| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Ryan Lizza | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
| 
Conservatives are hopeful that the pair of cases currently before the justices will finally put the nail in the coffin of affirmative action. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THE NEW NORMAL? — WaPo: “Much of the United States felt like a blazing inferno on Wednesday, as record heat attacked the South like a blowtorch” … CNN: “More than third of the U.S. population is under air quality alerts, covering more than a dozen states from the Midwest to the East Coast” … Fox Weather: “Texas sets all-time power demand records as historic heat wave drags on” THE CENTRAL 2024 STORYLINE ON THE RIGHT — The story of the 2016 election was the rise of right-wing populism and a demographic realignment that reshaped politics. But that was then, and this is now. Heading into the 2024 election, there’s a “more consequential storyline,” JMart writes (from Berlin!) in a must-read new column: “not the strength of the populist right, but the weakness of the center-right.”
- Exhibit No. 1: “Speaker KEVIN McCARTHY’s response to [DONALD] TRUMP inviting three-dozen felonies? No, not an opening to break with someone who could be staring at prison time as the party’s nominee.”
- Exhibit No. 2: In the Senate, “Republicans are sticking with their long-running strategy: wishing Trump would go away. Their posture reminds me of the WILLIAM FAULKNER line … about how Southern boys are forever fantasizing it’s not yet 2 p.m. at Gettysburg in 1863, and the Confederates have yet to be repelled.”
- Exhibit No. 3: “The non-Trump Republican [2024] field today is a picture of the party’s fragmentation. It’s a mix of born-again Never Trumpers, those vowing to oppose him in the general election; Maybe Trumpers, those who would in fact like to beat him but don’t want to imperil their future viability within the system; and those clearly open for business with Trump, whether to secure a future appointment or because the wait is shorter to run again in 2028.”
In summation: “It’s forever somebody else or some other intervention that will finally break the party from its Trump spell. It was going to be his 2020 defeat, then it would surely be his conduct in the aftermath of the election and, okay this is really it, it has to be his role propelling lackluster candidates in last year’s midterms.” THE COMING SCOTUS DELUGE — For weeks, we’ve been waiting for the Supreme Court to finally announce its opinions in a number of major cases. Now, the moment has arrived. Maybe. There are two days left before the Supreme Court is scheduled to take its summer recess: today and tomorrow. True, the Court could kick the can down the road and give itself another week or two; that is not without precedent. But even if they do, it’s only a matter of time — possibly mere hours, but, at most, days — until big rulings crash down with the potential to remake both American life and the contours of the political battlefield. We have our eyes on three giant topics: — Affirmative action. This is an issue that has been going back and forth on the Supreme Court over the last five decades, but conservatives are hopeful that the pair of cases currently before the justices will finally put the nail in the coffin of affirmative action. The two cases offer different points of attack. One case (Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina) alleges that affirmative action policies violate the equal protection clause of the 14th Amendment. The other (Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard College) suggests that the private college’s use of race as a factor in admissions violates Title VI of the Civil Rights Act. If five of the six conservative judges stick together on this, it could be the end of colleges using race as a factor in admission. And depending on how tightly focused the opinion is, the justices’ decision could have an impact far outside of higher education. — Student loan forgiveness. The court has heard two different cases challenging President JOE BIDEN’s plan to forgive student loans, both challenging the Biden administration’s reliance on the post-9/11 HEROES Act as a pretext for student debt relief. In Biden v. Nebraska, six Republican state AGs are suing; the court hasn’t yet ruled on whether they have standing to sue. In Department of Education v. Brown, two individuals with student debt are suing, and here, too, there are questions about standing. In short: At question is whether the Supreme Court believes this was a proper exercise of executive power. More from WSJ — LGBTQ rights and the First Amendment. This case out of Colorado will answer whether a web designer has the right to refuse to create websites for same-sex weddings because she says it’s against her religion. Here, SCOTUS could set standards about what kind of businesses have to follow anti-discrimination laws. The biggest question: After more than a half-century of requiring businesses to do business with almost everyone (post-Civil Rights Act), how would the Court delineate this here without disturbing all those years of precedence? And would doing so reduce LGBTQ Americans to a sort of second-class citizenship? Good Thursday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
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Explore more possibilities with the metaverse. | | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Sabato’s Crystal Ball is out this morning with its first Electoral College rankings of the 2024 cycle, and Kyle Kondik gave us a sneak peek to share with Playbook readers. Their key projections:
- They identify just four true “toss-up” states: Arizona (11 electoral votes), Georgia (16), Nevada (6) and Wisconsin (10).
- Leans Republican: North Carolina (16) and Maine’s 2nd congressional district (1).
- Leans Democratic: Michigan (15), Pennsylvania (19) and New Hampshire (4).
