ABOUT THAT INDO-PACIFIC STRATEGY … It seems so far in the rearview already now, since Parliament began its fall sitting with a bombshell announcement by Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU that shook up bilateral relations with India. One of the questions that’s left up in the air is what this all means for Canada’s vaunted Indo-Pacific Strategy. A “Team Canada” trade mission is planned for Japan in October, but Ottawa’s trade talks with India are on pause and Trade Minister MARY NG’s India trip was scrubbed. Trudeau said Thursday Canada is still pursuing closer ties with the country despite the allegations. — Back to the drawing board?: Canadian Global Affairs Institute Vice President COLIN ROBERTSON said India was seen as a prize trade target as companies look to de-risk from China. Now it’s not clear where it stands. “The poor Indo-Pacific strategy is in pretty bad shape when the relationships of the two biggest countries are deeply strained,” he told Playbook. “We're going to have to rethink this because you can't even get visas to go over.” — Only way out is through: Trudeau’s allegations in the House of Commons that Indian agents were potentially part of an effort to kill a Canadian set off a chain reaction of events that sent relations spiraling. “It's going to be hard, but I think the Indians are opening up to at least discussions, which is the only way I think we’re going to get through this,” Robertson said. — Better shape than it looks: “I don't think we need to rethink at all,” said JANICE STEIN, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs at U of T, who co-chaired Ottawa’s advisory committee on the much-vaunted strategy. She tells Playbook the issue of India’s concerns about support for Khalistan separatism has been a problem in bilateral Canadian-Indian relations for 40 years, and it’s not one that’s going away. “This is an enduring burr under the saddle of our relationship that is not going to go away, but ultimately will not consume it. You have to think that Air India was worse than this.” — Waiting game: In the long term, Stein said this won’t derail partnerships in the works. Short term, visas ended. The trade mission is off the books, Playbook points out. “Off the books for now,” she replies. “The question: for how long? The visa issue — I think it may well be several months. But that's short in the history of this relationship.” So many Indians have family members who want to come to Canada, and so many Canadians who were born in India want to go home and see their families. Not to mention business communities and capital flow. “The pressure will come from inside India to relax those restrictions,” she said. — Another plus: A significant part of the intelligence allegedly linking India to the Sikh activist’s death came from outside Canada. “The United States clearly is investing a great deal of effort in India as part of its Indo-Pacific strategy. It's not going to allow this to derail that strategy.” — A long off-ramp: Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI is in an election year. “We have to wait out the election period and understand pre-election and election politics, just as we understand them in our own country.” — Pressure points: On top of travel warnings and the freeze on trade talks, Canada was also in the middle of renegotiating an agreement on pulse exports with India. “That's a very important export for Canada. India is a big buyer of Canadian pulses.” China started a trade spat over canola in 2019 during the dispute over the detentions of Huawei's MENG WANZHOU and the “Two Michaels.” But then Canada still exported to other countries, who exported to China with a markup. “The issue with canola we had with China was ultimately resolved. So, we need to let tempers cool. We have good friends who are good friends of India, and they will do some of the work for us here.” Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! | 
