Torres, Lawler on Hochul's poll numbers

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Dec 10, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Jason Beeferman

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Governor Hochul goes grocery shopping with Capital Region constituent to highlight 2025 State of the State affordability agenda.

A new poll shows a large number of Democrats — and a majority of voters — want new options for governor. | Darren McGee/ Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

SIENA DILEMMA: Most New Yorkers want a Democratic governor, but even among Democrats, New Yorkers remain fed up with Gov. Kathy Hochul.

A new Siena poll found 57 percent of New Yorkers want a new governor — a bad sign for the incumbent who is facing re-election challengers 18 months before she is to appear on a primary ballot. She has an eight-point edge within her own party, but nearly all Republicans said they want a change.

And it stands to reason: Half those surveyed say the state is headed in the wrong direction, and two-thirds have a negative view of the state’s fiscal health under Hochul, who took office in 2021.

The poll found that 49 percent of the 834 registered New York voters have an unfavorable view of Hochul, but she won the support of 55 percent within her own party. And in answering a separate question, two-thirds of Democrats said they approve of Hochul’s job performance — offset by massive disapproval among Republicans.

Taken together, the results show a tough road ahead for the centrist governor as voters register anger with incumbents nationwide.

“I realize I have done an awful lot of good for the people of this state, but I'm not sure they understand how passionate I am about taking care of people, like Sally, and I’m going to let them see who I really am,” Hochul said.

She made the comments while touring an Albany supermarket, where she touted her new policy of “Inflation Refund” checks to constituents by “shopping” with constituent Sally McKenna. Yet the two left their cart full of meat, produce and eggs behind. (A spokesperson for Hochul said the state would donate the food to a local pantry).

Flashback to January 2022, 10 months before the governor would hold onto her seat by a slim margin and be blamed for Democratic losses down the ballot, voters were asked the same question.

Even leading up to that disaster for Democrats, 70 percent of Democratic voters said they would reelect her.

“That is absolutely going to be a challenge for the governor moving forward,” Siena poll spokesperson Steve Greenberg said.

The poll did show the governor made small gains among Republicans and males when compared to an October survey, which polled likely presidential election voters, a slightly different group. It also showed that Biden’s approval rating dipped further, while Hochul’s gained just a bit, with 39 percent of voters viewing her favorably, up three points.

Hochul’s likely challengers are already capitalizing on the new poll.

“These are the abysmal numbers of an abysmal governor in grave danger of losing the governorship,” Democratic Rep. and likely gubernatorial candidate Ritchie Torres told Playbook.

“Governor Hochul, who is an unusually unpopular incumbent, has a ceiling whereas I have a floor,” Torres added. “I have massive growth potential, and should I choose to run, I will have the war chest required to share my personal story and communicate my message to New Yorkers. Better to be a rising star than a failing incumbent.”

Torres has $11 million in the bank and could transfer it all to a gubernatorial campaign.

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, another likely contender for governor, also attacked Hochul.

“Two things are clear: New Yorkers are looking for change and Kathy Hochul is the most unpopular and ineffective governor in America,” said Chris Russell, a spokesperson for the Lawler campaign. “Congressman Lawler thanks Governor Hochul and Democrats for spending over $20 million dollars building up his name ID in the New York media market.”

The poll showed most New Yorkers have never heard of Torres and Lawler. Over 60 percent said they “don’t know” or have “no opinion” of the two House members.

“Outside of the district, very few people know who their adjoining congress people are or congress people from other parts of the state,” Greenberg said, noting Zeldin’s “don’t know” numbers were similar two years ago.

“I am not going to sit here and analyze it; I just kind of glanced at the stories,” Hochul said of the poll. “It doesn't matter. I'm going to continue letting New Yorkers know who I am, who I'm fighting for, very directly, and I'm going to get out there more and let them see me.” Jason Beeferman

 

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FROM THE DELEGATION

Rep. Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.).

Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat is showing support for Gov. Kathy Hochul. | Andrew Harnik/AP

ROLLING WITH THE SQUADRIANO: Rep. Adriano Espaillat has a message for Rep. Ritchie Torres: Sorry, not this time.

