A who’s who of Florida’s special elections

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Dec 09, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Madison Fernandez

TOP LINE

The fields are set in two special House elections taking place next year in the Sunshine State.

President-elect Donald Trump’s decision to name sitting members of Congress to his administration has led to a spate of special elections in the coming months. FL-01 is currently vacant, after former GOP Rep. Matt Gaetz resigned to become Trump’s attorney general, but later dropped his bid. Gaetz has since been teasing what’s next, including a possible 2026 gubernatorial run. FL-06 will soon be open, as Republican Rep. Mike Waltz becomes national security adviser.

Jimmy Patronis

Florida's chief financial officer Jimmy Patronis earned President-elect Donald Trump's endorsement in FL-01, which has drawn a large crowd. | Steve Cannon/AP Photo

Trump already put his thumb on the scale with endorsements in these two red-leaning districts, causing a handful of candidates to end their campaigns before the filing deadlines, which were on Friday and Saturday. But Trump’s endorsements didn’t completely clear the field.

Because both districts favor Republicans, most of the action will be taking place ahead of the Jan. 28 GOP primaries. The special general elections are set to take place on April 1.

Sixteen candidates are running to replace Gaetz in FL-01. Trump’s bet is on state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, who had been mulling a 2026 gubernatorial run, though he’ll have to get past nine other Republicans first. That busy GOP primary includes some familiar names, like Aaron Dimmock, who had the backing of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy as he primaried Gaetz — an architect of McCarthy’s ouster from the speakership — earlier this year. Gaetz easily defeated him in the primary. And like last time, it’s possible Dimmock won’t be able to shake those McCarthy associations during this campaign.

State Rep. Joel Rudman, a doctor who slammed those who dropped out after Trump endorsed Patronis for having “abandoned” voters, is also in the mix.

Other candidates include Gene Valentino, a former county commissioner; Jeff Peacock, a teacher who was a campaign adviser for former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.) during his 2022 gubernatorial bid; Kevin Gaffney, a teacher who worked in various federal agencies; Greg Merk, a veteran who previously ran for this seat and for the state House; John Mills, another veteran who also ran for this seat in the past and for the state Senate; Michael Dylan Thompson, an attorney who is emphasizing being Gen Z; and Jeff Macey.

Gay Valimont, who lost the general election this year by more than 30 points, is the only Democrat running.

It’s less crowded in the FL-06 special election, where nine candidates qualified. Republican Randy Fine, who was just elected to the state Senate and previously served in the state House, has Trump’s backing — and is the favorite. But he does face two nominal challenges from Aaron Baker and Ehsan Joarder, the latter of whom unsuccessfully ran for FL-14 earlier this year.

Democrats also have a contested primary here, with Purvi Bangdiwala, Ges Selmont and Josh Weil running. Selmont had a previously unsuccessful run for FL-04 in 2018, and Weil was a failed Senate candidate in 2022.

There will be a familiar name on the April ballot: Randall Terry, the Constitution Party’s 2024 presidential candidate who ran graphic anti-abortion ads. He’s running with no party affiliation. (Stephen Broden, Terry’s running mate, is running with no party affiliation in the FL-01 special.) Libertarian candidate Andrew Parrott will also be on the April ballot for FL-06.

There’s another big question mark still hanging over Florida politics: Who will replace Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, who is poised to become secretary of state? RNC co-chair Lara Trump, who on Sunday announced that she will be stepping down from the role, has emerged as a favorite among some in the president’s orbit. But Gov. Ron DeSantis gets to make the pick, and he has said he won’t do so until the beginning of January.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

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CAMPAIGN INTEL

2026 WATCH — Outgoing Democratic North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told WSOC-TV’s Joe Bruno that running for Senate in 2026 is “on the table,” though he hasn’t decided yet. Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is up for reelection then.

… Tarrant County Republican Party Chair Bo French said he’s “not ruling anything out” when it comes to primarying Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) in 2026, citing Cornyn’s “refusal to support all of Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees.” French said that “people from all over Texas” have been asking him to challenge the incumbent.

… Former Fall River, Massachusetts, Mayor William Flanagan, who switched his affiliation from Democratic to Republican after saying he could “no longer identify with” the Democratic Party, is considering a challenge to Democratic Rep. Jake Auchincloss in the blue-leaning MA-04, per WPRI’s Raymond Baccari.

BALLOT BATTLE — Future New Jersey “primary election ballots will be arranged in office block style,” which is how ballots across the country look like, “according to a draft of legislation prepared at the request of the Assembly Select Committee on Ballot Design,” The New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein writes. 

Earlier this year, Democratic Sen.-elect Andy Kim sued to get rid of the county line system — the state’s decades-old ballot design that gives party-backed candidates an advantage by placing them in a more favorable position on the ballot.

