| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | POSTCARD FROM MEXICO — “‘We Are Losing Sovereignty’: How Mexico’s Failures Imperil the US,” by Matt Kaminski: “It’s more than drugs and border crossings. As criminals take control of territory south of the border, the U.S. could lose its top trading partner and potentially strongest ally.” AP’s election preview SPOTTED IN SAN SALVADOR — Test your MAGA knowledge: How many of these people can you identify?
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New data is showing the early ramifications of the conviction of Donald Trump. And it's not great for the former president. | Alex Kent for POLITICO | BLANCHE: TRUMP COULD GO TO JAIL — In the last 48 hours we’ve noticed a shift in conventional wisdom over whether DONALD TRUMP might be incarcerated, with more legal analysts now saying it’s possible. Now, in an interview with the AP, Trump lawyer TODD BLANCHE is admitting it could happen: “On the one hand, it would be extraordinary to send a 77-year-old” — 78 on June 14 — “to prison for a case like this. A first-time offender who was also president of the United States, I mean, I think almost unheard of,” Blanche told Michael Sisak and Jill Colvin. “On the other hand, Blanche said, ‘this is a very highly publicized case’ in which some might argue Trump deserves a harsher punishment because he faces charges elsewhere. ‘So it’s going to be a very, I think, contentious sentencing where we’re going to obviously argue strenuously for a non-incarceratory sentence.’” Watch the prosecution’s filings in the run-up to the July 11 sentencing to see if they raise the 54 other charges pending against Trump as a reason Trump should face jail time — in addition to his lack of remorse, attacks on the justice system and ten contempt citations. Notable, via WaPo: Trump Org CFO ALLEN WEISSELBERG, who was 76 and had no criminal record, “was sentenced to five months in jail after pleading guilty to tax fraud, conspiracy and other counts” — by one Justice JUAN MERCHAN. POLITICAL FALLOUT: DAY 2 — We finally have some data this morning about the political impact. And it’s significant. “Ten percent of Republican registered voters say they are less likely to vote for Donald Trump following his felony conviction for falsifying business records to cover up a hush money payment to a porn star,” according to a new Reuters poll of 2,556 adults taken on Thursday and Friday after the verdict. That is a significant number and higher than the results in some hypothetical polling before the verdict. Some important caveats: Sometimes poll respondents don’t want to admit that something like a criminal conviction wouldn’t change their vote, and partisans who express concern about new negative information about their party’s candidate often come to terms with it over time and come back to the fold (see Jan. 6). But the shift in the Reuters poll wasn’t just with Republicans: “Among independent registered voters, 25% said Trump's conviction made them less likely to support him in November, compared to 18% who said they were more likely and 56% who said the conviction would have no impact on their decision.” There are no crosstabs available, so it’s unclear if the voters turned off by the conviction are within some of the the key swing groups identified by a mass of polling this year: young voters, nonwhite voters and less-engaged voters. But in the head-to-head, President JOE BIDEN was up by two points, 41% to 39%. The numbers stand as counterpoint to the GOP bravado, led by the Trump campaign, about how Trump’s 34 felony convictions and potential jail sentence will have no effect on the election. That has prompted a rhetorical arms race, with various Republicans calling the verdict a historical travesty of justice that requires DAs and AGs to retaliate (see Rep. MIKE COLLINS of Georgia), the intervention of the Supreme Court (see Speaker MIKE JOHNSON), a congressional investigation (see House Judiciary Chair JIM JORDAN), the “end” of candidates who disagree with any of this (see Trump campaign honcho CHRIS LaCIVITA) and the adoption of the upside-down American flag as the movement’s symbol. As for what Republicans and Democrats really think about the political consequences of the trial, watch swing-district GOP House incumbents and the most vulnerable Democratic senators seeking re-election. They have all been more cautious so far in their pronouncements. Taking stock of the House centrists, WaPo notes: “The list of those silent included Rep. BRIAN FITZPATRICK (Pa.), Rep. TOM KEAN JR. (N.J.) and four California Republicans — DAVID G. VALADAO, MIKE GARCIA, YOUNG KIM and MICHELLE STEEL.” And in terms of the Senate Dems, here’s our Daniella Diaz and Ally Mutnick relaying what Sens. SHERROD BROWN (D-Ohio) and JON TESTER (D-Mont.), both red-state incumbents, are (not) saying:
- “In a statement to POLITICO, Brown deferred to voters on Trump’s conviction. ‘I’m not a lawyer or a judge but I’ve said from the beginning that no one is above the law. Ultimately this is up to the legal system to sort out and for the American people to decide in November,’ he said.
