Trump vs. Biden on Syria

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Dec 10, 2024 View in browser
 
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DRIVING THE DAY

THE STORY EVERYONE’S TALKING ABOUT — “Key details to know about the arrest of a suspect in the killing of UnitedHealthcare’s CEO,” AP: “The suspect, identified by police as LUIGI NICHOLAS MANGIONE, had a gun believed to be the one used in Wednesday’s attack on BRIAN THOMPSON, as well as writings expressing anger at corporate America, police said. … One of Luigi Mangione’s cousins is Republican Maryland state legislator NINO MANGIONE, a spokesman for the lawmaker’s office confirmed Monday.”

WON’T YOU BE MY NEIGHBOR — From DONALD TRUMP’s Truth Social account, shortly after midnight (emphasis ours): “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor JUSTIN TRUDEAU of the Great State of Canada. I look forward to seeing the Governor again soon so that we may continue our in depth talks on Tariffs and Trade, the results of which will be truly spectacular for all! DJT.”

People attend a rally celebrating the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad's government.

People attend a rally celebrating the fall of Syrian President Bashar Assad's government, in the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, Dec. 8, 2024. | Matias Delacroix/AP

THE ROAD FROM DAMASCUS — There’s only one president at a time, the old Washington maxim goes. And amid everything else happening right now in the raucous transition from JOE BIDEN to Trump, nothing is going to challenge that notion quite like the fast-developing situation in Syria.

BASHAR AL-ASSAD’s sudden departure from the scene has introduced a new sense of opportunity, risk and — most of all — uncertainty as we move from one president to another. And it is quickly serving to highlight the radically different foreign policy approaches of the two men.

Trump has already signaled he is ready to employ a light touch when it come to dealing with the insurgents of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (aka HTS) and its leader, ABU MOHAMMED AL-GOLANI.

“Syria is a mess, but is not our friend,” Trump wrote on Truth Social over the weekend, and “THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

There’s reason to think that’s more than a bluff: Trump previously moved, in 2018, to extract U.S. troops stationed in Syria on counterterrorism missions, which was interpreted at the time as strengthening the hand of Assad and his allies in Russia and Iran. It helped prompt the resignation of then-Defense Secretary JIM MATTIS, though some troops ultimately stayed.

“His first instinct as this evolves is not going to be, ‘Let me go and fix it,’” one former Trump foreign policy official told Playbook last night. “His first instinct is going to be to say, ‘Why should I? You, the interagency, need to convince me why I would take any action.’”

Contrast that with Biden — who, if nothing else, appears determined to firm up his foreign policy legacy in the final weeks in office as a master of the global chess board.

His struggles to put a lid on the conflict between Israel and Hamas over the past 14 months have suddenly given way to a radically changed Middle East, with Iran’s Hezbollah proxies decimated by Israel and now, shockingly, Assad off the scene more than a decade after the Syrian civil war first bedeviled BARACK OBAMA.

Now Biden and his team are scrambling to put his stamp on the new regional order in his final 40 days — and create, to the extent they can, the world that the Trump administration will inherit.

They’re not naive: From our conversations inside the White House and with other officials connected to the Biden administration, we’ve picked up a distinct sense that they are trying to focus on what they can control amid a fast-moving and multifaceted situation.

Among many other moves happening in Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN is jetting to Israel last this week to figure out what steps can be immediately taken.

Here’s what to watch as Biden tries to leave his mark in the new Middle East:

