| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Nahal Toosi | |  President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump’s team have coordinated closely on hashing out Mideast negotiations, despite the noxious partisanship infecting Washington. | Evan Vucci/AP | With help from Connor O’Brien, John Sakellariadis, Maggie Miller and Daniel Lippman, Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric An Israel-Gaza cease-fire deal appears closer than ever, and both JOE BIDEN and DONALD TRUMP’s camps are scrambling for credit. Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, in remarks at the Atlantic Council today, said a deal was on the cusp of being finalized and stressed that “whether we get there in the remaining days of our administration, or after January 20, I believe the deal will follow closely the terms of the agreement the President Biden put forward last May.” But Trump’s allies are simultaneously rushing to stake a claim to the would-be deal, citing Trump’s repeated warnings to the Hamas militant group that there would be “hell to pay” if it didn’t agree to release all hostages by the time he took office. “Our ‘hell to pay warnings’ moved things further than anything else I’ve seen from the Biden side recently”, said one Trump transition official, who was granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly. It’s a classic Washington game: Make sure your team and not the other guys get the credit for a foreign policy breakthrough. In this case, though, both sides appear to have helped move the needle. The Biden team has had the grueling job of crossing multiple hurdles to reach a deal since the Gaza war broke out on Oct. 7, 2023, including tensions with Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s government, Hamas intransigence and global anger toward U.S. foreign policy. But the Biden team got an assist from ‘bad cop” Trump. “Either clinch a deal with us or get the ‘hell to pay’ president” is a helpful bargaining chip for negotiators in the outgoing administration to use with Hamas and other Middle Eastern players involved in the conflict. A senior Israeli official, who was granted anonymity as they're not authorized to discuss sensitive ongoing negotiations, told our own JAMIE DETTMER that he’s increasingly confident the agreement will be clinched, thanks in part to Trump’s election. Former Israeli Prime Minister EHUD OLMERT agrees that Netanyahu has been more open to a ceasefire-for-hostages deal this time around thanks to the Trump effect. “He is afraid of Trump,” Olmert told Dettmer. Biden and Trump’s team have coordinated closely on hashing out Mideast negotiations, despite the noxious partisanship infecting Washington. As loyal NatSec Daily readers recall, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and his successor, Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) have back-channeled frequently on the Middle East and other issues. And both Biden and Trump’s top Middle East negotiators — the White House’s BRETT McGURK and Trump’s incoming envoy STEVE WITKOFF — are in Doha together attending talks today to hash out details of what could be a final agreement. The deal could be finalized in the coming days, top officials have said.
| | BIDEN’S CUBA PARTING SHOT: The Biden administration is removing Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terror in a major last-minute olive branch extension to Havana. As Eric reports, the move comes as the Catholic Church brokers the release of political prisoners detained during mass pro-democracy protests on the island in July 2021. The administration, per senior officials, will suspend provisions of the Helms-Burton Act that have allowed Cuban exiles to sue the regime for compensation for assets taken by the state following the 1959 Cuban Revolution, and nix a list of entities barred from financial transactions. It’s not likely to last, however. The Trump administration is expected to reverse many, if not all, of Biden’s parting gestures once it takes office. GABBARD’S TOUGH CLIMB: Add first-term Sen. JOHN CURTIS (R-Utah) to the list of Republican skeptics of TULSI GABBARD’s embattled bid to be director of national intelligence. Speaking at our POLITICO Playbook: The First 100 Days event, Curtis told our own ALEXANDER BURNS that he has serious issues with Gabbard, a former House member from Hawaii. "The biggest problem for me is she's been so low-profile," he said. "The others have come to my office and so if you go back to that analogy of a sheet of music, her sheet's pretty blank for me. I need more information to start filling that in, and, look, if I can't fill that in, I can't vote for her." He’s the latest Republican to criticize Gabbard, a Democrat-turned-Trump surrogate who’s come under fire for past comments defending former Syrian dictator BASHAR AL-ASSAD; allegedly promoting Russian talking points about Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine; and lambasting U.S. allies such as Japan. Others concerned about Gabbard include Sen. MIKE ROUNDS (R-S.D.), who sits on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, which is reviewing Gabbard’s nomination. THE OTHER GAZA PLAN: During his speech today, Blinken also outlined an ambitious, but likely unrealistic, post-war plan for Gaza that the Biden team will leave for the Trump team, our own NAHAL