“We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield,” Pete Hegseth said in Brussels today. | Alex Wong/Getty Images
With help from Nahal Toosi, Daniel Lippman, Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Veronika Melkozerova
President DONALD TRUMP’s announcement that he will launch peace talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine represents a major thaw between Moscow and Washington after years of tension between the two powers.
But the question on both sides of the Atlantic has now become whether Kyiv and Washington have enough leverage over Moscow to secure a deal that works for Ukraine’s long-term interests, especially after some brusque comments from Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH.
The Trump administration has kept the Biden-era restrictive energy sector sanctions against Russia alive. They have also voiced their continued support for Ukraine, even as a blanket pause on foreign assistance has limited aid to Kyiv. And Trump’s team secured the release of two Americans, including schoolteacher MARC FOGEL, from Russian custody, in turn diminishing the ability of the Kremlin to use one of its favorite bargaining chips, American nationals in its custody, against Washington.
“We will only end this devastating war and establish a durable peace by coupling allied strength with a realistic assessment of the battlefield,” Hegseth said in Brussels today, before adding that “returning to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders is an unrealistic objective.”
Hegseth’s comments in particular have caused some top allies of Kyiv in Washington to worry that any diplomatic effort now may end up undermining Ukraine’s security. Sen. JACK REED (D-R.I.), the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, told our own Connor O’Brien that Hegseth “is publicly giving away leverage that the President would, I hope, use with respect to the Russians in their discussions.”
Meanwhile, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, JEANNE SHAHEEN of New Hampshire, wrote on X that “@SecDef is actively working against Ukrainian interests,” adding “We must keep all options on the table to put an end to Russia’s illegal war.”
At a White House briefing today, press secretary KAROLINE LEAVITT dodged a question about whether Hegseth was ceding leverage too soon. But she emphasized that the White House views Russia “as a great competitor in the region, at times an adversary” even as Trump looks to find “common ground” with leaders around the world. The Pentagon declined to offer additional comment.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Poland DANIEL FRIED, a proponent of U.S. support for Ukraine, offered a more sober assessment of Hegseth’s remarks. “This is not the process or quite the language I would have chosen. But it is not necessarily in itself a catastrophe or blowing all of our leverage. That test is yet to come,” said Fried, who spent four decades in the foreign service.
“His language was imprecise. But he didn’t say Ukraine has to recognize the realities on the ground and give it up,” said Fried, referring to territory occupied by Russia.
For the moment, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY is playing it cool. In response to Hegseth’s remarks, he said today that Ukraine needs “real security guarantees” and appealed to Trump “to give us these security guarantees, to help Ukraine, to strengthen us.” Still, he acknowledged that NATO membership was a big request, one that was not close to being accomplished. And in a post on X after his call with Trump, Zelenskyy wrote that “no one wants peace more than Ukraine. Together with the U.S., we are charting our next steps to stop Russian aggression and ensure a lasting, reliable peace.”
On Thursday, he will speak with Vice President JD VANCE and Secretary of State MARCO RUBIO on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, in a meeting that is now poised to turn the tide of history.
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The Inbox
GAZA CEASE-FIRE TEETERS: The cease-fire between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas looks to be on the verge of imminent collapse and Arab allies are growing antsy with the White House’s outspoken plans for rebuilding Gaza.
Egypt, one of the key brokers of the cease-fire deal, is voicing outrage over Trump’s plans to displace Palestinians en masse and redevelop the Gaza Strip. Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI will not visit the White House, as Trump has doubled down on the far-reaching plan.
Meanwhile, Israel and Hamas are still at loggerheads over the release of the remaining hostages in Hamas captivity. Hamas earlier this week said it would pause hostage releases in line with the first phase of the cease-fire deal, accusing Israel of violating the terms. But Israel is threatening to resume fighting if hostages aren’t released this weekend as planned, and Israel called up reservists today, a move that typically presages a breakout of more fighting in the enclave.
DOGE’S MAN AT USAID: The top person carrying out ELON MUSK’s directives to shrink and reorient the U.S. Agency for International Development is a recent Harvard law graduate with experience in corporate restructuring.
JEREMY LEWIN heads a team of three representatives at USAID from Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency initiative, according to a person familiar with the situation who was granted anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
A few other media outlets have named Lewin as a DOGE rep, but the extent of his role has been unclear. It is difficult to track down information online about Lewin, where there are many people with the same name. He does not appear to have an active LinkedIn page. That said, our own Nahal Toosi obtained a document with some fresh details.
