| | | | |  | | By Calder McHugh | | Presented by |  | | | |  France's President Emmanuel Macron and China's President Xi Jinping enjoy a drink in a restaurant at the Tourmalet pass in the Pyrenees mountains today. | Pool photo by Aurelien Morissard | ‘DIPLOMATIC THIN GRUEL’ — In a mountain pass in the Pyrenees this week, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping for talks today in the midst of a fraying relationship between the EU and China. Macron has in the past signaled more of a willingness to be friendly to China than some of his EU and U.S. allies — in particular, on the issue of Taiwan. But he nevertheless faced obstinance from Xi on issues including a looming EU-China trade war and Beijing’s role in Russia’s war in Ukraine. In Xi’s first trip to Europe since 2019, after a day in Paris, the two leaders traveled to the Pyrenees and reportedly dined on locally grown lamb, ham, cheese and blueberry pie. And Macron left with a promise from the Chinese leader that he would support a global truce during the Paris Olympics this summer. Unlike five years ago, though, the two sides didn’t agree on any new trade deals, nor did they manage to lower the temperature on concerns about their future economic partnership. Now, Xi will head off to Serbia and Hungary, where he’s sure to find much friendlier faces among European leaders more closely aligned with Russia. But as the EU now finds itself almost in lockstep with U.S. policy on China, Xi’s visit did little to reverse that course. To break down Xi’s trip and what’s next for China-EU and China-U.S. relations, Nightly spoke with Phelim Kine, the author of the China Watcher newsletter who has been closely tracking this visit and its implications for global diplomacy. This interview has been edited. It’s been 5 years since Xi Jinping has traveled to Europe. Why is he traveling there now? The official reason for the visit — which includes France, Serbia and Hungary — is to mark the 60th anniversary of China’s relations with France on the first stop of his trip and the 75th anniversary of official ties with Hungary on his last stop. So Chinese state media is playing up the trip as Xi’s celebration of friendly relations with European nations. But the subtext for the trip is that Xi is anxious to fend-off a looming trade war with the European Union and seeking to leverage French Prime Minister’s Emmanuel Macron’s more Beijing-friendly stance to dilute growing EU concern about both China’s predatory trade practices and its alignment with Russia’s war on Ukraine. In his last two stops in Serbia and Hungary, he’ll reap praise of how China’s foreign policies are benefiting those two countries. What have Xi, Macron, and other leaders discussed in Europe? The key discussion topics mirror those that both U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have discussed in their meetings with senior Chinese officials in recent weeks. Top of the list is the threat of Chinese industrial overcapacity fueling a wave of cheap, state-subsidized imports into the EU of items including electrical vehicles and solar panels that will imperil domestic producers. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen threatened the “full use of trade defense instruments” if Beijing doesn’t act to stop such exports. The other major issue has been European concern about China’s role in rebuilding Russia’s industrial base and providing key components that allow Moscow to continue its war on Ukraine. Notably Xi dodged on both these issues, as he has done with the U.S. That means Macron came out of two days with Xi with the diplomatic thin gruel of a Xi promise to not impose preemptive tariffs on French Cognac and an agreement to support Macron’s call for a global military truce during the upcoming Paris summer Olympics. What are the issues that have taken a back burner? The last time Xi visited Europe was in 2019 and there’s a stark difference in the “deliverables” that earlier visit reaped: multi-billion dollar trade deals on everything from agricultural products to Airbus passenger planes. Trade is still a key issue in the China-France-EU relationship, but it is now defensive and rancorous rather than ebullient and positive the way it was five years ago. In Europe, as in the U.S., the concept of “engagement” with China has become taboo politically and the focus is now on preventing or mitigating Beijing’s impact on the EU, politically and economically, rather than bagging trade deals that Beijing trumpets as proof of “win-win cooperation.” What is the state of relations between the EU, China and the United States? How might this trip change that, and what does each side want to get out of the trip? Xi’s objective was to try to move Macron and France from the wider EU suspicion and hostility toward China fueled by Beijing’s predatory trade practices and support for a land war on the EU’s doorstep. That EU position is increasingly mirroring that of the Biden administration and its China strategy hinged to a “de-risking” (or what Beijing insists is “decoupling”) of its economic ties with China to both protect vulnerable domestic industries from China’s industrial juggernaut and fence off strategically vital industries and products — think high-tech semiconductors — that could benefit China’s military industrial complex. Growing EU concerns about Chinese espionage — fueled by last month’s arrests in Germany of four people accused of spying for Beijing — are also changing the tenor and quality of the EU-China relationship. This trip has done little or nothing to change that dynamic. To a large extent Xi and his French and European commission counterparts spoke past each other with minimum returns for either side. That underscores both the depth of mutual distrust and Xi’s unwillingness to budge on issues that he considers vital for China’s domestic economy and its wider geostrategic interests. Xi and Macron called for an “Olympic truce” — a stop to global fighting during the Olympic Games in Paris this summer. What’s the thought behind that statement, and how much does China plan to use its power to attempt to enforce it? We’ve learned that words are cheap when it comes to China’s willingness to use its influence to curb military conflicts. Keep in mind that the Chinese government has rhetorically supported an end to the war in Ukraine for the past two years, but has refused to apply any pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict. Instead, Beijing has provided Moscow an economic lifeline in the face of Western sanctions on Russia and is providing the components that allow Putin to continue that aggression. Likewise Beijing has rendered zero substantive assistance — despite its close relationship with Hamas’ patron Iran — in helping to broker an end to the Israel-Gaza war or the release of hostages held by Hamas. With respect to Xi’s commitment to support an “Olympic Truce” this summer, we can expect a lot of Chinese state media and foreign ministry rhetoric about China’s support for peace, but small likelihood that Beijing will actually use its influence. And there is no guarantee that Putin would heed a call by Beijing to pause a summer offensive against Ukraine given that Russia launched an invasion of Georgia during the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Xi’s next stops are Serbia and Hungary. Why is he going to those places right now? Serbia and Hungary are two of the only countries in Europe where Xi is guaranteed a warm welcome these days. Both of those countries are pro-Russian in their foreign policy and have reaped massive injections of Chinese infrastructure funding through Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative program. So Xi won’t get an earful about either Beijing’s trade policies nor its support for Russia’s war on Ukraine. And Beijing timed Xi’s visit to Serbia to coincide with the 25th anniversary of the accidental NATO attack on the Chinese embassy in what is now Serbia’s capital Belgrade. That has given Xi the opportunity to push a narrative of China as a victim of Western aggression. “NATO flagrantly bombed the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, killing three Chinese journalists,” Xi said in a letter published by the Serbian media platform Politika today. The capstone of Xi’s EU trip will be meetings with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has remained a staunch supporter of Beijing amid a wider souring of the EU-China relationship. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
| | | | A message from eBay: Small businesses rely on trust. That’s why eBay has invested billions into building a trusted online marketplace for everyone. The result? Millions of flourishing businesses and entrepreneurs thrive on eBay. And 43% of sellers are in small towns and rural communities. See how the original find-anything marketplace is America’s go-to small-business platform. | | | | | STORMY DAY — Stormy Daniels, the porn star whose hush money payment is at the center of Donald Trump’s criminal case, took the stand today. Today was the first time Daniels and Trump have been in the same room since allegations were made public about a hush money payment, and after years of the two trading crass insults and being involved in legal battles. While much of the New York case has involved dry details about financial bookkeeping, today it took a sharp return to tabloid sex and scandal. Daniels shed light on allegations she has made about her relationship with Trump, the alleged hush money plan, and her claims that she was threatened to keep quiet about their affair. According to Daniels, the then-real estate mogul and TV star invited her to dinner and their sexual encounter happened inside a hotel room. She was 27 at the time and Trump was 60, and his wife, Melania Trump, had recently given birth to their only son Barron. Trump has denied having sex. Daniels described the encounter in embarrassing detail. She said that Trump was wearing pajamas and she asked him to change, but