| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he's ready to negotiate with President-elect Donald Trump on Ukraine. | Gavriil Grigorov/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Paul McLeary, Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN says he’s ready to negotiate with President-elect DONALD TRUMP “anytime” about ending the war in Ukraine. That’s either a huge deal or a giant nothing burger. People involved in discussions over Ukraine’s future have strong opinions on both sides. In recent weeks, NatSec Daily has spoken to four former Trump administration officials, including some expected to join the next administration, and around a dozen officials from NATO countries about the prospects of Trump-Putin talks over Ukraine. All were granted anonymity to discuss their views on the matter candidly. On the “huge deal” side are pro-Trump Republicans who believe the president-elect’s penchant for personalized negotiations and bucking traditional diplomacy might just bring Putin and Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY to the table to unlock a peace deal for Ukraine. They were waiting for the right signal from Putin that he’d be open to talks. Putin’s announcement today that he is “ready for negotiations and compromises” could be seen as that signal. This also includes members of the new administration who argue against giving Ukraine more U.S. military aid, arguing that Washington needs to settle Ukraine swiftly to focus its attention and resources on China. On the “nothing burger” side are many NATO defense and security officials in eastern Europe as well as more establishment national security experts in Washington, who argue that whatever Putin says about negotiations is irrelevant because (1) he can’t be trusted and (2) he wants Ukraine under his thumb above all else. No combination of Trumpian personal diplomacy and flashy summits will change that, these officials argue. “Russians don’t stop an invasion through talks, they stop an invasion when you punch them in the face repeatedly until they realize they can’t go another step,” said one senior Eastern European defense official. “Any agreement to stopping the fighting today won’t cause Russia to lay down their arms, but give them time to build up for another round of attacks.” Ukraine has repeatedly said it has been open to Trump-brokered negotiations with Russia, but NATO officials privately say Ukraine doesn’t believe negotiations with Moscow will actually go anywhere. Still, Kyiv can’t afford not to, lest it push Trump to cut off military aid. Nonetheless, Putin’s comments seem calculated to get Moscow off to a stronger footing with the president-elect. “Putin is testing Trump to see if he can get Trump to move on his views on Ukraine,” said SHELBY MAGID, an analyst on Ukraine with the Atlantic Council think tank. “I don’t think Trump will fall into the trap because he doesn’t want to be Putin’s chump.”
| | SYRIA SURGE: The U.S. now has around 2,000 troops on the ground in Syria, Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PAT RYDER told reporters at the Pentagon today, our own PAUL MCLEARY writes in. That number is more than double the previously publicly acknowledged 900 troops that the Pentagon has been saying are on the ground there, and Ryder said he only learned of the higher number earlier in the day. The 1,100 extra troops have been there for “months,” Ryder said, even though Central Command and the Pentagon have been publicly sticking to the 900 number for some time, even though it was not correct. SDF CEASE-FIRE UNCERTAINTY: Turkey and the U.S. State Department seem to be in disagreement about whether a cease-fire between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces and Turkey was extended. On Tuesday, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters that a cease-fire between Turkey and the SDF brokered at the outset of recent fighting around the city of Manbij “has been extended into the end of this week, and we continue to engage with the SDF, with Turkey about a path forward.” But as Reuters reports, a Turkish official denied today that any cease-fire extension occurred and that talks are even taking place. “As Turkey, it is out of the question for us to have talks with any terrorist organization. The [U.S.] statement must be a slip of the tongue," the Turkish official told reporters. Turkey treats the SDF as a terrorist organization, a view born out of its fears of Kurdish succession and attacks by Kurdish militant groups towards targets in its borders. The Reuters report did not address whether Turkey might be having discussions with the U.S. Meanwhile, State Department spokesperson VEDANT PATEL insisted today that “our assessment continues to be that the ceasefire in Manbij has been extended and that it is holding, and we are closely monitoring the situation in Kobani.” The disagreement between Ankara and Washington comes as worries mount that the U.S.-backed SDF could find themselves fighting Turkish-based groups in Syria, threatening the potential security of ISIS detainee camps that the Kurdish forces are guarding in the country’s north. Turkey and its allies, the Syrian National Army, are reportedly planning an attack on territories held by the SDF. Syria’s Kurdish forces have pledged that non-Syrian Kurdish fighters would leave the country if a truce were to be announced. MAPPING IRAN’S DANGERS: A human rights organization today unveiled an interactive map that tracks Iran’s alleged acts of repression, including its threats against President-elect DONALD TRUMP and other U.S. political figures. As our own NAHAL TOOSI writes in, the project has documented 861 cases of extrajudicial executions and 124 instances of death threats or attempted kidnappings and assassinations over more than 40 years. That’s according to the ABDORRAHMAN BOROUMAND Center for Human Rights in Iran. The findings include cases both within Iran and outside its borders. The project shows the full extent of Iran’s reprisals against dissidents, critics and other perceived enemies, which occurred even under the more reformist government of President HASSAN ROUHANI. It also highlights how Tehran’s efforts to assassinate detractors extend far beyond its borders and even include extrajudicial killings in France, Malaysia and Canada within the last decade. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: What matters to us is protecting what matters most.