Lewin’s past employers, according to the document, have included Houlihan Lokey, an investment banking firm; the Munger, Tolles & Olson law firm; and the Cravath, Swaine & Moore law firm. He also spent time with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, clerking for Judge JUDITH ROGERS, a BILL CLINTON appointee. Lewin is a member of the conservative Federalist Society. And as an undergraduate at Dartmouth, Lewin wrote a thesis that critiqued U.S. policies that accommodated China in the post-Cold War era.
Lewin has been a major proponent of dramatically scaling back the amount USAID spends on foreign assistance and its size. The Trump administration, at DOGE’s urging, has tried to oust most of the agency’s 10,000-plus workforce. The moves face legal challenges.
Spokespersons for USAID, the State Department and the White House National Security Council did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Neither did Lewin nor a representative for DOGE.
ESTONIA INTEL REPORT:Few nations know Russia better than Estonia. And the Baltic country’s intelligence services punch well above the weight of its population of around 1.3 million.
Luckily for us, they’re also committed to transparency, and the public annual report by the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service released today is a must-read. Given the country’s geography, it’s almost entirely focused on Russia.
There’s a lot packed into the 87-page report, which details how Moscow is seeking to rebuild and expand the capabilities of its armed forces in preparation for a potential confrontation with NATO. The “war economy boom,” which has helped Russia ease the pain of Western sanctions, is likely to peter out this year, according to the assessment, while Moscow’s disinformation about the war is gaining ground in developing countries.
Regionally, Russia seeks to re-establish its dominance in the south Caucasus, most notably Georgia, and to bolster its ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates as a way to overcome its isolation from the West.
There was one cause for relief: Russia is “highly unlikely” to use nuclear weapons in its war against Ukraine, according to the Estonians. But is likely to use the fear around nuclear weapons to try and sway Western decision-making.
SPEAKING OF MUNICH:All of this sets the stage for a very newsy Munich Security Conference. Our colleagues are already on the ground and ready to deliver the latest insights, headlines and trendlines. Join us at the POLITICO Pub or on our livestream from Feb. 14-16 to experience high-level interviews and fireside chats featuring decision-makers shaping global security policy.
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A NEW BATCH OF NOMINEES: The Trump administration overnight sent a batch of new nominations to the Senate, including previously unannounced picks for senior diplomatic and national security posts. Here are a few worth watching for NatSec Daily readers:
THOMAS DINANNO is Trump’s nominee to be undersecretary of State for arms control and international security. Dinanno, an arms control official in the first Trump administration, could play a leading role in any efforts by the new Trump team to revive nuclear arms talks with China. (That didn’t get very far the last time around.)
Meanwhile, ALLISON HOOKER was nominated as the State Department’s third-ranking official, under secretary of State for political affairs. Hooker is viewed in Trump’s world as a top expert on Asian security issues and was involved in North Korea nuclear negotiations at the National Security Council during Trump’s first term.
JOEL RAYBURN is Trump’s pick for assistant secretary of State for Near Eastern affairs, PAUL KAPUR his pick for assistant secretary of State for South Asian affairs and CHRIS PRATT for assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs.
At the Treasury Department, Trump nominated JOHN HURLEY to be undersecretary for terrorism and financial crimes, a key role in overseeing Washington’s powerful sanctions regime.
THE SPENDING WARS: Russia’s military expenditures are rising so fast that they’re outperforming Europe’s combined military spending efforts, according to a new think tank report released Wednesday, as our own Lucia MacKenzie reports.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies’ latest Military Balance report said that Russia’s military expenditure last year was forecast at 13.1 trillion rubles ($145.9 billion), or 6.7 percent of the country’s GDP, compared to Europe’s combined 2024 defense spending of $457 billion.
But if Russia's spending is calculated in purchasing power parity terms — used in countries like Russia where domestic inputs are significantly cheaper than on the world market — the Kremlin's military expenditure would come to $461.6 billion, the report said.
The report offers yet another warning sign that Europe’s defense spending collectively has a problem lesser than the sum of its parts.
