A surprisingly positive debt-limit vibe check

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May 15, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels

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With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross

President Joe Biden speaks to members of the media as he goes on a bike ride in Rehoboth Beach, Del.

President Joe Biden sounded surprisingly immersed in the policy weeds of a potential debt limit agreement when he interrupted a Mother’s Day bike ride in Rehoboth yesterday. | Carolyn Kaster/AP Photo

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DRIVING THE DAY

DEMOCRACY ABROAD — Latest in Turkey, via AP: “Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, who has ruled his country with an increasingly firm grip for 20 years, was locked in a tight election race early Monday, with a make-or-break runoff against his chief challenger possible as the final votes were counted.” … Latest in Thailand, via Reuters: “Thailand’s opposition secured a stunning election win on Sunday after trouncing parties allied with the military, setting the stage for a flurry of deal-making over forming a government in a bid to end nearly a decade of conservative, army-backed rule.”

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — “Vice Media to Sell Itself as It Files for Bankruptcy,” by WSJ’s Dave Sebastian: “The company, whose assets include Vice News, Vice TV, Refinery29 and Motherboard, on Monday said a group of its creditors, including Soros Fund Management, Fortress Investment Group and Monroe Capital has agreed to buy Vice for about $225 million and take on ‘significant liabilities.’ … The bankruptcy filing marks the latest downfall in the wave of digital media platforms that once threatened traditional news outlets.”

DEBT LIMIT LATEST — The prospects for a deal to raise the debt limit seem a bit brighter this morning:

  1. White House and congressional staffers continued meeting through the weekend, and on Saturday, Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN — whose role heretofore has mostly been to keep the pressure on Congress — gave an uncharacteristically positive update. “I’m hopeful,” she told the WSJ. “I think the negotiations are very active. I’m told they have found some areas of agreement.” Deputy Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO was similarly upbeat yesterday on CNN; note that he, too, described what’s happening as “negotiations” after Biden administration officials spent months insisting there would be no such thing.
  1. President JOE BIDEN sounded surprisingly immersed in the policy weeds of a potential agreement when he interrupted a Mother’s Day bike ride in Rehoboth yesterday. Asked whether he’d be open to tougher work requirements for government aid, a key GOP ask, he said, “I voted for tougher aid programs that’s in the law now, but for Medicaid it's a different story. And so I’m waiting to hear what their exact proposal is.”


    That’s a reference to the 1996 welfare reform bill that Biden supported and BILL CLINTON signed — and a suggestion that he could give some ground on GOP efforts to tighten work requirements in the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program established in that law.


    The White House further clarified this position after the gaggle: “As the President said, Medicaid is a different story, and the President has been clear that he will not accept proposals that take away peoples' health coverage,” said spokesman MICHAEL KIKUKAWA. “The President has also been clear that he will not accept policies that push Americans into poverty. He will evaluate whatever proposals Republicans bring to the table based on those principles."


    So take that as a provisional yes to TANF changes and no to Medicaid changes, with the “push Americans into poverty” test suggesting that the White House is still mulling stricter work requirements for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), aka food stamps. But as our Meredith Lee Hill notes, new SNAP restrictions are “a strict red line for many Hill Dems.”

  2. The White House messaging on the debt limit has been to condemn the GOP’s brinkmanship and the details of the House-passed bill. But Biden on Sunday struck a very different tone.


    “It never is good to characterize a negotiation in the middle of a negotiation,” he said. “I remain optimistic because I'm a congenital optimist. But I really think there’s a desire on their part, as well as ours, to reach an agreement, and I think we'll be able to do it.”


    As a reminder, plenty needs to be hashed out, including (1) the duration of any spending caps, (2) how much unspent Covid money to claw back, (3) the substance of a permitting deal, (4) the aforementioned work requirements and (5) how soon we need to do all of this again.

  3. In a further sign of progress, Biden also confirmed he would likely meet again with House and Senate leaders on Tuesday, a day before he’s scheduled to leave for a weeklong foreign trip. Keep an eye on his travel itinerary this week: White House press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE confirmed Friday he’s “expecting to go” on the trip, which starts with the G-7 summit in Japan, but subsequent stops in Papua New Guinea and Australia could be lopped off if default looms with little further progress.

Related reads: “How the Supreme Court might view the debt limit fight,” by Betsy Woodruff Swan … “Plunging Tax Revenue Accelerates Debt-Ceiling Deadline,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin

 

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TRUMP AND DeSANTIS SPEAK — Significant new interviews with both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are out this morning, and they tell you a lot about the two men’s media strategies.

