Hochul’s headwinds

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Jan 14, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Nick Reisman, Jeff Coltin and Emily Ngo

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Kathy Hochul stands at a wood podium.

Gov. Kathy Hochul will deliver her fourth State of the State address today. | Darren McGee/Office of Governor Kathy Hochul

Low approval ratings. Rivals circling her in the water. Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Gov. Kathy Hochul’s problems are numerous.

And when the governor unveils her State of the State today at Albany’s iconic Egg performing arts venue, she’ll be doing so with an eye toward addressing issues that bedeviled her fellow Democrats in last year’s elections.

Hochul’s fourth State of the State today will focus on boosting public safety and reducing the cost of living in New York.

She’s embracing a package of proposals popular with voters: Expanding a free school lunch program for students, doling out tax rebates and preventing private equity firms from snapping up homes.

To get these measures over the finish line, she will have to persuade the Democrats who dominate the state Legislature to agree.

The task appears simple, but already fault lines have opened on top-tier issues.

Democrats are not yet ready to embrace an expansion of involuntary hospitalization for people with severe mental illnesses — a proposal that’s meant to boost subway safety after headline-grabbing crimes in recent weeks.

“We are not ignoring the crisis, but if we have no place to direct people, it is a problem as well,” Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins told reporters on Monday. “So we have to continue on all fronts to make sure that not only are people cared for as needed, but there are resources for that as well.”

The speech is the start of a crucial year for Hochul, who struggles with low poll numbers.

Half of New York voters believe the state is heading in the wrong direction and two House members — Democrat Ritchie Torres and Republican Mike Lawler — are gearing up for likely challenges. (Lawler today will hold a news conference with GOP legislative leaders in Albany to offer a pre-buttal of the governor’s address before she takes the stage across the street.)

Her anemic support from voters has become chapter and verse in Albany: A Siena College poll last month found her 39 percent favorable rating at a statistical tie with President-elect Donald Trump, who overperformed in deep blue New York.

Democrats have pondered privately whether she is politically strong enough to lead the ticket next year.

“Approval ratings are sometimes reflective of what’s going on in the whole state, so that goes on the governor’s bill,” former Gov. David Paterson told Playbook. “Her strongest influence is her personality.”

Hochul is an outwardly cheerful politician who enjoys glad-handing. She is also a formidable fundraiser and has moved to bolster the infrastructure of the state Democratic Party — a push that aided down-ballot candidates last year and could yet help Hochul in her own reelection in 2026.

But she will be tested by an incoming Trump administration that could make life difficult for Democratic officials with an aggressive reshaping of policy.

Republicans are buoyed by Lee Zeldin’s competitive race against Hochul in 2022 and are eager to capitalize on Democratic woes with voters.

GOP officials believe they can leverage a mix of problems that face New York — high taxes, stagnate population and ongoing crime concerns. And they expect Hochul can’t reverse those trends.

“The governor has a lot of issues that need to be addressed for New Yorkers to give some faith that somehow this state is going to turn the corner,” Republican state Sen. Mark Walczyk said. “That’s a monumental task.” — Nick Reisman

IT’S TUESDAY. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.

 

A message from RHOAR NYC:

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WHERE’S KATHY? In Albany delivering the State of the State address.

WHERE’S ERIC? In Albany attending the State of the State.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “There’s been a lot of attention now on how to involuntarily remove more people from the streets, which is really a backasswards way of dealing with this problem.” — David Giffen of the Coalition for the Homeless, as Democrats both left-leaning and centrist begin to embrace the policy, POLITICO reported.

Eric Adams leaves a press conference.

Mayor Eric Adams has a policy agenda that he needs to get through Albany. | Yuki Iwamura/AP

BAILING ON BAIL: Mayor Eric Adams has quickly changed his tune on demanding further changes to the state’s bail law reforms.

Ahead of his trip to Albany today for Hochul’s speech, Adams made clear that maintaining a good relationship with his fellow moderate trumps his desire to roll back bail reforms beyond the governor’s 2023 tweaks.

“People always use bail as this magic terminology,” the police captain-turned-mayor told reporters Monday — omitting of course that he has been one of those “people.”

“Recidivism is the issue for me. Not bail. I think that they did a good job. They heard us. Speaker Heastie and the majority leader heard us when we talked about it,” he said when asked if he’ll be pressing state lawmakers to roll back bail reforms. “They made those adjustments. I'm focused on now just recidivism.”

