Let the 2026 elections begin

Presented by Alibaba: Kimberly Leonard's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State
Jan 13, 2025 View in browser
 
POLITICO Florida Playbook Newsletter Header

By Kimberly Leonard and Gary Fineout

Presented by 

Alibaba

Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), left, and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) depart after a vote at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on May 17, 2024.

Reps. Cory Mills (R-Fla.), left, and Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) depart after a vote at the U.S. Capitol in Washington on May 17, 2024. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

Good morning and welcome to Monday.

Florida Republicans were largely in a celebratory mood when they gathered this weekend in Orlando for their annual meeting. The event was mostly centered around housekeeping — like picking a new chair for the next two years — happening just days before a large contingent will head to Washington for the inauguration of President-elect DONALD TRUMP.

But now that the calendar has flipped to 2025, the talk and whispers are turning to the future of the Republican Party in Florida. There’s already jockeying in the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. RON DESANTIS in 2026 — but first, DeSantis gets to make a potentially legacy-defining pick to fill Sen. MARCO RUBIO’s seat once he steps down to become Trump’s secretary of State.

Rep. BYRON DONALDS (R-Fla.), who recently hired the same pollster who worked for Trump (and other successful Republicans), brushed aside a question about his interest in the governor’s mansion. “There’s really not much to talk about,” Donalds said. “You know, our job is in D.C.”

Still, Rep. CORY MILLS acknowledged that he’s prepared to run for Rubio’s seat when it comes up on the 2026 ballot, regardless of who DeSantis appoints to the post. That’s a clear signal that several top jobs in Florida politics — governor, senator and Cabinet posts such as chief financial officer — are likely to have contentious and potentially heated GOP primaries.

And that, of course, leads to a crucial question: Will Trump take sides in these primaries? He has done so in the past, most notably during the 2018 governor’s race where he backed DeSantis over establishment favorite Agriculture Commissioner ADAM PUTNAM.

And if Trump weighs in, what will DeSantis do? Will the governor — who unsuccessfully ran for president against Trump — back different candidates than the leader of the national party?

One such clue will come with DeSantis’ pick for chief financial officer. The spot has come open because CFO JIMMY PATRONIS is resigning in order to run for the congressional seat that had been held by MATT GAETZ (R-Fla.). POLITICO previously reported that a leading contender for the appointment is state Sen. BLAISE INGOGLIA, a former state party chair and close ally to the governor. But state Sen. JOE GRUTERS — who has already been endorsed for CFO by Trump and has had a bumpy relationship with DeSantis — plans to run the job in 2026.

Gruters, who is also former state party chair and now national committeeman, said this about 2026: “The Trump slate will win. And you can quote me.”

— Gary Fineout 

WHERE’S RON? Gov. DeSantis holds a press conference at the Capitol in Tallahassee at 9:30 a.m.

Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.

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... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

THIS WEEK — Lawmakers are in Tallahassee for committee meetings to set the stage for several key policy areas ahead of session.

CAPITAL PUNISHMENT — “DeSantis signs first death warrant of 2025 for man convicted in Charlotte County case,” reports Gray Rohrer of USA Today Network-Florida. “According to a 2007 report, Ford was sentenced to death in 1999 for brutally killing the Malnorys, who were found shot and bludgeoned to death at South Florida Sod Farm in a remote part of Charlotte County, on April 7, 1997.”

REBOUND — Florida says its high school graduation rates have reached their highest levels yet, following a dip after the pandemic, reports the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Scott Travis and Steven Walker.

By the numbers, per the Sun-Sentinel: “The state’s graduation rate of 89.7 percent was its best ever — not counting the two Covid-19 pandemic years when Florida dropped testing requirements that made it easier for more students to earn diplomas. For that reason, the classes of 2020 and 2021 had higher graduation rates than last year’s. But if those inflated rates, at 90 percent and 90.1 percent, are ignored, the class of 2024 posted the best graduation rate ever, topping the 86.9 percent from the class of 2019, state officials said.”

MASKS HAD HELPED TO CURB — “Whooping cough cases in Florida increase eightfold from 2023 to 2024, state says,” by Ana Goñi-Lessan of USA Today Network-Florida. “Following a nationwide trend, incidences of pertussis, commonly known as whooping cough, have been increasing to pre-pandemic levels. But in 2024 in Florida, the number of cases was still almost double that of 2019, which recorded 359 cases.”

MARKETING BUDGET — “After burning opioid money on marijuana ads, a state agency wants more cash,” by Jason Garcia of Seeking Rents. “DeSantis’ Department of Children & Families is asking Florida lawmakers for $28.4 million from the state’s share of a nationwide legal settlement with the opioid industry for the agency to spend on ‘prevention and media campaigns.’

“That would be a nearly 60 percent increase over the current budget, in which the GOP-controlled Florida Legislature gave the DeSantis administration $18 million in opioid-settlement funds to spend on marketing programs. Representatives for the Department of Children & Families declined to answer when asked why the agency is asking for such a big increase. … But it might be because DeSantis seems to have burned a bunch of this year’s opioid-marketing money on his publicly funded ad campaigns against the marijuana and abortion ballot measures.”

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

MOOT — An appeals court has dismissed former Hillsborough County state attorney ANDREW WARREN’s lawsuit against DeSantis, given that he didn’t win his reelection after the governor suspended him, reports POLITICO’s Bruce Ritchie.

— “Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan is considering the first veto of her term,” by David Bauerlein of the Jacksonville Florida Times-Union.