The Trump interview is a free-wheeling 30-minute encounter with our old friend and former colleague Marc Caputo, who is now at The Messenger, a new media startup launching today.

Some highlights…

  • Trump on his CNN town hall: “[T]hey had one of the best [viewership] days in years. So you would think they would claim success. I was amazed to see that they were traumatized by what took place. They were actually traumatized. I think that instead of acting the way they did, they should have said, ‘we had a tremendous ratings night, one of the best in years, many years,’ and spiked the football, right?”
  • On DeSantis challenging him: “He was dead, dead as a doornail [in 2018]. And I revived him. … I’m a loyal person. If that happened to me, I would never run against the guy that did that. He’s got plenty of years left. And I think if he runs, he's gonna lose MAGA votes forever. That's my opinion. And the MAGA votes are almost everything in the Republican Party, far bigger than you think.”
  • On whether he would ever endorse DeSantis: “It’s too early to say. So far, I'm not a fan of the way that he's running.”
  • On DeSantis attacking a “culture of losing” in the GOP: “Ron's not a winner because Ron without me wouldn't have won. If I would have left it alone, he would have lost by 30 points or more.”
  • On why he thinks DeSantis is doing poorly: “He's got no personality. And I don't think he's got a lot of political skill.”
  • On abortion: “First of all, I'm a believer in the exceptions, right? And just as RONALD REAGAN was a believer in the exceptions, but I'm a believer in the exceptions … the life of the mother, raping and incest.  … The other thing I really believe is that the radicals are people that would have a baby destroyed, killed at the end of the ninth month or even after birth.”
  • On DeSantis signing a six-week abortion ban bill in Florida: “Well, he has to do what he has to do. If you look at what DeSantis did, a lot of people don't even know if he knew what he was doing. But he signed six weeks, and many people within the pro-life movement feel that that was too harsh.”
  • On whether he would sign a national six-week abortion ban: “I'm looking at all [options].”
  • On ChatGPT: “I've been watching it. Yeah, a very dangerous subject.”

Meanwhile, DeSantis talks to The American Conservative about his fight with Disney. It’s a soft piece in line with the governor’s take-no-risks media strategy. But it does help tease out some of DeSantis’s thinking about the debate on the right between libertarians, who are aghast at his use of the state to retaliate against a private company, and big-government conservatives who are eager to see elected officials attack “corporate welfare,” even if it’s only in highly selective cases.

“If you look at some of these companies, like Google, and look at the footprint that they have, they don't necessarily offend historical antitrust law because the antitrust law is focusing on jacking up prices on people,” DeSantis argues. “But I would say they’re exercising way more power than Standard Oil ever did, or any of the trust of the early 20th century. So the question is, is it okay to have a handful of private power centers that really, really dominate our society? And is it appropriate to have something like an antitrust principle applied there? I think it probably would be appropriate.”

Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with what you want to see in a debt limit deal: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.

 

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THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Biden and congressional leaders meet to discuss the debt limit. Former Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank executives testify before the Senate Banking Committee. Primary elections in Kentucky and Philadelphia. Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) releases “Manhood: The Masculine Virtues America Needs.” … Wednesday: Biden leaves Washington for planned weeklong trip to Pacific Rim nations. … Thursday: Financial regulators, including Fed Vice Chair MICHAEL BARR and FDIC Chair MARTIN GRUENBERG, testify before Senate Banking. Energy Secretary JENNIFER GRANHOLM, Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.) and others appear at POLITICO Energy Summit. … Friday: G-7 summit opens in Hiroshima, Japan.

BIDEN’S MONDAY:

8:25 a.m.: The Bidens will leave Rehoboth Beach, Del., to travel to Philadelphia, arriving at 9:40 a.m.

3 p.m.: The Bidens will leave Philly to return to the White House, arriving at 4:05 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS’ MONDAY — The VP has nothing on her public schedule.

THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. to take up BRADLEY GARCIA’s judicial nomination, with a vote at 5:30 p.m.

THE HOUSE will meet at noon and take up a couple of pieces of legislation at 2 p.m. The Rules Committee will meet at 5 p.m. to take up multiple pieces of legislation related to police and law enforcement.

 

DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE.

 
 

PHOTO OF THE DAY

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for talks in the Chancellery in Berlin, Germany.

In this handout image provided by the German Government Press Office, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz receives Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for talks in the Chancellery on Sunday, May 14, in Berlin, Germany. | Jesco Denzel/Bundesregierung via Getty Images

PLAYBOOK READS

2024 WATCH

DeSANTIS’ MILLION-DOLLAR QUESTION — The Florida governor is trying to pitch himself as a more electable Republican than Trump. There’s just one problem: framing Trump as a loser might require him to acknowledge the reality that Trump lost the 2020 election — which he’s so far been unwilling to state, Sally Goldenberg reports this morning. With fake voter fraud conspiracy theories having infected a large swath of the GOP primary electorate, debunking them could risk DeSantis’ political standing. And yet it’s hard to make the pitch that he’s the better standard-bearer without tapping into Trump’s failure.

