Gut-check summer

Presented by Canadian Dental Association: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jun 21, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Kyle Duggan and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

Presented by 

Canadian Dental Association

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ Where things stand at the end of the spring sitting — and what’s next.

→ MPs call on Canada to meet the NATO 2 percent pledge.

→ Who’s up, who’s down.

DRIVING THE DAY

Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during the closing press conference of the Ukraine peace summit in Obbürgen, Switzerland, Sunday, June 16, 2024. Switzerland is hosting scores of world leaders this weekend to try to map out the first steps toward peace in Ukraine. (AP Photo/Laurent Cipriani)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at the Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland last Sunday. | AP

OK, WHAT’S NEXT? — Parliament is revving down for the summer, but political pundits tell Playbook lawmakers have a lot of hard thinking to do over the next 87 days before they return.

— Thinking cap time: “It's a bit of a pivotal moment for the Liberals with that 20-point gap,” said former NDP adviser JORDAN LEICHNITZ.

“They spent the session trying a lot of different things to get out of the hole, and none of them seem to have had any effect.”

And they still haven't changed any of the big things: their leader, troublesome policies like the carbon tax, or their main spokespeople, like Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Leichnitz said. “Those things I think over the summer may come into play.”

— Near, medium, far term: MELANIE PARADIS of Texture Communications said she’s watching like everyone else for the results of the Toronto-St. Paul’s by-election Monday and how the Liberals will react.

She nodded to Trudeau running out of time on the option to step aside as leader, making Canada Day the next likely get-off-here/walk-in-the-snow watch date.

Then closer to fall, Paradis will watch for the reset options Liberals reach for depending on the polling situation: Maybe a prorogue or another Cabinet shuffle.

— Comms check: GREG MACEACHERN of KAN Strategies says he’s not expecting a shuffle, although the prime minister may want some tweaks.

“The Cabinet shuffle [last summer] really raised expectations and the reality is a lot of those ministers were underperformers,” he said. “The ministers that are doing very well right now are the ones that actually speak like human beings, and I think the summer might be a good time for Cabinet ministers to think about that.”

— Vibe check: He says Parliament’s been locked in a downward spiral on “tone and tenor” this spring, with a lot of “empty calorie” politics and news stories during the past six months.

“When you lower the bar continually, there will be ramifications — not always positive to the ones lowering the bar,” he said. “If you try to weaponize everything your opponents do, and that's on all sides of the political spectrum, people get tired of it and they stop paying close attention.”

— Choppa the SACA?: The NDP has a lot of soul searching to do over its Supply and Confidence Agreement pact that’s keeping the Liberals in power.

“It's definitely going to be a time of reflection for the New Democrats about the agreement,” said Leichnitz. “It accomplished a lot of the things that they set out to do, and they come out of the session with some pretty solid wins on anti-scab, pharmacare, dentalcare — people are now receiving benefits out of this agreement,” she said.

But the party has to ask itself what it still wants from it — or if it’s time to jettison.

“Over the summer, JAGMEET SINGH really needs to reflect on the future of the confidence and supply agreement because it doesn't make any sense to continue,” says Paradis. “The NDP are [polling] completely flat.”

— Frenemies: MacEachern says Singh had trouble managing a strange balancing act, netting policy wins then pivoting to attack the PM.

“The NDP could point to making it work, but instead, I think they were very spooked by the polls and thought they needed to try to give two seemingly contradictory messages simultaneously.”

 — Back into the thick of it: When the House whirls back into action Sept. 16, it will be “right in the throes of silly season for the U.S. election,” Paradis said, and politicians should be wary of the temptation to weigh in since USMCA renegotiations are right around the corner.

— The tricky 2s: Two U.S. presidential debates (so far), two by-elections (Toronto—St. Paul's to replace CAROLYN BENNETT and LaSalle—Émard—Verdun for DAVID LAMETTI’s seat) and two central bank rate decisions to go until fall.

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Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU joins a trail walk and storytelling session for National Indigenous Peoples Day in Cape Breton and will make a 12:30 p.m. announcement on historic claims and better education for Indigenous people.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Vancouver visiting an Indigenous nonprofit organization.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE did not release a Friday schedule but has a Saturday morning rally scheduled in Rivière-du-Loup, Quebec.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Edmonton where at 10:15 a.m. local time he will attend National Indigenous Peoples Day celebrations at the Bent Arrow Traditional Healing Society with MP BLAKE DESJARLAIS and NDP candidate for Edmonton Centre TRISHA ESTABROOKS. At 11:45 a.m., they’ll drop in on the Bissell Centre.

At 6:30 p.m., Singh will be in Calgary at BMO Centre at Stampede Park to speak at a gala for outgoing Alberta NDP Leader RACHEL NOTLEY.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will travel from Ottawa to Sidney, British Columbia, in the morning with private appointments in the afternoon.

