To launch or not to launch

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Jan 14, 2025 View in browser
 
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By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Mickey Djuric

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ Decision day for FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE.

MARK CARNEY tries to keep up with JON STEWART.

→ Introducing 2024's Playbook Prognosticators of the Year.

LEADERSHIP RACE

DECISION TIME —  Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE will reveal whether he's in or out of the Liberal leadership race during a fireside chat at the Canadian Club Toronto at 12:40 p.m.

Also on the agenda alongside journalist AMANDA LANG: AI, economic security, supply chains and critical minerals. Champagne will hold a media avail at approximately 1:30 p.m.

— Hint, hint? As CP first reported, Liberals can declare their support online for most of the potential leadership candidates. We found pages for CHANDRA ARYA, FRANK BAYLIS, MARK CARNEY, CHRISTY CLARK, CHRYSTIA FREELAND, KARINA GOULD and JONATHAN WILKINSON.

For Champagne, we found only an inactive page.

— Prepare for launch: The Hill Times reported Monday that Carney will launch his campaign on Thursday in Edmonton. Playbook confirmed with a source familiar with Carney's thinking that he's expected to launch later this week.

Radio-Canada was first to report that Freeland is expected to launch her own bid for the leadership next week before DONALD TRUMP's inauguration on Monday. Freeland is said to be considering a "dollar-for-dollar" response to the president-elect's tariff threat — a trade war far beyond the scale of previous spats with Trump.

LATE NIGHT WITH CARNEY — The Hill Times reported Monday that Carney will launch his campaign on Thursday in Edmonton. Playbook confirmed with a source familiar with Carney's thinking that he's expected to launch later this week.

— While you were sleeping: Carney showed up on “The Daily Show” last night.

The former Bank of Governor for Canada and the U.K. took several opportunities to make a joke during the 20-minute interview, playing along with host JON STEWART rather than pushing his talking points. Like when Stewart described Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE as a “fictional J.K. Rowling name at best” who’s “like a villain in a Karate Kid movie,” Carney quipped back “you’re not far off.”

— Overnight views: 250,000-plus.

Here’s what else stood out:

On being a part of the U.S.: “The bottom line, it’s not gonna happen. …We find you very attractive, but we’re not moving in with you. It’s not you, it’s us,” Carney joked. “We can be friends. There can be a few benefits, Jon. Friends with benefits. Benefits of trade, benefits of defense.”

On Trudeau’s resignation: “In a situation like this you need change. You need to address the economy. We’ve got an economic crisis because of what Mr. Trump is about to do — or saying he’s about to do. But we also have challenges in housing, cost of living,” he said. “And truth be told, the government has not been as focused on those issues as it could be. We need to focus on them immediately.”

Teasing his pitch: “A wild hypothetical: Let’s say the candidate wasn’t part of the government. Let’s say the candidate did have a lot of economic experience. Let’s say the candidate did deal with prices. Let’s say the candidate had a plan to deal with the challenges in the here and now,” he said, while proclaiming, “I am an outsider.”

— Keep 'em guessing: Everybody knows Carney is joining the leadership race. Still, Stewart failed to extract a clear answer on Carney's plans — and joked about him playing coy.

Welcome to the club, Jon.

INDIGENOUS VOICE — Liberal MP JAIME BATTISTE plans to enter the Liberal leadership race, CBC News reported Monday.

"I am laying the groundwork for an exploratory team that will seek to launch the first campaign by an Indigenous candidate for the leadership of the Liberal Party Canada, and to be the next prime minister of Canada," wrote in a statement.

The Mi'kmaw MP from Cape Breton claims to have raised C$40,000 — a little over 10 percent of the C$350,000 entry fee into the race. Battiste acknowledged the odds.

"There must always be people willing to try … even if their journey is one meant to pave the way for future generations," Battiste said, citing Manitoba politician ELIJAH HARPER as a precursor to Premier WAB KINEW.

TALK OF THE TOWN

2024 PROGNOSTICATORS OF THE YEAR — Last January, Playbook tested the predictive capacity of a small army of savvy savants on key political questions for 2024. Here’s how things shook out.

— And the winners are: We had a tie at 9 points out of a possible 10. We're pleased to announce that Oyster Group VP SHAKIR CHAMBERS and Sandstone Group managing partner NARESH RAGHUBEER are the 2024 Playbook Prognosticators of the Year.

→ Dynasty watch: Chambers successfully defended his 2023 shared title.

→ Q. Will there be a general election? No. The Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement survived until September and the Liberals muddled through.

→ Q. Will a federal pharmacare bill become law before the summer break? No. The Liberals managed to get a bill to the Senate in June, but Bill C-64 was only law by October.

→ Q. Will the cost of living be the consensus top issue among pollsters at the end of 2024? Yes. Most polls listed cost of living and affordability as a top voter priority as prices remained high following years of stubborn inflation.

→ Q. How many Cabinet ministers will be shuffled in 2024? The over/under was 6. More than six were either dropped, promoted or moved around. Most of the action fell on the Friday before Christmas, when a long-awaited shuffle capped a tumultuous December.

→ Q. How many federal by-elections will be held? The over/under was 6. Voters cast ballots in five by-elections: Durham, Toronto-St. Paul's, LaSalle-Émard-Verdun, Elmwood-Transcona and Cloverdale-Langley City.

→ Q. Excluding vacations, how many countries will the prime minister visit? The over/under was 13. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU visited 10 countries: Ukraine, Poland, U.S., France, Italy, Switzerland, Laos, Bermuda, Peru and Brazil. (The short jaunt to Bermuda was personal business — to deliver a eulogy — but not vacation.)