But while the county line system is not long for this world, many things are still undecided. “Facing resistance from lawmakers fearful of progressive activists, the Assembly Select Committee on Ballot Design is considering dropping a proposal to place brackets around the names of running mates seeking the same office in primary elections,” Wildstein later reported. “Legislators are also moving away from a section in the proposed legislation that would give candidates seeking reelection the option of identifying themselves as incumbents on the ballot.”

The state Assembly is poised to vote on the bill later this month.

FOR YOUR CALENDAR — “Several top gubernatorial candidates and Jewish leaders in New Jersey are calling on the state to reschedule next year’s June 3 primary election — which overlaps with the Jewish holiday of Shavuot, making it impossible for observant Jews to vote on that date,” Jewish Insider’s Matthew Kassel reports. A spokesperson for Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy told JI that the governor is “open to working with the legislature to shift the date.”

PULL UP A CHAIR — Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) will serve another term as chair of the DCCC after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries reappointed her.

… Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly will continue to serve as chair of the Democratic Governors Association in 2025 after taking over from Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz earlier this year as he ran for vice president. Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear was selected to be vice chair next year and chair-elect in 2026.

COURT WATCHIN’ — “The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a federal lawsuit on Friday seeking to invalidate Republicans’ challenge of over 60,000 ballots cast in the state Supreme Court election,” The News and Observer’s Kyle Ingram writes. Democratic state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs narrowly beat Republican Appeals Court Judge Jefferson Griffin, a win that was reaffirmed by a recount last week. The race is now undergoing a second recount, which is expected to be completed by Tuesday, though “Griffin’s main recourse for challenging the results is the election protests he has filed, which aim to disqualify over 60,000 votes.”

… Another tight state Supreme Court race was decided Friday in Mississippi, when Republican state Sen. Jenifer Branning defeated incumbent state Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens in a runoff election. “Judicial races in Mississippi are technically nonpartisan,” Mississippi Today’s Taylor Vance writes. “The state Republican Party worked hard to oust Kitchens, one of the dwindling number of centrist jurists on the high court, and consolidate its infrastructure behind Branning.”

IN THE STATES — “House Speaker Dade Phelan on Friday announced he is dropping his bid for another term leading the lower chamber, ending a bruising, monthslong intraparty push to remove him from power,” The Texas Tribune’s Jasper Scherer, James Barragán and Renzo Downey write. “Phelan narrowly survived a brutal primary challenge in May, but 15 other House Republicans lost their seats, many of them Phelan supporters who were ousted by challengers running on explicit pledges to oppose the Beaumont Republican’s speakership. … With Phelan out of the picture, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and the rest of the GOP’s most conservative faction could have a willing ally in driving a hardline agenda through the Legislature.” Patrick is planning to run for reelection in 2026.

Over the weekend, state Rep. David Cook was named the House GOP Caucus’ endorsed candidate for speaker, though state Rep. Dustin Burrows, who is backed by Phelan, claimed “that he had the necessary votes to become the next speaker,” per the Tribune.

IN THE CITY — Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who is up for reelection next year amid a score of legal troubles, “left open the possibility of switching to the Republican Party in a pair of Friday morning interviews,” POLITICO’s Joe Anuta writes. “Adams was a member of the GOP from 1995 through 2002, and was asked during an appearance on NY1 whether he would return to the party. He did not rule out the possibility.”

THE CASH DASH

THREE’S COMPANY — Super PACs helped Democrats this cycle by boosting third-party candidates “significantly more this year than in other recent elections,” POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick and Jessica Piper report. “Longtime strategists from both parties could not recall a previous cycle that saw so much actual outside spending in support of so many down-ballot third-party candidates. More third-party House and Senate candidates got backing from outside groups seemingly linked to a major party this year compared to any of the previous three election cycles, a POLITICO analysis of spending records with the Federal Election Commission found.”

STAFFING UP

— Kate Ramstad, one of Rhode Island’s “most prominent fundraising consultants,” is working with former CVS Health executive Helena Foulkes “to help raise money for her all-but-declared campaign to unseat [Democratic Gov.] Dan McKee,” WPRI’s Ted Nesi reports. “Ramstad has worked for a number of prominent Democrats, including [former Gov.] Gina Raimondo. (And her decision to sign on with Foulkes casts further doubt on the idea Raimondo might try to win back her old job.)” The Public’s Radio’s Ian Donnis reported last month that Raimondo is considering another bid for her old job in 2026.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Look, I haven’t driven in eight years, so I got to get ready to know how to drive my car again.” — Cooper on what’s next after his gubernatorial term is up.

 

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