JUST POSTED — “Biden team aims to compete in North Carolina, test ground in Florida,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer and Tyler Pager: “The strategy — which has been briefed to donors in recent weeks and has been signaled in early television advertising buys by the Democratic National Committee — comes as the party and Biden’s team make plans to focus most of their organizing and spending energy on the states that Biden won in 2020.”

ANOTHER NAME IN THE MIX — Former Energy Secretary and Texas Gov. RICK PERRY told CNN yesterday that he’s considering a third run for president.

WORKING THE SYSTEM — “Trump Changed GOP Rules to Make Winning the Nomination Even Easier — for Trump,” by Bloomberg’s Gregory Korte

MORE POLITICS

HOW GARY PETERS SEES IT — The DSCC chair tells Burgess Everett and Holly Otterbein that he won’t meddle in GOP Senate primaries to elevate more extreme candidates — but Senate Democrats are very much resting their hopes of holding the Senate on bad Republican nominees. Sen. JACKY ROSEN’s (D-Nev.) backers are praying they get election denier JIM MARCHANT (though the GOP establishment is trying to encourage SAM BROWN) — one of many such states with a similar dynamic. Unlike the DSCC, Senate Majority PAC isn’t ruling out primary interference. And with Dems mostly playing defense on the Senate map, they’re focused on highlighting the furthest-right GOP contenders.

BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE — New York Republican ALISON ESPOSITO is considering a challenge to swing-seat Democratic Rep. PAT RYAN, the Washington Examiner’s Emily Jacobs reports. Esposito was the party’s nominee for lieutenant governor last year.

THE FUTURE IS NOW — “AI presents political peril for 2024 with threat to mislead voters,” by AP’s David Klepper and Ali Swenson: “The threat posed by AI and so-called deepfakes always seemed a year or two away. No more.”

THE WHITE HOUSE

TOP-ED — “I’m doing everything I can to reduce gun violence, but Congress must do more,” by Biden in USA Today

CONGRESS

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT — “Capitol Hill Staffer Is A Prominent Follower Of Neo-Nazi Nick Fuentes,” by Talking Points Memo’s Hunter Walker: “TPM has uncovered an extensive digital trail of interconnected Groyper social media pages using variations of the ‘ChickenRight’ and ‘Chikken’ handles that can be linked to WADE SEARLE, who works as the digital director for Rep. PAUL GOSAR (R-AZ). … ChickenRight’s posting on far-right websites and Searle’s alleged involvement with [NICK] FUENTES occurred before and after he started working in Gosar’s Capitol Hill office. Gosar, his chief of staff, his press secretary, and Searle have not responded to multiple detailed requests for comment.”

SINEMATOGRAPHY — “How Kyrsten Sinema Uses Campaign Cash for Her Marathon Habit,” by The Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey: “The Boston trip was far from the first time that [Sen. KYRSTEN] SINEMA has appeared to fuse a donor get-together onto a personal racing trip allowing her to write off travel costs. On at least six total occasions since 2019, Sinema has participated in a race while engaging in fundraising activity — and covering expenses — in the area of the competition … A spokesperson for Sinema did not respond.”

HOW IT’S PLAYING — “California Democrats further torn after seeing Sen. Feinstein’s return to Washington,” by the L.A. Times’ Seema Mehta and Benjamin Oreskes: “[A]mong some California Democrats, [Sen. DIANNE] FEINSTEIN’s return did little to quell concern about her likely effectiveness in the Senate.”

 

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JUDICIARY SQUARE

HOT ON THE LEFT — “Planned Parenthood calls for major judicial reform,” by Axios’ Oriana González: “Planned Parenthood is calling for the major reform of the federal judiciary less than a year after the fall of Roe v. Wade, including expanding the Supreme Court and adding term limits. … The organization is also demanding an end to single-judge divisions.”

WAITING FOR JUSTICE — “The Supreme Court outlawed split juries, but hundreds remain in prison anyway,” by NPR’s Jason Breslow

WAR IN UKRAINE

A DIFFERENT KIND OF X DATE — The latest U.S. package of aid to Ukraine has only $6 billion of $48 billion left, potentially teeing up a congressional battle over more assistance by the middle of the summer, Paul McLeary, Anthony Adragna and Joe Gould report this morning. The Hill doesn’t know when the White House will ask for more funding, as the administration discusses its next request. There’s broad support for Ukraine in Congress — but there’s also a faction of conservative opposition to more aid that’s grown since the last approval in December. And with lawmakers uncertain about when the Pentagon will run out of money to draw down its stockpiles, some fear that this could crash into the debt ceiling debate.

