Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.
In today's edition:
→ The premiers have a date in Ottawa.
→ The PM is heading to Washington.
→ Sometimes tweets are endorsements.
FIRST THING'S FIRST
FAMILY REUNION — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has invited Canada’s premiers to Ottawa next Wednesday to discuss Canada-U.S. relations. Ontario Premier DOUG FORD, chair of the Council of the Federation, requested the meeting on Monday. Location is TBD.
HALLWAY CONVERSATION
CABINET FOCUS — When Canada's premiers arrive in town, they might find themselves across the table from a prime minister squarely focused on their top priority.
JUSTIN TRUDEAU doesn't have to think much about the race to pick his successor or the election campaign he will no longer lead.
MARCI SURKES, the PM's former executive director of Cabinet and policy affairs, tells Playbook that Trudeau can sharpen his priorities — and narrow those of his front bench.
— Chaos around every corner: Less than two weeks out from DONALD TRUMP's inauguration, the Liberals are on the cusp of a leadership contest, welcoming a new mix of shuffled ministers, dealing with staffing uncertainty beneath the surface, and preparing for an imminent general election.
"At least in modern history, there really has not been a series of cascading events that have led a Cabinet or a ministry to this point where it is so clearly going to be distracted from the ordinary work of governing," says Surkes, now chief strategy officer at Compass Rose. "It is extremely difficult to imagine how the next few months will play out."
— Cut the workload: Cabinet could lose several ministers with leadership ambitions. The rest of the table will be left to manage competing domestic and global crises.
A core group of six or seven ministers "should be strongly advised, if not asked, to refrain from participating in the leadership race so as to focus on the business of the people," Surkes suggests.
That inner core could focus on the Canada-U.S. file. "You need one strong cohort doing that, and as many others as you can hold together doing the rest of the work of the Government of Canada," she says.
— Non-negotiables: Trudeau could end up leading a leaner Cabinet. "You have to have a minister of finance in place. You have to ensure that line departments are all appropriately staffed, so that the authorities for decision-making remain intact," Surkes says.
— Nip and tuck: The PM could also reduce Cabinet committee workloads. The current roster includes nine committees, three subcommittees, two working groups and the ad-hoc incident response group.
"[Trudeau] can shrink down the size of the cabinet committees so that there are only one or two," says Surkes. "There can be Canada-U.S. and one other one. You can materially focus the work of Cabinet."
— More from Surkes: Catch PAUL WELLS's podcast, out this morning, where the topic of conversation is the recent history of the Liberal Party.
DRIVING THE DAY
NOISY RELATIONSHIP — Team Canada's Ottawa wing has its work cut out for it.
President-elect DONALD TRUMP is now promising to apply “economic force” to take control of Canada.
“Canada and the United States, that would really be something. You get rid of that artificially drawn line and take a look at what that looks like,” Trump said Tuesday. “And it would also be much better for national security. Don’t forget, we basically protect Canada.”
— Lion finds his courage: For months, Trudeau dismissed Trump’s remarks about Canada becoming the 51st state as a joke. But following his resignation as party leader on Monday, the PM found his edge.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Trudeau shot back on X.
18: The number of days between Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE first rejecting Canada joining the U.S. and the PM finally saying so explicitly (though he nodded cheekily to Trump's threat over the holidays).
— Team Canada up in the air: Trump’s repeated promise to impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods is a constant source of uncertainty for Canadians workers and businesses.
Cabinet could soon be in flux as key ministers mull leadership runs. Even the PM doesn’t know what a leadership race will mean for a Canada-U.S. Cabinet committee stacked with contenders. The committee already lost its chair, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, following her explosive exit from Cabinet last month.
On Monday, Trudeau sidestepped a question about whether ministers would have to leave Cabinet if they want his job. He promised his government remains focused on protecting Canadians’ interests. The Hill Times has more on this.
— For what it's worth: Immigration Minister MARC MILLER, a close friend of the PM, told CBC on Monday: “Intuitively, I think they would have to leave Cabinet.”
