President Donald Trump himself acknowledged the challenge following his inauguration on Monday night, saying he was “not confident” he would be able to keep the Gaza cease-fire. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
With help from Daniel Lippman, Connor O’Brien, Nahal Toosi and Eli Stokols
Just one day into the job, President DONALD TRUMP’s new foreign policy team faces the daunting task of trying to help cement a permanent end to the war in Gaza and finding a way to secure the release of dozens of hostages still in Hamas captivity.
Several administration officials and GOP advisers who worked with the transition team on the matter said they’re hard at work on the next phase of talks, but conceded they faced a difficult path ahead.
“What Biden left us with is the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end,” said one official. All were granted anonymity to discuss the administration’s internal thinking on the issues.
Among the diplomatic headaches Trump’s team now has to tackle: How to turn an initial six-week cease-fire into a more permanent one, if the conditions exist; how to secure the release of over 60 Israeli and other foreign hostages that Hamas hasn’t yet agreed to free; and how, if at all, Trump would help Israel fulfill its vow to fully destroy Hamas.
And that’s not to mention other factors that could undermine a possible peace process — including tamping down lingering tensions in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah group or a new explosion of violence in the West Bank.
All the while, administration officials insist that the new Trump team will prioritize efforts to normalize ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia — a tough diplomatic aim even before the Gaza war broke out, given long-running tensions between the two countries.
National security adviser MIKE WALTZ and Trump’s newly confirmed Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO will be directly involved in the matter almost immediately, these officials and advisers said. The yeoman’s work will go to Trump’s new Middle East team, including STEVE WITKOFF, his presidential envoy for the Middle East, deputy envoy MORGAN ORTAGUS, and ERIC TRAGER, Trump’s new senior director for the Middle East on the National Security Council. Witkoff joined top Biden officials for talks that presaged the cease-fire discussions in Qatar before Trump entered office.
Trump himself acknowledged the challenge following his inauguration on Monday night, saying he was “not confident” he would be able to keep the Gaza cease-fire. "It's not our war, it's their war. I'm not confident, but they're very weakened on the other side,” he said.
Waltz, meanwhile, has said in recent days that “Hamas has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute” its military strength and said it should have no role in governing a post-war Gaza. How that happens remains to be seen; even after 15 months of war, Hamas still runs Gaza.
While Waltz and his Biden counterpart, JAKE SULLIVAN, coordinated closely on this issue in the final weeks of the Biden administration, Waltz hasn’t pulled his punches in criticizing the Biden administration and signaled the new Trump team would lift all Biden-era holds on weapons transfers to Israel.
“I think we’re in a very good place because the Israeli government didn’t listen sometimes to the not-so-good advice coming out of this administration,” Waltz told the Call Me Back podcast with Dan Senor on Jan. 15. “You’re not going to see this administration tapping the brakes to make sure Israel can arm itself,” he said.
Power shifts, razor-thin margins, and a high-stakes agenda. We’ve transformed our coverage—more reporters, more timely insights, and unmatched policy scoops. From leadership offices to committee rooms, caucus meetings, and beyond, our expert reporting keeps you ahead of the decisions that matter. Subscribe to our Inside Congress newsletter today.
The Inbox
BOLTON’S PROTECTION GONE: Trump has ended the Secret Service detail assigned to protect his own former national security adviser, JOHN BOLTON, in the face of ongoing threats against him from Iran, Bolton announced on X. Bolton served as Trump’s national security adviser from 2018 to 2019 and has since become a staunch critic of the president. (Our colleague JOHN SAKELLARIADIShas previously reported on Iran’s efforts to assassinate former U.S. officials.)
THAT’S SECRETARY RUBIO TO YOU: A large crowd of U.S. diplomats welcomed Rubio to State Department headquarters early this afternoon for his first day on the job. He gave a brief but pointed speech praising them but also stressing that they must put America’s interest first.
Rubio also talked of his desire to reverse what some see as State’s marginalization. “Sometimes the Department of State has been sort of relegated to a secondary role because some other agency can move faster or seems to be bolder or more creative. It's not your fault, but we're going to change that,” Rubio said.