  • How will he handle HTS? The rebel group ousted a feared dictator, but it also has historic ties to al Qaeda. It has since renounced radicalism and sent encouraging early signs about its tolerance but remains on the official U.S. list of terror groups. The debate over whether it should remain, as our colleagues Robbie Gramer, Nahal Toosi, and Eric Bazail-Eimil write, is already furiously underway. “There is a huge scramble to see if, and how, and when we can delist HTS,” one current administration official told them.
  • How will he handle ISIS? The remains of the once fearsome terror syndicate have been relegated to remote camps largely in eastern Syria, and the U.S. moved promptly after Assad’s fall to bomb whatever ISIS targets it could find. Now there’s a pressure campaign on HTS to keep its distance from whatever elements remain. One senior administration official told Playbook the early signs on that front are encouraging.
  • How will he protect longtime U.S. allies? It’s hard to understate how volatile the situation is for Syria’s neighbors in Israel and Jordan, not to mention the fragile democracies in Iraq and Lebanon. As Sullivan’s shuttle diplomacy shows, expect a lot of care to prevent any sudden destabilizing actions.
  • How will he keep the Russians and Iranians out? The larger foreign policy dividend for the U.S. here is the massive setback seen by its global adversaries. Expect HTS to be massively wary about any renewal of Iranian influence, but Russia could be a more sensitive subject. Will the U.S. be able to fend off any attempts at rapprochement allowing VLADIMIR PUTIN to maintain his important military presence in the region?
  • How will he handle the Turks? This might be the most sensitive task of all: Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN was HTS’s most important foreign backer and how has a new position of power and influence. And almost immediately upon Assad’s fall, Turkish forces started bombing U.S.-allied Kurdish forces inside Syria. Perhaps Biden’s biggest test is establishing some workable arrangement before Trump comes in.

As for Trump, watch over the next few weeks as his emerging foreign policy brain trust tries to square his stated policy of nonintervention with his competing priorities of protecting Israel and isolating Iran while also practicing realpolitik with strongmen like Putin and Erdoğan.

“Beginnings are very fragile times,” the former Trump official said. “And this is going to determine a great deal of what happens.”

Good Tuesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.

 

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Pete Hegseth walks with his wife.

Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump's nominee for secretary of Defense, visits with various senators in the Russell Senate Office Building in Washington, on Dec. 9. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO

APPOINT OF CONTENTION — The Trump transition team entered a critical week of nomination meetings on Capitol Hill with a new head of steam, emboldened by a swarm of grassroots support and a pressure campaign that has revived PETE HEGSETH’s hopes for Defense secretary and given them confidence about other controversial nominees, too, Meridith McGraw and Natalie Allison report.

“In recent days, allies of Trump adopted an approach that is not novel for the president-elect and his followers: Make life extremely uncomfortable for anyone who dares to oppose him. The swarm of MAGA attacks that Sen. JONI ERNST has experienced is a warning of what’s in store for others who express skepticism of his personnel choices.”

As with nearly everything involving Trump, the nominees’ fortunes could change as quickly as it takes to post on Truth Social, and Trump’s team is still carefully tracking support on Capitol Hill. “But the palpable shift demonstrated how grassroots pressure, combined with the influence of Vice President-elect JD VANCE, helped bolster Hegseth only days after Trump was drawing up contingency plans to tap Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS instead.”

People close to Trump believed that if Hegseth’s nomination were “sacrificed” to Ernst, it would have opened up a “feeding frenzy” with the other controversial picks, such as TULSI GABBARD, ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. and KASH PATEL.

Here’s a roundup of how the confirmation campaigns are shaking out …

On Hegseth for Defense: Right on cue, Ernst sounded closer to supporting Hegseth yesterday after a second meeting with the controversial nominee — but the Iowa Republican still left herself some wiggle room by not explicitly stating how she’ll vote in the end.

Ernst said she extracted commitments from Hegseth on auditing the Pentagon and naming a senior official whose purview would include tackling military sexual assault. “It was a very productive meeting,” she told reporters. “We're just moving through the process, but he does respect that I'm taking the time.” More from Connor O’Brien and Joe Gould

On Gabbard for DNI: Gabbard hit the Hill hard yesterday, meeting with a host of defense hawks in an aim to assuage any concerns over her nomination. Following meetings with Ernst, as well as Sens. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.) and LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.), the indication from Ernst and Rounds were that the meetings were productive. More from John Sakellariadis

The latest appointments: MARK PAOLETTA, a prominent D.C. lawyer and former counsel to MIKE PENCE, will be general counsel at OMBHARMEET DHILLON, the former vice chair of the California GOP, will be assistant AG for civil rights at DOJ … Trump is backing KC CROSBIE, the RNC’s current treasurer and Kentucky’s national committeewoman, to succeed his daughter-in-law LARA TRUMP as RNC co-chair.

 

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WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY

On the Hill

The Senate will meet at 10 a.m. to resume consideration of LAUREN McFERRAN’s nomination to be a member of the National Labor Relations Board (more on that in a moment) and take up a judicial nomination.

The House will meet at 10 a.m.

