Trudeau preps to head Eastward

May 15, 2023

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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Kyle Duggan, with Zi-Ann Lum. Today, a quick look at the Prime Minister’s trips abroad, the House rushes into its final break week, and all eyes on Alberta politics.

Talk of the town

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Join us May 23 at the Hose and Hound Neighbourhood Pub. First round starts at 7 p.m. We’ll have a special guest quizmaster to ask a round of questions.

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Looking Ahead

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks during an interview with foreign media members at the prime minister's office on April 20, 2023, in Tokyo. | AP

CHANGE OF PACE — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU gets a reprieve from fielding questions on foreign interference and passport design this week for a bout of international travel, armed with a string of announceables.

He heads to Seoul for a bilat on May 16, marking the first prime ministerial visit to South Korea since Stephen Harper in 2014. Then he’ll rush off to Japan for the G-7 on the 19th.

Asian affairs expert and UBC professor PAUL EVANS tells Playbook he expects business as usual in bilateral relations but the G-7 meetings come at “a pretty pivotal moment” in an increasingly nervous region over tensions between China and the U.S.

Some key things to watch out of the PM’s travels:

— LNG: How Canada balances its language as it visits liquified natural gas export markets eyed by Canadian businesses.

— Security situation: A government official told reporters Friday it will be a “very different” G-7 than that of four or five years ago, but one unified around Ukraine and China, with both countries expected to come up as topics in a “through line for the entire summit.”

— Global south: Don’t just watch what Canada and the usual characters say. Invites were sent to countries from the South Pacific, Africa and elsewhere. “The G-7 footprint is declining,” Evans said, noting how the world is divided over Ukraine. “It's extremely important, but (the G-7) is declining as a percentage of the world views on where things should be going.”

— Foreign interference: “I would be very surprised if there were much discussion of Chinese interference activities,” Evans said. “It’s not one that’s on the boil in Asian countries that have been experiencing this kind of stuff for a long time.”

PLAN A RETURN TRIP — Evans also said it’s “not a hard prediction to make” that the PM will probably end up traveling to Asia more often as the region becomes increasingly important amid a changing global context, but the big question there will be which reasons bring him back.

AT A GLANCE — ZI-ANN LUM details the whole trip schedule for Pro Canada PM subscribers. In Seoul on Wednesday, Trudeau will meet with business leaders to lure companies into investing in Canada, with key words being batteries and transportation. His meeting later with President Yoon Suk Yeol wraps with a joint presser. Thursday, Trudeau marks Canada’s contributions to the Korean war at a ceremony opening the Kapyong Battle commemorative trail.

Over at POLITICO’s China Watch newsletter, Stuart Lau runs down some of the main issues to come up at the G-7 meet.

— Fun fact: The summit is being hosted in Japan Prime Minister FUMIO KISHIDA’s hometown and electoral district of Hiroshima — a big change from the remote reaches of Kashikojima, Mie Prefecture from the last time Japan played host. Although, leaders will get to take a family photo of sorts at a fan-favorite Instagram spot among travelers to the region: the “floating” Itsukushima shrine on Miyajima island, which is normally home to more people-curious deer than politicians.

WHAT WE REALLY WANT TO KNOW — Move over coronation quiche. A food academy is hoping everyone at the G-7 will take home recipes to try to recreate some custom summit dishes. It may be the key question of the entire meet: How will the special G-7 okonomiyaki (a dish often characterized to Westerners as a sort of Japanese pizza or pancake, but tastes nothing like either) themed for Canada taste? And might it become more controversial than broad beans? It boasts apples and maple syrup, which might make it a safer bet.

Know someone who could use Ottawa Playbook? Direct them to this link. Five days a week, zero dollars.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING

MONDAY HOUSE VOTE — The Commons is expected to wrap up on C-13, an overhaul of the Official Languages Act, at third reading after Question Period today and possibly send it off to the Senate.

Official Languages Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR told reporters in French on Friday “le gros secret” is where the Conservatives stand ahead of the big vote.

The bill has been controversial with Quebec’s English-speaking community — and among some of the delegates at the recent Liberal Party convention — over concerns that it nods to Quebec’s Bill 96 and could one day be justified to limit English services.

CTV commentator TOM MULCAIR is curious to find out if there might be consequences for ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER and SHERRY ROMANADO over their positions in a whipped vote Thursday (voted against and abstained, respectively). Housefather has said he hopes the Senate will amend the bill once it lands there.

CHONG TAKES COMMITTEE SPOTLIGHT — Conservative MP MICHAEL CHONG will be the star witness at the procedure and House affairs committee Tuesday evening. He’s set to testify into the alleged “intimidation campaign” Canada’s intelligence service informed him was directed at him and his family.