Rewind the tape to Jan. 2, when he told POLITICO in an interview, “When you look at the numbers of people due to discovery and the reform of bail — you look at the number of repeaters who have repeatedly committed crimes, the numbers are unbelievable.”

“We’re not talking about reversing bail reform totally,” he said during the sit-down. Yet when asked to clarify whether he would try to push state lawmakers for changes to bail laws, Adams replied, “We’re going to do three areas: bail, discovery, mental health.”

Adams — or his aides — have since appeared to surmise that pressuring Hochul and legislative leaders to take on more changes to the 2019 bail reforms is a politically losing issue.

The shift is politically wise: The embattled mayor has few allies as solid as Hochul, who spared him after his federal indictment from any serious consideration of using her power to oust him. And even though Hochul and Adams are like-minded on policing, the governor likely has no interest in taking on that fight with the lawmakers who ushered in the reforms in the first place.

The mayor expressed confidence about getting his state legislative agenda passed. “We’re going to Albany with the wind — it’s in our sail. And it’s going to move us to land this plane and get it done,” he said Monday. “We think we’re going to get great stuff done this session.”

At least eight top aides will join him, City Hall told Playbook, including First Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, Schools Chancellor Melissa Aviles-Ramos and MWBE Czar Michael Garner. — Sally Goldenberg and Jeff Coltin

CITY HALL: THE LATEST

Mark Levine in New York.

Mark Levine is reporting a fundraising haul that will cement his leading position in the race for comptroller. | William Alatriste/NYC Council Media Unit

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Mark Levine’s comptroller campaign said he’s raised $727,207 and will have another $2.2 million in public matching funds coming in the next month — numbers that would cement his leading position in the citywide race.

The Manhattan borough president expects a $1.2 million matching funds payment to come this week and another $1 million in February.

Levine would be the first comptroller candidate to get the payment — though Justin Brannan said he expects $1.5 million in public funds in February. The City Council Finance Chair said he’s raised about $430,000 so far.

Ahead of the Wednesday filing deadline, Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar’s campaign said she’s raised about $400,000 so far and also expects to get more than $1.2 million in matching funds in February.

Levine delayed receipt of the matching funds payment last month, because “we didn’t need it,” campaign manager Matt Rubin said. But that also bought Levine another month to see if Comptroller Brad Lander would stay in the mayoral race, which he appears to be doing. — Jeff Coltin

MYRIE MONEY: Meanwhile, mayoral candidate Zellnor Myrie’s campaign says he’ll get as much as $2.4 million in matching funds in February. He’s raised $647,449 from more than 3,300 donors since kicking off fundraising last year.

Myrie’s fundraising trails that of other contenders like Lander and Scott Stringer, not to mention Adams, but a fundraising memo from his campaign argues the state Senator is outpacing where 2021 mayoral candidates Maya Wiley and Kathryn Garcia were at this point four years ago. — Jeff Coltin

RETURN OF THE KING: Andy King, who was expelled from the City Council in 2020 after being accused of harassment, retaliation and corruption, is trying to get his old seat back in the Northeast Bronx.

King filed on Wednesday to challenge City Council Member Kevin Riley’s reelection.

“I was just at an event with him last week,” Riley told Playbook. “And he said in front of everyone I was doing a good job. So this does come as a surprise.”

King tried to challenge Riley in 2023 too, but was knocked off the ballot in a court case. — Jeff Coltin

More from the city:

Adams wouldn’t push back if Trump moved to kill congestion pricing. (City & State)

Adams is hoping to score a coveted sit-down with Trump — and hinted he could even attend the upcoming inauguration. (New York Post)

Mamdani wants to roll back halal cart prices through permitting reform. (Eater)

 

A message from RHOAR NYC:

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State Sen. Julia Salazar, D-Brooklyn, debates state budget Bills during a legislative session in the Senate Chamber at the state Capitol in Albany.

State Sen. Julia Salazar is leading a push to close Marcy Correctional Facility. | Hans Pennink/AP

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: Fifty-six Democratic state lawmakers have backed the closure of Marcy Correctional Facility in a letter sent Monday to Hochul as the fallout from the killing of Robert Brooks continues.

Brooks, an inmate, was seen on a video released by Attorney General Letitia James being beaten by corrections officers at the prison. He later died.

The letter, obtained by Playbook, urged Hochul “to take steps to immediately close Marcy Correctional Facility” and pointed to last year’s state budget deal giving her the power to shutter the prison.

