| | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Sue Allan | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. Today on the POLITICO Canada agenda: → NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY is in D.C., where he was quick to catch up with Premier DANIELLE SMITH. → MICKEY DJURIC is en route to Montebello, Quebec, where the Trudeau Cabinet is gathering. → MIKE BLANCHFIELD has his eyes on the executive order onslaught. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | 
Due to cold temperatures forecasted in D.C. today, the inauguration will be held indoors for just the third time in U.S. history. | AP | MS. SMITH GOES TO WASHINGTON — DANIELLE SMITH is counting down to the end of the JUSTIN TRUDEAU era — literally. In an interview with Playbook at a D.C. hotel on Sunday, Smith showed us her phone: 1 month, 17 days, 9 hours, 1 minute and 7 seconds. As she made the rounds in Washington ahead of Inauguration Day, Alberta's premier was aggressively making the case for her province's oil and gas. In conversation with Playbook, she spoke about her weekend at Mar-a-Lago, DONALD TRUMP's 51st-state jokes and her mic-drop at last week's first ministers' meeting. — The elephant in the room: When Trudeau gathered the premiers in Ottawa to hash out a retaliatory response in the case of devastating tariffs, Smith called in from a Panama vacation. She later withheld Alberta's support for a joint communique. Ottawa has refused to exclude energy exports from a potential retaliatory package. Smith is taking heat for walking away from the table, but insists she put in an effort. "We come into these meetings, we try to develop a consensus, and then as soon as we leave the meeting, they start threatening about cutting off the energy supply and applying Canadian tariffs," she says. For what it's worth, every other premier signed the communique — even Saskatchewan's SCOTT MOE, whose province also churns out oil and gas. "That's kind of what we've come to expect from this particular leader,” Smith said of Trudeau. “He's only got 49 days left, so we're going to make sure he doesn't torch the relationship with the United States in the meantime." Cue the countdown reveal. — Double or nothing: The premier says tariffs or export caps on oil and gas are impossible. "It's a terrible strategy to go to the table and threaten something that there's no possibility of doing," she says. "There's no possibility that we would restrict our energy supply to our dearest friend and trading partner." Smith instead wants to eventually double energy exports to the U.S. — Trump 101: Smith says she interacted with Trump at Mar-a-Lago a couple of times during her recent visit. Podcaster and author JORDAN PETERSON and celebrity entrepreneur KEVIN O'LEARY were also in the room. In conversation with the president-elect, Smith says she heard a "positive" response on the topic of energy imports. Asked what she learned about how he does business, she alluded to frequent trips to Washington scheduled on her calendar. "[Trump] really is a relationship builder, and we need to have a relationship with this administration," she says. "So that's why I'm here. It's not just one-off meetings. It's the first of what I hope will be many." — About that joke: Smith thinks Trump keeps returning to the 51st state joke because of the way Canadians have responded. "I don't want to waste a lot of time talking about things that are never going to happen," she says. But Smith has a joke of her own. "Here's what I do say: It would be adding a state like California that would vote Democrat, and there'd never be another Republican in the White House. And then it's: 'Oh, really?'" — Key meetings: Smith met up with Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) at a Florida pre-inauguration ball on Saturday. (Inauguration season is all about the parties. Smith's team headed to the Texas ball last night at the Hilton.) Like almost every Canadian in town, Smith will join the party hosted by Amb. KIRSTEN HILLMAN today at the embassy, just down the road from the U.S. Capitol where Trump will be sworn in. She's lined up post-inauguration meetings with senators, congressional reps and governors. | | | | Power shifts, razor-thin margins, and a high-stakes agenda. We’ve transformed our coverage—more reporters, more timely insights, and unmatched policy scoops. From leadership offices to committee rooms, caucus meetings, and beyond, our expert reporting keeps you ahead of the decisions that matter. Subscribe to our Inside Congress newsletter today. | | | | | | | Talk of the town | |
AIR BUBBLE — When Playbook strolled into the Ottawa airport's U.S. departures lounge on Sunday morning, we encountered a supergroup of cross-border influencers and policy geeks plotting Inauguration Day strategy — aka reception planning.