DULY NOTED


— Members of the Freedom Convoy hold a 1:30 p.m. press conference in West Block.

— Governor General MARY SIMON takes part in an art activity with schoolchildren to launch the “Honouring Memories, Planting Dreams” heart garden at Rideau Hall at 9:30 a.m.

For your radar


PRESSURE AMPED, AGAIN — The Commons national defense committee is calling on the government to yank Canada out of what defense think-tanker DAVID PERRY has dubbed NATO’s “quadrant of shame.”

— The calls are coming from inside the House: The topline from their new report for anyone obsessed with that 2-percent-of-GDP target: A majority of MPs on the panel say Canada should make good on its commitment to the alliance’s minimum for defense spending.

— Timing, timing: They add their voices to the mix of U.S. lawmakers and lobby groups just weeks before the big NATO confab in July, where the figure will be a sore spot for Canada.

The committee, chaired by Liberal MP JOHN MCKAY, produced the report the same day NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG was in Ottawa lauding Canada’s contributions to the alliance.

The report is largely focused on how to fix Canada’s problem-plagued defense procurement system — one of the reasons the government cites for missing the target.

“Why would we continue to fill the books with additional money if that money can’t get out the door?” Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND told reporters earlier this week.

— Pop open the hood: The committee study heard warnings from experts about labyrinthine complexity and gridlock in the system, risk-averse public servants, a lack of political urgency in equipping the military and limited public interest.

— Committee recommendations: Produce an industrial strategy to build out the domestic industrial base. Create a secretariat in PCO to keep procurement a top priority for the PM’s office. “Depoliticize procurement decisions and increase the chances of them persisting across changes in government by redesigning the procurement process.”

— Minority views: The Conservatives on the committee, spearheaded by JAMES BEZAN, called for a reversal of last year’s cuts to the defense budget and suggest designating a Cabinet minister to be “accountable for all defense procurement.”

— Not everyone’s on board: The NDP called the NATO 2-percent target an “ideologically driven outsourcing of civilian jobs and the price-gouging by the American Military-Industrial Complex.”

 

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PAPER TRAIL


ABOUT THAT MOOSE — National Defense didn’t pay to focus-group test the public on its new icon resembling a moose and a human in camouflage that drew fire online.

Instead, it asked members of the military, who gave it the thumbs up.

The details are included in a parliamentary paper, produced on the final sitting day of the House of Commons, in response to a research question by Conservative MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER.

— Work done in-house: The department said the graphics and promotion was all created internally, with no external costs for comms or promotion, nor for focus groups or public opinion testing.

The directorate of army public affairs held two internal focus groups to “help tailor the communications strategy around the revitalized army branding.”

“These sessions, which were led by three public affairs personnel, involved approximately 30 personnel from Canadian Forces Base Petawawa and Canadian Forces Base Valcartier. … Members provided positive feedback on all components, including the new icon.”

The focus groups resulted in a slight tweak to the shape of the bullet design that appears under the new army tagline, “Strong. Proud. Ready.”

— Who signed off: A host of top army brass were involved in the approval process, including the commander of the Canadian Army, Lt. Gen. JOCELYN PAUL, and Deputy Commander Maj. Gen. PETER SCOTT. No ministerial names appeared.

“The overall communications plan was approved by the Deputy Commander of the Canadian Army, though most individual tweets related to the unveiling of the new icon were approved by the [director of the army public affairs directorate].”

Talk of the town

Former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien signs a basketball for Dani Brajshori, a Kosovar refugee in Canada. Also in the photo: Erin O'Toole, ADIT's managing director for North America; Billie Flynn, the commanding officer of Canadian Task Force Aviano who flew combat missions over Kosovo; and Michael Ward, commander of Canadian ground forces in Kosovo.

Jean Chrétien signs a basketball for Dani Brajshori, a Kosovar refugee in Canada. | Nick Taylor-Vaisey

REMEMBERING KOSOVO — Former Prime Minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN signed a pair of basketballs after a private lunch yesterday in the Rideau Club's “Borden” room.

The 90-year-old Chrétien has not recently discovered a love for the game. Twenty-five years ago, he played pickup basketball with Kosovar refugees who'd fled war in their homeland. One of Thursday's lunch guests, DANI BRAJSHORI, was the son of a man — NEZIR BRAJSHORI — who helped Chrétien up at one point after he took a spill.

Chrétien invited Nezir to visit Parliament. Dani called that invitation a "significant factor" in his father's decision to move to Ottawa where, eventually, he took up the PM's offer.

— Parallel alert: The location of that pickup game? CFB Borden in southern Ontario.