Earlier in the day, the department posted the names of the people who will be taking leadership positions — primarily on a temporary basis, until Senate-confirmed nominees arrive — under Rubio. NatSec Daily obtained the list, which you can check out here.
AFGHAN FLIGHTS HALTED: Hundreds of Afghan refugees scheduled for relocation flights to the United States are now in limbo following Trump’s executive order Monday night suspending the entry of all refugees under the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program.
According to a report by Reuters’ JONATHAN LANDAY, the cancellation of flights as of Jan. 27 will deny entry to at least 1,600 refugees over the next few months.
SHAWN VANDIVER, the director of AfghanEVac, a non-profit that pushed the Biden administration to revamp the program and speed up processing time for Afghans who assisted the U.S. over the two-decade war now at risk of retribution from the Taliban, told our own ELI STOKOLS that he remains hopeful about reaching the Trump White House and convincing them to reverse course.
“We had to work to convince the Biden administration and we’ll do the same with the Trump White House,” he said. “President Trump loves to make a deal and he values loyalty, so we presume he’ll want to ensure we aren’t abandoning the allies who were loyal to us.”
PUTIN AND XI SIDEBAR: Chinese leader XI JINPING and Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN convened a 95-minute video call hours after Trump’s inauguration to pledge closer strategic and economic ties, as our own PHELIM KINE writes in.
The two leaders — in a Trump-era sequel to their “no limits” cooperation pledge in 2021 — discussed “ international and regional issues of common concern” said Chinese state news agency Xinhua on Tuesday. That’s code for China’s alignment with Russia’s war on Ukraine, and possibly a wink at Rubio’s convening of a meeting of Quad foreign ministers on Tuesday. They committed to “continue deepening strategic coordination, firming up mutual support, and safeguarding the legitimate interests of the two countries,” the report said, quoting Xi.
One detail of note: the readout of the call by Russian state news agency TASS hinted at the country’s economic concerns by stressing Putin’s interest in “mutual trade” and gas pipeline cooperation.
IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – MOYAR PULLS OUT: MARK MOYAR, a top military historian who has been fighting the loss of his security clearance, has pulled out after being chosen as the USAID acting deputy administrator for policy, a person familiar with the matter told our DANIEL LIPPMAN.
Moyar was reportedly fired from a previous USAID job as director of the office of civilian-military cooperation in the first Trump administration in 2019 after his security clearance was suspended because he published a book about American special forces that the Pentagon said contained dozens of instances of classified information.
He is currently the William P. Harris chair of military history at Hillsdale College, and last year published “Masters of Corruption: How the Federal Bureaucracy Sabotaged the Trump Presidency,” which alleged that after Moyar reported corruption to USAID leaders, senior USAID bureaucrats retaliated against him by getting his clearance revoked. The clearance was restored in July 2020 but a few months later, security officials sought to revoke it again. Moyar filed a lawsuit in February 2022 to ask the government to provide evidence for their efforts to take away his clearance, and the case is still making its way through the courts.
A former Trump administration official said that a security clearance is necessary to properly carry out the USAID job Moyar was up for. Moyar had initially accepted the position of acting deputy administrator, but within the past few days, he withdrew because of family considerations, according to the person. According to his most recent book, one of his children has been battling cancer since December 2020.
Moyar declined to comment and a spokesperson for the White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – NEW DFC CONTENDER: Former senior Trump State Department official KEITH KRACH is being considered to head up the Development Finance Corporation, two people familiar with the matter told Lippman.
Krach, the former chairman and CEO of DocuSign, served as under secretary of State for economic growth, energy and the environment in the first Trump administration. He is the chair of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue and the chair of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council.
As the Trump administration searches for any sign of disloyalty, one of the people noted that Krach didn’t donate to Trump’s campaign this past cycle while his soon-to-be ex-wife METTA donated to Democrats last year, according to FEC records.
Krach declined to comment. A spokesperson for the White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Another person familiar with the matter said that Krach doesn’t track Metta’s campaign donations. The person called Krach “a strong supporter of the President’s America First agenda and I am sure he would be honored to help in any way he can.” They also noted he left a billion dollars on the table after divesting from DocuSign to serve Trump in the first administration, and he would do the same again.