If you combine the safe, likely and lean states for each respective party, Crystal Ball projects the Democrats have 260 electoral votes and the Republicans have 235. This campaign is wide open. More here TALKER — “DeSantis agency sent $92 million in covid relief funds to donor-backed project,” by WaPo’s Michael Scherer, Isaac Arnsdorf and Josh Dawsey: “The decision by the Florida Department of Transportation to use money from the 2021 American Rescue Plan for the I-95 interchange at Pioneer Trail Road near Daytona Beach fulfilled a years-long effort by MORI HOSSEINI, a politically connected housing developer who owns two large tracts of largely forested land abutting the planned interchange. … Government documents obtained by The Washington Post through open-records requests show a steady relationship between [Florida Gov. RON] DeSANTIS and Hosseini in recent years.” Backstory … DeSantis press secretary JEREMY REDFERN posted an prebuttal on Twitter last night, complete with extensive screenshots of email traffic with Scherer, in the latest instance of a conservative newsmaker front-running a critical story: “Overall, this story is a nothing-burger.” BIG NEWS IN WASHINGTON MEDIA — CBS News’ WEIJIA JIANG was elected to an at-large seat on the board of the White House Correspondents’ Association yesterday, and will serve as president of the WHCA in 2025-2026. (Full disclosure: Eugene is on the WHCA board, and will serve as president for the 2024-2025 term.) More results COMING SOON TO TWITTER — New Twitter CEO LINDA YACCARINO “is preparing a series of measures to bring back advertisers who had abandoned the platform under ELON MUSK’s ownership,” reports FT’s Hannah Murphy. Among those changes: “full-screen, sound-on video ads.”
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | | | BIDEN’S THURSDAY:
10 a.m.: The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief.
12:45 p.m.: Biden will depart the White House en route to New York City.
4 p.m.: Biden will sit for a live interview with MSNBC’s Nicole Wallace.
5:30 p.m.: Biden will participate in a campaign reception.
9:05 p.m.: Biden will depart NYC to return to the White House.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One en route to NYC.
VP KAMALA HARRIS’ THURSDAY (all times Eastern):
12:15 p.m.: The VP will depart D.C. en route to New Orleans.
3:45 p.m.: Harris will participate in a moderated discussion on the administration’s economic policies.
7:30 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign reception.
THE HOUSE and THE SENATE are out. | | | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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A destroyed truck lies next to a derailed Amtrak train in Moorpark, Calif., on Wednesday. | Dean Musgrove /The Orange County Register via AP | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | 2024 WATCH CASH DASH — The Biden campaign is trying to ramp up its cash collections as the first fundraising quarter comes to a close tomorrow, CNN’s Arlette Saenz, Kevin Liptak, Betsy Klein and Jasmine Wright report. Among its efforts: they’ve enlisted “former President BARACK OBAMA to tape a video with Biden to help drive small-dollar donations, CNN has learned, along with hosting a slew of down-to-the-wire, high-dollar fundraisers.” Related read: “Boosting the brand? Biden kicks off reelection message in Chicago with embrace of ‘Bidenomics’ tag,” by Chicago Sun-Times’ Tina Sfondeles WHAT NO LABELS HQ IS READING — “More Democrats than Republicans are open to a third-party presidential candidate,” by NBC’s Ben Kamisar ON WISCONSIN — In Wisconsin, the GOP primary between Trump and DeSantis is shaping up to be a tight competition — and the results may depend on whether or not the non-Trump primary field winnows away, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Bill Glauber writes, drawing from a new Marquette University Law School poll.
- The WI GOP primary with a full field: Trump at 31%, DeSantis at 30%, MIKE PENCE at 6%, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) at 5%, former South Carolina Gov. NIKKI HALEY and VIVEK RAMASWAMY at 3% each and former New Jersey Gov. CHRIS CHRISTIE at 1%.
- The WI GOP primary with head-to-head matchup: DeSantis beats Trump, 57% to 41%.
