The US is now locked in a trade war with China, with the Trump administration wielding the American economy as a weapon against a nation incidentally responsible for inordinate amounts of trade with the US. Today, the US imports almost three times as much from China as they do from us. Really: we charted it, every dollar of it — take a look.
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Apple pulled the ultimate AirDrop to beat President Trump's tariffs: airlifting 600 tons of iPhones — as many as 1.5 million devices — from India to the US via chartered cargo flights.
US stocks had a nasty hangover yesterday and gave back a big chunk of the prior session's gains as the relief rally petered out. The S&P 500 fell 3.5%, the Nasdaq 100 slumped 4.2%, and the Russell 2000 finished with a 4.3% decline.
Every S&P 500 sector ETF declined, save for consumer staples. Energy brought up the rear with a massive 6.5% loss, while tech also lagged.
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The US is now locked in a trade war with China, with the Trump administration wielding the American economy as a weapon against a nation incidentally responsible for inordinate amounts of trade with the US. Today, the US imports almost three times as much from China as they do from us. Really: we charted it, every dollar of it — take a look.
This fight is poised to disrupt a consistent and otherwise growing trade between the two nations, and anyone with skin in the game on the global economy is going to have to trade through it.
While it's almost certainly just apocryphal that the phrase originated in China, we certainly do live in interesting times. Here are just a few things beguiling traders.
May you live in interesting times: After tanking with the rest of the market, a basket of US stocks with the biggest sales exposure to China had its second-best session ever on Wednesday. On Thursday, those stocks underperformed by 2% and were down over 5%, a very bad session. If you don't like the weather, just wait a few hours.
May you come to the attention of those in authority: Trump has now slapped 145% tariffs on most Chinese imports. Meanwhile, China announced that it would increase the 34% tariffs it had in place on US imports to 84%. This is not the kind of tit-for-tat sparring that typically signals a deescalation. If you're a CEO, good luck planning your orders for the next 60 to 90 days.
May the gods give you everything you ask for: Semiconductors were spared this. For now. Nvidia is back to being one of the heaviest weights in the stock market, but at what cost? Analysts are saying most in the industry think that semiconductors' exemption just means the semiconductor tariffs are going to be handled differently anyway. Not exactly a reprieve!
THE TAKEAWAY
Traders will have to do their best to anticipate the moves of two superpowers that are doing their best to keep their next moves unpredictable.Good luck!
Pro traders don't just use the current buy and sell price to make a decision. They keep real-time visibility on other traders' buy and sell orders (aka the order book) to anticipate potential shifts. Nasdaq TotalView unlocks that view for pros and non-pro retail investors.
Today marks the unofficial start of earnings season, with JPMorgan and other big financial firms reporting right around the time this email hits your inbox. As earnings kick off, one of the most tried-and-true stock market rules for the reporting period has been completely torn asunder by the trade war.
Typically, the implied correlation of S&P 500 stocks — that is, how much the members of the index are priced to move independently or in unison — tumbles as we approach the start of earnings. That makes sense, as different things matter for different companies, so stocks are expected to react to company-specific news rather than larger macro trends.
But not this time, as everyone and their mother is focused on one common factor: how much do tariffs change a company's outlook. So far, the answer is, "I'm not sure."
Same goes for Constellation Brands, which reported on Wednesday and noted uncertainty on what to price in tariffs on. Cans? The beer inside the cans? Both?
So, what we're seeing is implied correlations doing the opposite of what they usually do in this window, as this chart shows.
THE TAKEAWAY
As the old adage goes, in a crisis, all correlations go to one. And a recession, for both markets and humans, is a crisis, because as much as you might hate to hear it, the stock market is the economy. We're living in historically volatile times and even a story about how tariffs could push down inflation — which sounds like good news! — turns out to be bad news in the end.
Apple added nearly $400 billion to its market cap on Wednesday, with shares soaring more than 15% on Wednesday — the company's biggest single-day gain since 1998.
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MOVES
Yesterday's Big Daily Movers
Royal Caribbean sank after analysts chopped their price target for the cruise line
Carmakers Tesla, GM, and Ford all fellafter UBS analysts slashed price targets
Nvidia also sank (notice a trend?) after an analyst's warning that tariff trouble "is not over"
Earnings expected from JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock
Advertiser's disclosures:
1 Stock markets are volatile and can fluctuate significantly in response to company, industry, political, regulatory, market, or economic developments. Investing in stock involves risks, including the loss of principal. Before investing, carefully assess whether a particular stock aligns with your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation.
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