CALENDAR WATCH — The timing of annual winter Cabinet retreats and occasional January shuffles have dotted the monthly calendar since Trudeau took office.
They’ve happened to varying degrees in the Trudeau years. Remember when JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD was moved from justice to veterans affairs? That was Jan. 14, 2019. FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE took over his current portfolio on Jan. 12, 2021. → Annual routines: Shuffles ordinarily drop in the second week of the month. Trudeau has never hosted a Cabinet retreat or shuffled his front bench earlier than Jan. 8 — and no later than Jan. 26. He rarely schedules retreats or shuffles over January weekends. → No-go zones: If the Liberals hope the musical chairs own a news cycle, they'll avoid Jan. 20, when Trump’s inauguration will preoccupy just about everybody. Statistics Canada drops inflation data Jan. 21, and TIFF MACKLEM is due for an interest rate announcement on Jan. 29. — What's left: Jan. 9-10, Jan. 13-17 and Jan. 22-24 — if, that is, the Prime Minister's Office doesn't buck any of its annual routines. → Don't forget Davos: The World Economic Forum meets Jan. 20-24 in the Swiss resort town known to attract, say, Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND. — Challenges ahead: “You need a Cabinet that is able to deal with our largest trading partner and you have to have a Cabinet that is putting forward the best case for re-election,” said GREG MACEACHERN, principal and founder of KAN Strategies. A January refresh would give ministers a couple weeks with their files before Parliament returns, and before Trump gets back to the White House. “You’re also not facing political media coverage driven by question period — or as JOHN TURNER calls it, bullshit theatre,” said MacEachern. STUART BARNABLE, vice president at Hill+Knowlton Strategies, says the government is facing its hardest shuffle since 2015. Trudeau will face an election at some point in 2025. In the meantime, his Cabinet will deal with constant rhetoric from Trump and the threat of tariffs, Barnable said. Not to mention unhappy caucus members, who could become even unhappier if they’re passed by for Cabinet. “Both externally and now internally, the Trudeau government has a lot to face and the front benches are going to be the front line in those battles, be it internally or external,” Barnable said. CABINET WATCH — The PM likes to have gender parity in his Cabinet while keeping it regionally balanced. Among the names floating around regionally: B.C.: There’s speculation TALEEB NOORMOHAMED could replace Qualtrough. Alberta: There are just two Liberal MPs in a province that often accuses Ottawa of ignoring its interests. Boissonnault was recently sacked from Cabinet. And GEORGE CHAHAL was among the lawmakers to sign a statement calling on the PM to resign. So … who knows? Manitoba: TERRY DUGUID or BEN CARR could replace Vandal. Ontario: CHARLES SOUSA, former Ontario finance minister, or RYAN TURNBULL, another parl sec to the finance minister, have been named as replacements for Tassi. Quebec: ANNA GAINEY, former Liberal Party president and a close friend of the PM’s, or RACHEL BENDAYAN, parliamentary secretary to the finance minister, could take the place of Bibeau. Indigenous representation: Vandal is the only Indigenous member of Cabinet. His exit could place Nova Scotia MP JAIME BATTISTE — parliamentary secretary to the Crown-Indigenous relations minister — in the running. Another option is for Vandal to stay in Cabinet, though that would go against the Liberals’ usual practice of replacing members who are not seeking reelection. THE TOP CHALLENGE — Those who spoke to Playbook agree: A shuffle is not likely to sway public opinion. That’s because the Cabinet has a PM problem. “The most important thing in terms of the political fate of the government will be how Canadians feel about the PM and about the government as a whole,” said ALEX COHEN, former director of communications to several Liberal ministers. “In that regard, it’s a little more limited what a shuffle could do.” | 
