APPOINTMENT VIEWING — When California Governor Gavin Newsom named Laphonza Butler to the late Dianne Feinstein’s open Senate seat on Sunday, he made a historic selection — and sparked a new set of questions for voters. Chief among them is whether Butler intends to run for the seat already contested by Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff, Barbara Lee and Katie Porter. Butler is a longtime power player in California politics, first as a union organizer and then as a consultant and as the president of EMILY’s List, a powerful political action committee aimed at electing female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights. Newsom decided not to name any of the three candidates currently in the race, not wanting to tip the scales for any of them — though Lee fit Newsom’s 2021 promise to nominate a Black woman to Feinstein’s seat if he got the chance. Still, Newsom’s adviser Anthony York told POLITICO that there are no preconditions on Butler’s appointment; she hasn’t promised not to run in 2024. If she decides to seek a full term, she could further scramble an already tight race. Californians will now vote four times for Senate in 2024 — for the remainder of Feinstein’s term in primary and general special elections, as well as in the primary and general election for a full term that begins in 2025. With three existing big name Democratic candidates already in the race, it makes for a complicated situation. To get a better sense of the state of play in California and the political implications of Butler’s nomination, we spoke with the person who broke the news of the appointment, POLITICO’s California Bureau Chief Christopher Cadelago. This conversation has been edited. How does Laphonza Butler’s appointment affect the 2024 race to fill Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat? A lot of this will depend on whether Butler decides to run. I’m told she’s genuinely torn over the decision — and for good reason. The other candidates have been running for months, have political networks of their own and have amassed large warchests, particularly in the cases of Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. In the short-term, Newsom’s appointment of Butler is a major blow, to say the least, to Rep. Barbara Lee. While Lee and Newsom were not personally close, she put a huge amount of stock in winning this appointment, only to criticize Newsom’s comments before Feinstein died about not wanting to pick an interim senator. Lee was never a lock to get this appointment. But blowing up Newsom was the worst thing she could have done. The timing for her was terrible. Lee’s allies were still advocating for her appointment — was it those specific comments that certainly sunk her chances? And just how much does not getting the appointment hurt her, given that she’s also lagging behind in raising money? Lee’s allies were trying to do a few things: Pressure Newsom publicly through groups like the Congressional Black Caucus to choose Lee, particularly after Feinstein’s death on Thursday. Work allies — particularly Black women — to try and get them to turn Newsom down in the event he turned to them for the appointment. And, try to work Newsom with a lighter touch. In the end, none of it mattered. He wasn’t going to pick Lee. It’s notable, like you mentioned, that Butler is considering running, and also that Newsom didn’t appear to ask her to publicly commit to not doing so. How specifically would a Butler run scramble the race? Butler has the chance to cut a very dynamic profile in the Senate. She’s California’s first openly gay senator — and the Senate’s first openly gay person of color. Butler’s nearly two decades working in the trenches of organized labor (before becoming a political consultant and the president of EMILY’s List) gives her a real opportunity to speak to the economic anxieties people are facing. There are few members of Congress from the coasts with the history and standing to be a messenger on this. In addition, as Newsom said, Butler also brings credibility when it comes to speaking out against what he calls the “rights regression” and other issues like voting rights. And she’s also been a player in California politics for a long time. What are her connections with the other three big name candidates? Butler has worked very closely with nearly every political figure of note in California, either through her labor role or later as a consultant. I’ve talked to folks connected with Lee who say Butler was helping her campaign a bit. EMILY’s List backed Porter in her prior House race, and she drew praise from Butler. But the group also backed a candidate running against Porter’s endorsed pick in the race for the House seat she is vacating, which is currently a toss-up. And in terms of Newsom, do his assumed national political aspirations factor into his choice of Butler? How so? The governor can’t blink without someone analyzing how it might play in 2028, let alone 2024. So you better believe that this Senate appointment — one he really didn’t want to make — is being viewed through a political prism. First, Newsom had pledged to choose a Black woman, after picking Alex Padilla to succeed Kamala Harris. Then, more recently, he said he wouldn’t pick Lee because he didn’t want to tip the scales. He also suggested that his pick would be a temporary senator. That opened the door for criticism of him that he was going to pick a Black woman, but only as a short-timer. And although Newsom didn’t use the word himself, Lee accused him of wanting a “caretaker” for the seat. That didn’t sit well with her allies and some progressives, who said the governor’s remarks would someday be remembered in early primary presidential states like South Carolina. To get himself out of that jam, Newsom’s team spent the weekend making clear that he was putting no preconditions on the pick and that they were free to run in 2024 if they wanted. Politically, Butler is a shrewd choice. And if we can zoom out some more, Newsom’s appointments more broadly have been historic, and reflect the changing demographics of California: Padilla, the Latino son of a short-order cook and a housekeeper; Attorney General Rob Bonta, the first person of Filipino descent to hold the post whose parents organized farmworkers; Secretary of State Shirley Weber, a career academic and the daughter of a sharecropper from a town called Hope, Ark., and now Butler. He’s helped remake the Democratic bench in the state — and very much not in his own image. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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