3 things to watch …

  1. No one seems to be especially happy about the compromise National Defense Authorization Act. Defense hawks are mad about the bill’s slimmed-down topline. Progressives don’t like its language restricting some health care for transgender youth. And yet it seems, for now, to be on track for passage before lawmakers leave town next week. Conservatives on the House Rules Committee fell in line yesterday and sent the bill to the floor for action this week. And while members might have their gripes, most will be hard-pressed to vote against a 14.5 percent pay raise for America’s junior enlisted troops.
  2. Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER took a break from his judge-confirming campaign yesterday to tee up votes on two nominees to the National Labor Relations Board. Those are important posts — beyond the reach of Trump’s firing power — which is why Americans for Prosperity and allied conservative groups are urging senators this morning to oppose McFerran, whose confirmation would secure a Democratic majority on the board into 2026: “This lame-duck Administration and Senate majority should not be permitted to extend their failed policies … deep into President Trump’s term,” they write. Read the letter
  3. House Republicans are closer to picking their new committee chairs: The big surprise out of the GOP steering committee yesterday was Rep. BRIAN MAST (R-Fla.) triumphing over three more senior lawmakers for the Foreign Affairs gavel. He’ll be a more reliably MAGA-minded voice than hawkish predecessor MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas). Also winning steering nods were BRETT GUTHRIE (R-Ky.) for Energy and Commerce and BRIAN BABIN for Science, Space and Technology. All the steering picks are subject to ratification by the full GOP Conference.

At the White House

Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning. Shortly after noon, Biden will deliver remarks on the economy at the Brookings Institution. In the evening, Biden will deliver remarks at a Christmas for All Dinner in Celebration of Unity, America, and Special Olympics. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.

 

REGISTER NOW: As the 118th Congress ends, major decisions loom, including healthcare appropriations. Key focus: site neutrality. Can aligning hospital and clinic costs cut federal spending, reflect physician costs, and lower patient expenses? Join policymakers and providers to discuss.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

TRANSITION LENSES

Donald Trump sits on couch.

President-elect Donald Trump (pictured) meets with Prince William at the Embassy of the United Kingdom in Paris. | Getty Images/Oleg Nikishin

THE NAME GAME — As Trump continues tossing names at vacancies to fill out his administration, the ambassadorships are perhaps the highest-profile yet-to-be-named posts awaiting announcements from the president-elect.

“While several foreign posts are important in any administration because the country is a close U.S. ally or a neighbor to an adversary, some ambassadorial jobs will take on heightened significance in Trump’s second term because of the incoming president’s existing relationship with — or comments about — the country,” Lauren Egan, Lisa Kashinsky and Eric Bazail-Eimil write.

Here’s some of the notable slots to watch:

  • Saudi Arabia: Whoever steps into this role will have to navigate thorny issues, ranging from energy production to relations with Iran and Israel. Trump took some heat during his first term for leaving this posting vacant for nearly two years, eventually announcing a nominee after the brutal killing of JAMAL KHASHOGGI.
  • Japan: Perhaps no country developed as warm a relationship with the Trump administration as Japan did the first time around. But as Nippon Steel is making a controversial bid to purchase U.S. Steel, Japan grows as a linchpin of the U.S. strategy to contain China.
  • Colombia: Trump’s pick for Bogotá will also be charged with handling the relationship with Venezuela. Trump is under pressure, particularly from oil executives, to normalize the relationship — abandoning his first term approach of maximum pressure in an effort to cut migration and reopen more oil operations.

More top reads:

  • Speaking of … KARI LAKE, the failed Arizona Senate and gubernatorial candidate, has emerged as a top contender to become Trump’s ambassador to Mexico, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports.
  • A collection of more than 75 Nobel Prize winners signed a letter urging the Senate to reject ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.’s nomination to head up HHS, NYT’s Teddy Rosenbluth writes. “The letter, obtained by The New York Times, marks the first time in recent memory that Nobel laureates have banded together against a Cabinet choice.”
  • FWIW: Senior Trump adviser JASON MILLER tried to walk back the president-elect’s recent statement that he believes the members of the House’s Jan. 6 committee who investigated him should be jailed, telling CNN yesterday that Trump is “going to leave that up to the law enforcement agents in charge.” More from Greta Reich 

CONGRESS

TRACKING THE TRACKS — GOP leaders need to hurry to make a decision on their reconciliation strategy before January rolls around if they’re serious about getting border money out the door. In a major sign of what’s coming down the pipe, Speaker MIKE JOHNSON and Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE “privately agree” with House Ways and Means Chair JASON SMITH (R-Mo.) that “the best strategic move would be to tie border funding to an extension of expiring tax cuts in one big, sweeping package,” our colleague Benjamin Guggenheim reports for Pros.