- “A Tester spokesperson said the senator ‘respects the judicial process and believes everyone should be treated fairly before the courts, and voters will have the opportunity to make their voices heard at the ballot box in November.’”
Meanwhile, the broader debate among Democrats about how to handle the verdict continues to boil. Lauren Egan, Myah Ward and Elena Schneider delve into the divide between cautious approach adopted by the Biden campaign and top party organs and the incredulous reactions from activists and operatives who are afraid of seeing a political gift squandered. The NYT’s Reid Epstein and Nicholas Nehamas polled dozens of Democrats who want Trump’s convictions put center stage. The most strident quotes to that effect come from the left of the Democratic Party: BETO O’ROURKE, Sens. JON OSSOFF (Ga.) and ELIZABETH WARREN (Mass.), and Rep. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (Wash.), among others. But that sentiment is by no means exclusive to progressives. Former Alabama Sen. DOUG JONES, no one’s idea of a woke liberal, told our colleagues Dems need not hesitate. “I don’t think there’s anything to lose and a lot to gain, because I am convinced there’s a swath of people out there who are going to be very, very troubled by this at this point and haven’t really completely followed it, wondered about it — but now all of a sudden, this is a game changer.” Good Saturday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: The 340B drug pricing program is supposed to help vulnerable patients access medicines at qualifying hospitals and clinics. It’s meant to be a safety net for those who really need it. So why is the 340B program padding profits for large hospitals, PBMs and chain pharmacies? Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. Let’s fix 340B. | | | SUPPLANTING THE FLAG — Despite all of the uproar and outrage over the reports of Supreme Court Justice SAMUEL ALITO’s homes flying symbolic flags, the episode is most likely to play out in Washington’s preferred way: “an exercise in finger-pointing that suggests nothing will likely come of it,” Josh Gerstein writes. “The flag flap has, apparently, turned into a flop — just weeks after an initial report about the banners in The New York Times became the latest in a string of incidents that have further tarnished the image of the Supreme Court at a time of extreme polarization in American politics. That polarization helps explain some of the inaction. But not all. The Alito flags have presented the court, the Department of Justice and Congress with a complex set of circumstances that defy an easy solution for nearly all the parties involved.” Notable: Leading SCOTUS critic Sen. SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (D-R.I.) said “there’s probably not time to make [hearings] — or anything else of significance — happen on the flag issues before the court rules on Trump’s immunity bid or another key Jan. 6-related case.”
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | At the White House Biden has nothing on his public schedule. On the trail VP KAMALA HARRIS will travel to Seattle to participate in two campaign events.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 9 THINGS THAT STUCK WITH US
|  President Joe Biden delivered a strong case for a ceasefire in Gaza at the White House yesterday. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | 1. BIDEN PUSHES BIBI: In notably stark remarks at the White House yesterday, Biden laid out a case for a ceasefire in Gaza, arguing that Hamas no longer poses a major threat to Israel. “Biden offered that analysis while outlining a new three-phase cease-fire proposal Israel has offered Hamas, which would lead to the release of all hostages and a permanent end to fighting,” Matt Berg and Alex Ward write. What Biden said: “The people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their own security, because they’ve devastated Hamas forces over the past eight months,” Biden said. “At this point, Hamas is no longer capable of carrying out another Oct. 7.” He continued: “Indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of total victory will only bog down Israel in Gaza … and further Israel’s isolation in the world.” This morning in Israel, however, the tone did not shift. Israeli PM BENJAMIN NETANYAHU threw cold water on the prospects of a ceasefire, NYT’s Aaron Boxerman writes. “Within Israel, politicians, generals and the public remain deeply divided over the shape of a cease-fire agreement — particularly the decision to commit to an end to the war against Hamas.” What Netanyahu said: “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.” Meanwhile, the big four congressional leaders sent a letter yesterday inviting