Europe in Moldova’s corner

May 31, 2023

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Greetings! Cristina Gallardo here, POLITICO’s foreign affairs and defense reporter in the U.K., where parliament is in recess and news has almost ground to a standstill as politicos head en masse to the mountains and beaches for the first sunny half-term holidays in a very long time.

EUROPE BACKS MOLDOVA

EUROPEAN POLITICAL SUMMIT: Leaders from 47 European countries have been invited to Chişinău, Moldova, for the second summit of the European Political Community taking place on Thursday. They are set to discuss three main topics: the war in Ukraine, energy resilience and climate change, and improving interconnections throughout Europe.

Refresher: The EPC is the brainchild of French President Emmanuel Macron. It was launched last year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as a gathering of Europe’s heads of government or state where they would discuss how to jointly confront the Continent’s biggest challenges. Crucially, it includes non-EU member states such as Britain and several Western Balkan nations — creating a chance for truly pan-European discussions.

Moldova’s opportunity: This is the first time the summit is taking place in a non-EU country and it’s a big deal for the former Soviet republic, as it fights to protect its democracy from Moscow-linked destabilization and join the EU. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu is expected to use the EPC summit to demand a faster accession to the EU.

What Britain wants: U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hopes to attract the attention of peers to the perennial Brexit issue of migration, with a view to boosting cooperation to stop irregular migrants crossing the Continent and then the English Channel. Countering Russian threats in Europe will also be high on the U.K.’s list of priorities for the summit. “It’s important that the message of support to Ukraine and Moldova is crystal clear,” a British official said, adding that while Ukraine is the front line of the war, Moldova is the “front line of a hybrid war.”

Don’t forget energy: Having managed to rejoin the North Sea Energy Cooperation platform on offshore wind in the first EPC summit, London wants to keep banging the drum for improving energy resilience in Europe, the official said (Britain was kicked out after Brexit).

The newbies: Three European microstates — Andorra, Monaco and San Marino — have joined the EPC since its first summit.

Not invited: Russia, Belarus and the Vatican.

Attendance guaranteed: Macron confirmed his participation in the summit. “I am sure that we need this forum to gather all the leaders and to build a stronger and more united Europe,” he said. Given that he masterminded the EPC, his remarks are hardly surprising.

Yet to be confirmed: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who did not attend the Prague summit, could steal the show if he appears in Chişinău — but as always with his agenda, his travel plans are very much TBC.

Not coming: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been reelected as Turkey’s president, will not travel to Moldova for the one-day summit, according to three officials involved in the preparations.

Bilateral marathon: What non-EU leaders appreciate most about the EPC summits, though, is the chance to engage in three hours of bilats with counterparts from the EU, which they do not get to do that often. That’s a considerable amount of time given that the whole summit lasts about five hours, including a short opening ceremony followed by four roundtables on topics such as energy, security, connectivity and mobility, a working lunch, and the bilats.

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DEBT CEILING DEAL VOTE

KEY DAY FOR U.S. DEBT CEILING DEAL: Negotiators from the Democratic and Republican parties in the U.S. finalized a debt ceiling deal on Sunday — which if approved by Congress later today would allow the U.S. federal government to borrow money until January 2025, well after the next presidential election in November 2024. For days, Speaker Kevin McCarthy said he could “get to yes” on House of Representatives’ passage of the cross-party agreement preventing the nation from defaulting on its $31.4 trillion in debt.

What the deal does: Besides that, the legislation would essentially freeze non-defense funding for the upcoming fiscal year while increasing defense funding by about 3.5 percent. White House officials have sought to address disappointment among progressive legislators, arguing the outcome could have been a lot worse.

Trouble ahead: The compromise requires the approval of the House of Representatives and Senate before June 5, when the U.S. could default. But a few far-right Republicans have floated the possibility of blocking the 99-page package from making it to the floor. Some conservatives argue the deal doesn’t go far enough to cut government spending or undermine Democratic legislation they disagree with, including a student loan forgiveness plan.

