| | | | |  | | By Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones | | Presented by |  | | | |  Gov. Gavin Newsom's clashes with President-elect Donald Trump could lead to another tumultuous year for California political insiders and elected officials. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | THE BUZZ: OUR PREDICTIONS — We hope the new year is less of a chaotic roller coaster ride than 2024 — but, if history is any indication, that might be wishful thinking. The upcoming year is poised to bring a host of sharp conflicts as Gov. Gavin Newsom is almost certain to clash more with incoming President Donald Trump, Democratic lawmakers in Sacramento resume punted policy fights and mayors brace for the trickle-down local effects. Our POLITICO California team huddled to make a list of top predictions for 2025: CALIFORNIA RESISTANCE, PART 2: Conventional wisdom and even comments from some in the party in recent weeks suggest Democrats are too tired, too bloodied to resist Trump in the same way they did in 2016. While that’s been true, once Trump takes office fights with California will begin immediately. The implications over everything from immigration to environmental policy are too important, and the political incentives for ambitious pols too great, for Democrats here to retreat. For anyone with doubts, the resistance will be alive and well in California. — Christopher Cadelago, bureau chief AFFORDABILITY IS THE WORD: 2025 will be the year of the “affordability” buzzword. Politicians from both parties are already ramping up their use of the a-word in their economic talking points — housing being No. 1, but also the cost of child care, gas, day-to-day living etc. Expect that could hit a saturation point in the coming year. Plan your political bingo cards and drinking games accordingly. — Melanie Mason, politics reporter HOUSING WILL BE KING: Democrats in the Legislature are expected to go BIG on housing this year. As Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas hinted in a speech this month, party leaders see boosting housing construction as a lane where they can combat the narrative that the party is tone deaf to cost-of-living concerns. Expect bills that would allow developers to bypass local planning restrictions and penalize cities that block housing. A tough spot, however, could be efforts to streamline construction in the coastal zone. Assemblymembers are eager to make it easier to build housing near the sea, but the Senate has been less receptive. — Dustin Gardiner, Playbook author TECH BATTLES INCOMING: Silicon Valley may have scored a win last session after Newsom vetoed a sweeping AI safety proposal, but the fight over regulation is far from over. That measure could return next year as AI and tech regulation is expected to continue dominating conversations in Sacramento. Lawmakers could also revisit requiring Big Tech to label AI-generated content and deepfakes and fining social media companies for harming minors. — Eric He, legislative reporter ICED OUT: California won’t take substantial action to derail Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents. The present political toxicity of tacking left on immigration, paired with the federal government’s sweeping authority in this area, will impede attempts to prevent deportations. Senate Bill 54 — the 2017 law that prevents California police from assisting ICE in several ways — will stay on the books, though. — Blake Jones, Playbook author EXPECT MORE RECALLS: After a series of successful recall campaigns, voters across the state will try to take their frustrations with elected officials to the ballot. In fact, the season has already kicked off — the San Mateo County Board of Supervisors is asking voters to recall the sheriff in March. — Will McCarthy, ballot measures reporter REPRO FUNDING WANTED: Expect reproductive health care to be a major budget issue this year. The influential California Future of Abortion Council has already sent a letter to the Legislature and Newsom administration asking the state to recommit to some programs the state has funded in the past. Grants for abortion providers, financial help for abortion seekers and better physical and digital security for both are some of the top priorities. — Rachel Bluth, health care reporter GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at dgardiner@politico.com and bjones@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @jonesblakej. WHERE’S GAVIN? Currently out of state.
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals, endangering public health. Governor Newsom vowed to shut down Aliso Canyon, but his Public Utilities Commission appointees voted to expand it. The PUC will decide Aliso Canyon’s future on December 19th. Learn more. | | | |  | CAMPAIGN YEAR(S) | | | 
Rep.-elect Adam Gray, a Democrat from the Central Valley. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo | THREE SHADES OF GRAY — Rep.-elect Adam Gray’s former chief of staff, Marva Diaz, has thoughts on how he flipped a California House seat from red to blue by fewer than 200 votes. She identified three central factors to Playbook: 1) Student organizing: Gray’s political science students at UC Merced volunteered for his campaign, providing a canvassing and phone banking boost that added to the labor-driven coalitions that typically buttress Democrats. 2) Endorsements: Republicans such as former state Sen. Anthony Cannella were particularly important, Diaz said. The campaign also had backing from local leaders and labor including Merced Mayor Matthew Serratto, several firefighter unions and the United Domestic Workers of America. 3) Hustle: Gray “was never lazy” on the campaign trail and met with people constantly before Election Day, Diaz said. His independence and work ethic, Diaz gushed, make him as rare as a Sasquatch — which is why Gray’s contact name in her phone is “Bigfoot Adam Gray.” For all her praise, Diaz acknowledged Gray’s political future is not secure in one of the country’s tightest House districts, which Trump won by over 5 percentage points. “He is going to have to start Day 1 with his reelection campaign,” she said. “It’s going to be one of those seats that is going to be competitive for a long time.”
|  Former state Senate leader Toni Atkins, a Democrat from San Diego. | Rich Pedroncelli for POLITICO | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: HERE COMES THE QUEER CAVALRY — National LGBTQ+ groups are mustering resources to boost former state Sen. Toni Atkins’ campaign for governor, a move that comes as she fights for attention in a crowded race. Victory Fund has endorsed Atkins’ campaign, as Playbook exclusively learned. The group’s president, former Houston Mayor Annise Parker, called Atkins, the former leader of the Senate and Assembly “the most experienced and qualified candidate.” The group could help boost Atkins’ fundraising efforts, which has lagged her competitors. Atkins, who’s often spoken about her experience growing up as a lesbian in rural southwestern Virginia, was also previously endorsed by LPAC, the national super PAC for LGBTQ+ women.
