A red ripple hits Sacramento

Presented by Phenomena Global: Inside the Golden State political arena

Nov 20, 2024 View in browser   By Dustin Gardiner and Tyler Katzenberger Presented by Phenomena Global California Republicans are on track to gain seats in the state Legislature, as Republicans nationally notched electoral wins in 2024. | Jae C. Hong/AP THE BUZZ: RED ALERT — For the first time in a decade, California Republicans are on track to gain seats in the Legislature — a stark shift after losing ground to moderate Democrats cycle after cycle. Republicans are expected to flip as many as three legislative districts when all the ballots are finally counted — one in the Senate and two in the Assembly. Democrats will still hold a supermajority in both chambers, and a few more votes won’t be enough to help the GOP flex its muscle on key legislation or the state budget. But the blue-to-red flips offer a jolt of momentum to GOP lawmakers used to living in the shadow of a Democratic trifecta in Sacramento. They could also embolden the Republican Party — and its donor base — to spend more heavily in future cycles to defend seats in the Inland Empire, Central Valley and Orange County. GOP legislative candidates made inroads despite the party being massively outspent by Democrats’ campaigns. Republican operatives said the wins speak to a broader shift in the 2024 election: Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump did better in California in large part due to stronger support among Latino and working-class voters — a microcosm of the national trend that fueled Trump’s return to power. “It’s really working-class people that are moving to the GOP, and Hispanics are a subset of that. They just don’t like the woke,” said Duane Dichiara, a Republican consultant who worked on several battleground Assembly races in Southern California. IMPERIAL COUNTY: One of the biggest blows to Democrats in the Assembly was the loss of an open Imperial County seat held by Assemblymember Eduardo Garcia, who opted not to run for reelection. The Latino-majority district, in the far southeastern corner of California along the Arizona and Mexico border, has long been a Democratic stronghold. Republican Jeff Gonzalez, a former Marine, defeated Democrat Jose Acuña Jr. by hammering Democrats over the state’s high cost of living and crime rates. INLAND EMPIRE: Republicans are also poised to pick up another open Assembly seat in a Latino-majority Riverside County district — one that Democrats were initially expected to win. Republican Leticia Castillo, a family therapist, leads Democrat Clarissa Cervantes by 496 votes. Cervantes’ campaign to succeed her sister, Sabrina Cervantes — who just won her state Senate bid — was derailed by news of two DUI arrests. Castillo also tapped into voters’ frustrations with crime and the cost of living. WHERE DEMS HELD GROUND: There were some bright spots for Democrats in the Assembly. Incumbents Pilar Schiavo and Esmeralda Soria won reelection in two battleground districts — Schiavo in Santa Clarita and Soria in the Central Valley. They also succeeded in holding a suburban San Diego County seat, where Darshana Patel won a tight race to succeed termed-out Assemblymember Brian Maienschein. That said, the party spent heavily and fell short in its efforts to defeat Republican Assemblymembers Greg Wallis (Inland Empire) and Laurie Davies (Orange County). Elizabeth Ashford, a political consultant to Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and the Democratic Caucus, said the caucus succeeded in its primary goal of defending incumbents in vulnerable districts. “When it’s all said and done, in a tough year for Democrats nationally, I think that we’re a success story,” Ashford told Playbook. ORANGE COUNTY: Democrats in the state Senate, meanwhile, are bracing for a major hit: Incumbent Josh Newman is expected to lose to Republican Steven Choi, a conservative former state assemblymember. The race hasn’t been called, but Choi leads by nearly 7,000 votes. Senate President Pro Tem Mike McGuire had said reelecting Newman was his caucus’ “number one priority” for the cycle. The caucus also spent heavily on targeting Republican Sen. Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh and an open seat in the Santa Clarita area — losing both races. GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen. WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced. A message from Phenomena Global: Fear not—the Cavalry is here, and it’s led by Artists. At Phenomena Global, we ignite movement-making culture by channeling capital into creativity, harnessing the power of entertainment to shape hearts and minds. We bring together cultural icons, media powerhouses and top financiers to design strategies that break norms—delivering not just positive returns, but inspiring purpose-driven impact. This is the rise of Cultural Capitalism for Good. Join the movement.   