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| By Tyler Katzenberger and Dustin Gardiner |
Presented by Phenomena Global |
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Rep.-elect Adam Gray (D-Calif.) | Rich Pedroncelli/AP |
THE BUZZ: BUCKING THE TREND — Democrats threw the kitchen sink at California House races this cycle. It (mostly) paid off. As our colleague Melanie Mason reports with Mia McCarthy and Emily Ngo this morning, Democrats won four of California’s six most competitive congressional races this cycle and came achingly close to a House majority as the state and nation lurched rightward. Three of those wins were flips that ousted GOP incumbents. We’re still waiting for the number-crunching election wonks to make sense of the data. But in a generally gloomy outcome for Democrats, California's congressional races were a rare bright spot thanks to a three-ingredient recipe: better candidates, more attention and mountains of dough from party allies. “We had a better formula to win these races and defy the political headwinds blowing the GOP’s way,” said Dan Gottlieb, spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Now these dysfunctional Republicans will have to manage through the smallest House majority in nearly a century.”
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| Cash dash: Democratic candidates, scarred from being outgunned by cash-flush Republicans in 2022, armed themselves to the teeth with campaign funds this time around. “It’s always going to be expensive. And we said, okay, we need to start fundraising for this and planning for this today,” said CJ Warnke, spokesperson for the House Majority PAC. Major super PACs showered attention on candidates early and often as they posted seven-figure fundraising hauls, placing Democrats in prime position to buy up expensive TV airtime. House Majority spent $50 million in California — almost five times more than it did two years prior. Meanwhile, most California Republicans, like their national counterparts, saw sluggish fundraising. And they were additionally stung by the ouster of former Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who was a powerful home state patron as party leader. More attention: On top of resources from national fundraising powerhouses, Democrats got more help this cycle from their allies in labor. Lorena Gonzalez, who leads the California Labor Federation, said her group zeroed in on the state’s congressional races in a way they hadn’t since before the pandemic and avoided splitting resources by sidestepping two major ballot initiative clashes with business groups. “When we are focused and we don't end up in 10 different places, we do much better,” Gonzalez said. Candidate quality: Democrats felt their diverse roster of A-list business moguls, star lawyers and staunch moderates gave them a leg up over vulnerable Republican incumbents. In Orange County, Derek Tran, a first-time candidate and Vietnamese American, was well-positioned to shrink GOP Rep. Michelle Steel’s margins in Little Saigon. And in neighboring Los Angeles County, former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides leveraged his personal wealth and business background to defeat GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in a district with a heavy aerospace presence. Democratic Rep. Pete Aguilar touted the party’s personnel picks Wednesday alongside Adam Gray, who beamed into the Democrats’ caucus meeting via FaceTime less than 24 hours after winning his Central Valley race by just 127 votes. “Ultimately, these candidates and their stories is what broke through,” Aguilar told reporters. GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and tkatzenberger@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @TylerKatzen.
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| A message from Phenomena Global: Fear not—the Cavalry is here, and it’s led by Artists. At Phenomena Global, we ignite movement-making culture by channeling capital into creativity, harnessing the power of entertainment to shape hearts and minds. We bring together cultural icons, media powerhouses and top financiers to design strategies that break norms—delivering not just positive returns, but inspiring purpose-driven impact. This is the rise of Cultural Capitalism for Good. Join the movement. |
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WHERE’S GAVIN? In San Diego for an announcement on border security. More on that next…
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 | NEWSOMLAND | |
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California Gov. Gavin Newsom is headed to San Diego tomorrow for an announcement on border policy. | Derrick Tuskan/AP |
BORDER STOP: Newsom will make an announcement on transnational commerce and border security in San Diego County around noon tomorrow. The event comes after voters sent a strong message in November that they trusted Republicans more than Democrats on immigration issues. The SoCal stop offers a chance for Newsom to message on the matter before it becomes a central issue in the first few weeks of the Trump administration. Newsom could also position himself as a counterweight to the president-elect when it comes to relations with Mexico. The governor attended Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s inauguration in September.
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| REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss. |
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SAILING UPSTREAM — Gray’s razor-thin win over GOP Rep. John Duarte defied political headwinds, a Playbook data analysis of election results shows. The Merced native and former state lawmaker (with a moderate streak) shifted the House margin one point in Democrats’ favor in his rematch with Duarte. Every county in his competitive Central Valley district broke for President-elect Donald Trump, with most swinging 12 or more points in his direction since the 2020 election. Fresno, Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties all flipped blue for the first time since 2004 — way back when George W. Bush was president and Facebook had just arrived in California.
