→ Welcome to the MARK CARNEY era, however long it lasts.
→ Beyond tariffs, what we’re watching this week.
→ Catch up to a blizzard of appointments, Senate and otherwise.
DRIVING THE DAY
Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership in a landslide on Sunday in Ottawa. | AFP via Getty Images
TAKE YOUR MARK — The next election campaign is unofficially on.
MARK CARNEY rode a massive fundraising haul, remarkable polling and a belligerent DONALD TRUMP to a runaway win in a hastened race to replace JUSTIN TRUDEAU.
Carney scored 86.8 percent of all votes cast, and 85.9 percent of the overall points allocated to each federal riding — a trouncing of the competition.
Landslide is an understatement.
— The rest of the field: Former Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND managed only 7.3 percent of the vote, ahead of former Cabmin KARINA GOULD's 3.2 percent and former MP FRANK BAYLIS' 2.7 percent. (Worth noting: Gould left Cabinet for the race. She'll be back.)
— Total votes: 151,899.
The chatter around town was that Carney was a lock. As Trudeau hosted an emotional farewell reception Saturday night for current and former PMO staff at the Métropolitain, Carney packed D'Arcy McGee's pub nearby.
He had stormed out to an early lead in the seven-week campaign. Still, the Freeland camp insisted to the end that they felt good about their candidate's momentum.
Not so much, as it turned out.
Carney's valedictory speech aimed squarely at Trump and Tory foe PIERRE POILIEVRE.
→ Money line: "Donald Trump thinks he can weaken us with his plan to divide and conquer. Pierre Poilievre’s plan will leave us divided and ready to be conquered."
Poilievre's team fired back in a statement: "Carney has been hiding away from the media, and has refused to disclose his financial interests, even though they may directly go against our national interest."
→ Victory song:Carney left the stage to Down With Webster's "Time to Win," a campaign trail fave. A flavor of the lyrics: "I want diamonds in my drink tonight / I'll get diamonds in my drink tonight / I got diamonds so I drink to life / Lining down the block tonight."
— The what's next of it all: So many questions.
When will Carney be sworn in as prime minister? Who will he appoint to his Cabinet? Who will run the Prime Minister's Office? Which staff will stick around for continuity's sake? When will Canadians go to the polls? Who will run the Liberal campaign?
JANICE CHARETTE, the former Privy Council clerk reportedly heading Carney's transition team, observed the leadership announcement from a riser at the back of the room.
— Opening acts: Trudeau delivered a farewell address that opened with a customary tissue dab of the eyes. "The future is now in your hands," he closed, in what could be his final remarks to a national audience for the foreseeable future — a decade-long era, over just like that.
Former Prime Minister JEAN CHRÉTIEN delivered rousing remarks only he could deliver, pushing way past his allotted time — not that the room was too bothered by the party's eldest statesman. (A War of 1812 joke about burning down the White House? Check. A reminder that he declined to join the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq? Check.)
Sixteen-year-old ELLA-GRACE TRUDEAU introduced her dad: "I'm looking forward to seeing more of him at home and less of him online," she told the room — a recognition that the PM's kids don't live in a vacuum.
CLEO CARNEY introduced the incoming prime minister. She scored big marks for poise and oratory — maybe better reviews than her own dad, a fellow newcomer to political stages still learning the craft.
— Party time: Carney booked the Horticulture Building at Lansdowne Park for a jubilant victory bash, complete with DJ and dance floor. Freeland was at the Métropolitain. Gould posted up at the Beyond the Pale taproom in the ByWard Market. Senior staff in the Prime Minister's Office closed the evening at The Shore Club.
— What now: KYLE DUGGAN of The Canadian Press reports that Carney is heading into a day full of briefings. Liberal MPs will gather on Parliament Hill this afternoon. Expect a new Cabinet by the end of the week. The Globe reports a meeting with the provincial and territorial premiers is also on the agenda.
— What next: Insiders advise the Globe's BOB FIFE that an election will be called for either April 28 or May 5.
THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING
OK, this week we couldn't pick only three items. Here are four — in addition to all the above.
TARIFFS —U.S. President DONALD TRUMP’s plan to tighten tariffs on steel and aluminum to 25 percent is slated to take effect Wednesday.
Trump's chief economic adviser, KEVIN HASSETT, said he expects Trump to take a hard line against any request for new exclusions or country exceptions. "If I walk in and offer an exemption, I'd probably get kicked out of the office,” Hassett said. “We'll see how it goes though, maybe there will be some. I doubt it."