Lockheed Martin’s mission is to protect the ones who serve in their service to the nation. It’s why we lead the way in developing new defense tech and pushing the capabilities of what’s possible to bring security to an unsecure world. Learn more. | | | | | AMERICA’S CANADA TARIFF TROUBLES: A top Canadian official is warning that any tariffs against Ottawa could have a nasty side effect — making U.S. defense contractors more dependent on China for critical minerals. In an interview with our own STEVEN OVERLY on the POLITICO Tech podcast, Canadian Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE said his mission is to explain to Trump that Canadian mining is critical for defense companies in the United States. Canada, he explained, has invested heavily in cobalt and titanium mining, reducing dependence on China for minerals used in everything from high-tech medical equipment to computers to weapons systems. “If you say no to Canada, you’re basically saying yes to China when it comes to strategic supply chains,” Champagne said. “I don’t think that’s what the American people would want.” Champagne went on to note areas of cross-border partnerships on artificial intelligence and nuclear energy in order to beat China. Trump continues to threaten 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports as he presses for more border security enforcement action from the two U.S. neighbors. The Canadian government, meanwhile, has been at odds over how best to deal with Trump, tensions that culminated in the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND this week.
| | AUSTIN GETS ICED OUT: One surprising casualty of the White House’s efforts to insulate an aging President JOE BIDEN? Regular meetings between Biden and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. As The Wall Street Journal’s ANNIE LINSKEY, REBECCA BALLHAUS, EMILY GLAZER and SIOBHAN HUGHES report, Austin and Biden enjoyed a close relationship early on and Austin would attend the president’s daily briefing and routinely meet one-on-one behind closed doors. But over the last two years, the private meeting and Austin’s presence at the briefings diminished and Austin’s interactions with Biden were largely virtual. The White House and Pentagon insisted that Biden would regularly call Austin to discuss a range of issues and disputed accounts that their relationship has grown more distant. Austin isn’t the only U.S. national security official who got noticeably less face time with Biden over the last four years, according to the Journal. Reps. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) and JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), respectively the top Democrats on the House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, also struggled to get time with the president to discuss key issues, including the withdrawal from Afghanistan. Most contact on key issues was mediated by aides and staffers, they told the Journal.
| | | |   | | | | | HEGSETH READING LIST: Republican senators are pushing to get access to the FBI report on Trump’s pick to be Defense secretary, Fox News host PETE HEGSETH, once it’s complete. As our own JOE GOULD reports, the request from at least a dozen senators is unusual. Typically, the Senate Armed Services Committee limits access to the report to just the top two lawmakers on the panel. But both Democrats and Republicans say the report will be important for them to read as they review allegations of sexual assault against Hegseth, as well as alcohol abuse and mismanagement during his tenure at two veterans groups. “It would be helpful, given the allegations that have been lodged against Mr. Hegseth, to be able to see the FBI background check,” said Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine), who is a potential swing vote on Hegseth. Hegseth and the Trump team deny the claims against the veteran and former weekend host of “Fox and Friends.” And no Republicans have yet come out explicitly opposing his nomination. But the FBI report could give some vulnerable Republicans cover to vote against Hegseth if his nomination doesn’t sink. Read: Trump’s 7 most eye-opening European ambassador picks by our own SEB STARCEVIC
| | MORE GAZA GENOCIDE CALLS: Human Rights Watch became the latest group to accuse Israel of committing a genocide in the Gaza Strip, our own RORY O’NEILL reports. In a new report, Human Rights Watch alleges that Israeli actions in Gaza, including the deprivation of water, constitute genocide under international law. They’re not the onlt organization calling Israel’s actions in Gaza a major violation of international human rights law. Both Amnesty International and a special U.N. committee have stated that Israel is committing a genocide in the enclave against Palestinians. Doctors without Borders also put out a report today warning that Israel’s actions represent “ethnic cleansing.” The Israeli government rejects the allegations. In a post on X, Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesperson OREN MARMORSTEIN accused Human Rights Watch of “once more spreading its blood libels in order to promote its anti-Israel propaganda” and said its report is full of lies. Marmorstein emphasized that Israel is letting water and humanitarian aid enter the enclave (though aid groups have long disputed the government’s claims to that end). Marmorstein also criticized the Doctors without Borders report, calling it “entirely false and misleading.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Prepared for tomorrow. Ready for today.
Building a better world means developing the next generation of defense tech. We’re redefining what it means to be ready, so tomorrow’s challenges can be overcome today. Learn more. | | | | | — LESLEY BERNYS is the new executive director of the Department of Defense Cyber Crime Center. Bernys most recently served as chief information officer and director of information technology services and solutions at the Air Force Office of Special Investigations. — Former Rep. FILEMON VELA (D-Texas) was appointed by Democratic leaders CHUCK SCHUMER and HAKEEM JEFFRIES to co-chair the congressional Commission on the Future of the U.S. Navy alongside MACKENZIE EAGLEN, who was appointed by Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and GOP Senate Leader MITCH McCONNELL. — BRIAN SMITH will be director of nuclear reactor development at Idaho National Laboratory. He previously has been acting deputy assistant secretary for nuclear reactors at the Department of Energy and was a staffer for the House Appropriations Committee.
| | — GREG IP, Wall Street Journal: The hidden threat to national security is not enough workers — JOSH KIRSHNER and JONATHAN GREEN, Breaking Defense: The ‘Last Supper’ era is over — it’s time for the ‘First Breakfast’ — ELENA BECATOROS, The Associated Press: Separated for decades, Assad’s fall spurs hope for families split by Golan Heights buffer zone
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What's next for South Korea? — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: What does the fall of the Assad regime mean for Syria and the Middle East? — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: How should the U.S. respond to events in Georgia? — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 1 p.m.: The aftermath of South Korea's martial law fiasco Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, with whom we would like to have less contact and fewer meetings. Thanks to our producer, Giselle Ruhiyyih Ewing, who we want to see every day. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