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| AND THE WINNERS ARE... | |
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Playbook co-author Dustin Gardiner places first at the San Francisco Press Club awards on Dec. 4, 2024. | Julia Marsh for POLITICO |
RACK 'EM UP — POLITICO took home four prizes at the San Francisco Press Club's 47th Annual Journalism Awards Gala last night. Your Playbook co-author Dustin Gardiner won first place for his coverage of Mayor London Breed's reelection campaign (you read it here first). Dustin and our Bureau Chief Chris Cadelago won second and third place, respectively, in the breaking news category and energy reporter Wes Venteicher snagged a sliver for his coverage of the environment. Congrats to all the winners. Former SF Mayor Willie Brown was at the gala to opine about...what else but politics? On Kamala Harris's loss: she couldn't do it in 107 days...On the 2026 gubernatorial: Arnold Schwarzenegger would win if he gets in again...on Breed's loss and Daniel Lurie's win: she suffered from anti-incumbent fervor and he benefited from self-funding...On the continuation of Willie Brown Inc.: As long as he can still breathe, there will never be a final chapter...
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| | CLIMATE AND ENERGY | |
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Point Reyes National Seashore | Photo courtesy of NPS. |
RISING WATERS: The San Francisco Bay Area’s planning agency is scheduled to vote today on the state’s most detailed sea-level rise adaptation guidelines. No one’s really opposed, yet no one’s really happy with them, either. Read more about the debate over the future of development along an iconic shoreline in yesterday’s California Climate.
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| A message from Phenomena Global:   |
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| TOP TALKERS | |
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Jeff Bezos said he's feeling optimistic about Donald Trump's return to office. | Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images |
IN TRUMP THEY TRUST — Two of the nation’s most prominent tech moguls say they’re not worried about Donald Trump or Elon Musk damaging their business, The New York Times reports. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, said “it would be profoundly un-American to use political power to the degree that Elon has it to hurt your competitors” and doubted he would make such a move. Amazon founder and sometime Musk rival Jeff Bezos went further, declaring he was “very hopeful” about Trump’s second term. “He seems to have a lot of energy around reducing regulation,” Bezos said. “And my point of view is, if I can help him do that, I’m going to help him.” SAFE HAVEN — California legislators want to further safeguard abortion access ahead of a second Trump presidency. As the Los Angeles Times reported, one measure would create penalties for cities and counties that block the building of abortion clinics. Another would protect health providers and drug manufacturers from litigation for distributing abortion pills. “The truth is, this is an urgent and dangerous situation,” Attorney General Rob Bonta said this week.
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| Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today. |
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| AROUND THE STATE | |
— Two assemblymembers are part of a new generation of political leaders: young, Republican millennials from the San Joaquin Valley. Meet Alexandra Macedo and David Tangipa. (The Fresno Bee) — Federal authorities are investigating a crash that killed three college students in Piedmont, a case that has highlighted deep suspicions about Tesla’s Cybertruck. (San Francisco Chronicle) — A onetime administrator in the San Diego Unified school district is suing, alleging the district’s former superintendent made unwanted sexual advances toward her. (The San Diego Union-Tribune) |
| A message from Phenomena Global: Not Resistance, Renaissance.
Phenomena Global unites Hollywood storytelling and Washington strategy to drive bold change through purpose-driven capitalism. Led by Hollywood entertainment leaders and founder Adrian Eng-Gastelum—a fixer for media moguls, artists, philanthropists, and ethical crypto and AI firms—our advisors include global studio executives, top journalists, bipartisan political leaders, a founding Latino Film Institute leader, and Oscar-winning directors. We’re raising capital for 22 projects that include Michelle Rodriguez, Alec Baldwin, Jane Fonda, Ryan Seacrest, and Eva Longoria. |
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| PLAYBOOKERS | |
SPOTTED: HEADED WEST — Former NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio talking to an airplane seatmate about the history of Marxism and its impact on the world on a Wednesday United flight from Dulles to LAX. He went to LA to speak to an event for University of Michigan alumni as part of his work with the university. CESAR TO CAPITOL ADVOCACY — Cesar Diaz, a principal policy consultant in Senate President Pro tem Mike McGuire's office is rejoining the private sector. He started as a lobbyist with Capitol Advocacy last week. He previously spent 14 years at the State Building and Construction Trades Council, PEOPLE MOVES — Cory Bullis has joined Invenergy as senior manager of government affairs in California, based in Sacramento. He will work on the public affairs aspects of the company’s clean-energy development portfolio. BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Wednesday): Timothy Burr Jr. WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com. |
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