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — QUITE AN EASY JOB IN AN ERA OF TARIFFS: RAY WASHBURNE, who headed up the former Overseas Private Investment Corporation in the last Trump administration, is being considered to head up the Export-Import Bank this time around, two people familiar with the matter told Lippman.
Whoever gets the job will have to deal with a president who promised widespread tariffs on goods coming from abroad during his campaign but hasn’t yet implemented them. Washburne, the chairman of the board of the energy company Sunoco and a co-founder of the M Crowd Restaurant Group, and a spokesperson for the White House didn’t respond to requests for comment.
The Complex
FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — SHERRILL’S MILITARY MISSIVES: Rep. MIKIE SHERRILL (D-N.J.) has reintroduced legislation aimed at limiting the potential domestic use of the National Guard by Trump, our own CONNOR O'BRIEN writes in.
The bill requires the consent of governors or chief executives of both the state sending National Guard forces and the state receiving those troops if the president requests Guard units under Title 32 status, where troops are under the command of state governors. It also would clarify that the Posse Comitatus Act, which bars federal troops from performing domestic law enforcement, applies to all troops under federal command and control regardless of their duty status.
Sherrill argued the bill is needed after Trump "utilized dangerous gaps in the laws that govern National Guard deployment for his personal political gain" during his first term.
"I have no doubt he will do so again," Sherrill said in a statement. He said his legislation “would close some of these dangerous loopholes to prevent Trump from weaponizing the military and law enforcement to go after his political opponents or carry out his extreme policy agenda."
ON THE HILL
STEFANIK’S TOUGH TALK: Rep. ELISE STEFANIK (R-N.Y.), Trump’s pick for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, faced a mostly cordial reception from the Senate Foreign Relations Committee today, as she lashed into the United Nations for its critical posture towards Israel and outlined her vision, and Trump’s vision, for U.S. leadership at the multilateral organization.
There were some tense moments, including when she rebuffed suggestions from Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) that tech mogul ELON MUSK did a Nazi salute at a Trump rally on Monday. Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) also swatted her suggestion that Democratic senators supported “open borders” and “allowing illegal immigrants to vote.”
But most of the New York Republican’s fire was directed toward the United Nations. Stefanik defended Trump’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization and supported cuts against the U.N. Relief and Works Agency, the main U.N. body providing humanitarian assistance to Palestinians. UNRWA has been accused of turning a blind eye to local staff’s ties to Hamas and other militant groups after some UNRWA workers allegedly participated in the Oct. 7 terror attacks. Stefanik also bashed the International Criminal Court for pursuing crimes against humanity and war crimes charges against Israeli leaders.
But Stefanik also dove into plans for reform at the U.N. and emphasized the need for a greater U.S. presence at headquarters in New York and around the U.N. system, as part of the Trump administration’s push to counter increased Chinese influence around the world. Among the suggestions Stefanik proposed is to step up recruitment of U.S. citizens to work for the U.N. and to work with colleges and universities to bring in talented early-career professionals.
Broadsides
HOOK HITS A SNAG: Trump made clear that he holds a grudge against former top aide BRIAN HOOK.
In a late-night post on Truth Social, Trump summarily fired his own former top Iran envoy from the board of directors of the Washington-based Wilson Center think tank. The think tank receives some U.S. government funding and the members of its board are appointed to six-year terms by the president.
— ELIZABETH ECONOMY, a Biden administration alumni and analyst on U.S.-China relations, has joined the WestExec Advisors consulting firm as a principal.
— The ONE Campaign, a global health advocacy organization, has hired former general counsel for the House Foreign Affairs Committee DOUG ANDERSON as its senior director of U.S. government relations.
— DANIEL THAYER is now military legislative assistant for Rep. MARK MESSMER (R-Ind.). He was previously a legislative correspondent for Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.).
Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we’ve announced we’re firing in a Truth Social post.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we’re appointing as NatSec Daily’s new special editorial envoy.
New Year. New Washington. New Playbook. With intensified congressional coverage and even faster delivery of policy scoops, POLITICO’s reimagined Playbook Newsletter ensures you’re always ahead of the conversation. Sign up today.