— Thank you, PM: Kosovo's ambassador to Canada, ADRIATIK KRYEZIU, announced Thursday that his country would bestow on Chrétien its Presidential Medal of Merit, the highest honor available to a foreign national. Kryeziu was at the lunch.

Chrétien signed basketballs for Kryeziu and Brajshori.

— Also in the room: ERIN O'TOOLE, ADIT's managing director for North America (and organizer of the lunch); BILLIE FLYNN, the commanding officer of Canadian Task Force Aviano who flew combat missions over Kosovo; and MICHAEL WARD, who Canadian ground forces in Kosovo.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


UP: The Liberals might be down in the polls, but they ended the week on a high note winning praise from NATO’s outgoing chief for Canada’s defense contributions, despite the constant headlines about failing on 2 percent.

DOWN: Global News’ bid to have former Liberal MP HAN DONG’s court case thrown out.

MEDIA ROOM


— Top of POLITICO this hour: Trump raised so much last month he erased Biden’s cash advantage.

“What do politicians really think of journalists?” was the conversation starter on “The Bridge” this week. GERRY BUTTS put it this way: “Political people no longer believe that journalists carry around some sort of special public purpose.”

— Liberal MP JOHN MCKAY spoke with the Star’s ALEX BALLINGALL about his decision to retire. (Toronto MP MICHAEL COTEAU will vie for the seat, the story reports.)

— Bloomberg’s BRIAN PLATT reports the Liberals are preparing potential new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

— Our POLITICO colleagues in D.C. and Europe teamed up to report on a scorched-earth summer: Biden, Sunak and Macron go negative.

— In case you missed it, former PM KIM CAMPBELL offered RISHI SUNAK advice in an interview on the “Comment is Free” Substack.

— POLITICO’s STUART LAU has the big 5 challenges NATO’s next chief MARK RUTTE faces when he assumes the role.

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PROZONE


Don’t miss the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers via ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN: Who wants what from Canada at the WTO. 

In other news for Pro readers:  

Biden admin asks SCOTUS to clear path for nuclear waste storage.

Whatever happened to the European climate kids?

Senators, business groups demand action after Canada passes digital services tax.

New York becomes first state to ban social media algorithms for kids.

WHO issues alert on counterfeit weight-loss drugs.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Sen. ROSA GALVEZ, Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ, former Nova Scotia MLA BROOKE TAYLOR, Ontario Native Women’s Association founding member JEANNETTE CORBIERE LAVELL and JONATHAN MOSER of Moser Public Affairs.

On Saturday: Former MPs WAYNE EASTER, BEV SHIPLEY, IAN MCCLELLAND and JENNIFER COSSITT; PAM HRICK of the Women's Legal Education and Action Fund, SARINA REHAL of Crestview Strategy.

On Sunday: LAUREEN HARPER, JUDY FOOTE, Newfoundland and Labrador’s 14th and first female lieutenant governor, Conservative MP KELLY MCCAULEY (60), former MLA BOB TURNER, DAN PUJDAK of Blackbird Strategies.

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way.

Spotted: The Oilers flag in D.C.

The Oilers flag is raised in Washington by a contingent that includes James Rajotte, Alberta's senior representative in D.C. (second from the right) and Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz, (fourth from the left).

The Oilers flag is raised in Washington by a contingent that includes James Rajotte, Alberta's senior representative in D.C. (second from the right) and Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz, (fourth from the left). | Luiza Savage, POLITICO

A parliamentary research question by Conservative MP BLAKE RICHARDS gleaning the production cost of the 2024 federal budget: printing cost C$269,858.61, design C$180 and translation $120,055.41, totalling $390,094.02.

Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE name-checking “The Pleb” at a Montreal rally, telling the YouTuber streamer known for anti-Trudeau trolling to “keep up the great work” while throwing up a peace sign for the camera (h/t RACHEL GILMORE).

Movers and shakers: Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY has appointed JOANNE MINNS as Canada’s ambassador to South Sudan … Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has appointed SIMON DONNER and SARAH HOUDE as new co-chairs of the Net-Zero Advisory Body … Justice Minister ARIF VIRANI has promoted GEORGE DOLHAI to director of the Public Prosecution Service of Canada.

In memoriam: The office of ERIC WALSH, Canada’s high commissioner in Sri Lanka and Maldives, confirms his wife LUCIE TSAI died this week and is encouraging donations to an animal rights organization in lieu of flowers.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: ALEXANDER MACKENZIE was prime minister when HUGH COSSART BAKER JR. launched Canada's first commercial telephone service.

Props to DARRYL DAMUDE, BOB GORDON, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BENEDICTA ARTHUR, PATRICK DION and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Friday’s question: Name the governor general who announced National Aboriginal Day, now known as National Indigenous Peoples Day.

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: KYLE DUGGAN

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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