| | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer, Eric Bazail-Eimil and Daniel Lippman | | Presented by |  | | | | 
European officials tell us they’re following Vice President JD Vance’s visit closely. | Tobias Schwarz/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Carmen Paun Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric MUNICH — World leaders are descending on southern Germany on Friday for the annual Munich Security Conference, varyingly referred to as the Super Bowl for natsec nerds, the Davos for defense, or according to one British official we ran into, defense Glastonbury. The gloomy Munich weather matches the gloomy vibes at MSC: Anxious Europeans are bracing for more bombshells from President DONALD TRUMP and his team over a MAGA-run Washington’s approach to Russia and a much more realpolitik if not fully hostile approach to Europe. That’s especially true following Trump’s call with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Defense Secretary PETE HEGSETH’s comments on walking back Biden-era pledges on Ukraine joining NATO as part of talks. Taken together, they added up to a sentiment that Trump and Putin are talking over Kyiv’s and Europe’s heads to get to a deal. And Europeans aren’t too pleased. Your NatSec Daily anchor is on the ground in Munich helping cover all the big news this weekend. (For those with serious MSC fomo, not to worry, POLITICO has you covered all weekend, complete with our own round of interviews with top officials and lawmakers.) And for those hungry for an MSC appetizer, here are three major issues we’re tracking this weekend:
JD meets Z: Last year, then-Ohio Sen. JD VANCE made waves at MSC as one of the lone U.S. voices casting doubt on the value of Washington continuing to arm Ukraine. This year, he comes as vice president, and he’s set to meet Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY on Friday before giving a public speech to the crowd. No surprise here: European officials tell us they’re following Vance’s visit closely. It’s his debut as veep on the world stage, so they’re watching what he says but also the intangible vibes his visit gives off. Will his meeting with Zelenskyy be warm or frosty? If he throws some MAGA bombshells in his speech, as we all expect, will they signify a real U.S. shift away from Europe or more of a rhetorical show for the audience at home? Europeans are desperate for any signals from Vance of support for NATO and their efforts in Ukraine.
Is Europe ready to step up? For years, veteran MSC participants have heard the same tired conversation over and over on European allies needing to step up on becoming a strategic player on the world stage and beef up their own military power separate from the United States — to so far underwhelming results. Has the second Trump win finally jolted them out of their slumber? Some Eastern European countries argue that they’re doing their part on the national level but Brussels needs to catch up. This year’s MSC will be the critical litmus test for whether big powers in Europe such as Germany, France and Italy are rising to the occasion or not. One early sign that doesn’t bode well for Europe: It seems sidelined in Trump’s early negotiations with Russia over Ukraine. “While the Europeans hope to ‘keep the U.S. in’ and U.S. support flowing for Ukraine, they do not see the risk that comes with taking themselves out of the game when it comes to securing a cease-fire,” said LIANA FIX of the Council on Foreign Relations, who’s also on the ground in Munich.
Any consensus on China? The reason that some GOP figures, including Vance, want to back off of supporting Ukraine is to refocus as much U.S. military power as possible on confronting China. But there’s daylight between Washington and Europe on the type of long-term threat China poses, and we’re watching MSC closely this year to see if Europeans will begin hewing more toward Washington’s line. Back stateside, among both Democrats and Republicans alike, China is viewed as the prime existential threat that requires urgent action. The debate in Brussels has much different vibes, with European officials often referring to China as a long-term challenge but not going as far as the United States in their warnings, or balking from breaking off critical trade ties with Beijing. If European officials take a much more publicly hawkish line on China, it may earn them early points with the Trump team, two Eastern European officials told NatSec Daily. (We agreed not to name them as they weren’t authorized to speak publicly about their governments’ internal policies). | | HEGSETH FALLOUT CONTINUES: Europe’s still not done processing aloud Hegseth’s controversial remarks and Trump’s announcement of peace talks with Russia. Speaking in Berlin, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ warned that it is imperative “decisions are not made over the heads of the Ukrainians.” Meanwhile, chief European Union diplomat KAJA KALLAS said that “any deal behind our backs will not work. You need the Europeans, you need the Ukrainians,” in an apparent slight at Europe’s exclusion from the negotiations. Kallas also accused the White House of “appeasement.” For what it’s worth, Hegseth did try to clarify some of his comments today, saying that “everything is on the table” when it comes to