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., left, President-elect Trump's nominee to be secretary of State, is complimented by Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, as they meet at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 3, 2024.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), left, President-elect Donald Trump's pick to be secretary of State, is complimented by Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) on Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 3, 2024. | J. Scott Applewhite/AP

COMING UP WEDNESDAY — Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) is set for his confirmation hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and former Florida Attorney General PAM BONDI is set for her confirmation hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee, though hers is set to stretch into Thursday.

Financial filing: Rubio submitted his personal financial disclosure over the weekend, which says he divested the two stocks he holds, in Coca-Cola and Cisco Systems, just after filing the report. A personal loan he has that’s valued between $15,000 and $50,000 will be paid off in February, he wrote in the report.

SPOTTED — Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.), who is Trump’s incoming national security adviser, was among the members of Congress who Playbook saw in West Palm Beach this weekend for transition-related meetings.

RETURNING TO D.C. — Trump intends to appoint KATHARINE MACGREGOR, as deputy Interior secretary, reports POLITICO E&E News’ Jennifer Yachnin. “MacGregor served in numerous Capitol Hill and Interior posts, including as deputy chief of staff, before rising to deputy secretary in early 2020. She went on to join Florida Power & Light, and most recently served as vice president for environmental services with NextEra Energy, of which Florida Power & Light is a subsidiary.”

TRAFFIC JAMS — “New security measures, introduced after the assassination attempts over the summer, have made travel by air, land and sea in Palm Beach a testing affair whenever Trump’s in town,” by Holly Peterson of The Wall Street Journal “The president-elect now crosses blockaded bridges like Brezhnev’s Soviet convoys speeding through Moscow’s emptied thoroughfares. For blue-blood locals who have crafted an otherwise frictionless existence here, these daily disruptions are maddening.”

 

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CAMPAIGN MODE

STATE GOP LEADER REELECTED — EVAN POWER, who was selected to guide the Republican Party of Florida a year ago amid the ouster of chair CHRISTIAN ZIEGLER, overwhelmingly won a new year term at the RPOF’s annual meeting held this past weekend in Orlando.

Power did get a last-minute opponent, but the party executive committee backed Power by an overwhelming 183-19 vote over challenger DAVE KALIN from Charlotte County. Kalin said he would help unite the party and also took a swipe at Power, who is a registered lobbyist in Tallahassee, by saying that, “I will lobby for the people, not a private consulting firm. I am not compromised. My morals are not for sale.”

The challenge by Kalin comes amid some tussles between conservative activists and the party, including a contentious meeting of the Osceola County Republican Executive Committee that wound up leading Power to having to appoint the REC board in that county.

But Power led the party through an election cycle that saw Trump easily carry the state while Republicans romped up and down the ballot. The party also helped defeat two constitutional amendments dealing with marijuana and abortion and Republicans held on to their supermajority in the Legislature.

He told GOP faithful that the state party was now “the model of the nation.” He also vowed that the “Florida Republican Party is just getting started.”

— Gary Fineout

— “After switching parties, state Rep. Hillary Cassel receives heavy blowback — and praise from Trump,” by Anthony Man of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.

— “In race for Florida's [1st congressional district], [Aaron] Dimmock emphasizes veterans, property insurance,” reports T.S. Strickland of WUWF.

DATELINE D.C.

JUST AFTER TRUMP'S INAUGURATION — DeSantis will be among the keynote speakers at the Jan. 24 March for Life rally, an anti-abortion gathering that happens once a year in Washington on the National Mall. In 2020, Trump became the first sitting president to address the rally in person.

VENEZUELA INAUGURATION REACTION — “White House announces new Venezuela sanctions as Maduro enters third term,” by POLITICO’s Eric Bazail-Eimil. “If the move was meant to hold [President Nicolás] Maduro and his allies to account for failing to conduct free and fair elections and escalating their repression against the country’s opposition, it may have fallen short. Critics of the Maduro regime and U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle had been pushing for new measures against the petrostate’s oil and gas industry, and that didn’t happen.”

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...HURRICANE HOLE...

DISASTER BILL COMES DUE — “Hurricane Milton caused largest insured losses from any natural disaster in 2024, analysis concludes,” reports News Service of Florida. Insured losses were estimated at $25 billion but “overall losses from Milton totaled about $38 billion, as not all losses were insured.”

— “Latest citrus projections for Florida low but hold steady after hurricane-damaged season,” report Jim Turner and Tom Urban from News Service of Florida.

TRANSITION TIME

— JACKSON PEEL is returning to his job as communications director for Florida House Democrats after working on the Harris-Waltz campaign as rapid response director in Florida.

— HEATHER TURNBULL will be interim vice president of state government relations for HCA Healthcare in Florida, reports Drew Dixon of Florida Politics. He writes: “Turnbull, managing partner of the Top-5 firm Rubin Turnbull & Associates, has long been one of HCA’s lead lobbyists. Turnbull will remain a managing partner at Rubin Turnbull, even as she shifts much of her focus to overseeing all matters related to lobbying and government affairs for HCA Healthcare in Florida.”

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

IN MEMORIAM — “Larry Guest, longtime Orlando Sentinel sports columnist, dies at 82,” by the Orlando Sentinel’s David Whitley. “Larry Guest, a longtime Orlando Sentinel sports columnist who uniquely chronicled the city’s rise from sleepy sports town to major-league city, died Saturday. He was 82 years old. Guest was the Sentinel’s lead sports columnist from 1973 until he retired in 2000. He didn’t just write about Central Florida sports, he helped shape them.”

BIRTHDAYS: Liana Guerra of Rep. Darren Soto’s office ... Cathleen Conley, manager of corporate communications at A. Duda & Sons. ... Phillip Perry of On the Line Strategy.

 

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Kimberly Leonard @leonardkl

 

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