ABSOLUTELY WILD — “Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says,” by WaPo’s Shane Harris and Isabelle Khurshudyan: “YEVGENIY PRIGOZHIN said he would tell Ukraine’s military where to attack Russian troops if they pulled their own forces back from the beleaguered city of Bakhmut, where Wagner mercenaries were taking heavy losses.”

AMERICA AND THE WORLD

WHAT TO EXPECT AT THE G-7 — At the G-7 meeting in Japan this week, world leaders will crank out tighter sanctions targeting Russian energy and trade, Reuters’ Trevor Hunnicutt and Andreas Rinke scoop. Though details will still need to be ironed out, the G-7 plans to try to tackle Russian sanctions loopholes through third countries. The G-7 is also planning to issue a joint statement implicitly blasting China by condemning economic retaliation of other countries, WSJ’s Annie Linskey, Ken Thomas and Yuka Hayashi report.

BEYOND THE BELTWAY

AFTER TITLE 42 — The first few days after the Title 42 asylum policy ended have seen dropping numbers of border-crossers compared to last week, confounding predictions, AP’s Elliot Spagat reports from Tijuana, Mexico. Court fights over administration policies will continue today. But at the border, most migrants are more focused on navigating the CBP One app. In Ciudad Juarez, Reuters’ Daina Beth Solomon and Jose Luis Gonzalez document the Dominicans, Guatemalans and other migrants who were among the first groups to try to cross after Title 42 — and were turned away, told to use CBP One instead, as tough restrictions on asylum continue nonetheless.

Meanwhile, the risks of humanitarian crisis along the border are growing, worsened by heavy rainfall lifting the Rio Grande’s levels higher, NBC’s Evan Bush and Alicia Victoria Lozano report.

What it’s like: “She helped other migrants seek asylum ahead of Title 42’s end. Now it’s her turn,” by the L.A. Times’ Andrea Castillo and Patrick McDonnell in San Luis Rio Colorado, Mexico

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Bill Cassidy took his Social Security pitch around the Hill.

Dan Crenshaw is going to become a dad.

Maureen Dowd got her master’s from Columbia.

Tom Nichols was on last night’s episode of “Succession.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Calvin Moore is joining GOP ad firm Poolhouse as VP. He previously was comms director for Congressional Leadership Fund and a strategist for its independent expenditure efforts.

WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Ana Unruh Cohen is joining the White House Council on Environmental Quality as senior director for clean energy, infrastructure and NEPA. She currently is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, and is a Hill alum.

MEDIA MOVE — Alisa Wiersema is joining CBS News as a political producer. She previously was a producer with ABC News’ political unit.

TRANSITIONS — Former Rep. Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.) is joining Williams & Jensen as a principal. … Jonah Bryson is now press secretary for AmeriCorps. He previously was a spokesman for the NAACP. … Matt Schuck is now an SVP at Actum LLC. He most recently was senior major gifts officer at American Cornerstone Institute Inc., and is a Trump HUD and Jason Smith alum. …

… Aziz Yakub is joining Arena as director of career development. He previously managed Adam Frisch’s Colorado congressional campaign. … Austin Sams is joining the team of U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield as her new special assistant. He most recently was special assistant to Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.). … Kayla Ratnasamy is now deputy director of scheduling for the secretary of Education. She most recently was special assistant to the NASA administrator.

WEEKEND WEDDING — Tess Whittlesey, comms director for Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), and Justin Oswald, special assistant to the president in the office of legislative affairs at the White House, got married Saturday at the Meridian House. They met at her birthday party at the Codmother six years ago.PicAnother pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: NYT’s Eli Saslow, Elisabeth Bumiller and Nick Confessore … WaPo’s Ruth Marcus … Chicago Sun-Times’ Lynn SweetRob SimmsAnne Marie MalechaNick Papas of Airbnb … Jacqueline CorteseVarun Krovi James GlueckPhilo HallRachel Kelly of Mastercard … Billy Brawner of Brawner Communications … Jennifer JoseDiane Cullo … former HHS Secretary Kathleen SebeliusDavid Watts Donna Leinwand Leger Barry LaSala Dan Rothschild of GMU’s Mercatus Center … Jen Stout … Herald Group’s CC JaegerAaron Morrissey Linda Hall Daschle

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