then later when she emerged from the bathroom, he was waiting on the bed for her. Her testimony appeared to anger Trump. The former president shook his head when she testified that Trump told her that he and Melania don’t sleep in the same bed, and he appeared to mouth the word “bullshit” when she said she “swatted” him with a magazine on his backside during an encounter in Lake Tahoe. ON THE CROSS — Daniels had repeated heated exchanges with Trump’s defense lawyer Susan Necheles during her cross-examination. One particularly intense interaction occurred as Susan Necheles questioned Daniels’ interactions with famed attorney Gloria Allred — specifically their discussions about a possible lawsuit against Trump and Daniels’ account in her book of not telling Allred that Daniels and Trump had sex. “She wanted me to accuse him of forced — basically rape, and so I didn’t continued that conversation,” Daniels said. “You’re making this up as you sit there right now?” Necheles shot back heatedly. “No,” Daniels insisted. MISTRIAL DENIED — Trump defense attorney Todd Blanche moved for a mistrial after the lunch break, arguing that prosecutors went beyond the scope of the testimony they were permitted to elicit while questioning Stormy Daniels this morning. Blanche raised a number of examples, including Daniels’ statement that she “blacked out” during the sexual encounter with Trump and her assertion that she picked public events to subsequently meet with Trump. Blanche called them “extraordinarily prejudicial” and said they could taint the jury’s ability to properly weigh the evidence presented in the trial. You can’t “unring this bell,” Blanche told the judge. Justice Juan Merchan denied the motion — and partly blamed the defense for allowing the testimony to stray from the evidence in the case. “There were some things that would have been better left unsaid,” the judge said. But, he added, he was surprised at how few objections the defense raised during the testimony and noted he had to object himself at one point. “The defense has to take some responsibility for that,” the judge said. POSTPONED IN FLORIDA — The judge presiding over Donald Trump’s criminal case in Florida — on charges that he hoarded classified secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate after his presidency — has indefinitely postponed the trial, once scheduled for May 20. The date had been widely expected to move amid a tangle of pretrial conflicts between special counsel Jack Smith and Trump’s attorneys. Smith had urged Judge Aileen Cannon to reschedule the trial to begin on July 8, but an order from the judge this afternoon suggested that she is unlikely to even decide on a new trial date before late July.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | — Greene relents, for now, on bid to oust Johnson: Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is seemingly retreating from her threat to hold a referendum on Mike Johnson’s speakership this week after two meetings with the GOP leader. The Georgia firebrand is backing away from her pledge to hold an ouster vote, for now, saying the small band of conservative rebels interested in booting him would continue to watch Johnson’s actions moving forward. The speaker was widely expected to survive any attempted firing this week, as Democrats had committed to helping him. “We will see. … Right now the ball is in Mike Johnson’s court,” she responded, when reporters repeatedly pressed her on whether she would carry out her promise to force the vote. — U.S. report on Israel’s wartime conduct in Gaza delayed, aides say: The Biden administration’s report on whether Israel has violated U.S. and international humanitarian law during the war in Gaza has been delayed indefinitely, three Senate aides and a House aide told POLITICO. The State Department has been expected to issue a report Wednesday with a determination on whether Israel has violated international humanitarian law since the war in Gaza began. If so, the U.S. would be expected to stop sending Israel military assistance. But the report won’t be finished by Wednesday, said the aides, granted anonymity to discuss internal communications. In an email, the Biden administration notified the Hill that it will miss the date — without providing a clear reason why. — Biden warns of a ‘ferocious’ surge in antisemitism in the U.S. and across the globe: President Joe Biden today warned of a “ferocious” surge of antisemitism in America and around the world, in comments that both called out the violent excesses of pro-Palestinian campus protest and reaffirmed the U.S. alliance with Israel. “On college campuses, Jewish students [have been] blocked, harassed, attacked, while walking to class,” Biden declared. “Antisemitism, antisemitic posters, slogans calling for the annihilation of Israel, the world’s only Jewish state. Too many people denying, downplaying, rationalizing, ignoring the horrors of the Holocaust and Oct. 7... It is absolutely despicable, and it must stop.”