But Biden beats both men in general election matchups in the state, besting DeSantis, 49% to 47%, and beating Trump by 9 points, 52% to 43%. THE KENNEDY CONUNDRUM — ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. participated in a New Hampshire town hall last night with NewsNation, where the headline news was that he refused to pledge his support to the Democratic Party’s nominee in the general election. “Oh, of course I’m not gonna do that,” Kennedy told moderator Elizabeth Vargas. He added that his “plan is to win this election,” and said “I don’t have a Plan B.” Related read: “Kennedy, Condemning ‘Censorship,’ Hits Democrats and Courts the Disaffected,” by NYT’s Rebecca Davis O’Brien Poll position: “RFK Jr. is surging only in polls among Republicans,” analysis by WaPo’s Philip Bump The media angle: “The Media Is Reckoning With How to Cover RFK Jr.’s Presidential Run,” by Vanity Fair’s Charlotte Klein MORE POLITICS FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — The Main Street Partnership has rolled out a $500,000 ad buy for mailers in seven House districts in an effort to boost vulnerable Republicans ahead of next year’s elections. The boosted incumbents include Oregon’s LORI CHAVEZ-DeREMER, New York’s MIKE LAWLER, California’s YOUNG KIM, Nebraska’s DON BACON, Wisconsin’s BRYAN STEIL, South Dakota’s DUSTY JOHNSON and California’s DAVID VALADAO. Each of the mailers touts the Republicans’ aims to protect medicare, social security and benefits for veterans. See the Chavez-Deremer mailer … The Valadao mailer … The Johnson mailer … Watch an ad for Rep. MARIO DIAZ-BALART (R-Fla.) GO BIG SKY OR GO HOME — TIM SHEEHY, a former Navy SEAL running to unseat Montana Democratic Sen. JON TESTER, quickly picked up endorsements from four GOP senators, including Montana Sen. STEVE DAINES. The shows of support amount to a clear effort to keep Rep. MATT ROSENDALE (R-Mont.) out of the race, Ally Mutnick writes. But Rosendale has “privately told lawmakers he plans to make another run against Tester after failing to beat the incumbent five years ago,” Ally writes. “His lackluster fundraising and bruising past loss have left party strategists and donors nervous that Rosendale would struggle to win a general election in a state that is crucial to the GOP’s path to the majority.” CONGRESS OUTWIT, OUTPLAY, OUTLAST — KEVIN McCARTHY’s survival as speaker may well hinge on whether he accomplishes a single summertime task: Bridging the gap between his centrists and conservatives before government funding runs out. So far, it’s not looking promising, Sarah Ferris and Jordain Carney write this morning. “If the House GOP can’t complete their ambitious lineup of spending bills, it will mark a failure of one of McCarthy’s biggest promises during the speaker’s race,” the pair report. “And several Republicans are privately worried that they’re inevitably headed toward a high-drama government shutdown after the funding deadline Sept. 30.” EMPIRE STATE OF MIND — House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES is pushing hard to solidify his power over New York Dems after a disastrous election year that saw Republicans wipe them out in a number of upsets, CNN’s Edward-Isaac Dovere writes. The tactics: Dovere spoke with two dozen elected officials and operatives involved in Jeffries’ effort, and reports that “he’s hosting regular political brainstorming dinners in Washington with the Democrats in the state’s House delegation, deputizing several to oversee political operations down to the county level. He’s making his case personally to some of the biggest Democratic donors in the country. He’s personally traveling to swing congressional districts all around the state.” Related read: “Democrats to Use $20 Million Equal Rights Push to Aid 2024 N.Y. House Bids,” NYT’s Dana Rubinstein THE WRATH FOR KHAN — “GOP Lawmakers Accuse FTC Chair Khan of ‘Misleading’ Testimony,” by Bloomberg’s Emily Birnbaum and Leah Nylen
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | MEDIAWATCH TUCK EVERLASTING — TUCKER CARLSON is “raising capital to launch a new company that may yet prove more influential” than his current publishing home on Twitter, Puck’s Dylan Byers reports in his latest newsletter. “Tucker’s new media play might — if executed adroitly — serve as a paradigm for a generation of TV news personalities with huge followings and fandoms who remain marooned to their desks amid shrinking audiences.” END OF AN ERA — National Geographic has laid off all of its remaining staff writers, WaPo’s Paul Farhi reports. The 135-year-old magazine remains one of the most widely read in the nation, but faces major cuts instigated by its corporate parent, the Walt Disney Co. In another cost-cutting move, the magazine will no longer be sold on newsstands starting in 2024. THE BRAVE NEW WORLD — “Big News Publishers Look to Team Up to Address Impact of AI,” by WSJ’s Alexandra Bruell: “The possibility of such a group has been discussed among executives and lawyers at the New York Times, Wall Street Journal parent News Corp, Vox Media; Condé Nast parent Advance; Politico and Insider owner Axel Springer; and Dotdash Meredith parent IAC, the people said.” TRUMP CARDS SOURCES SAY — SUSIE WILES, a top Trump campaign hand, “is the individual singled out in [special counsel JACK] SMITH’s indictment as the ‘PAC Representative’ who Trump is alleged to have shown a classified map to in August or September of 2021,” ABC’s Katherine Faulders, John Santucci and Alexander Mallin report. “Trump, in the indictment, is alleged to have shown the classified map of an unidentified country to Wiles while discussing a military operation that Trump said ‘was not going well,’ while adding that he ‘should not be showing the map’ to her and ‘not to get too close.’” THE GEORGIA INVESTIGATION — “DOJ questions Raffensperger for Trump election probe,” by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Tamar Hallerman: “Few other details about the meeting were available late Wednesday, including how long the parties met for, what exactly they discussed or whether [BRAD] RAFFENSPERGER was subpoenaed or agreed to speak voluntarily.