Biden and Modi project G-20 unity as globalization frays

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Sep 05, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

With help from Doug Palmer, Camille Gijs and Barbara Moens

QUICK FIX

—  Joe Biden will join Narendra Modi in India for the Group of 20 nations summit this weekend, where the White House plans to push reforms to multilateral development institutions to counter China’s influence over emerging markets.

— European trade chiefs are getting anxious over the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency, as leading 2024 candidates from both parties capitalize on trade policy as a central tenet of their campaigns.

It’s Tuesday, Sept. 5. Welcome to Morning Trade! We’ve hit the ground running for one of the busiest weeks this year in the world of international trade. Hope y’all have stocked up on your caffeinated beverage of choice. Tell us what you did over Labor Day weekend or send us your trade news at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can also follow us on X: _arihawkins, @gavinbade and @tradereporter.

 

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Driving the day

FAULT LINES PLAGUE LEADERS SUMMIT: Biden will have a bilateral meeting this Friday with the Indian prime minister on the sidelines of the annual G-20 summit, the White House confirmed, as a diverse group of advanced and emerging economies seek to shore up engagement despite rising geopolitical friction on multiple fronts.

The Biden administration has remained tight-lipped about the details of the meeting, but the partners are likely to build upon a landmark trade defense pact announced this summer between General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics, a state-owned company in New Delhi.

There also could be progress on non-defense trade issues, Rick Rossow, chair in U.S.-India Policy Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told reporters last week.

The two sides resolved six outstanding WTO disputes when Modi visited the White House in June, but were unable to reach a deal on a seventh one involving Indian poultry market access barriers that the United States challenged back in 2012.

The discussion comes one day before the main G-20 summit, scheduled for Saturday and Sunday. The confab is expected to draw officials from dozens of countries and organizations, who will angle to enhance cooperation even as global fault lines deepen over the Russian invasion into Ukraine and Washington’s tech rivalry with Beijing.

No Biden-Xi meeting: Biden said he was “disappointed” that his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping would skip the G-20 summit, but added “I am going to see him” in response to a question from a reporter in Rehoboth Beach, Del., without elaborating.

Xi is expected at the APEC leaders summit that Biden is hosting in San Francisco in November, although Beijing still has not confirmed his attendance.

China’s foreign ministry did confirm Monday that Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the weekend summit in New Delhi in place of Xi. The country is facing an economic slowdown which has sparked concerns of a spillover into regional markets, and even the American economy.

In it for Washington: The American president wants to use his G-20 visit to present a “value proposition” to the developing world and to focus attention on the need to modernize the multilateral development banks, said national security adviser Jake Sullivan.

The IMF and the World Bank need to offer a better alternative to development support and financing than China’s “coercive and unsuitable” Belt and Road Initiative, Sullivan told reporters in a recent call.

Those efforts could be spearheaded by Janet Yellen, who announced she will attend the G-20 summit, and will focus on advancing multilateral development bank evolution, debt restructuring and the IMF’s Poverty Reduction and Growth Trust, Treasury said.

The treasury secretary will also “continue to rally” Washington’s partners to financially back Kyiv amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

And for India: The summit offers a chance for Modi to showcase the country’s global clout and potentially expand its influence over emerging markets. Indian officials are also insisting that a joint statement is in reach, per the Financial Times, even after China and Russia blocked earlier joint statements condemning Moscow’s invasion.

Vietnam partnership on tap: Biden will visit Vietnam on Sept. 10 after attending the New Delhi summit, and is poised to sign a strategic partnership with the country that could boost Vietnam's high tech sectors in semiconductors and artificial intelligence, Phelim Kine reports. The partnership is sure to irk China, which was Vietnam’s largest trading partner in 2022.

VP Harris in the fray: The vice president departed for Jakarta on Monday to attend the Southeast Asian leaders summit, where she will have to assuage doubts over the administration’s commitment to the region given the president’s absence, and navigate regional disputes and crisis in Myanmar.

NOAA FISHING REPORT TAGS CHINA, TAIWAN, MEXICO: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration last week identified seven economies — including China, Taiwan and Mexico — for suspected illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. The others were Angola, Grenada, The Gambia and Vanuatu.

The report, which is based on activities between 2020 and 2022, is NOAA’s first since WTO members reached an agreement last year to ban subsidies for IUU fishing. More than 60 more members still need to ratify the agreement for it to take effect. The NOAA report does not say whether any of the IUU fishing it identified is subsidized.