TOOSI writes in. Its elements include key roles for a reformed Palestinian Authority, international partners (likely meaning mainly Arab countries) and the United Nations. The U.N. official would oversee the stabilization and recovery efforts. The goal is to “allow Israel to fully withdraw from Gaza, prevent Hamas from pulling back in and provide for Gaza's governance, security and reconstruction,” Blinken said at the Atlantic Council in between being heckled by protesters. Blinken had tough words for Hamas militants, Palestinian officials and Israeli leaders — who will each have their own objections to the plan he outlined. Hamas, he noted, opposes a two-state solution. Palestinian leaders, he asserted, must not promote the rejection of Israel’s right to exist through their education systems. And Israel, he said, has moved toward de facto annexation of land claimed by Palestinians for a future state. Overall, Blinken was unusually critical of Israel and its actions in Gaza compared to his prior comments. At one point, he chided it for having “systematically undermined the capacity and legitimacy of the only viable alternative to Hamas, the Palestinian Authority.” MUSK, NO MUSKING: Australian Prime Minister ANTHONY ALBANESE has a sharp warning for tech mogul ELON MUSK: don’t dare meddle in upcoming elections in the land down under. As our own SEB STARCEVIC reports, Albanese warned that Australia would enforce foreign interference laws if Musk attempts to mirror his actions in the U.S. and U.K. to promote favored politicians and parties. In recent years, Musk helped bankroll Trump’s 2024 election campaign and the far-right Reform Party in the United Kingdom. “We have foreign interference laws in this country and Australian elections are a matter for Australians,” he told Australian newspaper The Age. ICYMI — KYLE CHENEY and JOSH GERSTEIN, POLITICO: Trump has not been exonerated, special counsel JACK SMITH declares in final report IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24,@HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TRUMP EYES NEW CT CHIEF: Former hard-right congressional candidate JOE KENT is the leading contender to be the next head of the National Counterterrorism Center, two people familiar with the transition told JOHN SAKELLARIADIS and DANIEL LIPPMAN. Kent, an Army Special Forces veteran who briefly served at the CIA, has been working for the landing team in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Nat Sec Daily previously reported. After leaving government, he ran two unsuccessful bids for Congress in Washington state, despite receiving endorsements from MATT GAETZ, MICHAEL FLYNN and Trump. Kent did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But one of the two people said he “understands the need for homeland protection and will be a supportive partner to Tulsi as she tries to reorient the intelligence enterprise to meet today's current threats.” The transition team did not immediately reply to a request for comment. A RINGER FOR TULSI: A surprise constituency is opting to throw its weight behind Tulsi Gabbard’s uphill bid to become the country’s top spy: the National Sheriffs’ Association. In a letter sent Tuesday to Sens. TOM COTTON (R-Ark.) and MARK WARNER (D-Va.), the local law enforcement organization makes its case for endorsing Trump’s pick for Director of National Intelligence — something it has never done before. The National Sheriff’s Association represents more than 3,000 U.S. sheriffs nationwide. “Ms. Gabbard has demonstrated a commitment to addressing the critical disconnect between our intelligence agencies and local law enforcement in preparing for sophisticated and pervasive threats,” reads the letter. ICYMI — RATCLIFFE SHERPA GETS NIXED: MICHAEL ALLEN, a longtime Republican national security expert, was recently ousted as the “sherpa” for CIA director nominee JOHN RATCLIFFE because he had co-hosted a campaign fundraiser for LIZ CHENEY, as Daniel reports.
| | TAKEDOWN: The Justice Department and the FBI on Tuesday announced the completion of an effort that deleted malware linked to the Chinese government from infecting more than 4,200 U.S.-based computers. As our own MAGGIE MILLER writes in, the operation involved the use of nine court warrants allowing the agencies to delete PlugX malware off U.S. devices running Microsoft Windows that had been infected since August. The French government is also looking into the use of the PlugX malware, and opened its own investigation into the issue. According to the affidavit made public by the Justice Department Tuesday, the so-called Twill Typhoon hacking group also used the PlugX malware to target European shipping companies last year, “several European governments” between 2021 and 2023, governments across the Indo-Pacific and Chinese dissident groups. EUROPE’S US AI CHIP HEADACHE: European partners are chafing at U.S. plans to impose new export restrictions on artificial intelligence computer chips — a plan that excludes some EU countries, as our own PIETER HAECK reports. Europeans say it only adds to the feeling they cannot depend on Washington to support them in the fight against China. “[It’s] another wake-up call given to Europe,” said PHILIPPE NOTTON, the chief executive officer of French AI chips designer Sipearl. “Some European countries can no longer rely on the U.S.”