NATO CHIEF RACE

WALLACE IN THE FRAME? Britain’s Defense Secretary Ben Wallace, who’s recently hinted once again he might fancy becoming NATO’s next secretary-general, is “definitely a very strong candidate” for the job (if he formally stands), Estonia’s Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told a press conference Tuesday with his U.K. counterpart James Cleverly. He didn’t formally back him though.

Strong competition: Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas also sounds as a strong contender for the job, ticking various boxes from member states, including coming from a small country, having shown good leadership skills, representing a NATO ally spending more than 2 percent of GDP on defense, and being a woman.

She’s not the only one… Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has emerged as another serious candidate to lead NATO in the wake of an invitation to visit the White House next month.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

NORTH KOREAN SPY SATELLITE CRASHES: North Korea said today’s launch of its first space satellite, aimed at monitoring U.S. military activities, has been frustrated by an accident. The “Cheollima-1” satellite crashed into the West Sea of Korea, according to North Korea’s KCNA state news agency. South Korea recovered some of the debris and released pictures of wreckage found in the sea.

EU-US SEEK AI COORDINATION: U.S. and EU leaders are today expected to outline a more coordinated approach to generative AI during the second day of the EU-.U.S. Trade and Tech Council meeting, which kicked off Tuesday in the small industrial Swedish city of Luleå. The officials would be building on initial discussions between G7 countries and a realization that Brussels and Washington can do better at coordinating between themselves.

CHATGPT BOSS WANTS HQ IN EUROPE: Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, the maker of the artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT, spent last week touring Europe, scouting locations for an OpenAI European office. The eventual choice of its HQ location will determine which member country will oversee it when it comes to enforcing the EU’s upcoming Artificial Intelligence Act. Speaking to POLITICO in Paris, Altman said he had been “super-impressed” by the talent and energy in every country, but he would pick France if the decision was only made on the basis of the most AI research talent. Reuters reports, however, that Open AI might leave the EU if the AI Act proved too onerous — and the firm already has staff working in London and has created a U.K. subsidiary.

U.K. BACKS UKRAINE’S RIGHT TO ATTACK RUSSIA: British politicians are now a legitimate military target for Moscow, according to Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and deputy chair of the Russian Security Council. He hit back at remarks from British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, who on Tuesday said that Ukraine “has a right” to project force “beyond its own borders” after a series of drone strikes hit Moscow’s wealthiest neighborhoods, arguing Kyiv striking within Russia would “undermine” the Kremlin’s ability to continue its war in Ukraine. Cleverly’s remarks appear to be at odds with the U.S. position. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Tuesday that the U.S. does not support attacks inside of Russia. Ukraine has officially denied responsibility for the attack.

CANADIAN MP TOLD SHE’S ON CHINA’S TARGET LIST: A Canadian MP born in Hong Kong said Monday Canada’s top spy agency has warned her that Beijing has her marked as an “evergreen” political target due to her activism. New Democrat MP Jenny Kwan said he was informed by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service during a classified briefing last week that she’s a target for foreign interference by the Chinese government “and will continue to be a target.” She is the second Canadian lawmaker to go public about being targeted by China.

GLOBETROTTERS

MOVES

— Marie-Doha Besancenot, head of communications at Allianz France, is joining NATO soon as assistant secretary-general for public diplomacy.

— The U.K.’s industry lobby CBI said it will recruit a new president as part of a governance overhaul triggered by a series of sexual harassment and misconduct allegations. Its President Brian McBride, appointed last June, will remain in post until at least the end of this year.

— The Wagner Russian mercenary group has been using Twitter and Facebook to promote job vacancies, according to research first seen by POLITICO. The research found ads for dozens of roles had racked up 120,000 views over 10 months.

— Dina Powell McCormick has been named vice chairman and president of client services at BDT & MSD Partners, where one of her responsibilities will be expanding the merchant bank's relationships with sovereign-wealth funds. She currently is global head of sustainability and inclusive growth and global head of the sovereign business at Goldman Sachs and is a Trump and Bush administration alum.

BRAIN FOOD

Ukrainian mothers are traveling to Russia to get their kidnapped children back.

Thanks to editor Sanya Khetani-Shah and producer Sophie Gardner.

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