Forced labor: The NOAA report also said a number of Chinese and Taiwanese fishing vessels used forced labor, mostly migrant workers from Indonesia and the Philippines.

“The species and fisheries where forced labor is documented in [China’s] distant water fleet is broad, due to the sheer scale and number of geographies, and includes tuna and squid fisheries, both of which are imported to the United States,” the report said, using similar language to describe the situation in Taiwan’s distant water fleet.

Ongoing talks: WTO members are trying a more comprehensive agreement by the group’s 13th ministerial conference in February that would cut subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing. The United States has been pushing for a provision in that agreement to address concerns about forced labor in the ocean fishing sector.

TRADE AND THE GENERAL ELECTION

TRUMP RETURN STRIKES FEAR INTO BRUSSELS: The specter of a second term for Donald Trump is giving European trade chiefs terrifying flashbacks.

Why they’re freaking out: The 77-year-old real estate tycoon derides trade deficits as "losses" that export wealth to America's enemies and he’s already threatening a 10 percent, across-the-board import tariff if he wins election next year.

But long before then, Trump’s first-term trade policy could blow up again, potentially hitting European exports with billions of dollars in duties — in just eight weeks’ time.

Ticking time bomb: In 2018, Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum from the European Union. The Biden administration suspended the duties to allow the EU and U.S. to negotiate a compromise. Officials on both sides of the Atlantic are racing to reach an agreement ahead of an October target.

“It’s on everyone’s mind: what if the elections go the wrong way?” said one EU trade diplomat. One lawyer who advises corporate clients on European trade files said EU officials and business bosses were "frightened" by the thought of a Trump return.

Not just steel…: On top of the steel dispute, Brussels and Washington are also negotiating a critical minerals pact. Such a deal would allow EU mining and chemical companies to sell their products to U.S. battery manufacturers without the risk that electric vehicle tax credits foreseen under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act would be cut.

USTR TOUTS RECORD ON LABOR DAY: With Trump looking nearly unbeatable in his quest for the Republican presidential nomination, USTR Katherine Tai praised “Bidenomics” in a Labor Day statement on Monday that underscored the administration’s focus on catering to trade unions and workers, a potentially decisive voting bloc in the November 2024 election.

“At USTR, we are implementing a worker-centered trade policy, a stark change from past efforts, which prioritized corporate profits and low cost — at any cost — over the interests of workers and their livelihoods,” Tai said in the statement, which also touted Biden’s major legislative achievements such as the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

Mostly behind Biden: The 12.5 million-member AFL-CIO labor federation has already endorsed Biden for reelection next year. But at least two major union groups — the United Auto Workers and the United Steelworkers — have not yet announced their pick for 2024.

The UAW, which is currently engaged in high-profile national contract negotiations, has cited concerns over the electric vehicle transition as the reason for withholding its endorsement.

In contrast, Jess Kamm Broomell, a spokesperson for the Steelworkers, said the union simply has several more steps to complete before it’s ready to announce its decision.

“President Biden is a longtime friend of our union, and the USW applauds him for everything he’s accomplished on behalf of working families during his first term,” she said in an email.

WEEKLY NUMBER

That's the amount in American dollars that a new Southeast Asian trading framework could supposedly unlock in its digital economy by 2030, after the bloc launched negotiations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement, regional media reports. The move came one day ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris' visit and is another indication of the bloc's ability to cooperate as China suffers an economic slowdown that threatens to ripple across global   markets.

International Overnight

— Latin American officials express concerns over Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s striking amount of focus on the Western Hemisphere, Nahal Toosi reports.

— The Canadian government is escalating its fight with Washington over softwood lumber with a new challenge under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, and another filed with the U.S. Court of International Trade, Zi-Ann Lum reports. (For Pros!)

— Leaders from G-7 countries will meet as soon as November to approve joint efforts to set up guardrails around artificial intelligence, per a draft schedule, Mark Scott reports. (For Pros!)

— Japan announced a 20.7 billion yen ($141 million) emergency fund to help exporters hit by a ban on Japanese seafood imposed by China, AP reports.

— Huawei Technologies’ new smartphone is sparking worry that American sanctions have failed to throttle Beijing’s technological advance, The Washington Post reports.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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