REPUBLICANLAND Jessica Millan Patterson, pictured above, is the current chair of California's Republican Party and will term out next year. | Getty Images FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: GOP CHAIR WATCH — California Republican Party Vice Chair Corrin Rankin is throwing her hat in the ring to become the state party’s next leader, she tells Playbook this morning. Rankin said she wants Golden State Republicans to “be a party of solutions" on border policy, education, criminal justice and water rights, among other issues. She will take over for current party chair Jessica Millan Patterson, who is term-limited, if elected at the state GOP convention this March. Here are the highlights from Rankin’s conversation with Playbook: What do you see as the party's biggest opportunity to grow its voter base?  We need to double down on our efforts to increase our Republican voter registration and make sure that we are messaging that we are here to serve. We want a better California. We want a safer California. We want a more economically viable California. When I'm here, it's going to be about the California Republican Party going on the offense. How closely do you think the California GOP should work with the Trump administration?  There's a tremendous opportunity for the California Republican Party to work with the Trump administration on the federal level. Some of the issues that California faces — our water shortage, wildfire issues, economic issues and border security — these are all things that impact us as Californians. We should lean into the Trump administration and work with them to help solve some of these issues. What would a successful 2026 election cycle look like for Republicans in California? Going on the offense, in terms of communication, to make sure we are sending a clear message to Californians about our solutions … I have a no-precinct-left-behind vision where we are working in every precinct, with precinct captains, recruiting, training candidates to run for office, and really start[ing] to invest in some of these deep-blue districts. How would you oversee the party's fundraising operations?  That's another area where I'm going to go on the offense — really double down on our small-dollar donations, create a program where we are really cultivating our mid-level donors. There's a huge opportunity there.   Want to know what's really happening with Congress's make-or-break spending fights? Get daily insider analysis of Hill negotiations, funding deadlines, and breaking developments—free in your inbox with Inside Congress. Subscribe now.     ELECTION RESULTS California voters rejected a ballot measure aiming to increase the state's minimum wage. | Richard Vogel/AP PROP 32 CALLED — It’s official: California voters rejected Proposition 32, which would have raised the state’s minimum wage to $18 per hour, our own Will McCarthy reports. Prop 32’s defeat makes California the first state to reject a minimum-wage increase at the ballot in almost 30 years, an outcome likely to reverberate across organized labor nationally. GRAY’S GAINING — Republican Rep. John Duarte is clinging to a 227-vote lead over Democrat Adam Gray in the race for a Central Valley House district after sizable ballot drops in Merced and Stanislaus County yesterday broke in Gray’s favor. Duarte was leading by more than 2,000 votes Tuesday morning. If Gray pulls off the comeback, it will cut into House Republicans’ thin majority in the chamber. STILL CLOSE IN OC — Democrat Derek Tran extended his lead over GOP Rep. Michelle Steel to 314 votes after Orange and Los Angeles counties each released small batches of results yesterday.   A message from Phenomena Global:   SAN FRANCISCO U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is headed to San Francisco this week for a global gathering on artificial intelligence. | Francis Chung/POLITICO THE (AI) CITY — San Francisco will play host today and tomorrow to the inaugural convening of the International Network of AI Safety Institutes, a global effort between the United States, European Union and about a half-dozen other countries to coordinate AI research and safety practices. U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is slated to attend. The network is already getting down to business: Federal officials this morning announced millions of dollars in global AI research funding commitments from multiple nations in the partnership and a first-ever multilingual joint testing exercise conducted on Meta’s open-source Llama AI model. But this meeting happens as the U.S. AI Safety Institute stands on shaky ground, as our colleagues Alfred Ng and Mohar Chatterjee report from Washington. Trump has vowed to repeal President Joe Biden’s executive order on AI that laid the groundwork for the U.S. AISI. Efforts in Congress to formalize the institute are not a sure shot. Pro subscribers can read more from Alfred and Mohar in today’s POLITICO Morning Tech newsletter.   