BREAK WEEK RUSH — The big question looming over the Liberal’s gun legislation, Bill C-21: Just how much turbulence will the controversial legislation encounter as it reaches its last stages in the lower chamber? Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO’s bill is a major priority for the Liberals and is set to be rushed off to the Senate ahead of the upcoming break week — the last before the final stretch ahead of summer. Expect debate to intensify Tuesday and Wednesday, as it clears report stage and reaches third reading and a final vote.

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa; her itinerary includes private meetings in the morning and Question Period later in the afternoon.

NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH will hold a media availability before attending QP. Later in the afternoon he’ll meet with the TransLink Mayors' Council.

10:30 a.m. NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE holds a presser in West Block on his private member's motion to give the House more say over matters of confidence and prorogation.

ALBERTA WATCH

T-MINUS 14 DAYS — David Coletto of Abacus Data may have set the week’s media narrative over the weekend with a poll (that he was teasing for days) showing the NDP leading province-wide.

“The Alberta NDP has won the first few weeks of the campaign — or, the UCP and Danielle Smith have lost it,” Coletto said of the survey, which was conducted May 9 to 12. Details and methodology are here.

He summarized the takeaways on Twitter:

NDP leads UCP, gaining undecided votes.
NDP ahead in Calgary, dominates Edmonton, UCP leads elsewhere.
NDP favored by under 45s, women, and racialized communities.
UCP leader Danielle Smith faces negative impressions.
Close race perception may boost turnout.

Quick thoughts from Alberta watchers:
DAVID CLIMENHAGA, Alberta Politics: “Narrative matters in election campaigns and results like these contribute to a narrative.”

PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, 338Canada: “Some serious movement.” Fournier updated his aggregated poll numbers. “It's a coin flip at this point,” he later tweeted.

EVAN SCRIMSHAW, Unscripted: “Smith might lose this election, but the rush to declare she has lost it already is nonsense.”

Mainstreet Research meanwhile found a significantly different result. It pegged decided voters at 50 percent UCP, 44 percent NDP from a poll fielded during the same period. But pollster QUITO MAGGI tweeted that the “top lines are deceiving” and “unless things change significantly,” the Alberta UCP are “headed for a loss.” He also teased Mainstreet will be conducting Alberta riding polls in the week ahead.

— Alberta NDP Leader RACHEL NOTLEY launched her week on the TV circuit by stating she “completely” disagrees with JAGMEET SINGH on oil and gas subsidies, underscoring her party is not like the federal NDP and that it’s better to have the sector on-side in talks about emissions reduction. JASON MARKUSOFF has this analysis on the divide between the federal and provincial NDP.

— DAVE COURNOYER has been tracking party nominations and keeping a list of election candidates. The CBC’s JASON MARKUSOFF used a Twitter thread to consider the state of play: “349 candidates province-wide. 49.9% of them are running for the NDP or UCP.”

— Ahead this week: UCP Leader DANIELLE SMITH and Notley will square off in a debate co-produced by CTV News Edmonton and Global News.

For your radar

OFF TO THE RACES — Circle June 19. That’s when four byelections will be held to replace outgoing MPs MARC GARNEAU, DAVE MACKENZIE, CANDICE BERGEN and the late JIM CARR. All seats are considered safe for the parties currently holding the ridings, although MAXIME BERNIER’s bid for Portage-Lisgar will remain high on the media radar. With a quick check of the calendar, the House may even be still sitting when the votes are counted.

ZEROING IN ON WEAK SPOTS — Another online poll by Abacus Data fielded over the same period as the Alberta survey tests how Canadians feel about Trudeau and Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE. The former scores badly on understanding the circumstances of the average Canadian, at 30 percent, while the latter hits highs on being “too extreme,” at 44 percent.

Coletto said he’s still analyzing the research but tweeted this quick take: “Many people haven't paid much attention to their choices yet but among those who have an opinion, Poilievre has a substantially stronger image than Trudeau.”

MEDIA ROOM

— CP’s MIA RABSON and LIAM CASEY profile “energizer bunny” dealmaker FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE.

— Trudeau's previous national security adviser VINCENT RIGBY said on CBC’s Rosemary Barton Live he never saw a CSIS report suggesting Beijing was targeting family members of a Canadian lawmaker.

— NDP MP JENNY KWAN is also on the Chinese government’s radar, Global’s CHRISTA DAO and DARRIAN MATASSA-FUNG report.

— DANIEL LEBLANC reports: Former ambassador repays Crown corporation for moving her artwork.

— Quebec Premier FRANÇOIS LEGAULT won his CAQ party’s backing with numbers any Canadian party leader would be jealous of: nearly 99 percent.

— The Star scoop, in case you missed it: Ottawa is being forced to renegotiate with Stellantis amid concerns it will scrap an EV battery plant unless Ottawa and provincial governments match subsidies given to Volkswagen.