| | BIG BUDGET SHIFT URGED: A new report commissioned by MICHAEL BLOOMBERG urges the Pentagon to redirect money from older weapons systems toward buying more cutting-edge technology, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports (for Pros!). The study, led by retired Marine Commandant Gen. DAVID BERGER, urges the Pentagon to bolster the defense industrial base to quickly develop new tech. The report calls the prospects of a significant budget increase "highly unlikely" and proposes the Pentagon shed 15 percent of its current budget from legacy weapons to invest in new technology. The authors argue the Pentagon and Congress must move immediately to begin shifting funds and freeing up acquisitions of emerging technology to address urgent threats. "I think we burned up all the candle, all the daylight that we had. We had a lead. It's gone," Berger said in an interview. "So we can't wait and talk about this for two or three years, because the gap is just going to grow."
| | HEGSETH’S HOT SEAT HEARING: Democrats on the Senate Armed Services Committee wasted no time excoriating Trump’s pick for Defense secretary, PETE HEGSETH. At a blockbuster hearing on Capitol Hill today, Hegseth pledged to be a “change agent” within the Pentagon. But Democrats threw the gauntlet at the former Fox News host, focusing on his qualifications and prior controversial comments. Top Democratic Sen. JACK REED of Rhode Island flat out said he did not feel that Hegseth was “qualified to meet the overwhelming demands of this job.” Meanwhile, Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN of New Hampshire and KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND of New York bashed Hegseth’s prior comments on women servicemembers. Shaheen quoted comments Hegseth made on a podcast episode last year in which he reiterated his opposition to women in combat roles. “I’m straight up just saying we should not have women in combat roles,” he said on the podcast. “It hasn’t made us more effective. Hasn’t made us more lethal. Has made fighting more complicated.” “What I'm confused about Mr. Hegseth is, which is it?” Shaheen asked. “Why should women in our military, if you were the secretary of Defense, believe that they would have a fair shot at an equal opportunity to rise through the ranks if, on the one hand, you say that women are not competent, they make our military less effective, and on the other hand, you say, ‘Oh no, now that I've been nominated to be the secretary of Defense, I've changed my view.’”
| | MORE HEARING FIREWORKS: Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) took one of the sharpest jabs at Hegseth during the fiery confirmation hearing, tying the SecDef hopeful and his oath of office to his string of reported infidelities. “I assume that in each of your weddings, you've pledged to be faithful to your wife. You've taken an oath to do that, haven't you?” Kaine asked Hegseth. Hegseth responded: “Senator, as I’ve acknowledged to everyone in this committee, I’m not a perfect person. I’m not claiming to be.”
| | | | — PHILIP LUCK has joined the Center for Strategic and International Studies as Scholl chair in international business and director of the economics program. He previously was deputy chief economist at the State Department. — MEGAN DOHERTY is now vice president for programs at the Wilson Center. She was previously deputy assistant administrator at the U.S. Agency for International Development, a staffer on the National Security Council and Mercy Corps’ senior director for policy and advocacy. — RYAN MAJERUS is now a partner on King & Spalding’s international trade team. He most recently was acting assistant secretary for enforcement and compliance at the Commerce Department. — ZACH VOLPE has joined the office of the Chair of the Joint Chiefs as a congressional strategist and research specialist supporting Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. BROWN and the Joint Staff. He was previously a non-designated staffer for the Senate Armed Services Committee. — JEFF NAFT is now communications director for the Senate Banking Committee. He most recently was communications director for the House Intelligence Committee and previously worked for House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE and Rep. FRENCH HILL (R-Ark.).
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: MARCO RUBIO isn’t likely to last long as secretary of State — SARAH YAGER, Foreign Affairs: How Biden failed on human rights — BRENDA ESTEFAN and JOSÉ CARLOS RODRÍGUEZ PUEBLITA, Americas Quarterly: China ties could be a liability for Mexico under Trump 2.0
| | — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 9 a.m.: A hearing on the nomination of Gov. KRISTI NOEM to be Homeland Security secretary — Senate Judiciary Committee, 9:30 a.m.:A hearing on the nomination of PAM BONDI to be attorney general of the United States — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: A hearing on the nomination of Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) to be secretary of State — Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 10 a.m.: A hearing on the nomination of JOHN RATCLIFFE to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: A discussion with U.N. Ambassador LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD on "U.S.-Africa Relations" — Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 11 a.m.: A discussion with CISA Director JEN EASTERLY on “Infrastructure Security in the Cyber Age" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Meeting DOD's innovation challenge: Adapting and scaling cutting-edge technology to enhance modernization — Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.: The future of Russian energy influence in Europe Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who always tries to take credit for the accomplishments of this newsletter. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who deserves all the credit for our accomplishments despite his humility. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