The Manhattan and Bronx Democrat gushed over Hochul in an X post today, saying she “has delivered time and time again for my district and communities across New York,” adding that he “cannot think of a stronger, more dedicated leader and champion for all New Yorkers.”

Espaillat’s congressional ally Torres is making a whole lot of noise about challenging Hochul for governor in 2026.

Espaillat’s backing would have been a great get for Torres, and his support seemed like a possibility. The Congressional Hispanic Caucus chair prioritizes Latino representation in politics, and he has no problem challenging incumbents.

He and Torres frequently work together in Congress, and have teamed up in tough elections before. Both backed Migeulina Camilo for state Senate in 2022 and Tali Farhadian Weinstein for Manhattan district attorney in 2021, and Torres endorsed Espaillat in his 2016 congressional race against Keith Wright.

Still, 2026 is far away, and lots could change. Espaillat initially endorsed Scott Stringer for mayor in 2021 before ditching him for Eric Adams after Stringer was accused of sexual misconduct decades earlier — an accusation he vehemently denies. Jeff Coltin

 

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FROM CITY HALL

Floyd Bennett Field's migrant shelter, home to over 500 people, was evacuated ahead of Tuesday night's oncoming storm.

The Floyd Bennett Field migrant shelter in the far reaches of Brooklyn is shutting down. | Jason Beeferman/POLITICO

MIGRANT SHELTER MILESTONE: The housing of migrant families at the federal Floyd Bennett Field in Brooklyn had united in outrage Republican politicians and legal, immigrant and housing advocates.

Today, the two sides are applauding Mayor Eric Adams’ confirmation that the sprawling tent complex would be one of 25 shelter sites across the city to close.

City Hall cites the tumbling rate of new arrivals from the southern border as its reason for shuttering shelters. But Floyd Bennett Field — an airfield that was a temporary home to 2,000 migrants — is set to close just before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

Coincidence as Trump threatens mass deportations? Adams did not name the president-elect in his announcement. And those who’ve pressured the mayor to close Floyd Bennett Field aren’t discussing that conclusion yet.

“I think he wants to relocate people who have been living in a tent for over a year and a half, where the conditions were not optimal,” Republican City Council Member Joann Ariola told Playbook. “The census has gone down to a point where now they can take those families and relocate them into shelters that are not cubicles inside of a tent on an open airfield.”

The Legal Aid Society and Coalition for the Homeless added in a joint statement: “Floyd Bennett Field — a semi-congregate facility where families with children live in tents on an unused airfield mired in a flood zone, miles from schools, and other services — was always the wrong location to shelter vulnerable families with young children.” — Emily Ngo

 

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FROM THE CAPITOL

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie.

Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie has been reelected to his post. | Mike Groll/AP

CARL’S BACK: Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie will lead his Democratic supermajority for another two-year term.

The Bronx Democrat’s uncontested vote to remain the top lawmaker means his speakership will stretch to a decade. Heastie replaced scandal-scarred Speaker Sheldon Silver in 2015.

“The New York State Assembly is the most diverse legislative body in the country, leading the way in passing groundbreaking legislation that serves as a model for other states and indeed the entire country,” Heastie said in a statement. “I look forward to getting to work with my colleagues in 2025 as we strive to lift up all New Yorkers and help them climb the ladder of economic success and prosperity.”

Despite political upheaval in Washington, D.C. — where Republicans are poised to take over every branch of government next month — little will change in Albany next year.

The red wave did not thwart state Democrats’ majorities in both legislative branches, and Heastie’s victory follows Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins’ reelection earlier this month as the highest-ranking Democrat in her chamber.

Assembly Minority Leader Will Barclay and Senate Minority Leader Robert Ortt, both Republicans, will remain in their posts as well. — Nick Reisman

 

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AROUND NEW YORK

UH-OH: Half of the claims for public matching funds submitted by Adams were deemed “invalid” by the city’s campaign finance board. (Daily News)

FIREWALL?: The FDNY commissioner’s security firm made June donations to Adams reelection campaign six weeks before he was appointed to the role. (Gothamist)

HEADING TRUMPWARD: Adams stance on migrants is increasingly veering to one reminiscent of the President-elect. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

 

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Read the full story to see how gig work earnings are reshaping NYC’s labor landscape. Learn More.

 
 

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