President-elect Donald Trump’s choice of billionaire space enthusiast Jared Isaacman to lead NASA earned immediate congratulations from Elon Musk and an explosion of enthusiasm from the stargazing corners of the right. Newt Gingrich — once derided for what seemed like far-fetched ambitions to build a lunar base, now seemingly vindicated — wrote on X that Isaacman “is precisely the kind of risk taking entrepreneur we need if we are going to truly become a space faring nation.” Jim Bridenstine, NASA administrator during Trump’s first term, warmly praised Isaacman's “proven track record of success in private industry.” Former Republican member of Congress Peter Meijer, calling it an “awesome pick,” pointed out that Isaacman himself “was literally in space less than 3 months ago,” having conducted the first private spacewalk in September. In addition to the September spacewalk, Isaacman was part of the first ever all-private manned spaceflight in 2021. So what is it that has Isaacman’s fans so excited, aside from the cool factor of having an active space pioneer leading NASA? The answer lies in the growing entanglement between America’s space program and its private space industry, which Isaacman represents as a space-obsessed entrepreneur who wants the country to reach Mars as badly as Musk does — and who sees a massive rethink of the space program as necessary to do it. Greg Autry, a liaison and advisor to NASA during Trump’s first term who is now associate provost for space commercialization and strategy at the University of Central Florida, told DFD Isaacman is the “best choice [he] can imagine,” largely for that reason. “He’s been there. He understands the technology,” Autry told DFD. “More importantly, he understands business at a time when NASA is migrating to commercial solutions for many of the things they used to do internally.” What would a NASA even more entangled with the private sector actually look like? The agency has already outsourced development of key spacecraft, and manned missions to the International Space Station, to private firms. Musk’s SpaceX has ferried the vast majority of NASA astronauts to the ISS in recent years and its Starship reusable spacecraft is central to its future plans; Houston-based Intuitive Machines built the Odysseus lander that brought America back to the moon this year for the first time in more than a half-century. Todd Harrison, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies space, told DFD an Isaacman-led NASA might start with a massive overhaul of the Artemis program, the agency’s mission to return humans to the moon this decade and build a lunar space station. Artemis has been plagued by delays, and space-watchers see a second Trump administration as an opportunity for radical disruption — starting potentially with the Space Launch System, Artemis’ primary launch vehicle. SLS was developed mostly by Boeing, and has been dogged by criticism that its rockets are too expensive and unreliable. Isaacman has criticized the program on X, and Harrison suggested it could be first on the chopping block. “SLS is not likely to survive, at least not in its current form,” Harrison said. NASA is already in the process of transitioning the program from its old “legacy” contract structure to a commercial one meant to reduce costs and make SLS more competitive. Harrison also speculated that NASA might shift the focus of the Artemis program from a lunar space station to more activity on the lunar surface, likely in his view as a prelude to Mars exploration, a key goal for Isaacman and Musk. “It’s entirely likely that we see NASA start a concerted effort to send humans to Mars, including delivery of initial cargo and supplies when the 2028 launch window opens up,” Harrison said. “That’s a fast timeline for NASA, [but] it’s entirely possible … we're likely to see a real Mars mission begin under this administration.” To make these plans is one thing, but to execute them in a bureaucracy as dense as NASA’s, with its thicket of protectors in Congress, might be entirely another. Harrison acknowledged that Isaacman, who has no government experience, will have to contend with lawmakers who represent districts where potentially scrapped programs could lead to lost jobs. (Canceling the SLS contract would require Congressional approval.) He’ll also have to serve as a de facto diplomat, managing America’s collaborations in space with other countries through the International Space Station and the Artemis Accords, which govern modern space exploration. Isaacman could get some help if Trump picks a more experienced Washington hand as deputy NASA administrator. Considering Musk’s apparent influence on space issues and well-documented lack of regard for “Washington experience,” however, the 41-year-old space dynamo could end up backed by little more than his own gumption and the growing momentum for the private space industry. “He’s going to be thrust into a foreign environment,” Harrison said. “Perhaps more foreign than the space walk he took a few months ago.” |