Netanyahu to visit the Hill, “capping off weeks of behind-the-scenes negotiations,” Jordain Carney writes. Though the letter does not outline a date for the appearance, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has said he expects it to take place before lawmakers depart for August recess. Read the letter 2. HOW IT HAPPENED: This week, Biden marked a major shift in U.S. policy on providing weapons cover for Ukraine, capping off a long-running blitz from Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY as the country faces mounting losses at the hands of Russia and a critical push to turn the tide. “For more than two years, Washington had told Ukraine that using weapons supplied by the U.S. to hit targets inside Russia was a no-go, and risked escalating the tensions between the two superpowers. Still, Zelenskyy ultimately succeeded this week, thanks to a coalition of lawmakers and senior officials in Washington and Kyiv who used the desperate situation in Kharkiv to get Biden to lift his restrictions,” Erin Banco, Lara Seligman and Nahal Toosi report in a must-read on the effort. Related read: “‘War has found them’: Biden’s Ukraine gamble sets a new course,” by Alex, Nahal and Jonathan Lemire 3. FOLLOW THE MONEY: “Henry Cuellar Aide’s Pay Shot Up After His Role in the Alleged Bribery Scheme, Records Show,” by NOTUS’ Casey Murray and Byron Tau: “COLIN STROTHER — a longtime Texas political consultant and a close confidant of the Texas Democrat — was paid more than $25,000 out of [Rep. HENRY] CUELLAR’s taxpayer-funded congressional expense budget in 2016 and 2017, spending records show. Three people familiar with the congressman’s House staff do not recall Strother performing substantial work for the office or having any job title during that time. … Strother pleaded guilty to helping funnel money from a Mexican bank to Cuellar through a complex financial arrangement designed to conceal the source of the funding.” 4. NOT TO BRAGG: Manhattan DA ALVIN BRAGG will go down in history as the first prosecutor to win a conviction of an American president. “It’s easily one of the most dazzling feats of jurisprudence the nation has seen — and the sort of accomplishment that could launch him on a political rocket ship to Washington,” our colleague Jeff Coltin writes. “Yet there were no Champagne baths in Bragg’s office after the verdict. When the jury’s decision was announced in Manhattan Criminal Court, Bragg stuck to the apolitical tone he has adopted throughout the prosecution. In public, he described the case as standard practice. In private, he acknowledged to his staff the enormity of what they’d taken on — and said it was time to get back to business as usual.” Related read: “How a Mysterious Tip Led to Trump Conviction,” by WSJ’s Rebecca Ballhaus and Joe Palazzolo: “When The Wall Street Journal uncovered an illicit payment to porn star STORMY DANIELS, the now-former president tried to brush it aside. It didn’t work.” 5. THE WAR FOR WESTCHESTER: “AIPAC ramps up attack on Jamaal Bowman with ads on antisemitism,” by Nick Wu and Ally Mutnick: “A top pro-Israel group is escalating its campaign against Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN, airing new ads that all but accuse the New York progressive of being antisemitic. It’s the most pointed attack yet by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee on Bowman’s record on Israel, and it’s delivered by the son of the famed Holocaust survivor and human rights activist ELIE WIESEL. … Asked whether the group was accusing Bowman of being antisemitic, UDP spokesperson PATRICK DORTON didn’t address the accusation directly but slammed Bowman’s ‘atrocious’ record on Israel.’” 6. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD: “Deepfake of U.S. Official Appears After Shift on Ukraine Attacks in Russia,” by NYT’s Michael Crowley, Valerie Hopkins and Edward Wong: “The fabricated video, which is drawn from actual footage, shows the State Department spokesman, MATTHEW MILLER, seeming to suggest that the Russian city of Belgorod, just 25 miles north of Ukraine’s border with Russia, was a legitimate target for such strikes. “The 49-second video clip, which has an authentic feel despite telltale clues of manipulation, illustrates the growing threat of disinformation and especially so-called deepfake videos powered by artificial intelligence. U.S. officials said they had no information about the origins of the video. But they are particularly concerned about how Russia might employ such techniques to manipulate opinion around the war in Ukraine or even American political discourse.” 