G7 — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is scheduled to host G7 foreign ministers in Charlevoix, Quebec. The meetings run Wednesday through Friday — and may or may not be interrupted by that Ottawa swearing-in ceremony.
INTEREST RATES — Governor TIFF MACKLEM will announce the latest interest rate update on Wednesday.
“The central bank probably will cut borrowing costs again, but that decision won’t be as easy as it might seem,” The Logic’s KEVIN CARMICHAEL explained in a preview of the decision. “The more difficult choice facing Macklem could be whether to go big.”
AMBO ALERT — Trump's pick for top Ottawa envoy, PETE HOEKSTRA, faces a Thursday morning nomination hearing in front of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Where the leaders are
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has no public events on his itinerary.
— Liberal Leader MARK CARNEY and Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE have not released their itineraries.
— Bloc Québécois Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET hosts an 11:30 a.m. press conference in West Block.
— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH has not shared his public itinerary.
— Green Co-Leader ELIZABETH MAY and Co-Leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT each have private meetings in Ottawa on their itineraries.
DULY NOTED
— Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH heads to Houston for the annual CERAWeek energy conference, as her province is bulking up its U.S.-based roster of lobbyists. Watch Tuesday’s Playbook for details.
FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA
POLL POSITION — “In your opinion, who should replace Justin Trudeau as leader of the Liberal Party?” That was the question Léger asked in a poll conducted Dec. 20-22, just days after CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s shock resignation days earlier that sent shockwaves through an exhausted Liberal Party.
At the time, 21 percent of Liberal supporters picked Freeland. MARK CARNEY was the choice of just 7 percent. Fast forward to mid-February: same pollster, same question.
Carney surged to 68 percent. Freeland fell to 14 percent. The gap widened so much that Léger eventually stopped asking about Freeland, focusing exclusively on hypothetical ballot scenarios involving the former Bank of Canada governor.
The latest 338Canada projection still shows Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives as the favorites. | AFP via Getty Images
— Line in the sand: As Carney takes the helm, polling suggests the Liberals haven’t looked this strong in two years. The latest 338Canada projection, released shortly before Carney’s victory, still sees the Conservatives as favorites — but with nowhere close to the domination we saw before JUSTIN TRUDEAU announced his resignation in early January.
The CPC averages 156 seats in the projection — 16 short of a majority. The Liberals have climbed to 143 seats. While the party's surge appears to have leveled off, the numbers suggest a rumored spring election could be a real fight.
— Le Bloc inquiet? Something few saw coming? The Bloc Québécois has slipped to just 28 seats on average, a sharp drop from January's high of 45. Polls now show Bloc support ranging from the mid-20s to low-30s in Quebec. Late last year, pollsters consistently placed the Bloc on top by double digits.
Now? Not so much.
— Oh, sugar-sugar: “But will it last?” That’s the question on many Liberals’ minds. The party's resurgence remains fragile, fueled by soft support borrowed from other parties in the wake of recent events. One Carney misstep, one bad debate, and polls could sour fast.
This could all just be one big sugar high.
— Now comes the hard part: Léger's trendline was correct. Carney's first-ballot victory surpassed all expectations. As with rival PIERRE POILIEVRE's blowout leadership victory in 2022, Carney's hold on the Liberal Party gives him a strong mandate.
Of course, uniting the party is only the first test. The next one could come sooner than later.
PAPER TRAIL
FRIDAY FUN — Everybody knew a Friday dollop of Cabinet orders would cap the prime minister's final week as Liberal leader. A federal registry ballooned with dozens of appointments and regulatory measures.
— Full Senate: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU filled every last vacancy in the Red Chamber. He tapped SANDRA PUPATELLO, a former Ontario Liberal minister; FARAH MOHAMED, CEO of The King’s Trust Canada; DAWN ARNOLD, mayor of Moncton, New Brunswick; and KATHERINE HAY, CEO of Kids Help Phone.
→ Grand total: Trudeau appointed 100 senators.
→ More vacancies soon: Five senators are due to retire before the end of the year, including DON PLETT, the head of the chamber's Conservative caucus, in May.
— So many appointments: Cabinet appointed 13 judges and filled key vacancies:
MARK FISHER is president of the Canada Water Agency. BENJAMIN ROEBUCK is federal ombudsperson for victims of crime. JONATHAN GOLDBLOOM is VIA Rail chair. MARIO BARIL is ombudsperson for the Department of National Defence and the Canadian Armed Forces. SYLVAIN VILLIARD is chair of The Jacques-Cartier and Champlain Bridges Inc. MACKY TALL is chair of the Canada Infrastructure Bank. MARYSE TREMBLAY is chair of the Canada Industrial Relations Board.