negotiations to end the Ukraine war. And many (though not all) of Ukraine’s backers in Washington were not particularly surprised by Hegseth’s comments, given Trump’s skepticism towards NATO and his stated objective of brokering an end to the war in Ukraine. Moreover, Hegseth didn’t call for Ukraine to recognize Russian claims over occupied territory or rule out security guarantees as a whole. Trump’s call with Zelenskyy, they add, left the Ukrainians feeling satisfied. It may be why Zelenskyy’s response has been more muted. In a post on X today, Zelenskyy said he spoke with Polish Prime Minister DONALD TUSK, who agreed with him that “no negotiations with Putin can begin without a united position from Ukraine, Europe” and the United States. He also warned “against Putin’s claims of readiness to end the war,” but has stopped short of accusing the White House of working in bad faith. All the while, disappointment reigns in Kyiv as Ukrainians worry they won’t get a favorable peace deal at this point. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — NATO MEMBERS CONFAB: A group of U.N. envoys from two dozen NATO member states met in New York on Wednesday to coordinate their approaches to the Middle East region and how to take a tougher approach to Iran, according to two Western officials familiar with the meeting. The officials were granted anonymity to speak about a closed-door meeting. The U.S. Charges d’Affaires at the U.N. mission, DOROTHY SHEA, joined the meeting with JAVIER COLOMINA, who is NATO’s special representative for the Southern Neighborhood. The U.S. Mission to the U.N. declined to comment. CEASE-FIRE COLLAPSE AVERTED? Hamas said today it will move forward with planned hostage releases, steadying the teetering Gaza cease-fire. The militant group rejected what it described as "language of threats and intimidation" from Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but said in a statement: "Hamas reaffirms its commitment to implementing the agreement as signed, including the exchange of prisoners according to the specified timeline.” However, the deal is not out of the woods. Talks to enter the second phase of the agreement, a permanent cease-fire ending the conflict, have not yet taken off and it’s unclear if a deal will be reached before the current six-week cease-fire expires. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @jessicameyers, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @ak_mack, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130
| | | | We’ve re-imagined and expanded our Inside Congress newsletter to give you unmatched reporting on Capitol Hill politics and policy -- and we'll get it to your inbox even earlier. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY -- OUSTED NSC AIDE IN LINE FOR EUROPE STATE JOB: ALEXANDER ALDEN, who worked in the National Security Council in the first Trump administration, is the leading contender for the State Department’s top Europe job, according to four people familiar with discussions about the job. The post oversees thousands of employees in dozens of diplomatic installations in Europe and has an annual operational budget of around $300 million. But nominating Alden may bring controversy given the way his previous turn in the Trump administration ended. He was pushed out of his job in 2019 after colleagues complained about his conduct, according to three of those people and another person familiar with the situation. Alden, who denied wrongdoing, was senior director for emerging technologies and a director for defense policy at the NSC from 2018 to 2019. After a complaint was filed about his treatment of subordinates and professional conduct, Alden was required to participate in a counseling session, according to the three people, all former Trump administration officials. He was forced to leave after a female employee complained that Alden aggressively confronted and yelled at her, they said. The accuser was granted anonymity due to fear of retaliation. But a colleague she told about the alleged incident at the time, JULIE BENTZ, said she took the complaint to Alden’s boss, WILLIAM HAPPER, and the executive secretary’s office. Alden said in a statement that the allegations were “lies intended to defame my character for political purposes.” He said that he was never required to participate in a counseling session, nor was a complaint ever presented to him. “I served President Trump faithfully and with great pride,” he said. “I have provided on-the-record sources and performance reviews that refute the nameless individuals who are attacking my reputation.” A White House spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment. POLITICO interviewed five people who Alden provided as character witnesses, and most spoke highly of him. Former NSC director BROOKS BENTLEY said Alden “was a great boss” and “if there were any friction points, it was just a matter of people not understanding his passion.” But Happer — one of those references — said that while he liked Alden and thought he was helpful, he used “obscene language” with some female colleagues, who complained to HR. “It was in many cases not very tactful, and I could see how that would irritate, especially a woman.” Happer said he didn’t remember receiving anyone coming to him directly with a complaint about Alden.