→ Q. Which party leaders will keep their jobs? They all did.

→ Q. Will Donald Trump win Michigan in November? Yes. Trump won 49.7 percent of the vote, besting KAMALA HARRIS' 48.3 percent. Shoutout to National Post's RAHIM MOHAMED, who correctly predicted a Muslim voter swing to the president-elect.

→ Q. Will a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup? No, but the Edmonton Oilers were within a game of bringing the Cup back to Canada.

→ Q. The federal budget will be tabled in… April. Former Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND unveiled what turned out to be her final annual plan on April 16.

2025 PREDICTIONS — Playbook is again asking politicos to pronounce on their predictive prowess in a show of sagacious speculation. We'll roll out their forecasts in a pair of Playbooks next week as you acclimatize to the coming chaos of 2025.

— Play along with the pros: Our survey includes 10 questions that'll test your powers of prognostication. Click here to take the survey. We'll accept responses until Jan. 17.

Where the leaders are

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events on his itinerary.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold an “ax the tax” rally this evening in Powell River, British Columbia.

— Playbook has no line of sight into itineraries for Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH.

— Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY will co-host the monthly Saanich forum with BC Green MLA ROB BOTTERELL at 1:30 p.m. Pacific time.

NOMINATION WATCH

As a federal election nears, we're tracking the number of nominated candidates in each major party — and noting significant names as they emerge. A full slate is 343 candidates.

— Conservative: 169

— Liberal: 128

— NDP: 93

— Green: 52

— Bloc Québécois: 2

→ Worth noting: New Democrats have seven nomination meetings scheduled for the near future. The Bloc noted several potential candidates to be confirmed: PATRICK BONIN, PATRICK O'HARA, NOÉMIE ROUILLARD, incumbent MP KRISTINA MICHAUD, MARIE-NOËLLE CLOSSON-DUQUETTE, DANIEL LEBEL and ROSE LESSARD.

MEDIA ROOM

— Former PM STEPHEN HARPER lashed out at DONALD TRUMP on the Standpoint pod hosted by GABE GROISMAN. Harper pushed back on Trump's rhetoric on dairy exports, oil and gas exports, cross-border crime and drug flow, and defense spending.

— The Globe’s CAMPBELL CLARK reports that TOM PITFIELD has committed to remain neutral in the Liberal leadership campaign.

RAISA PATEL of the Star has the latest on Liberal efforts to lock down pharmacare deals.

— From POLITICO’s LEONIE CATER: How Saudi Arabia became the world’s plastic cheerleader.

— On The Line, former NDP MP CRAIG SCOTT pitches an "admittedly unlikely" plan for governing in the first days of Trump 2.0. Among his suggestions: multi-party unity Cabinet.

PROZONE

For Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by MIKE BLANCHFIELD: Minister links Canadian energy to U.S. national security.

In other news for Pro readers: 

Trump’s Day One will be packed with energy orders.

Cancer is the unseen danger in the Los Angeles fires.

U.S. Supreme Court rejects oil companies' appeal in climate tort case.

How the Trump team plans to purge Biden’s climate work.

Burgum's confirmation hearing for Interior secretary pushed to Thursday.

Biden’s Commerce Department unveils sweeping global AI chip export restrictions.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to the PMO’s JASON EASTON and to pollster and pundit ALLAN GREGG of Earnscliffe Strategies.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

 Noted: National Security and Intelligence Adviser NATHALIE DROUIN published a statement on the race to replace JUSTIN TRUDEAU: "As leadership contests play a crucial role in maintaining the integrity of our democratic processes, the SITE Task Force will be monitoring the upcoming Liberal Party of Canada leadership campaign for possible foreign interference," it read in part.

Movers and shakers: SHIFT Media Strategies launched Monday. The digital campaign firm's partners include MONTE SOLBERG, KEITH MCLAUGHLIN, MATT SOLBERG, MICHAEL SOLBERG, chief technology officer STEPHEN TAYLOR and creative director TIMOTHY GERWING.

Media mentions: CARA MCKENNA is now editorial director of tâpwêwin media, the owner of IndigiNews … MATT SCACE has joined The Canadian Press as a Calgary reporter/editor.

TRIVIA


TRIVIA CUP — Registration is open for the Second Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup, a celebration of all that is nerdy for our fishbowl's finest.

Here are the dates and virtual registration links, as well as all the details you need to register a team. Sign up now!

— Lobbyists: Monday, Jan. 27. Click here.

— Diplomats: Monday, Feb. 10. Click here.

— Journalists/Academics: Monday, March 24. Click here.

— Bureaucrats: Monday, April 28. Click here.

— None of the above: Monday, May 5. Click here.

The top 4 teams at each qualifier will advance to the championship on Monday, June 2.

Now, on to our daily trivia.

Monday’s answer: There were a record number of 95 skating days during the 1971-1972 season of the Rideau Canal Skateway. During the 2022-2023 season, there were none — another record.

Props to JONAH ROSEN, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, GORDON RANDALL, NATALIE MCGEE, RAY DEL BIANCO and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Today’s question: Who became veterans affairs minister on this day in 2019?

Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Wednesday's Playbook will be written by MICKEY DJURIC.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Run a Playbook ad campaign. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

 

Follow us on Twitter

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Mike Blanchfield @ @mblanchfield

Mickey Djuric @MickeyDjuric

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