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD JUST POSTED — “Sanctioned Russian Cargo Ships Made More Than 100 Stops at Turkish Ports,” by WSJ’s Jared Malsin: “The port calls threaten to further inflame relations between the U.S. and Turkey, which is the only North Atlantic Treaty Organization member that hasn’t sanctioned the Kremlin, and has instead become a critical economic conduit for Russia.” REMEMBER THIS NEWS CYCLE? — “Chinese Balloon Used American Tech to Spy on Americans,” by WSJ’s Nancy Youssef: An analysis by several intelligence agencies “found the balloon was crammed with commercially available U.S. gear, some of it for sale online, and interspersed with more specialized Chinese sensors and other equipment to collect photos, video and other information to transmit to China, the officials said.” VISUAL EXPLAINER — “21 Miles of Obstacles,” by NYT’s Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Josh Holder and Marco Hernandez: “The Ukrainian counteroffensive faces an enemy nearly as daunting as the Russians: the terrain.” BEYOND THE BELTWAY CAUGHT IN THE CULTURE WARS — “Federal judges in Kentucky and Tennessee block portions of transgender youth care bans,” by AP’s Bruce Schreiner, Dylan Lovan and Kimberlee Kruesi THE WHITE HOUSE NO SLEEP TILL SCRANTON — “Biden Has Begun Using CPAP Machine to Aid With Sleep Apnea,” by Bloomberg’s Jennifer Jacobs and Jenny Leonard
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Michael Witmore is stepping down as director of the Folger Shakespeare Library in 2024. OUT AND ABOUT — Forbes Tate Partners held a Pride Month event at the office bar yesterday evening. SPOTTED: David Stacy, Jennifer Bailey, Kendall Kalustyan, Chanse Jones, Justin Peligri, Hugo Rojo, Andrew Freedman, Shanita Penny, Libby Greer, Tyler Roberts, Elizabeth Gonzalez and Alekhya Tallapaka. — Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Forum hosted a rooftop reception for House and Senate communicators and reporters yesterday evening. SPOTTED: J.P Freire, Karalee Geis, Kaily Grabemann, Stephanie Penn, Ty Bofferding, Eli Mansour, Savannah Viar, Greg Steele, Phoebe Ferraiolo, Anna Aamian and Natalie Yezbick. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Caroline Ciccone is now president at Accountable.US. She previously was deputy assistant secretary for public affairs in health care at HHS and is an OPM, SBA and DNC alum. TRANSITIONS — Cecilia Rouse will be president of Brookings. She currently is a Katzman-Ernst professor in economics and education at Princeton University and is a Biden White House alum. … Corey Noble is now comms director for Rep. Scott Franklin (R-Fla.). He previously was legislative assistant/press secretary for Rep. Bill Posey (R-Fla.) ... Ron Kovach is now comms director for Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Texas). He was previously press secretary with the Federation for American Immigration Reform. … … Anne Wakabayashi is now a VP at BerlinRosen. She previously was a media strategist at WIN Company. … Karla McKanders is joining the Thurgood Marshall Institute as director. She previously was a professor for critical race theory and immigration law at Vanderbilt University Law School. … Josh Caron is now VP of government affairs at M Financial. He previously was VP of federal affairs for the trade association Finseca. … Kelley Hudak is now director of federal relations at the American Petroleum Institute. She most recently was director of government affairs at Tyson Foods and is a Steve Scalise alum. HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Garrett Ross … Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.) (8-0) … White House’s Amish Shah … Laura Rozen … Josh Meyer … CNN’s Evan Pérez … Carl Forti … Ben Jarrett … Christina Pearson … Don Verrilli of Munger, Tolles & Olson … Robin Colwell of BGR Group … Max Virkus … Christian Marrone of WestExec Advisors … CMS’ Tony Salters … Jordan Davis … Tamera Luzzatto of Pew Charitable Trusts … Marie Policastro … The Hill’s Hanna Trudo … H&R Block’s Kaya Singleton … Gabriella Demczuk … Katie Zirkelbach … Vijay Menon of Sen. Josh Hawley’s (R-Mo.) office … Owen Kilmer … Kia’s Christopher Wenk … POLITICO’s Caitlin Bugas … former Rep. Collin Peterson (D-Minn.) … Alexa Newlin … Emily Spain … Ugonma Nwankwo of Global Counsel … Macon Phillips of Starling Strategy … Jennifer Pett Marsteller of the Independent Petroleum Association of America … BerlinRosen’s Cathy Rought … Adam Brauns … Brian Gabriel … Virginia Lottery’s Lee Jackson … Bobby Watson Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine. Corrections: Tuesday’s Playbook incorrectly reported Jeff Roe’s title with the Ron DeSantis super PAC. He is chief strategist. Yesterday’s Playbook misspelled Rick Hasen’s name.
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