| | | | |  | | By Brakkton Booker and Jesse Naranjo | What up, Recast fam! A programming note: This is our final edition of the year. Enjoy the holidays, and we’ll be back in your inboxes on Jan. 7, 2025. Now for today’s agenda:
- Six takeaways on race in America from this past election cycle
- Joe Biden commutes the sentences of nearly every prisoner on death row
- And we honor the passing of a baseball great, Rickey Henderson
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Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris at the debate on Sept. 10, 2024. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | Race and identity politics played outsize roles in the 2024 presidential election cycle, even as voters routinely told pollsters the most pressing issues were the economy, immigration and the fate of democracy. When Kamala Harris ascended to the top of the ticket, many Democrats hoped her history-making candidacy would rally the base, including the Muslim and Arab voters who cast “uncommitted” ballots in the primary, dissatisfied with the Biden administration’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict. And even though the trailblazer herself didn’t want to lean too much into her Black and Indian ancestry, her team was depending on recreating the multiracial coalition Harris and President Joe Biden secured back in 2020. But the fissures soon became evident, with poll after poll indicating Democratic support among Black and Latino voters was eroding, particularly among the younger generation.
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In the end, Donald Trump won all seven battleground states and increased his vote share among the very coalition Harris needed to show up in near-record numbers.
Here are six things we learned about race and identity politics this election cycle.
1. TRUMP WON THE AUTHENTICITY GAME
As much as Democrats tried painting Trump as out of touch and unfit to hold the presidency again, those tactics simply didn’t stick. Obviously. Trump, even with his 34 felony convictions, bluster and misogyny — whether it be the vulgarities captured on the “Access Hollywood” tape or his final campaign speech in Grand Rapids, Michigan, where he referred to former Speaker Nancy Pelosi as a “Crazy B” — was not actually a liability. Harris, on the other hand, had trouble connecting with enough voters outside the Democratic base, despite her achievements in politics. The public viewed her less favorably on her ability to handle top issues like the economy and immigration. And she never quite overcame the distrust about her shifting policy positions on fracking and decriminalizing border crossings. Lauren Harper Pope, co-founder of WelcomePAC, which supports center-left candidates, told the Recast:
|  | But Harper Pope hopes the next two years will give Dems plenty of time to “recenter and recalibrate” the party’s future.
2. IT PAYS TO BE ANTI-WOKE
Four years ago, the Biden-Harris ticket promised to lead a federal government that advanced equity and racial justice, spurred by national protests after the police murder of George Floyd and a pandemic that disproportionately killed Black and brown people.
|  A protester holds a sign with an image of George Floyd during a June 2020 demonstration in Los Angeles. | Mario Tama/Getty Images | In the years since, Republicans launched several successful counter attacks. They labeled Democrats as the party of “woke,” railed against what history was being taught in public schools and organized a backlash against transgender athletes competing in women’s and girls' sports. Trump even mocked Harris’ biracial identity, saying she only “recently turned Black” and fueling attacks about her being a “DEI hire.” Harris refused to engage on the identity question, and Democrats couldn't effectively defend against the culture war threatening the party on multiple fronts. Meanwhile, Trump's return has opened the door to more anti-woke warriors like Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy and Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), the incoming chair of the Senate Banking Committee, who have all scored prominent posts in a new GOP-led Washington.
3. THE “SAVING DEMOCRACY” ARGUMENT FALLS FLAT
This vague campaign platform was a top Democratic priority this cycle. The party cast Trump as an existential threat ... and largely ignored voters’ dissatisfaction with a “broken” government — one that was being controlled by Democrats in the Senate and the White House. “[The democracy argument] firmly puts you in a position where you're protecting institutions,” said Tory Gavito, president and co-founder of Way to Win, a left-leaning group that tracks sentiments of Democratic voters. “Asking voters of color to protect a set of systems that don't always work for them … just isn't working anymore.” Her organization’s exit poll of the seven battleground states found that Black, Latino and Asian American and Pacific Islander voters who broke for Trump were far more motivated by the economy than saving democracy. White Trump voters were energized more by immigration.