“It should send the message to other facilities in the system that this kind of violence and depraved behavior toward anybody, including incarcerated individuals is unacceptable,” Sen. Julia Salazar, the top Democrat on the Senate committee overseeing prisons, told Playbook.

Prison closures are often opposed by the rural communities that host the facility. Salazar pointed to nearby Midstate Correctional Facility that could soften the impact on the region’s economy.

“There’s a compelling case to close the facility and that it can be done responsibly without having a negative impact on the local population, the community or any of the individuals incarcerated there or any of the staff who currently work at Marcy,” Salazar said.

A spokesperson for the Department of Corrections and Community Supervision did not return a message seeking comment.

A push to close the prison has been growing among lawmakers since Brooks’ death in December. Hochul has pressed for changes at the prison in order to bolster inmate safety and removed the top official at the facility.

Her administration has also been willing to continue the decades-long trend of closing state prisons. Lawmakers and Hochul last year agreed to a closure plan that ultimately led to the closure of two prisons. — Nick Reisman

IT’S A BIRD, IT’S A PLANE, IT’S … A CDPAP AD: Home care advocates are launching their latest effort to get Hochul to change her mind on the contentious transition of the state’s home care — an aggressive pressure campaign from the skies on the most important day of the year for the governor.

The Alliance to Protect Home Care is shelling out six figures to have an airplane circle The Egg in Albany — the performance venue where Hochul is set to give her speech — with a large banner flying behind it that says “SOS: Save CDPAP Stop PPL.”

It’s the latest effort yet from the group which has spent millions to get Hochul to change her mind about the fate of the Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program, or CDPAP.

The program is currently orchestrated by over 600 fiscal intermediaries, companies that serve as Medicaid middlemen between the home care patient and the state. In a cost-cutting measure last year, Hochul ordered a single company, PPL, to act as the sole intermediary, putting the home care companies out of business.

The plane will be in the air from 11 a.m. to 3:30 p.m. today. A digital billboard truck will also circle the Statehouse and the Executive Mansion, blaring a 30-second ad from the group. (There will also be billboards and TV ads from the group today.)

"Whether it's a truck, billboard, or even an airplane, we are making sure Governor Hochul and all of Albany hear the testimonies of the elderly and disabled New Yorkers whose lives are at risk with PPL,” said Bryan O'Malley, the executive director of the alliance.

Sam Spokony, a spokesperson for Hochul, blasted the group over its aerial ad.

“These middlemen have already spent millions and millions on lobbyists and ad blitzes — and now they’re using taxpayer-funded profits on this stunt too?” Spokony said. “I thought they were supposed to be focused on home care! Something doesn’t quite add up there — but we’ll stay focused on advancing much-needed reforms that will protect CDPAP home care users and caregivers, while also protecting New York taxpayers from companies that spend money from Medicaid on airplanes and video trucks.” — Jason Beeferman

DECONGESTANT: The MTA says it was right: charging people more to drive south of 60th Street in Manhattan is prompting fewer people to drive south of 60th Street.

MTA officials said they are seeing about an 8 percent decrease in vehicles driving into Manhattan’s central business district, plus a staggering 20 to 40 percent decrease in travel times across bridges and tunnels that bring commuters in from Brooklyn, Queens and New Jersey.

“It has been a very good week here in New York, just look out the window, there is less traffic, quieter streets — and I think everybody’s seen it,” Juliette Michaelson, the transit agency’s deputy chief of policy and external relations, said during a detailed briefing for reporters on Monday.

The MTA compared traffic since the tolling began on Jan. 5 to typical traffic in past Januaries.

They also found bus trip times have improved but there hasn’t been a meaningful uptick in crowding on buses or subways. Many unknowns remain and officials will keep collecting, slicing and dicing the data. Ry Rivard

WINE SOME MORE: A report commissioned by a group composed of business groups and grocery stores that want to sell wine found small liquor retailers wouldn’t be hurt by the change.

The New York State of Wine Coalition’s report reviewed states where grocers are allowed to sell wine and found liquor stores there “continue to thrive.”

It’s an argument grocery store owners will try to advance as they press for the long-sought measure this year at the state Capitol.