| | THE MEDIATOR — Donald Trump is going further than just public statements supporting Speaker Mike Johnson — he’s actually trying to mediate between the House GOP leader and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, reports POLITICO. So far, it’s unclear if the ex-president can convince one of his most loyal followers to back off her threat to force a vote ousting the speaker. Trump and the Georgia firebrand, who speak often, had a lengthy phone call over the weekend, according to three Republicans familiar with the matter. Trump’s message to her, per those people: Stand down from the so-called motion to vacate. “I have it under very, very good sources that President Trump did engage. And I’m hoping that perhaps one would come to the conclusion: ‘You made your point,’” said Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.), citing a weekend discussion the former president had with Greene. “But don’t be Kamikaze, because if you go for this, you’re gonna get beaten down. And he made that point. I’m hoping that’s the outcome.” VEEP TRYOUTS — Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and almost a dozen other vice presidential contenders have flooded cable and network news recently, with an eye toward serving as Trump’s running mate, writes POLITICO. Perhaps more importantly, Trump and top aides have been closely monitoring what they’ve been doing. As the former president decides whom to pick, he is specifically watching to see what they’re doing to help his campaign, according to a person close to Trump who was granted anonymity to describe internal deliberations. The former president is looking at how they perform in news interviews — both in terms of defending him and taking on President Joe Biden — and what steps they are taking to raise money for the campaign and widen Trump’s donor network. Those familiar with the deliberations say Trump is also examining the various candidates for potential positions in his administration, should he win. On the occasions that prospective vice presidential candidates appear at his rallies, Trump is looking at how they perform as surrogates and how the crowds react to their speeches.
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Palestinians crowd a street as smoke billows nearby from Israeli strikes in Rafah today. | AFP via Getty Images | HUMANITARIAN CRISIS — Israeli tanks entered the Gazan city of Rafah this morning — despite months of warnings by allies and aid groups that a full-scale attack would be a humanitarian catastrophe. More than half of the population of Gaza — 1.4 million people, the majority of whom arrived having already been displaced from further north — are trapped in Rafah. Civilians in eastern Rafah have been told by Israel to leave to a “humanitarian zone” in Al-Mawasi, on the western coast of the Gaza Strip. However, in that zone civilians continue to face attacks, as well as severe shortages of water, food and vital aid, according to relief agencies. Israeli forces also seized control of the Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt today and closed another aid route, Kerem Shalom, in southern Israel — citing security reasons. Northern Gaza has already entered a “full-blown famine,” the U.N. World Food Programme chief Cindy McCain told U.S. media on Sunday, with the entire Gazan population facing acute hunger levels due to the raging war and the blocking of humanitarian aid.
| | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | NEW ‘FRIENDS’ — On an artificial intelligence platform called Character.AI, there are thousands of characters with whom users can chat — from a sassy Elon Musk to a bot called “Psychologist,” which is supposedly trained in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, a type of talking therapy that helps people manage their problems. But as teenagers sign up for Character.AI and use the “Psychologist” feature — in some cases, so much that it seems like a friend and they admit to being “addicted” to it — there are worries that it might not know the particulars of CBT and it might be misdiagnosing teens during a time in their life when they’re prone to instability. Jessica Lucas reports for The Verge.
| | | |  On this date in 1989: Panamanians wait in line to vote in the presidential election. Voter turnout was described as heavy and there were no reports of disturbances. However, military leader Manuel Noriega's government annulled the election results, helping to set the scene for the U.S. invasion of Panama later that year. | Luis Romero/AP | | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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