4. THE OBAMA MYSTIQUE IS GONE
Barack Obama has been the Democrats’ closer-in-chief since he left office. That looks to have finally run its course. “I think the Democratic Party's reliance on the Obama playbook reflects a failure to adapt to a very different political and social landscape,” Joe Paul of Black Men Vote told The Recast. He said the party’s messaging has not evolved, particularly to Black voters, since Obama first ran for president 16 years ago.
|  Former President Barack Obama speaks during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 20. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Even as some tried desperately to draw comparisons between the rabid excitement of Obama’s historic 2008 and 2012 runs and Harris’ candidacy this year, the votes didn’t materialize. Making matters worse, Obama drew rebukes from party faithful just when the Harris campaign was seeking to deploy him. His comment that Black men were finding “reasons and excuses” to avoid supporting Harris left many feeling unfairly chastised — and missed the larger point that those Black men had been gradually losing trust in the Democratic party at large.
5. SOUTH ASIANS STILL GOT THEIR FLOWERS
Sure, Harris didn’t make it to the Oval Office. But we’re still seeing the rise of South Asians in politics ... on the other side of the aisle. Trump, for his second term, has chosen Kash Patel to lead the FBI, Harmeet Dhillon to lead the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, and Ramaswamy to co-lead the so-called Department of Government Efficiency. Just don’t expect Republicans — who campaigned on ending DEI programs — to celebrate this development.
|  Vivek Ramaswamy and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) head into a meeting on Capitol Hill. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | “These people don't lead with their identity and that's so in line with the Republican Party that I kind of came up in and gravitated to,” Rina Shah, a GOP strategist, said of Trump’s picks. Which leads us to …
6. “IDENTITY POLITICS” IS A HARD SELL
This election, Trump doubled his standing with Black men compared with his 2020 numbers and secured nearly half of Latino men by leaning into rising inflation, the cost of living and the border. “In many ways, it's the Obama coalition in reverse,” said Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist. “Increasingly non-white voters are motivated more by economic and class issues than by race. The Obama coalition was college educated whites and non-white people who were motivated more by race and ethnicity than by class.” Miami’s Republican mayor, Francis Suarez, told The Recast last month that part of Trump’s appeal to Latinos was that he didn't treat them differently from any other American ethnic group.
|  Donald Trump secured nearly half of Latino men in the 2024 election. | Jeff Swensen/Getty Images | Simultaneously, at the vice president’s camp, there was discord over the Latino voter strategy, one Harris campaign operative granted anonymity to speak told The Recast. The operative said Latino voices inside the campaign were largely ignored. In addition to not having a concerted message for Latino men, the campaign lacked nuance in how it messaged to Hispanic voters overall. The team failed to differentiate its campaign tactics for families who have been in America for generations from those who immigrated more recently. Going forward, instead of focusing on identity politics, some Democrats said the party should focus on countering Trump's agenda if they want any chance at winning back at least one chamber of Congress in 2026. "[What] Democrats have to do … is really try to put Donald Trump in a position where he unravels," according to Ashley Etienne, a Democratic strategist who previously worked for Pelosi during the 2018 midterm elections, when the party successfully took back control of the House. She added that voters of color "are feeling betrayed and ... blindsided by what happened in November, and those people need some level of encouragement to get back in the fight.”
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President Joe Biden will will commute the sentences of 37 of the 40 men condemned to death. | Jose Luis Magana/AP | ALL EYES ON DEATH ROW — Biden is commuting the sentences of nearly every prisoner on the federal government’s death row, a sweeping decision that will block Trump’s ability to rapidly resume executions, our Adam Cancryn reports. And more:
| | | TODAY’S CULTURE RECS STOLEN TOO SOON: Baseball’s all-time base stealer, Rickey Henderson, died over the weekend. Read more here about the legend’s impact on the game. HE DOES IT AGAIN: Lin-Manuel Miranda breaks down the “Mufasa” film’s soundtrack, which includes the catchy new villain anthem, “Bye Bye.” DON'T MISS: The Christmas Day halftime performance by Beyoncé available live on Netflix — but only for a few hours. Edited by Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz | | | | POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