“I don’t know how we could get work done with someone that decided to stay. People would probably make it a political issue that they were leveraging their Cabinet (position),” he said on “Power & Politics.”
— Contenders and their contacts: Ministers who might vie for leadership ...
→ Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY, who maintains a friendship with Senate Budget Chair LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.).
→ Finance Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC, who along with Joly was liaising with Commerce Secretary nominee HOWARD LUTNICK and Interior Secretary nominee DOUG BURGUM.
→ Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, who has forged connections with congressional lawmakers.
— Lots to discuss: Liberal MPs gather today for the first time since Trudeau’s resignation. Now that the elephant in the room has been addressed, MPs say the caucus meeting is expected to focus on leadership contest rules and taking on Poilievre.
The Liberal Party wouldn’t say if its president, SACHIT MEHRA, will speak to caucus — as some MPs hope, but said rules for the upcoming leadership race will “take some time.”
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is scheduled to attend the national caucus meeting. Later, he will attend an event in the Greater Toronto Area commemorating the anniversary of the downing of Flight PS752. Trudeau finishes the day in Washington.
— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not released itineraries.
— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY has no public events.
For your radar
It's not just Donald Trump posting about Canada. X owner Elon Musk has thoughts. | Francis Chung/POLITICO
HOW DO YOU LIKE THEM POPULIST APPLES —ELON MUSK was up past midnight on Tuesday watching Poilievre's greatest political hits on X.
Musk, a major player in the incoming Trump administration, shared several videos of Poilievre — and described the Tory leader's political style as “masterpiece” and “perfectly articulated.”
— Thumbs up: Musk also spent some time hitting posts with replies.
Trump supporter and venture capitalist SHAUN MAGUIRE said this of Poilievre: “Canada is about to flip from being the world’s laughing stock to having a JAVIER MILEI level GOAT as PM. The Trump Effect.”
→ Musk said: “Yes.”
Another user said: “This guy Pierre Poilievre gets it” while sharing a video of him talking about inflation.
→ Musk said: 100 emoji.
— Don’t let the door hit you on the way out: Musk's Poilievre endorsement follows a series of posts in which he rejoiced in Trudeau’s resignation. “2025 is looking good,” Musk posted.
Birthdays: HBD to DEVON CUDDIHEY of the Dairy Farmers of Canada, journalist WENDY MESLEY and former MP KAREN REDMAN, now chair of the Waterloo region.
Hockey great DAVE HODGE is 80 today. “It’s hard to imagine WAYNE GRETZKY doing more to earn Canada’s praise and thanks, but there is one thing,” the retired sports announcer said on X on Tuesday. “He could tell his friend Donald Trump that the Canada insults need to stop.”
Noted: The Sun reports that the Longest Ballot Committee plans to target Poilievre, Freeland ridings in the next election.
Arrivals: Former Hill staffers CLAIRE SEABORN and MICHAEL CURRIE welcomed SILAS TROW CURRIE into the world on Monday in Toronto.
Movers and shakers: Rubicon Strategy and U.S.-based Capitol Counsel announced a "strategic partnership" on cross-border trade and government relations. Last year, the Ontario government enlisted Capitol Counsel's services to the tune of a $1.3 million contract.
KATIE DAVEY, formerly of the Public Policy Forum and the Pond-Deshpande Centre, has joined New Brunswick Premier SUSAN HOLT's office as principal secretary.
Media mentions: JOANNA SMITH is joining The Logic to report on the U.S.-Canada trade relationship.
Props to AHDITHYA VISWESWARAN, ALEX WELLSTEAD, FRED SAGEL, MALCOLM MCKAY, J.D.M. STEWART, NATHAN GORDON, JOHN DILLON, NOEL BREEN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SARA MAY, BOB PLAMONDON, ANTHONY VALENTI, DON NEWMAN, NANCI WAUGH, KEVIN BOSCH, ADAM SMITH, JEREMY WALLACE, RAY DEL BIANCO, ALEXIS CONRAD, MARCEL MARCOTTE.
Wednesday's question: On this day in 1948, who became the longest-serving prime minister in the British Commonwealth?