ON THE HILL
GABBARD STICKS THE LANDING: TULSI GABBARD clinched Senate confirmation to be the director of national intelligence in a 52-48 vote, our own Amy Mackinnon reports. Every Republican except Sen. MITCH McCONNELL (R-Ky.) voted to back the Hawaii Democrat turned Trump supporter for the role of America’s intelligence chief.
DEMS TAKE ON DOGE: The top Democrat on the House Armed Services accused the Trump administration of an “unconstitutional” overreach for gutting USAID programs — something that will have deadly consequences, as our own Joe Gould writes in.
"Literally people are starving to death because programs are shut down that we committed to," Rep. ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.) told CNN on Wednesday.
Musk on Tuesday claimed that some officials at USAID had been taking “kickbacks” and that “quite a few people” in the government had “managed to accrue tens of millions of dollars in net worth while they are in that position.” Smith blasted Musk for offering no proof and usurping Congress’ power of the purse.
Trump, Smith said, should try to work with Congress and pass legislation to scrap aid programs that don’t make sense instead of acting unilaterally and opaquely.
“There's no transparency on this. We're just going to find out as it happens. And that is against our constitutional democracy,” Smith said.
Along these lines, Rep. GREGORY MEEKS of New York, the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat, wrote to Rubio today, urging him to restore USAID operations, reinstate its personnel and “engage in a serious consultation process prior to making any changes at USAID.” Rubio, as a senator, was a “strong supporter” of USAID, he said.
“This process has been anything but thoughtful and serious — and instead, a wholesale destruction of USAID is apparently being spearheaded by an unelected billionaire who lacks your stature as a Cabinet official, or your experience in U.S. national security and foreign policy,” Meeks wrote. “There is time to right the ship you helm at State and USAID, and I look forward to working with you to do so.”
HAITI’S HIDDEN TOLL: Amnesty International is warning that the massive wave of gang violence in Haiti is causing a surge in child abuse and exploitation, as a Kenya-led multinational security support mission to bolster the country’s beleaguered police forces calls for new resources and help.
In the report, Amnesty outlines how gangs in the Caribbean country’s capital of Port-au-Prince are using children to run deliveries, gather information and perform domestic tasks. Meanwhile, girls and women are reporting rapes and abductions during gang assaults on neighborhoods in the city.
The United States has authorized some $40.7 million in assistance to the embattled multinational support mission, one of the rare exemptions that Rubio has made to a sweeping freeze on U.S. foreign aid globally. The government of El Salvador also provided the mission with some helicopters for their use as 144 Kenyan officers have deployed to the Caribbean country.
Transitions
— Former acting Department of Homeland Security Secretary CHAD WOLF is joining the Protecting America Initiative as senior adviser.
— BRETT McGURK is now a non-resident senior fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. He most recently was deputy assistant to former President JOE BIDEN and coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa at the NSC.
— The Trump administration fired PAUL MARTIN, the inspector general of the U.S. Agency for International Development, on Tuesday — a day after he put out a report criticizing the foreign aid freeze, per our own Nahal Toosi.
— COREY LEWANDOWSKI is now a special government employee at the Department of Homeland Security, two people familiar with the matter told our Daniel Lippman In a statement to West Wing Playbook. A DHS spokesperson said, “Like Elon Musk and so many other patriots, Mr. Lewandowski volunteers his time as a special government employee (SGE) to help President Trump Make America Great Again.” The spokesperson declined to comment when asked for specifics of what he is doing at the department.
— JAMES BAEHR has been nominated to be general counsel of the Department of Veterans Affairs. He is currently a special counsel at the Pelican Institute for Public Policy, a senior fellow at the America First Policy Institute, and was a special assistant to the president in the Domestic Policy Council in the first Trump White House. A veteran of Operation Inherent Resolve, he serves as a lieutenant colonel and military judge in the Marine Corps Reserves.
— CALEB ORR has been nominated to be assistant secretary of State for economic and business affairs. He most recently was a judicial law clerk in the U.S. Courts of Appeals in Houston and worked for Rubio in the Senate and for the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship.
— LANDON HEID has been nominated as assistant secretary of Commerce for export administration at the Bureau of Industry and Security. He currently is a tech policy staffer for the House Select Committee on China and previously was at the State Department where he served at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing and in the Office of China Coordination and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who always gives up leverage too quickly in a negotiation.
Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, a deft negotiator.
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