But, but, but: “The House leaders, though, haven’t officially backed the strategy and will ultimately defer to what President-elect Trump decides.”

A BITE OF THE APPLE — “Johnson needs Dems to pass a stopgap spending bill. Here’s what they want,” by Daniella Diaz

BIG IN THE SUNSHINE STATE — Trump recently spoke with Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS to put in a good word about appointing his daughter-in-law LARA TRUMP to the Senate seat being vacated by Secretary of State-designate MARCO RUBIO, WSJ’s Alex Leary reports. “DeSantis’s allies say he is considering a range of candidates, but they agree picking Lara Trump would go a long way toward patching up his relationship with the incoming president.”

WILD ONE — “Susan Wild absent from Ethics Committee meeting after Gaetz leaks to press,” by The Hill’s Mychael Schnell: “Two sources said Wild ultimately acknowledged to the panel that she had leaked information.”

JUST POSTED — Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) speaks with the National Catholic Reporter’s Camillo Barone for an in-depth interview, where the former speaker offers critiques of POPE FRANCIS’ China policy, discusses her clashes with Catholic bishops and publicly comments on the Democratic challengers in House committee leadership races. On fresh Dems looking to take over the top committee spots: “I respect the fact that they're ready to take charge of their committees.” On the SF archbishop’s Communion ban: “I received Communion anyway. That's his problem, not mine.”

 

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ALL POLITICS

THE AGE-OLD QUESTION — After an election season that saw the two oldest candidates for president in the history of the U.S., there’s a renewed focus on what the proper age for a president should be. A group of Democratic governors gathered in California this weekend to conduct an after-action report following their party’s bruising losses. “But in interviews with roughly 10 Democratic governors and candidates for governor, no one offered an explicit age limit for the next nominee. And some said that age was irrelevant altogether if a candidate appeared to be in strong shape and was connecting with voters,” NYT’s Katie Glueck, Reid Epstein and Nick Corasaniti write.

The question: How old is too old for the 2028 Democratic nominee? The answers: “There’s no such thing,” said 65-year-old New Mexico Gov. MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM. “It’s not a time of life, it’s a state of mind,” said 57-year-old California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM, 57, of California. “When I was growing up, people who were 65 were almost dead. I’m 65. I’m not almost dead,” said New York Gov. KATHY HOCHUL.

MEDIAWATCH

The Washington Post Building.

The Washington Post Building at One Franklin Square Building on June 5, 2024, in Washington. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

WHEN THE STORY IS THE STORY — In the world of media news, MATEA GOLD departing WaPo for the rival New York Times marked a major shakeup of the landscape as the Post searches for a new executive editor. Now, NPR’s David Folkenflik reports that acting executive editor MATT MURRAY “intervened to block an article about the departure of its second-highest-ranking editor, a contender for the position.”

On Saturday, Murray reportedly “told editors that the paper should not cover itself,” which would be a major break from a long-running tradition of the Post’s scrupulous coverage of itself: “Murray took responsibility for the decision not to have the Post cover this latest development about its leadership, despite the ramifications for the paper. An editor with whom he spoke told colleagues that Murray had not read the planned article on Gold but said to ‘pin it on me’ if anyone asked why it did not run.”

‘SUCCESSION’ IN REAL LIFE — A Nevada commissioner “ruled resoundingly against RUPERT MURDOCH’s attempt to change his family’s trust to consolidate his eldest son LACHLAN’s control of his media empire and lock in Fox News’s right-wing editorial slant,” NYT’s Jonathan Mahler and Jim Rutenberg report.

 

Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Matt Gaetz has found a new perch.

Joe Donnelly is coming home from Rome.

Ted Cruz wants Daniel Penny to sue Alvin Bragg.

Eric Trump is in the UAE on behalf of the family crypto business.

Nadine Menendez will go to trial on Jan. 21.

Rahna Epting is stepping down as executive director of MoveOn.

OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at the portrait unveiling of former Secretary of State John Kerry on Monday at the State Department hosted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken: Jake Sullivan, Tom Sullivan, Evan Ryan, Suzy George, Jon Finer, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), Rich Verma, David Wade, Charlie Rivkin, Anne Patterson, David McKean, Doug Hickey, Kuwaiti Ambassador Sheikha Al-Zain Al-Sabah, Scott Nathan, Elizabeth Bagley, Jen Psaki, Terry McAuliffe, Bob Barnett and Rita Braver, Daniel Sepulveda, Heather Higginbottom, Jackson Dunn, David Thorne, John Kirby, Vanessa Kerry and Kitty DiMartino. Pic of the portrait, done by artist Steve Polson

— SPOTTED at the home of Emily Lampkin for the annual Ladies Only Holiday Party yesterday evening: Betsy Fischer Martin, Annmarie Hordern, Antonia Ferrier, Sara Fagen, Sandra Swirski, Greta Joynes, Negah Angha, Meredith Broadbent, Carrie Cordero, Kathy O’Hearn, Kristian Denny Todd, DJ Nordquist, Marlene Colucci, Jackie Arends, Rachel Brand, Alexandra Kendrick, Emily Miller, Jane Adams, Margie Warrell, Anita McBride, Pam Stevens, Austrian Ambassador Petra Schneebauer and Greek Ambassador Ekaterini Nassika.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: BOOK CLUB — Chris Whipple is penning a new chronicle of the 2024 election, titled “Uncharted: How Trump Beat Biden, Harris, and the Odds in the Wildest Campaign in History,” set for publication by HarperCollins on April 8, 2025. The book is set to deliver behind-the-scenes details on the inner workings of the Trump campaign, the Biden campaign and Democrats’ dramatic transition to elevate Harris as the presidential nominee. Lisa Sharkey of Harper Influence acquired world rights from Lisa Queen at Queen Literary, and Harper Influence’s Maddie Pillari will edit the book. See the cover 

TRANSITIONS — Leonardo Martinez-Diaz is now senior fellow and director of the Sustainability, Climate, and Geopolitics Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously led the climate finance team in the Office of the Special Presidential Envoy for Climate at the State Department. … Nicholas Graham is now VP of government affairs at Invesco. He previously was an economic policy legislative assistant for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). …

… Matt Reid is now U.S. CEO at Burson Buchanan. He previously was managing director and head of the Los Angeles office for H/Advisors Abernathy. … Jaclyn Rothenberg is joining Avoq as SVP. She previously was director of public affairs at FEMA. … Tim Keating is now SVP of government relations at AMD. He most recently was SVP for government operations at Sierra Space and is a Boeing and Clinton White House alum.

ENGAGED — Matt Bolander, special assistant for Sen. Todd Young (R-Ind.), and Brooke Sorenson, corporate comms specialist at Anaplan, got engaged on Friday on the Speaker’s Balcony. The couple met through the McLean Presbyterian Capital Fellows program. Pic 

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. John Boozman (R-Ark.) … Reps. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) and Austin Scott (R-Ga.) … Susan B. Anthony List’s Marjorie Dannenfelser Symone Sanders-Townsend … NBC’s Andrea Canning … ROKK Solutions’ Kristin Wilson … CNN’s Alex Koppelman … Fox News’ Mike EmanuelPatrick O’Neil … DOJ’s Carlos Uriarte Hope Hodge SeckMike Shields of Convergence Media … POLITICO’s Katie Fossett, Erin Durkin, Lulu Parajuli and Angelina KatsanisKatherine Warren Christina Coloroso of Analyst Institute … Kieran MahoneyEllie CohanimDavid French of the National Retail Federation … Nathan Daschle of the Daschle Group … former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga.) … former Reps. Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.) and Harley Rouda (D-Calif.) … Megan Whittemore ... Marc Mezvinsky ... Susan Milligan ... David KieveJess PetersonKip Wainscott Becca ArbacherJasper CravenJorge NeriAlice CohanBlake Nolan of Rep. Mike Ezell’s (R-Miss.) office … Patrice de BeerPatricia Clarke of Rep. Carlos Giménez’s (R-Fla.) office … The Analyst Institute’s Christina ColorosoMelissa Harrison

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