “probably not likely, because I don't think anything's changed other than Trump's rhetoric getting more and more cruel.” Padilla was among the most vocal critics of the previous round of border negotiations that failed earlier this year. While he acknowledged the need for an “orderly” border, he’s pushing for a “balanced approach.” In short, for Padilla and other progressives: More attention to the undocumented bloc known as Dreamers, farmworkers and other vulnerable groups should be part of the conversation. “We go through these periods of scapegoating immigrants, but when we move back away from that and stay true to our values, we're a stronger country as a result,” he said. — Daniella Diaz, Nicholas Wu and Ursula Perano
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