| | | | A message from Helsing AI:  
| | | | | BIN LADEN MOMENT FOR AI? Here at NatSec Daily, we’ve been keeping a close eye on the ongoing conversations around artificial intelligence and how (if at all) governments should regulate the burgeoning technologies. And let’s just say comments from former Google CEO ERIC SCHMIDT about rogue states and actors using the technology surprised us. In an interview with the BBC after the Paris AI Summit, Schmidt warned that “this technology is fast enough for them to adopt that they could misuse it and do real harm,” adding that it could even mean creating weapons to facilitate “a bad biological attack. He then went on to say, “I always worry about the 'OSAMA BIN LADEN' scenario, where you have a really evil person who takes over some aspect of our modern life and uses it to harm innocent people,” alluding to the use of passenger planes during the 9/11 attacks.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – SPACESHIP FEVER CONTINUES: The UAP Disclosure Fund, one of the main groups lobbying Capitol Hill Republicans for the release of information about unidentified anomalous phenomena, is asking a new Capitol Hill UAP task force to put teeth behind its efforts for more government transparency and disclosure on the topic. In a new letter to task force leader Rep. ANNA PAULINA LUNA (R-Fla.) and House Oversight Committee chair Rep. JAMES COMER (R-Ky.), the group’s leader YUAN FUNG said it was “imperative that we increase disclosure and declassification efforts so that the American people are aware of what the government is investigating, the reasons behind these investigations, and how decisions on secrecy are made.” Notably, the letter also stressed increasing whistleblower protections and said if the task force hit government roadblocks, it should use the subpoena power that Comer has. It’s the latest signal that the UAP fever that gripped Washington and (some) corners of Capitol Hill towards the end of the Biden administration shows no signs of abating. DefenseScoop reported last week that UAP enthusiasts have felt emboldened since Trump took office, expressing their hopes that Trump administration officials and allies will back their quest to declassify sensitive government documents on the issue.
| | HOUSE CLASH OVER USAID: Republican and Democrats in the House Foreign Affairs Committee clashed today in a hearing about the dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development and the ongoing foreign aid freeze by the Trump administration, our colleague Carmen Paun writes in. Members of the two parties split across the fault line that has become familiar in recent weeks: Most Republicans accused USAID of betraying American taxpayers by funding progressive LGBTQ projects abroad, while Democrats accused the GOP, Trump and his ally, billionaire ELON MUSK, of betraying USAID staffers who do important national security work around the world. “Quite honestly, if our enemies were asked to design a foreign aid program that would actively undermine the United States of America at maximum cost to the taxpayer, they would be hard pressed to create a scheme more effective than USAID,” said Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.). Rep. GABE AMO (D-R.I.) accused Trump of betraying USAID’s American employees, but also the American farmers who sell food to it to feed people abroad and the U.S. universities that work with USAID on research to improve food security in some of the most vulnerable places in the world. MAX PRIMORAC, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation — who authored the Project 2025 chapter on USAID, laying out many of the measures Trump and Musk are now implementing — said the administration’s decision to gut the agency shows that it has lost bipartisan support.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY – DMFI DINGS KENT: An influential pro-Israel group is opposing former GOP congressional candidate JOE KENT’s nomination to head up the National Counterterrorism Center, calling it “a very dangerous appointment” and saying he is “a zealot whose blind devotion to an extremist ideology concerns us deeply.” Opposition from Democratic Majority for Israel, whose PAC spent millions in Democratic primaries last cycle, will likely add to Kent’s narrow path to confirmation and discourage some Democrats who’ve backed Trump’s national security picks, such as Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Penn.), from supporting the Washington State Republican. If swing Republicans stay on the fence supporting Kent, that could doom Kent’s nomination (though few GOP senators have actually crossed party lines on natsec nominees to date). “No one who joins a podcast hosted by a Nazi sympathizer, lifts talking points from pro-Russian Telegram channels and says government-controlled agents were part of the Jan. 6 attacks should be in charge of counterterrorism – period,” DMFI executive director MARK MELLMAN said in a statement first given to NatSec Daily. DMFI also called Kent out for previously saying Russia had “legitimate” reasons to invade Ukraine and that Zelenskyy was “installed” by the U.S. Kent, an Army Special Forces veteran who briefly served at the CIA, declined to comment. A spokesperson for the White House didn’t respond to a request for comment.
| | — The consulting firm Beacon Global Strategies has hired CRAIG SINGLETON as a senior adviser, alongside DWAYNE CLARK and ALEX RUBIN as associate vice presidents. — SARAH SCHAKOW is now director of public affairs at Cisco. She most recently was deputy assistant secretary for media relations at the Department of Homeland Security and has previously worked for Sens. GARY PETERS and JOE DONNELLY. — The Council on Foreign Relations is adding DAVID LIPTON and REBECCA PATTERSON as senior fellows in the David Rockefeller Studies Program. Lipton most recently was counselor to Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN. Patterson is an investor and macroeconomic researcher.
| | — CHRYSTIA FREELAND, The New York Times: Retaliation against Canada won’t work this time — Antonio Monte and Gema Kloppe-Santamaría, Americas Quarterly: Will Trump 2.0 play tougher on Nicaragua’s dictatorship? — The Associated Press: This is what happens to the body when HIV drugs are stopped for millions of people
| | — National Institute for Deterrence Studies, 10 a.m.: Russian strategies and intentions with its growing nuclear forces Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who always tries to make deals behind our backs. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the most honest broker we know.
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