| | | | You read POLITICO for trusted reporting. Now follow every twist of the lame duck session with Inside Congress. We track the committee meetings, hallway conversations, and leadership signals that show where crucial year-end deals are heading. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | ON THE HILL | | |  California Sen. Alex Padilla. | Mark Schiefelbein/AP Photo | RULING THE ROOST — Sen. Alex Padilla was elected Wednesday to serve as ranking member on the Rules and Administration Committee. As the top Democrat on the panel, Padilla will be central to the party’s efforts to shape Senate procedures, as well as its oversight of the Federal Elections Commission. In a statement, Padilla said a key priority in his new role will be “protecting and defending free and fair elections.” California senators have a long history on the committee. The late Sen. Dianne Feinstein served on Rules for many years, and was the first woman to become chair.
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action:   | | | | | CLIMATE AND ENERGY | | IT'S ON — The Biden administration approved California’s electric vehicle rule Wednesday, just in time for Trump to start revoking it next month. Read why we’re in store for four more years of uncertainty in last night’s California Climate.
| | TOP TALKERS | | | | 
Outgoing Rep. Michelle Steel, a Republican from Orange County. | Jason Grow for POLITICO | — Recently defeated Republican Rep. Michelle Steel gave her last speech on the House floor, touting funding she secured to improve Orange County beaches and attempts to “reduce communist China’s influence in education.” She offered few hints at her next steps, saying only that she was heading home to her Southern California district. “While my time in Congress is ending, I will always look for ways to serve the country that I love,” she said. — Outgoing San Francisco Mayor London Breed’s appointment of Stephen Sherrill to fill a vacant seat on the Board of Supervisors sparked a flurry of speculation about her rationale. Sherrill is director of the Mayor’s Office of Innovation, but is largely unknown to many residents. As Mission Local’s Joe Eskenazi writes, Sherrill is a protege of former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg. The billionaire is close with Breed and pumped $1.5 million into her reelection campaign. — California’s next water war will be fought not over agriculture but over growing demand from artificial intelligence, opines California Air Resources Board member Dean Florez in The Sacramento Bee.
| | | | POLITICO Pro's unique analysis combines exclusive transition intelligence and data visualization to help you understand not just what's changing, but why it matters for your organization. Explore how POLITICO Pro will make a difference for you. | | | | | | | AROUND THE STATE | | — A sales tax failed in Encinitas despite a voter registration advantage for Democrats. Cost of living concerns and frustration with city government may have played into its demise. (Voice of San Diego) — The U.S. Forest Service closed Mt. Baldy to hiking until December 2025 due to wildfire damage. But hikers are rebelling, citing a lack of burn scars along several popular trails. (Los Angeles Times) — The founders of Bitwise Industries, a Fresno-based technology company, admitted in court this week to operating a multi-million-dollar fraudulent scheme. (The Fresno Bee) — Film, television and streaming companies in California have assembled a group to lobby for expanded tax breaks. As we reported for POLITICO Pro, Newsom wants to more than double the existing film tax credit. (Los Angeles Times)
| | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | 
San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie. | Jeff Chiu/AP Photo | SPOTTED: BRING BACK THE TECHIES — San Francisco Mayor-elect Daniel Lurie stopped by the downtown headquarters of Chime on Wednesday for a surprise appearance at an employee town hall. Lurie, who’s made it a top priority to draw tech workers back downtown, spoke onstage with CEO Chris Britt. Lurie teased the CEO over his ugly Christmas sweater, which featured Dr. Seuss’ the Grinch, and thanked the company for returning workers to the office. PEOPLE MOVES — Congratulations to our colleague Mia McCarthy, who has covered California’s delegation on the Hill with speed and style, on being named to the National Press Foundation’s 2025 class of Paul Miller fellows. SACTOWN — Capitol Advocacy, LLC and Aprea & Company announced a merger of the Sacramento lobbying firms. The move is effective Jan. 1. In a statement, the firms said clients “will benefit from the expanded expertise and resources of the combined firm.” BIRTHDAYS — Michelle Henry in the office of Assemblymember Rebecca Bauer-Kahan … Tal Kopan … DoorDash’s Maggie Polachek … BELATED B-DAY WISHES — (was Wednesday:) Holly Fraumeni De Jesús at Lighthouse Public Affairs … Steven Spielberg ... Leonard Maltin ... Joel Surnow WANT A SHOUT-OUT FEATURED? — Send us a birthday, career move or another special occasion to include in POLITICO’s California Playbook. You can now submit a shout-out using this Google form.
| | | | A message from Food & Water Action: Will Gov. Newsom side with the oil and gas industry or Californians after the “worst gas leak in US history?" In 2015, the Aliso Canyon Gas Storage Facility released 100,000 tons of methane and toxic chemicals. SoCalGas’ disaster forced thousands to evacuate their homes to avoid further exposure to cancer-causing benzene and other chemicals.
SoCalGas took four months to seal the gas leak. Families near Aliso are still suffering the consequences. Instead of shutting it down like Gov. Newsom promised, the PUC allowed Aliso to expand by 3,000%, perpetuating the public health threat.
Over 150 organizations have come together to call for a shutdown of Aliso by 2027, but the PUC is considering kicking the can down the road instead of protecting communities. Gov. Newsom and allies should stand with families, not SoCalGas’ profits. On December 19th, the PUC will decide the future of Aliso Canyon. Learn more. | | | CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Rebecca Haase to find out how: rhaase@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