→ A spotted sampling: The Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Google, the Center for Israel and Jewish Affairs, the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers' Association. Also seen departing from Gate 12: CTV's VASSY KAPELOS. We soaked up D.C. commute tips from StrategyCorp's GARRY KELLER: Take note of security closures at Metro stations, including near the Canadian embassy. Leave time to get around. — Everybody's first stop: The Canadian American Business Council's happy hour at the City Club of Washington, where conversations were strictly off the record. Among the VIPs: Ambo KIRSTEN HILLMAN and Trade Minister MARY NG — and much of that earlier flight from Ottawa. TARIFF MAN'S WORLD — It's not entirely clear how PIERRE POILIEVRE would deal with DONALD TRUMP's tariff threat. One of his rookie MPs, JAMIL JIVANI, is in Washington for the inauguration. Jivani is a well-known pal of VP-elect JD VANCE, but says he’s in town to "begin the steps in what will be a long and laborious process to build and strengthen" cross-border ties. — Another take: RANDY HOBACK, a veteran CPC MP and cross-border watcher, recently declared the era of free-trade expansionism all but dead. "The post-war period of reducing tariffs on imports worldwide — including on U.S. allies and partners — has been relegated to the past," Hoback wrote on Substack. "It is no longer a question of ‘if’ tariffs will be raised but ‘how’ and ‘when.’" | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will attend the Cabinet retreat.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will headline an evening party fundraiser at a private residence in Westmount, Quebec. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will hold a press conference in Vancouver at 10 a.m. with climate activist ZAIN HAQ. — Playbook has not seen itineraries for Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET or NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH. | | COUNTDOWNS | | Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer. — Sitting days until summer: 49 max. — Calendar days until Statistics Canada's next inflation data: 1… The Bank of Canada's next interest rate announcement: 9 … The House's scheduled return: 63 … The foreign interference public inquiry's final report deadline: 11 … The PM's deadline to call a by-election in Halifax, N.S.: 41. Dates to watch on the race to replace JUSTIN TRUDEAU. — Calendar days until the candidate entry deadline: 3 … Membership registration deadline: 7 … Voting day: 48. Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list? Tell us! | | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | | 
President-elect Donald Trump speaks during his pre-inauguration victory rally at Capitol One Arena in Washington, on Jan. 19. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | EXECUTIVE ORDER ONSLAUGHT — Trump plans to enter the White House with a show of executive force. POLITICO’s BENJAMIN GUGGENHEIM and MEREDITH LEE HILL report that executive orders Trump plans to unleash today include a 35-page energy omnibus. POLITICO has also compiled some of the major actions the Trump White House is expected to announce during his first days in office in immigration, justice, foreign policy, trade and more. LEGAL CHALLENGE — In a ruling released Saturday night, Federal Court Chief Justice PAUL CRAMPTON announced that on Feb. 13 and 14 the court will hear a legal challenge of Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s decision to pull the plug on Parliament. JIM BRONSKILL of The Canadian Press reports on the lawsuit from Nova Scotia residents DAVID MACKINNON and ARIS LAVRANOS, who’ve requested a declaration that Parliament has not been prorogued. JAMES MANSON, who represents the plaintiffs, told “Canadian Lawyer” earlier this month that the lawsuit poses questions never asked before: “What is the power of the prime minister or the executive, in our system of government, to suspend parliament? Are there limits to that power? And if there are limits, what are they?”MacKinnon and Lavranos argue that proroguing Parliament is obstructing Ottawa’s ability to respond to Trump 2.0. WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM — POLITICO’s SUZANNE LYNCH reports that thousands of World Economic Forum regulars are descending on the exclusive Swiss ski resort of Davos with a spring in their step, electrified by Trump’s return. This year’s gathering begins today and Lynch writes: “The Davos Man has come in from the cold.” Trump is expected to address the forum via video on Thursday. WEF officials say they expect a “broad footprint” from the new administration to jet in later in the week. ELON MUSK may even drop by. — Stay in the loop: POLITICO’s Global Playbook will publish daily from Davos at 7 a.m. local time. POLITICO’s “Power Play” podcast, hosted by ANNE MCELVOY, will share interviews and analysis each day. | | | | New Year. New Washington. New Playbook. With intensified congressional coverage and even faster delivery of policy scoops, POLITICO’s reimagined Playbook Newsletter ensures you’re always ahead of the conversation. Sign up today. | | | | | | | LEADERSHIP RACE | |
ON THE CAMPAIGN — The race to replace PMJT has so far been dominated by one name: DONALD TRUMP.
