DAVID’S DOMINANCE: Cue up the “Wicked” soundtrack, because yet again, David Valadao is defying gravity. (Shoutout to the musical theater nerds among us.) The five-term GOP congressmember sealed reelection to his Central Valley district on Tuesday night, defeating his challenger, Rudy Salas, despite millions of dollars being spent against him in a district where Democrats have a double-digit registration advantage. Valadao has managed to withstand being a top target for multiple cycles, only faltering once in the blue wave of 2018 to Democrat TJ Cox before winning the seat back two years later. His winning record — in a heavily Latino district that has sided decisively with Democratic presidential candidates — is, to quote one former Democratic pollster, “ridiculous.” The Democrats’ commanding registration edge may have been a bit of a mirage, however. “A D+10 district in the Central Valley is not the same as a D+10 district in Los Angeles,” said Rob Pyers, research director for California Target Book, the nonpartisan election almanac. “You have a bunch of rural Latinos who tend to be a bit more culturally conservative, and registration tends to be more of a lagging indicator. The Central Valley has been trending away from Democrats for several cycles now; this just seems to be further emphasizing that.” Moreover, with Latinos overall drifting to the right in recent elections, Democrats can no longer bank on “demographics as destiny” to deliver them diverse districts. And Valadao has proven to be a conspicuously tough incumbent to oust, precisely because he’s built a brand on being inconspicuous. He is a notably low-key elected official, largely staying away from the national press. (His team did not respond to requests for comment, passing up the chance to spike the football.) “He's not extreme. He's focused on getting the work done,” said GOP strategist Rob Stutzman . “He's not there to build a profile, to get clicks, to become Fox News famous.” Instead, he’s a well-established local presence, having served the region in both the state Legislature and Congress. When this Playbook writer visited his district in 2022, it was striking how many residents were on a first-name basis with him. “He continues to be the ‘Mr. Smith goes to Washington’ kind of politician — the more people who spend time with him and recognize how sincere of a human being he is, the better it is for him,” said Tal Eslick, an independent political consultant from the Valley who used to work for Valadao. “There's plenty of politicians that the best thing they can do is never actually interface with a voter directly. That's not Dave.” Of course, it has hardly been smooth sailing for Valadao, who has consistently had to carve a more moderate path on immigration in his agricultural district than his party’s more hardline tilt. And his decision to vote for Donald Trump’s impeachment after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol — one of only 10 House Republicans to do so — enraged the MAGA base of the party, prompting challenges from his right. It took intervention from his close ally, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, to ensure Trump didn’t endorse one of his opponents, which could have been a knockout blow. Next cycle could pose more challenges, particularly with Trump back in office. Democrats’ rallying cry to preserve Obamacare in 2018 was especially resonant in this district, one of the poorest battleground seats; actions by the Trump administration could very well put health care front and center in two years. Or if Trump’s threatened deportation program is implemented, it could again put Valadao in a bind over immigration. That’s why it’s unlikely Democrats would give up entirely on this seat. “A couple of cycles can make a world of difference,” Pyers said. “So they've had a setback this year. I don't think it's fatal.” IT’S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lholden@politico.com.
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