The bill has struggled to gain traction for decades in Albany. But the latest effort for wine in grocery stores comes after the state recently approved consumer-friendly changes, like allowing to-go drinks from restaurants. — Nick Reisman  

More from Albany:

The overwhelming majority of New York state residents back a law to ban mask-wearing in public during protests. (New York Post)

Hochul will propose a $400 million spending plan to give downtown Albany a facelift. (Times Union)

New York cannabis regulators have been hit with another injunction blocking warrantless searches of hemp businesses. (POLITICO Pro)

KEEPING UP WITH THE DELEGATION

Chuck Schumer speaks during a press conference.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is signaling he wants members to take an aggressive approach with cabinet nominees. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

CONFIRMATION CRUNCH: Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is privately urging his members to use upcoming hearings on Trump’s nominees to hold their “feet to the fire,” according to a Senate Democratic official, POLITICO reports.

Schumer had told members that they should hold Trump’s nominees “accountable” for his agenda, particularly as it relates to the working class and families, the official said.

The minority leader’s guidance, given to members during a closed-door lunch last Tuesday, comes as the Senate kicks off a marathon run of confirmation hearings this week. All of the early attention will be on Pete Hegseth, Trump’s pick to lead the Defense Department.

Hegseth will appear today before the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Rep. Pat Ryan told Playbook he believes Democrats should stay coordinated as the confirmation process plays out.

“I’ve been really very concerned about Hegseth, Gabbard, Patel to a certain degree,” Ryan, a U.S. Army veteran, listed, referencing Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel. (On Monday night, Ryan also posted a list of questions that should be asked of Hegseth.)

“There’s a need for a coordinated all-hands-on-deck, different people and folks with their relevant expertise focusing on making the case against really harmful nominees, especially given the importance of the Department of Defense,” Ryan said. — Jordain Carney and Emily Ngo

More from the delegation:

A nonprofit closely aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is preparing its first major investment in the 2026 election. (Axios)

Reps. Jerry Nadler and Mike Lawler lead a bipartisan push to support Israeli airlines’ bids to carry direct flights between NYC and Tel Aviv. (their letter)

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) describes Trump’s support for raising the SALT cap, saying he’s a “New Yorker at the end of the day.” (NY1)

NEW YORK STATE OF MIND

The MTA is pointing to some early success with the congestion pricing toll program. (Newsday)

Cable provider Optimum has dropped dozens of channels amid a carriage dispute. (LoHud)

The owner of Carrie Bradshaw’s West Village apartment as depicted on “Sex and the City” is trying to keep tourists away. (Gothamist)

 

A message from RHOAR NYC:

When New York City passed and began enforcing its overly strict short-term rental law, many hard-working families who relied on income from sharing their homes were financially devastated. After a year of advocacy and thousands of letters into City Hall from homeowners across NYC’s five boroughs, the New York City Council recently introduced Bill 1107 to restore short-term rental rights to registered one- and two-family homeowners who live in their homes. Passing Bill 1107 will mean increasing the economic tools available to everyday New Yorkers to maintain and stay in their homes, creating stability for the city’s most vulnerable homeowners and the local communities and businesses that depend on them. Learn more at www.rhoar.org.

 
SOCIAL DATA

Edited by Daniel Lippman

WATCH IT: Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Nydia Velázquez joined fellow Puerto Rican superstar Bad Bunny for an album listening party Sunday at Toñita’s social club in Williamsburg. (Complex)

MAKING MOVES: Adams promoted Chief of Staff Camille Joseph Varlack and Intergovernmental Affairs Director Tiffany Raspberry to deputy mayor Monday. Both will keep their current roles too — though Varlack will also be getting oversight of the Department of Citywide Administrative Services, which is being investigated for leasing practices, POLITICO has reported.

DCAS used to be under First Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer’s portfolio, but “there’s no specific conflict” with her overseeing it, City Hall spokesperson Amaris Cockfield told Playbook, it’s just that she had a lot of agencies under her purview.

Raspberry will be getting a nearly $28,000 salary boost with promotion, while Varlack already makes the standard deputy mayor salary of $287,663. — Jeff Coltin

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Maureen Dowd Susan GlasserShepard Smith … Former NYC Schools Chancellor David Banks … Parkside’s Stephanie Olcese Michael SkellyFrank RainesMargaret Chadbourn … Citi’s Ben KoltunWilliam Yeo of Burson … Doug Michelman Sinead CaseyJeffrey Webb Yael SheinfeldAndrew Baris (WAS MONDAY): Julia Louis-Dreyfus ... Barry B. Stein 

Missed Monday’s New York Playbook PM? We forgive you. Read it here.

 

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