7. BURNS NOTICE: “The U.S. Spy Chief on a Long-Shot Diplomatic Mission,” by WSJ’s Warren Strobel and Summer Said: “Multiple rounds of negotiations and roughly a dozen trips by [CIA Director WILLIAM BURNS] to the Middle East and Europe have yet to yield a lasting cease-fire, amid suspicions that neither Hamas’s military chief, YAHYA SINWAR, nor Netanyahu really wants one. For Burns, 68, it may be the toughest assignment of a four-decade career of high-stakes, back-channel diplomacy. He recently likened the effort to ‘pushing a very big rock up a very steep hill.’ Even the logistics of the negotiations are hellish.” 8. SWAMP READ: “Investors, worried they can’t beat lawmakers in stock market, copy them instead,” by WaPo’s Jacqueline Alemany: “Watchdog groups have long believed that some lawmakers use that information to make money in the stock market. Now a loose alliance of traders, analysts and advocates is trying to let Americans mimic the trades elected officials make, offering tongue-in-cheek financial products — including one named for former House speaker NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) and another that refers to Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Tex.) — that track purchases and sales after lawmakers disclose them. Collectively, these investment vehicles have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars.” 9. A RUDY AWAKENING: “A 9/11 Charity Provides a Financial Safety Net to a Giuliani Firm,” by NYT’s David Fahrenthold and Eileen Sullivan: “Because of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election, RUDOLPH W. GIULIANI has been indicted in two states and hit with a $148 million defamation judgment that forced him to seek bankruptcy protection. Through all of that, he has kept a reliable financial ally: a charity founded to honor the memory of a firefighter killed on Sept. 11, 2001. The problem, according to his creditors’ lawyers, is that he has withheld that detail throughout his first five months of bankruptcy proceedings.” Related read: “D.C. law licensing board recommends Rudy Giuliani be disbarred,” by WaPo’s Keith Alexander
| | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let’s fix 340B so it can help the patients that need it most. | | | CLICKER — “The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics,” edited by Matt Wuerker — 16 funnies
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| GREAT WEEKEND READS, curated by Ryan Lizza: — “Life on Ukraine’s front line: ‘Worse than hell’ as Russia advances,” by Reuters’ Mari Saito: “Ukraine's soldiers talk of exhaustion, faith, personal loss and a perilous shortage of munitions as Russian forces take new ground.” — “AMLO Ran Mexico as a Maverick. His Protege Is Playing It Safe,” by Bloomberg’s Maya Averbuch: “With voters set to elect their first woman president, no one’s sure how Claudia Sheinbaum will govern if she wins.” — “Is Jordan Bardella the new face of Europe?” by Clea Caulcutt in Saint-Denis, France: “Slick, disciplined and a hit with young voters, the president of France's National Rally is remaking the far-right party in his image.” — “You Think You Know How Misinformation Spreads? Welcome to the Hellhole of Programmatic Advertising,” by Wired’s Steven Brill: “The internet is a cesspool of misinformation, and the biggest blue-chip brands and their ad agencies are the ones funding it — by stuffing money into a Rube Goldberg machine no one really understands.” — “The Battle Over College Speech Will Outlive the Encampments,” by NYT’s Emily Bazelon and Charles Homans: “For the first time since the Vietnam War, university demonstrations have led to a rethinking of who sets the terms for language in academia.” — “The Unbearable Greatness Of Djokovic,” by The Atlantic’s Scott Stossel: “Novak Djokovic may be the greatest tennis player ever — and I can’t stand him.” — “‘Although she was dead, I felt as if she was my friend’: what it’s like to perform the last rites for an organ donor,” by Ronald Dworkin for The Guardian: “As an anaesthetist prepares a brain-dead patient for organ removal, he reflects on the need for compassion in a donor’s last hours.” — “Lifting the Veil on Near-Death Experiences,” by The Scientific American’s Rachel Nuwer: “What the neuroscience of near-death experiences tells us about human consciousness.” — “Piecing Together the Secrets of the Stasi,” by The New Yorker’s Burkhard Bilger: “After the Berlin Wall fell, agents of East Germany’s secret police frantically tore apart their records. Archivists have spent the past thirty years trying to restore them.” — “D-Day’s Forgotten Victims Speak Out,” by the N.Y. Review of Books’ Ed Vulliamy and Pascal Vannier: “Eighty years after D-Day, few know one of its darkest stories: the thousands of French civilians killed by a British and American carpet-bombing campaign of little military purpose.”
| | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Travis Kelce got his turn at the White House podium; Harrison Butker did not. Hallie Biden is getting remarried. Dinesh D’Souza had to apologize for his “2,000 Mules” film. Carolyn Cawley is departing from the Chamber of Commerce Foundation. Maureen Dowd’s sister Peggy is back on the Trump train. IN MEMORIAM — “Marian Robinson, mother of first lady Michelle Obama, dies at 86,” by WaPo’s Krissah Thompson: “The family announced the death in a statement but did not provide a cause. … Mrs. Robinson’s children often described her as a woman who spoke her mind and cherished her privacy. She sought to maintain those traits after agreeing to move with her daughter’s family into the White House. ‘They’re dragging me with them, and I’m not that comfortable,’ she told an interviewer when she left home, ‘but I’m doing exactly what you do. You do what has to be done.’” SPOTTED: Former Trump Labor Secretary Alex Acosta and wife Jan having dinner at The Bazaar at the Waldorf Astoria last night. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Tony Johnson will be president and CEO of The Truman National Security Project and Truman Center. He currently is special assistant and intelligence adviser to the deputy secretary of Defense. WEDDING — Adam Twardowski, global policy manager at Meta, and Chelsea Cooper, program analyst at FEMA, got married May 18 in Krakow, Poland, at the National Museum of Art. They met in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Natasha Sarin, a professor at Yale Law School and a Biden Treasury alum, and Tom Kaplan, domestic policy editor for the NYT, welcomed Kai Sarin Kaplan and Zayn Sarin Kaplan on May 23. Kai came in at 5 lbs, 7 oz, and Zayn came in three minutes later at 5 lbs, 4 oz. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Lucy McBath (D-Ga.) … Addisu Demissie … NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald … Alex Stoddard … FT’s Ed Luce … CBS’ Olivia Gazis … AP’s Bill Barrow … Richard Sant of Lockheed Martin … Karen Tramontano … POLITICO’s Rahul Sharma Rampa … Leslie Harris … Google’s Sasha Moss … USCCR’s Irena Vidulović … The Spectator’s Amber Athey … former Rep. Gregg Harper (R-Miss.) … Sean Kennedy of the National Restaurant Association … Advoc8’s Jeremy Rose … Matt Winkler … Melissa Hockstad … Jim Innocenzi … Danielle O’Byrne … Diane Zeleny … Christopher Minakowski … Percipient Strategies’ Tyler Ross … Terrance Green … DNC’s Jose Nunez … Heath Knakmuhs of the U.S. Chamber … Kay Coles James … Teamsters’ Kate Yeager … Dan Bartlett of Walmart … Mark Green of the Wilson Center … Axiom Strategies’ Blair Wilson … Elizabeth Rojas Levi of ERL Group (37) … Jessica Mrazek of Sen. Mike Crapo’s (R-Idaho) office (28) … DOE’s Constance Boozer ... Elizabeth Glidden THE SHOWS (Full Sunday show listings here): FOX “Fox News Sunday”: Speaker Mike Johnson … Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) … Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.). Legal panel: Jonathan Turley and Tom Dupree. Panel: Julia Manchester, Juan Williams, Roger Zakheim and Marc Thiessen. Sunday special: Remembering D-Day 80 years later. NBC “Meet the Press,” guest-moderated by Peter Alexander: Cyrus Vance Jr. … Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) … House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. Panel: Leigh Ann Caldwell, Lanhee Chen, Jen Psaki and Amy Walter. CBS “Face the Nation”: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum … Preet Bharara … Scott Anderson. CNN “Inside Politics Sunday”: Kevin McCarthy. Panel: Paula Reid, Susan Glasser, Tamara Keith and Hans Nichols. CNN “State of the Union,” guest-anchored by Kasie Hunt: RNC Co-Chair Lara Trump … Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Panel: Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D-Mass.), Kristen Soltis Anderson, Bakari Sellers and Scott Jennings. Fox News “Sunday Morning Futures”: Eric Trump … Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) … John Ratcliffe. Panel: Stephen Miller and Kari Lake. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from PhRMA: Hospitals that participate in the 340B program contract with more than 33,000 pharmacies to dispense the program’s drug prescriptions. More than 40% of these pharmacies have financial ties to one of the three largest PBMs – CVS Health, Express Scripts and OptumRx. 340B hospitals and the PBM-owned pharmacies they contract with are profiting off discounted medicines while uninsured patients are left paying full price for their medicines. Let’s fix 340B so it better helps patients. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