Don't just read headlines—guide your organization's next move. POLITICO Pro's comprehensive Data Analysis tracks power shifts in Congress, ballot measures, and committee turnovers, giving you the deep context behind every policy decision. Learn more about what POLITICO Pro can do for you.     CLIMATE AND ENERGY Elon Musk is deep in Trump's orbit after donating hundreds of millions of dollars to his campaign. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images MUSK’S MOMENT: Elon Musk’s $200 million bet on Trump is already paying dividends. But even that may not be enough to offset an evolving car market — and Musk’s polarizing personality. Read more in yesterday’s California Climate. TOP TALKERS California Gov. Gavin Newsom hasn't disclosed a tax return in more than two years. | Eric Thayer/AP TAX WITHHOLDING — So much for Gov. Gavin Newsom’s promise to release his annual tax returns as governor. CalMatters reported Tuesday that Newsom has not disclosed a tax return since March 2022, before he won a second term as governor. A spokesperson for the governor’s team said they would provide reporters an opportunity to review the documents but did not share specifics. AMERICAN IDOL — Christine Pelosi, political organizer and daughter of Nancy Pelosi, was so excited about curing ballots for Gray in the Central Valley that she broke out into song about it on X yesterday — not Lady Gaga’s certified banger “The Cure,” but a slightly rewritten rendition of Willie Nelson’s classic “On the Road Again.” Sadly, it won’t be going platinum: She deleted her post hours later. AROUND THE STATE — San Francisco Supervisor Dean Preston, who lost his reelection contest, suggests the city should look to Zurich, Switzerland for solutions to deal with its opioid-overdose crisis. (KQED) — A Christian high school in Merced withdrew its girls volleyball team from a playoff game to protest the participation of a transgender teen. (Los Angeles Times) — Becca Prowda, director of protocol in the governor’s office who worked for Newsom when he was San Francisco mayor, is the spouse of SF Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie. People close to Prowda expect her to be a powerful force in Lurie’s incoming administration. (San Francisco Chronicle) A message from Phenomena Global: Fear not—the Cavalry is here, and it’s led by Artists. At Phenomena Global, we ignite movements that shape culture to define the future. We channel capital into creativity, empowering cultural icons, media powerhouses and celebrities to drive change that touches hearts, shifts perspectives and inspires action. Our approach is built on connection. We unite visionaries across industries—artists, financiers, and influential media leaders—to design strategies that break traditional norms. These are purpose-driven ventures designed to use the power of entertainment to transform society. With deep access to powerful networks across nations, we unlock pathways for sustainable growth that deliver positive returns while championing meaningful change. That’s Cultural Capitalism for Good—a new era where capital fuels culture, and culture drives global progress. At Phenomena Global, we’re crafting a legacy that transcends generations. One bold investment, one cultural milestone, and infinite opportunities. Join the movement: www.phenomenaglobal.com/   PLAYBOOKERS PEOPLE MOVES — Haydee Dominguez has been promoted from legislative director to chief of staff in Assemblymember Mia Bonta’s office. — Melissa Breach, the former COO for California YIMBY and executive director of the League of Women Voters, is now CEO of the newly launched public policy nonprofit Prosperity California. — Shirley Halperin has been named co-editor-in-chief at the Hollywood Reporter. She was previously editor-in-chief of Los Angeles Magazine. — Priya Anand has left journalism and is now advising executives and startups on comms and messaging. She spent nearly a dozen years covering big tech and startups for publications including Bloomberg. BIRTHDAYS — Robert Edmonson of Rep. Robert Garcia’s (D-Calif.) office … Google’s Courtney Corbisiero … The Media Company’s Emily Matthews … BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Tuesday): Calvin Klein ... Charlie Kaufman ... Richard Zare ... Bob Hertzberg WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Dustin Gardiner @dustingardiner Tyler Katzenberger @TylerKatzen   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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