→ Also on the list: Cabinet also filled spots on the Sustainable Jobs Partnership Council, Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board, Canadian Human Rights Commission, Federal Public Sector Labour Relations and Employment Board, Employment Insurance Board of Appeals, Social Security Tribunal, Council of the Canadian Centre for Occupational Health and Safety, Canadian International Trade Tribunal and a dozen other groups and organizations.
— Big money: Ottawa snuck in a pair of pricey shipbuilding announcements over the weekend. Quebec's Davie scored a C$3.25 billion polar icebreaker contract. Halifax's Irving will build the Navy's next generation of destroyers — work valued initially at C$8 billion. (Check back later for the actual costs, which tend to balloon in Canada.)
— One more thing: Trudeau appointed DAVID ANGELL, the Global Affairs Canada political director who is playing a pivotal role organizing this week's meeting of G7 foreign ministers, to a new job: foreign and defense policy adviser to the prime minister. He starts March 31.
COUNTDOWNS
Your reminder of some key events edging ever closer.
— Calendar days until the Bank of Canada's next rate announcement: 2 … G7 foreign ministers meet in Charlevoix, Quebec: 2 … Steel/aluminum tariffs come into force: 2 … Statistics Canada's next batch of inflation data: 8 … The House's scheduled return: 14.
Which must-watch countdowns are missing from this list?Tell us!
EVENT HORIZON
HOT TICKETS — Join the Oscars of policymaking at the Public Policy Forum’s annual Testimonial Dinner on April 24 in Toronto — an extraordinary event for extraordinary times. This year PPF will be celebrating Canada’s former chief statistician ANIL ARORA; Chief CRYSTAL SMITH; Ontario’s longest-serving lieutenant governor ELIZABETH DOWDESWELL; Head of CDPQ Global MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD; Journalist STEVE PAIKIN, winner of the Hyman Solomon Award for public interest journalism; and Tribe Network CEO ALFRED BURGESSON, winner of the Emerging Leader Award. This event is always a sell-out — secure your tickets now!
MEDIA ROOM
— From ADAM SCOTTI in the Globe: I spent 15 years as Justin Trudeau’s official photographer. Here’s what I saw.
— The Globe’s ROBERT FIFE, PATRICK WHITE and JUSTINE HUNTER report that Trump raised the Columbia River Treaty among a list of grievances with Canada during a call with the PM last month.
— From POLITICO’s JORDYN DAHL: Forget penalty kicks — the real excitement at the 2026 World Cup hosted by North America will be a global trade war, or so says President Donald Trump.
Birthdays: HBD to former Prime Minister KIM CAMPBELL, Conservative MP JAKE STEWART and to Harper-era Cabinet minister GARY GOODYEAR. Greetings also to CBC News reporter and associate producer BENJAMIN LOPEZ STEVEN.
Noted: Cabmin MARCI IEN announced over the weekend that she will not run again in Toronto Centre, a riding she has held since 2020. 338Canada puts the odds of a Liberal win there in the next election at 99 percent.
Movers and shakers: JASON EASTON, a senior adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, offered some advice as he exited 80 Wellington for the last time: “Show some empathy and understanding for others. It’s OK to disagree, but try to do so agreeably.”
On Saturday, SUKHMAN GILL was selected to be the Conservative candidate in Abbotsford-South Langley, British Columbia. Last week, former B.C. Finance Minister MIKE DE JONG claimed the party advised him he was not qualified to run there. Ahead of the vote, sitting MP ED FAST wrote Conservatives to endorse another candidate while flagging “very real concerns about who will represent us in the future.”
Spotted: Conservative MP BRAD REDEKOPP, opening a campaign office in Saskatoon West. Caucus colleagues ANDREW SCHEER and KELLY BLOCK also attended.
In memoriam: Former Globe journalist MARTIN O’MALLEY has died. In an obit, ALAN FREEMAN recalls that as a 27-year-old editorial page writer for The Globe and Mail, O’Malley wrote, “The state’s responsibility should be to legislate rules for a well-ordered society. … It has no right or duty to creep into the bedrooms of the nation.” Soon after, Prime Minister PIERRE TRUDEAUdeclared the same.
Friday's answer:MITCHELL SHARP once appeared as a piano soloist with the Toronto Symphony Orchestra.
Props to ANDREW SZENDE and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.
Today’s question: Credit for this question goes to KATE DALGLEISH. Which PM was alive at the same time as every other prime minister? (That includes the incoming MARK CARNEY, who was 8 years old when our mystery PM died.)