During the launch of her leadership campaign on Sunday, CHRYSTIA FREELAND described Trump’s threat of imposing a 25 percent on Canadian exports as an “existential threat” to the country. “He has spoken clearly and repeatedly about making our Canada the 51st state. And he has threatened to use economic coercion to do so. We do have to stop him — and we will,” she said. MARK CARNEY, the former head of two central banks, argued in his launch last week that he’s best qualified to negotiate with Trump. KARINA GOULD, who kicked off her campaign Sunday in Burlington, Ontario, repeated a couple of times through the day, “I'm not sure that journalists and central bankers are the kind of people that Donald Trump listens to." The Liberal Party will choose its new leader on March 9. — In case you missed it: On Friday, Energy and Natural Resources Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON joined the growing list of Trudeau Cabinet ministers not in the running. Finance Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE have all said they instead need to focus their efforts on Trump. — Stop and go: Freeland’s launch was preempted by news of Joly’s endorsement of Carney. The event in her riding was then interrupted almost a dozen times by protesters. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
More Canadian coverage of the arrival of Trump 2.0:
— “Trump’s presidency — and the possibility that it heralds a grand design of hemispheric integration — makes the future of Canada as an independent state a live, existential question once again,” MICHAEL IGNATIEFF writes in the Financial Times. — The Globe’s JASON KIRBY suggests oil and critical minerals could be Canada’s key bargaining chips to fend off Trump. — Cutting off oil is Canada's nuclear option. EVAN DYER of CBC News considers what it would mean if it happens. — The NYT’s IAN AUSTEN and IAN WILLMS report from Windsor, Ontario, on fears in the border city about Trump’s tariff threat. | | PROZONE | |
For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by SUE ALLAN and MIKE BLANCHFIELD: Ottawa says it's ready to drop retaliatory measures.
More Pro analysis: With reporting from Ottawa, Washington, Brussels and London and graphics by PAROMA SONI: Escalate to de-escalate: How the world will deal with Trump’s trade offensive. In other news for Pro readers: — How Trump could make good on his tariff threats. — Get ready for Trump’s executive order onslaught. — What to expect from Trump’s Day 1 orders on climate and energy. — UK’s Starmer calls for Trump trade talks. — House Republicans mull including 10 percent tariff in reconciliation bill. | | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to McMillan Vantage’s STEVIE O’BRIEN, former Prince Edward Island Premier ROBERT GHIZ, and to ANDREA BAILLIE, editor-in-chief of The Canadian Press.
Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: U.S. Ambassador DAVID COHEN’s farewell: “Make no mistake: the partnership between the United States and Canada is crucial— and it is, and will remain, enduring,” he shared on X. “Thank you, Canada! Merci, Canada! Until we meet again.” At DONALD TRUMP JR.’s inauguration party at the Conrad hotel Friday night: KIRSTEN HILLMAN, ambassador of Canada. — On “Saturday Night Live,” tariffs caught the attention of the writers room — even cracking the show's pre-inauguration cold open. A mock MSNBC panel helmed by SARAH SHERMAN in the role of RACHEL MADDOW started to rhyme off key trade stats — a Canadian advocate's dream come true. For, like, five seconds. "I'm just going to take the reins and talk about a real story, okay? Trump's tariffs for Canada? Look. Quebec supplies two-thirds of our raw aluminum. And when you consider the importance of hydroelectric power — oh my god. I can't even finish. That is so boring. I'm sorry." Noted: A birthday reflection from former Cabmin SEAMUS O’REGAN: “The most important thing is to keep the most important thing the most important thing.” In newly published polling commissioned by Elections Canada, 76 percent of respondents in Toronto-St. Paul's claimed to have voted in last June's by-election. Actual turnout: 43.5 percent. (The pollster blamed the discrepancy on a pair of factors: actual voters may be more likely to participate in surveys, and others may not want to admit staying home.) Media mentions: The Ottawa Citizen is on the hunt for a journalist who can cover, “well, just about everything.” | | On the Hill | |
Parliament is scheduled to return March 24.
| | TRIVIA | |
Friday's answer: GEORGE W. BUSH was pranked in Michigan by “This Hour Has 22 Minutes.”
Props to LAURE HOURDEBAIGT, MALCOLM MCKAY, LAURA JARVIS, TRISTAN DENNISTON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, RAY DEL BIANCO, MARC SHAW, JOHN ECKER, PATRICK DION, CHRIS RANDS and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Today’s question: Name the prime minister who will be included in Canada Post’s 2025 stamp lineup. Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing tomorrow's Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
