DECK THE MALLS — Four sleeps until the GST/HST holiday — unless you’re a shopkeeper pulling an all-nighter to bring the Liberal government’s tax measure to life. Saturday marks the start of a two-month tax break on certain groceries, prepared food, baked goods, children’s clothing, diapers and more. The government’s shopping list is here. — Ringing up the new year: SARAH ELDER is the owner of Madame Premier, a Calgary boutique for political nerds and the people who love them. She estimates she has more than 1,000 items for sale in her system, including kids puzzles, snappy and snarky tote bags, plus Kamala 24 T-shirts (now half price). Elder will spend this week reviewing her inventory to identify any products that are tax exempt. She credits Shopify with simplifying the process. It’s still a lot, she told us, “because it's those things, plus an American exchange rate, plus an incoming Trump administration and a possible tariff war. There's an interest rate decision coming this week … the word recession is being mentioned again.” — Survey says: The Angus-Reid Institute just released a poll that suggests 45 percent of Canadians believe the holiday will help at least a little. Meanwhile, a new Nanos survey for the Globe found that Canadians are more likely to think the proposed GST tax breaks are “a bad idea rather than a good idea,” BILL CURRY reports. DAN KELLY of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business told Playbook it’s all "a hot mess." Economists also have questions. The finance minister's office says the GST tax break, "is a recognition that, while inflation is back within target and interest rates are coming down, not everyone is feeling that progress yet." KATHERINE CUPLINSKAS told Playbook in an emailed statement: "We can’t set prices at the checkout, but we can give Canadians a break on essentials, including groceries, and on holiday gifts — to help them afford the things they need and save for the things they want. And that is exactly what we’re doing." While store owners obsess over readying their points of sale, economists, pundits and political players have been debating the merits of the measure. — No sugar coating: Former Bank of Canada Governor DAVID DODGE has advised the Senate finance committee the tax holiday is poor economic policy in both the short and long run. “Senators, it is candy today in exchange for future pain,” said Dodge, who made headlines with that line during an outing on CTV News. The long-term implications are worse, added Dodge, now a senior adviser at Bennett Jones: “Our collective need today is to raise investment, not consumption.” Asked how he would go about giving consumers “a break,” Dodge repeated that the policy is wrong for this moment. “If, indeed, you really wanted to give that break, then issue a check as an increase in the GST rebate in January, or whenever the next quarterly check is,” he said. For the record, the Liberals also want to send out checks. It’s complicated. — Holiday hangover: JASON STANTON of the Parliamentary Budget Office shared fresh analysis Monday that suggests the two-month GST/HST tax break will reduce federal revenues by C$1.5 billion in 2024-25 — and almost double that if provinces that collect the Harmonized Sales Tax do not waive their compensation. — In case you missed it: Freeland also took questions in the Senate last week — an appearance where “sidestepping reached comedic levels,” the Globe’s SHANNON PROUDFOOT noted in a cutting review. — Table stakes: MAXIMILIEN ROY of Restaurants Canada tells Playbook the break should bring in about C$1.5 billion in sales across the industry nationwide. Roy said his association pre-emptively lined up the Canada Revenue Agency to provide a webinar for any members still puzzling the details. “Now we're getting to the nitty gritty part of it … we're having a good collaboration,” he said. — The shop around the corner: The CFIB boasts 97,000 members, many of whom are opposed to the tax holiday. “Everyone I've talked to has said, ‘Look, I'm not opposed to my customers saving a bit of money here on this purchase,” Kelly explains. “But the ham-fisted way that this has been executed, especially given the lack of notice and lack of clarity, it has been a disaster.” — The kicker: Add these headaches to the Canada Post strike entering its fourth week, he says. | 