— There are 102 candidates on the ballot in Toronto’s mayoral race. The Star’s EDWARD KEENAN considers the six leading contenders.

— DAVID THURTON of CBC News reports that the Trans Mountain expansion project owes its lenders at least C$23 billion and is looking to take on more private debt.

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Early peek a Trudeau’s G-7 plans.

In other news for Pro subscribers:
— Biden is scrambling for minerals. This U.S. cobalt mine just closed.
— Former New York Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney picked for OECD ambassador post.
— Power grid can’t handle Biden’s climate rule, industry groups say.
— Musk's new Twitter CEO could heal damaged brand, advocates say.
— Debt limit X-date could still crash Congress’ summer break.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Senator PATRICIA BOVEY is 75! Also celebrating: House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA, MP FAYÇAL EL-KHOURY, former MP BRAD TROST and RAY PENNINGS, executive VP of Cardus.

Spotted: ALEX MARLAND, contemplating Canadian politics from a Paris balcony … MP JEAN YIP, in the tulips: “my favourite spring memory.” … ALEX PARTRIDGE of the British High Commission and “a moment of Canadian Zen.”

RICHARD ARBEITER, ambassador and deputy permanent representative of Canada to the U.N., making “Mom’s Marble Cake” … And speaking of baked goods: Globe energy reporter EMMA GRANEY ready for Eurovision.

Movers and shakers: Over at Finance, Assistant Deputy Minister ISABELLE JACQUES will leave behind the financial sector policy branch to become associate deputy minister of justice on May 23.

Sen. RAYMONDE GAGNÉ has become the 46th Speaker of the Senate. “She will have her hands full trying to contain the behavior of a small, hyper-partisan group who aspire for the Senate to be an ‘off-Broadway version of the House,’” tweeted Sen. Colin Deacon.

Media mentions: CBC Radio's SHELAGH ROGERS has plans to retire.

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

On the Hill

— Find the latest House committee meetings here.

— Keep track of Senate committees here.

9 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is at the Biosphère in Montreal to make an announcement about nature and biodiversity.

10 a.m. A coalition of groups present a parliamentary petition sponsored by NDP MP ALEXANDRE BOULERICE to have May 15 recognized as Nakba Day.

10:30 a.m. NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE holds a presser in West Block on his private member's motion to give the House more say over matters of confidence and prorogation.

11 a.m. The House fisheries committee meets to continue its study of foreign ownership and corporate concentration of fishing licenses quota.

11 a.m. MARYSCOTT GREENWOOD of the Canadian American Business Council will be the first witness at the House international trade committee as it studies non-tariff barriers. The roster of witnesses includes the Canadian Canola Growers Association, the Canadian Pork Council, the Canola Council of Canada, and Cereals Canada.

11 a.m. The Canadian Centre for Ethics in Sport, Own the Podium, and Sport'Aide will be at the House heritage committee to discuss safe sport in Canada.

11:30 a.m. International Trade Minister MARY NG meets with ALFRED MUTUA, Kenya’s Cabinet secretary for foreign and diaspora affairs, in Ottawa. Mutua’s arrival in Canada comes two weeks after Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY’s visit to Kenya.

3:30 p.m. The House government and operations committee meets to take Bill C-290 through clause-by-clause consideration.

3:30 p.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX visits the House Indigenous and northern affairs committee.

3:30 p.m. The House citizenship and immigration committee takes Bill S-245 through clause-by-clause consideration with four department officials.

3:30 p.m. The House justice committee will be studying Bill C-295. It will hear first from department officials, then from Canadian Network for the Prevention of Elder Abuse, Elder Abuse Prevention Ontario and CanAge.

4 p.m. Ng joins a virtual meeting with the Global Trade and Gender Arrangement and Inclusive Trade Action Group members.

4 p.m. The Senate national security committee meets to hear from Royal Canadian Mounted Police officials before going in-camera to talk about Bill C-47.

4 p.m. Public Service Alliance of Canada National President CHRIS AYLWARD will be on the second panel at the Senate human rights committee's study of anti-Black racism, sexism and systemic discrimination at the Canadian Human Rights Commission.

5 p.m. The Senate official languages committee meets to continue their study of minority-language health services.

— Behind closed doors: The House veterans affairs committee has reports to review. The House public affairs committee will also review draft reports. The House environment committee continues its in camera discussion of its study on fossil fuels subsidies. The House agriculture committee will be working on its study on food inflation.

TRIVIA

Friday’s answer: Olympic gold and silver medalist NANCY GREEN RAINE was known as Canada’s “Tiger.”

Props to GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, KELLY MACKAY, GORDON RANDALL and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Monday’s question: Who was HELEN (MA) ARMSTRONG and how is she connected to this date in Canadian history?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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